19 December 2009

Down To The Wire - JAL's Dancing Partner

The stakes are getting higher - JAL needs a dancing partner. Does the blushing but somewhat older mature (potential) bride go with the newly enriched king or the prince of the neighboring land she has known for so long?

I have opined already on the two potentials - AA and now being assisted by TPG or Delta and the rest of the Skyteam players particularly Air France/KLM.

I think the nod goes to the Atlanta Good Old Boys rather than the Texas Mafia. My reasoning is not based on any insider knowledge other than an assessment of the situation. Delta has more to gain the American has to lose. Although at this point there is a big loser here. OneWorld as an alliance.

American rather weakly offered to up the ante last week with saying that JAL would be its only Far Eastern partner. That was rather stating the obvious since most of the rest are already taken by either Star or Skyteam. But significantly it doesn't improve matters for JAL who needs a lot of help and indeed new feed to boost its flagging fortunes. So in fact in my opinion this was a negative not a positive.

In the mean time - JAL's position continues to deteriorate. So the decision is getting more and more urgent.

This one is far from over but I do think that the choice is become a lot clearer.

Cheers

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