Singapore Airlines vs. Cathay Pacific: July 2025 – Two Asian Heavyweights, Two Very Different Games
The July traffic numbers are in, and both Singapore Airlines (SIA Group) and Cathay Pacific are reporting healthy summer peaks. But rather than cheerleading for either side, let’s look at the numbers and ask: who’s really executing better, and where do the risks lie?
Passenger Demand: Both Full, But Context Differs
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SIA Group PLF: 88.5% (SIA 87.4%, Scoot 92.2%), up nearly 3ppts y/y.
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Cathay PLF: 85.9%, up 0.4ppts y/y, essentially back to pre-COVID levels.
Both airlines are filling seats. SIA is doing it consistently across the year. Cathay’s July rebound looks strong, but the improvement is partly because of a low base — Hong Kong’s borders stayed shut far longer than Singapore’s.
Verdict: SIA is steady, Cathay is catching up. Both are full, but one is cruising, the other accelerating.
Capacity vs. Traffic Growth
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SIA: ASK +2.8%, RPK +6.2% — demand outpacing supply, the “sweet spot” for margins.
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Cathay: ASK +29.6%, RPK +30.3% — impressive but essentially a restart exercise, only 84% of 2019 levels.
Verdict: SIA is fine-tuning capacity, Cathay is rebuilding capacity. One is balancing, the other still reconstructing.
Passengers Carried: Scale vs. Growth
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SIA Group: 3.5m passengers in July (+9.7% y/y).
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Cathay: 2.4m passengers (+24% y/y).
SIA wins on size; Cathay on growth rate. But the higher CX growth rate is catch-up rather than expansion.
Verdict: SIA = scale and maturity; Cathay = speed of rebound.
Low-Cost Carriers: The LCC Divide
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Scoot (SIA): 92.2% PLF in July, one of the highest anywhere.
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HK Express (Cathay): 75.7% PLF in July (-15.7ppts y/y), mainly due to weak Japan demand.
SIA rationalized Scoot early and integrated it into the group strategy. Cathay dragged its feet with Dragonair → HK Express.
Verdict: SIA has a functioning LCC engine, Cathay has an LCC headache.
Cargo: Both Strong, Both Vulnerable
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SIA Cargo: Load factor 57.1% (+2.1ppts y/y). Demand steady but partly front-loaded as shippers hedge against trade tensions.
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Cathay Cargo: Tonnage +10.5% y/y, RFTK +11.1%, though CLF slipped to 58.2% (-0.1ppt y/y). Freight rates still down ~7% y/y.
Verdict: Both carriers are holding cargo steady in a fragile market. SIA is stable, Cathay is regaining ground.
Regional Dynamics: Diversification vs. Concentration
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SIA: Growth led by East Asia, the Americas finally improving, Europe weak.
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Cathay: Big exposure to China flows — a blessing if China booms, a curse if it stalls. Strong leisure demand to Korea and Southeast Asia in July.
Verdict: SIA has a more balanced portfolio; Cathay’s upside is higher but tethered to China’s health.
Financial Pressures: Similar Storms, Different Exposures
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SIA: Yields tapering, fuel relief helping, wage inflation in Singapore biting.
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Cathay: Yields easing too, fuel relief also helps, restart costs from mothballing a network still weighing.
Verdict: Both are margin-squeezed. SIA has steadier cost management, Cathay has higher restart drag but more upside from China.
Head-to-Head Snapshot (July 2025)
|
Metric |
SIA Group |
Cathay Pacific |
|---|---|---|
|
PLF |
88.5% |
85.9% |
|
Passengers |
3.5m (+9.7% y/y) |
2.4m (+24% y/y) |
|
7M25 PLF |
86.3% |
~84–85% |
|
ASK Growth |
+2.8% |
+29.6% (84% of 2019) |
|
RPK Growth |
+6.2% |
+30.3% (84% of 2019) |
|
LCC PLF |
Scoot 92.2% |
HK Express 75.7% |
|
Cargo |
57.1% (+2.1%) |
58.2% (-0.1ppt) |
|
Strengths |
Balanced network, Scoot performance |
Growth momentum, China leverage |
|
Weaknesses |
Europe drag, wage costs |
Over-reliant on China, weak LCC arm |
Final Take: Two Carriers, Two Strategies
Both SIA and Cathay can point to wins in July. SIA is the steady hand — consistent load factors, disciplined capacity, Scoot firing. Its challenge is defending yields in Europe and coping with Singapore’s rising costs.
Cathay is the big swing — rapid recovery, market share gains at HKIA, strong upside if China sustains demand. But it remains more volatile, with HK Express dragging and cargo rates still under pressure.
Objective comparison:
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If you want predictability and proven execution → SIA.
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If you want leverage on a China rebound → Cathay.
Both are flying high again. The difference is whether you prefer the sure path forward, or the risky bet with bigger potential upside.
Source List (July 2025 Data)
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Singapore Airlines Investor Relations – July 2025 Operating Results
https://www.singaporeair.com/en_UK/sg/investor-relations/financial-results/operating-results/
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Cathay Pacific Investor Relations – July 2025 Traffic Figures
https://www.cathaypacific.com/cx/en_HK/investor-relations/traffic-figures.html
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IATA Economics – Air Passenger Market Analysis (Monthly)
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CAPA – Centre for Aviation, Asia Pacific Airline Traffic and Cargo Commentary
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Bloomberg Airline Sector Updates (paywall)
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Reuters Airline & Cargo Market Coverage
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TAC Index – Hong Kong Outbound Freight Rate Trends
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