THIS IS THE EXPANDED VERSION OF THE LINKED IN POST ON THE TOPIC OF COMPARING THE CMO AND THE GMF FROM BOEING AND AIRBUS RESPECTIVELY
Analysis Summary
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Both Boeing and Airbus forecasts from ∼10 years ago slightly underestimated demand, often due to unforeseen growth—especially after global events or emerging-market acceleration.
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Boeing’s conservatism produces ~10–15% lower demand forecasts in volume, but its aircraft sizing predictions are accurate.
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Airbus’s multi-flow, model-based approach yields forecasts tightly aligned with Boeing’s in CAGR and delivery breakdown (slightly lower in volume).
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By the decade in, both maintained credibility: Boeing emphasizes “industry standard,” Airbus continues using refined modeling.
High-Level Comparisons
|
Aspect |
Boeing |
Airbus |
Embraer |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Forecast Period |
2025–2044 (20 years) |
2025–2044 (20 years) |
2025–2044 (20 years), sub‑150 seats only |
|
Total Aircraft |
43,600 demand estimate |
43,420 total new passenger & freighter |
10,500 regional jets/turboprops |
|
Annual Growth |
~3.1%–3.7% fleet growth CAGR |
3.6% passenger traffic growth |
Focused on regional connectivity |
|
Geographic Drivers |
China & S/SE Asia for growth |
Urbanization, global middle class, GDP |
N. America + Asia-Pacific regional markets |
|
Segment Focus |
Single-aisle (33,300+), wid EB |
Single, widebody, freighter mix |
Small jets (<150 seats) and turboprops |
Similarity: All three projects expect strong growth driven by global GDP, expanding middle classes, and emerging markets. Each aligns on the next 20‑year horizon.
Differing Emphases:
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Boeing highlights single-aisle dominance but trimmed its estimates slightly—43,600 vs last year’s 43,975—reflecting cautious tone .
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Airbus anchors its growth projections more strongly in demographic and GDP drivers, estimating 43,420 new deliveries—specifying ~34,250 single-aisles, 9,170 wide‑bodies .
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Embraer zeros in on the regional, sub‑150 seat market—10,500 jets/turboprops—and stresses connectivity, flexibility and environmental priorities .
Unique Highlights & Quirky Anomalies
Boeing
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Refined Forecast: Trimmed traffic growth from 4.7% to 4.2%, global GDP from 2.6% to 2.3%, reflecting turbulence in trade and supply chains .
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Production Bottlenecks: Persistent shortage of 1,500–2,000 aircraft in delivery backlog due to post‑COVID production issues .
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Emerging Market Rebound: Resumption of deliveries to China (formerly 10% backlog) expected June 2025 .
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Share Impact: Short-term stock drag after Air India 787 crash, yet long-term outlook supports aerospace suppliers like GE Aerospace .
Airbus
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Precise Mix: Breaks down demand to ~34,250 single aisles, 9,170 widebodies in next 20 years .
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Driver-Centric: Frames growth through lenses of +2.5% GDP, +1.2 bn urban population, +1.5 bn middle class .
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Regional Insight: Noted 4.1% traffic growth in Africa and requirement for ~15,000 pilots, 20,000 technicians, and 24,000 cabin crew in Africa alone .
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Services Market: Predicts aircraft services will double by 2041, driven by digital, remote, and environmental demands .
Quirky takeaway: “Crew crunch in Africa: Airbus sees massive support-hiring as a strategic opportunity.”
Embraer
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Smaller Scale: Sole focus on 10,500 sub-150 seat jets & turboprops—broken down into 8,720 jets and 1,780 turboprops .
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Connectivity Edge: Emphasizes role of regional jets in high‑frequency routes and environmental flexibility .
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Regional Growth Split: Asia Pacific leads jet deliveries, North America leads turboprops, and jet share will be 39% Asia Pacific by 2044 .
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Turboprop Market: Embraer anticipates 2,260 turboprops demand for its next-generation turboprop series—an in-house focus on E‑Freighter and TPNG lines .
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Paris Airshow Momentum: Reinforced demand via SkyWest order (60 E175), Lithuanian defense KC‑390 selection and cargo freighter push .
Here’s a refined analysis of how accurate the 10‑year‑ago market outlooks from Boeing and Airbus have been:
Boeing’s Forecast Accuracy
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2000–2009 Retrospective: Boeing noted that its early-2000s forecasts for 2009 traffic and aircraft demand were conservative, underestimating actual market demand by 10–15%, though their segmentation (by aircraft size) was “admirably accurate” .
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2012–2011 Fleet Comparisons: Independent visual comparisons suggest Boeing’s published fleet forecasts tracked closely with real-world growth trends through 2011, showing solid qualitative performance .
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Reaffirmed Accuracy: By 2019–2020, Boeing emphasized their forecast’s reliability, calling it an enduring industry standard for combining structural and market dynamics .
Takeaway: Boeing’s forecasts tend to underestimate demand slightly, erring on the side of conservatism—typically 10–15% low in aggregate volume—but get market segmentation (e.g. single- vs wide-body share) spot-on.
Airbus’s Forecast Accuracy
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GMF 2015 vs Actual Data: Airbus forecasted ~32,600 new aircraft deliveries from 2015–2034 (22,900 single-aisle; ~8,100 twin-aisle; ~1,550 very large) and a 4.6% annual RPK growth .
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Both Airbus and Boeing used comparable growth methodologies; one EU analysis projected Boeing would forecast ~15% more fleet growth than Airbus’s ~4.6% CAGR over the 20-year period—close alignment on methodology but slight volume difference .
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Airbus employs multi-model methodologies across ~70 traffic flows to improve validity .
Takeaway: Airbus forecasts have been similarly slightly conservative, but align closely with Boeing on annual RPK growth rates (~4.6–4.9%) and overall fleet expansion. Their multi-model, flow-level modeling approach helps refine their estimates.
