15 September 2008

The financial fall out could hit the airframe business

Call me an old cynic but I think we are going to see some major fall out from the current Wall Street calamities.

One of the next victims is likely to be AIG. Whether AIG survives or not is still in question. But its an almost certainty that its aircraft portfolio will move to a new home. I am talking about ILFC.

If I was a betting man (and I am not) I would put odds that right now the phone lines are burning up between the UAE and New York with an occasional 3 way call to include that nice building in Century City, California.

There are opportunities galore for bargain hunters from around the globe to pick at the bones of the carcass of Wall Street. Aviation is going to be a big one here. If DAC (Dubai Aerospace Corp) doesn't make a bid for ILFC - I will be surprised. They are one of the few groups who do not have liquidity issues and yet have an uncomplicated process for fast track decision making.

If DAC or another oil/property backed entity doesn't take a run at ILFC, then I fear a more conventional management and board will impose a tightening on the portfolio strings of the world's largest aircraft leasing company. The ripple out effect on the relatively loose market for airliners would then change. This could see a big collapse in the orders backlog at both Boeing and Airbus.

I hope someone is paying attention

No comments: