03 January 2009

IATA's prognostications for 2009

So we now have the formal view on 2009 from the venerable IATA. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA),the world's airlines are expected to lose US$2.5 billion in 2009.

Forecast highlights are:
Industry revenues are expected to decline to US$501 billion. This a fall of US$35 billion from the US$536 billion in revenues forecasted for 2008. This drop in revenues is the first since the two consecutive years of decline in 2001 and 2002.

Yields will decline by 3.0 percent (5.3 percent when adjusted for exchange rates and inflation). Passenger traffic is expected to decline by 3 percent following growth of 2 percent in 2008. Cargo traffic is expected to decline by 5 percent, following a drop of 1.5 percent in 2008.

On the day when the oil industry celebrated the anniversary of the first time Oil passed $100/pp level, IATA predicts a 2009 oil price to average US$60 per barrel for a total bill of US$142 billion. This is US$32 billion lower than in 2008 when oil averaged US$100 per barrel (Brent).

Hmmm I think IATA has the price of Oil wrong. I will stick with Boeing's estimate of $80ppl as the average - however with a depressed first half I will lower it to between $70-$75. Anyone want to take my bet?


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