17 January 2008

So the 787 is going to be late....

That as your humble writer is not new news. But there are some subtle issues that Boeing has finally come clean about.

The biggest decision is to wait before making a decision on the production start up, ramp speed and full production dates.

The decision for production and setting a date is going to be much later - don't expect this until late Q3 at the earliest. Our betting is that first deliveries wont be until Q2 in 2009. We are projecting about 40-50 deliveries in the first year. Well below the 109 Boeing originally projected.

We are all going to see a much chastened Boeing for a while. They have yet to get things right. The issues now remain:

The supply chain is not yet ready. Already some of the supply chain partners are saying that they will not be able to meet Boeing's targets.

The design is "soft" frozen. Boeing doesn't as yet have a full set of plans to work with. If all the pieces had been delivered as envisaged then this would not have been too much of an issue in delivering Aircraft 1 for flight testing. However now Boeing has had to take back control of certain sections (remember the Italians!) they need the full documentation and guess what... they don't have it all... So the "Traveling Work" is both more complex and time consuming than was allowed for.

Oh yes and Rolls has a problem with Fuel burn. They are still 2%+ off targets.

At least Boeing is (kinda) coming clean on these issues. There are others. There is no clear path out of here. Let's hope Pat Shanahan and his crew are left alone to do their job. His 90 day honeymoon is well and truly over.

My admonishment is the same... take the time.

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