17 September 2008

So which 2009 Forecast do you believe?

We have been looking at different 2009 forecasts for airline passenger traffic. Not giving away the whole store here but if we look at the 3 conventional reporters - their numbers are all over the map.

So here are the numbers as publicly reported:

IATA - +2.9%
Innovata (not reporting)
Air4Casts - +2.0%
OAG - Capacity Minus 7% for 2008Q4 and thereafter growth limited in 2009.

So far we are seeing greater numbers of losses for Q4 than are predicted here. We are predicting a loss of passengers originating in the USA market to exceed 10%, Europe/EMEA also down 6% and Asia Pacific flat. Based on Y/Y 2008 vs 2007

Remember that our numbers are based on passengers not RPKs/RPMs.

We really hope our numbers are overly pessimistic.


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