Boeing is likely to postpone its all new 737 Replacement aircraft perhaps until the well into the 2020's. In 2008 it was reported that the date had been pushed back into at the earliest 2015. In May last year Scott Carson said "We're continuing our research effort until we find the right solution," he added "It has to be a 25-year product."
Instead it is starting to seriously examine another kick on the existing platform. So based on this the Professor is going to speculate a little on the possible future final boost to the now venerable 737 line.
The overall improvement will be of the order 5-10% improvement in performance both in noise reduction, fuel improvement and greeness. We might get a slight boost in capacity with another look at expanding the fuselage also.
So what will the upgrade look like technically.
First the final stretch will be 2 small small plugs of about 10 feet each before and after the wing to keep the same basic flight performance characteristics. A bit bigger is also possible indeed there is a need to do this. There is a current gap in the Boeing product line with nothing between the 737-900 and the 787-3/8 models (assuming that the 767 300 will be allowed to sunset gracefully). We might see a 737 exceed the 155 feet length of the 757-200. The beefed up wing of the 737-900ER can be goosed just a little with a new set of wing tips a la 787 and 747i.
The engines may be a variant of the new PW1000G with a little boost to match the requirements of the heavier airframe and weight needs. The GEnx and the Current family of RR Trent based family wouldn't meet the same requirements. So Boeing is dependent on at least another competitor emerging and then it would have to deal with a decision to have one or more engines on the newer airframe. As is often the case here economics and deals may best efficiency etc. (Given the early wins by P&W with the Pure Power series engines - we can be sure that the lights are burning in Derby and Franco-American labs. The biggest impediment to all of this is the undercarriage configuration. The current 61 inch fan diameter is too restrictive for the bigger version of the PW1000G so a new more powerful version with a smaller diameter fan with performance in the 24-29K would be required. The biggest impediment to all of this is the undercarriage configuration so look for a slightly higher aircraft probably as much as 6 inches. The other candidate is the so-called LeapX from CFM.
Fuel performance would improve by as much as 8% in comparative terms and a further 2-3 percent might be gained from the new wing tips and perhaps a modified aerofoil. heck we might even see a shark tail and a new more slippery nose but I doubt anything more exotic than that. We would also expect a new glass cockpit - again borrowed from the 787. A new FMS would also contribute to more and better performance.
In the cabin there would be nothing much changed other than perhaps the addition of the PPG Aerospace dimmable windows. Greater use of composites on certain equipment parts will contribute to a weight reduction of between 1-2% overall. However these will be replacements for Aluminium panels rather than anything more radical.
One thing that will be interesting will be the introduction of these pieces. Rather than a full blown new model type - we will see perhaps several implementations of these enhancements with first an improvement in the current 700 and 800 and 900 length ships with the new engines before the -1000 model which will be longer. Much of this depends on Boeing's competitive position between the 767-300 and the small A330-200. If the latter continues to dominate and take significant numbers of orders then look for an earlier implementation.
One big issue to be resolved will be where the ships get built. The land in Renton is getting more and more valuable for shopping (The Landings is now looking pretty full). Building a brand new factory in Everett would be somewhat tough and so that presents problems. Nope - I think the new planes will continue to come out of Renton and the now 3rd line (for the US Navy) could be reconfigured once the P8s major production is ended and that could form the basis for the new initial line.
When will we see these new ships? Probably 2014-16. Rest assured a certain Hungarian born gentlemen has already been briefed and is already demanding it sooner than Boeing wants to deliver it.
Isn't it fun to speculate. If anyone wants to slip me more factual information - then please feel free.
In the near future I will also speculate on the A320 upgrade.
Cheers
PS - since this original post - I should have checked with the FlightBlogger Team and Scott Hamilton who have some additional points; go here and have a look.
Cheers
Timothy
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flightblogger/2008/12/introducing-the-boeing-737-re-.html
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