From our May 7th Blog entry:
"The Flying Kangeroo is somewhat therefore in limbo. The senior management find themselves in a quandry because unless APA or either partner makes a bid very soon - then at least the Chairwoman's head must roll."
From todays ATW News"
"....At the same time, Chairman Margaret Jackson, who backed APA's effort, reportedly announced her intention not to seek reelection at November's annual meeting."
Chaps get real here - the deal was dodgy at best and TPG does not have enough bandwidth to go after all of these deals at the same time when there are so many other "worthy" causes closer to home with greater value.
So the Kangeroo continues to fly solo. As it should in our humble opinion.
Cheers
Timothy
17 May 2007
GDS 3.1 - The model evolves
The news that Southwest is going back into Galileo will probably send shockwaves around the globe. But as the smoke clears we can start to evaluate some of the realities of the situation.
GDS need new content to remain relevant. They face attack from all sides: Falling Yields, bypass, deregulation, consolidation, etc etc. Over the last 5 years according to figures from ASTA, Travel Agents in the USA have lowered their use of GDS from effectively 100% down to just over 80%. This fall is likely to accelerate as the GNEs come online and as the incentive payments dip. At the same time US agents have increasingly started to use Supplier direct websites. That Gordian knot seems to have been broken and the fragmentation trend continues.
At T2 we believe that this is a natural evolution. We believe that the fundamental forces are going to continue to drive diversity in the GDS – definitely we see that there will be less homogenization of the GDS players.
Southwest is interesting at this juncture. You may ask why did they choose Travelport/Galileo now and what was their rationale. We believe that the deal has been in the works for some time. There were some not inconsiderable technical hurdles to overcome but the writing on the wall has been there for quite some time. SHHHHH don’t say anything to anyone but Southwest is beginning to reach Saturation with the current model. For the past 6 months or so – Southwest has been sounding more and more like a network carrier. In reality it is reaching the HVC – Hybrid Value Carrier model we have been predicting for some time. With the true LCC model just about played out for Southwest – there is no where else to go but – well up. Thus they need to expand their distribution and their model. Thus Galileo fits nicely. Why? They are already available in Sabre but Galileo represents a black hole. Thus the opportunity to reach the #2 corporate agency booking system makes perfect sense. Don’t be surprised if the work does not stop here. Look for GNEs to appear soon with that capability. SWABiz has not been a massive success and the efforts behind it seem to have been somewhat half hearted. The final catalyst has probably been two key factors – both competitive in nature. Firstly the US domestic market is already showing signs of weakness. Just last week WN reported having to revisit its projections for 2008. Secondly jetBlue has shown a remarkable uptick in sales as a result of going back into the GDS. WN cannot afford to ignore these facts.
But why not Amadeus? Simple – Amadeus in the USA is a Leisure system- that is well handled by the direct website. However herein lies a message for the other Hybrid Value Carriers. In other markets HVCs are now eyeing the situation of saturation or at least parity with network carriers and looking for ways to be fully competitive. I think the floodgates could open when Easyjet and Air Berlin look back at being in the GDS. But here is some hope for Amadeus North America – since it has none of the “evil” OTAs on its system here – it may just be OK for Southwest. And Worldspan? By the time the system is ready WSP will be owned by Travelport so the issue is somewhat moot – at least commercially.
Cheers
Timothy
GDS need new content to remain relevant. They face attack from all sides: Falling Yields, bypass, deregulation, consolidation, etc etc. Over the last 5 years according to figures from ASTA, Travel Agents in the USA have lowered their use of GDS from effectively 100% down to just over 80%. This fall is likely to accelerate as the GNEs come online and as the incentive payments dip. At the same time US agents have increasingly started to use Supplier direct websites. That Gordian knot seems to have been broken and the fragmentation trend continues.
At T2 we believe that this is a natural evolution. We believe that the fundamental forces are going to continue to drive diversity in the GDS – definitely we see that there will be less homogenization of the GDS players.
Southwest is interesting at this juncture. You may ask why did they choose Travelport/Galileo now and what was their rationale. We believe that the deal has been in the works for some time. There were some not inconsiderable technical hurdles to overcome but the writing on the wall has been there for quite some time. SHHHHH don’t say anything to anyone but Southwest is beginning to reach Saturation with the current model. For the past 6 months or so – Southwest has been sounding more and more like a network carrier. In reality it is reaching the HVC – Hybrid Value Carrier model we have been predicting for some time. With the true LCC model just about played out for Southwest – there is no where else to go but – well up. Thus they need to expand their distribution and their model. Thus Galileo fits nicely. Why? They are already available in Sabre but Galileo represents a black hole. Thus the opportunity to reach the #2 corporate agency booking system makes perfect sense. Don’t be surprised if the work does not stop here. Look for GNEs to appear soon with that capability. SWABiz has not been a massive success and the efforts behind it seem to have been somewhat half hearted. The final catalyst has probably been two key factors – both competitive in nature. Firstly the US domestic market is already showing signs of weakness. Just last week WN reported having to revisit its projections for 2008. Secondly jetBlue has shown a remarkable uptick in sales as a result of going back into the GDS. WN cannot afford to ignore these facts.
But why not Amadeus? Simple – Amadeus in the USA is a Leisure system- that is well handled by the direct website. However herein lies a message for the other Hybrid Value Carriers. In other markets HVCs are now eyeing the situation of saturation or at least parity with network carriers and looking for ways to be fully competitive. I think the floodgates could open when Easyjet and Air Berlin look back at being in the GDS. But here is some hope for Amadeus North America – since it has none of the “evil” OTAs on its system here – it may just be OK for Southwest. And Worldspan? By the time the system is ready WSP will be owned by Travelport so the issue is somewhat moot – at least commercially.
Cheers
Timothy
Airlines - The Ides of September are coming
In the boom to bust cycle of airlines - the tradition has always been buy at the top and sell at the bottom... not exactly what even your local stock broker would tell you was a smart thing. If you are a student of history you know that Airlines are highly cyclical. Yet many forget that in times of boom. But will this cycle be any different?
Many would argue that this is the top of the cycle and we are approaching the peak of the airlines' net earning capability. Barring a catastrophe - of either an economic or socio-political variety, the airlines as a group should be very profitable this year. But the dynamics are very different this time around. Why?At T2Impact we believe that we are headed for a long term fundamental shift in the structure of the airline system.
Here are some pointers to monitor.
1. We are approaching practical capacity constraints in certain key junction points within the system. For example - The US system is already crowded at peak times yet the investment in ATC infrastructure by successive Administrations has been laughable.
2. Barriers to entry are much higher than they have been - witness the number of new airlines starting in the US market has dwindled to a trickle. In Europe there is a surfeit of LCC startups. Even the robust growth markets of GCC and Asia Pacific are not experiencing a growth of new players.
3. The massive savings gained over the last 10 years in labor cost cuts, distribution cost reductions have been offset by massive increases in fuel. Frankly there are no more major cost cutting areas left.
4. Yields are at historical highs.
5. There is going to be significant labor unrest due to the afore-mentioned labor reductions. is it time for payback? AMR's AA pilots think so with an opening round request for 30% pay increases.So what are the airlines doing with the cash?Plowing it into service improvementsStill off-loading unprofitable marginal routes to affiliate partners.Buying new planes.Etc.
What worries us is that there is no fundamental effort to address the core issues. Neither is there a regulatory mechanism for addressing the true scarcity value of the whole trip and the attendant resources consumed.We believe that a future airline sin tax regime will be introduced. If for no other reason than the usual sin tax revenues on cigarettes (for example) are starting to wane.
Our belief is that the Government bodies - both national and pan-national - and the Industry should be working on improving the efficiency of the system. A fair user fee basis of regulatory payments needs to replace the outmoded and clearly now unworkable 1944 Chicago Convention.
Finally - how about a rainy day fund?In the coming months we will explore different ways that the airlines should be responding to the future. With our new partner InTheKno (http://www.inthekno.com/) we will be examining business models for airlines and the impact on the whole of the Travel and Tourism sector. For airlines – the sky is quite sunny at the moment. But we see storm clouds a-coming.
The Domestic USA market growth is slowing and already we are seeing indicators of a softening of traffic in other markets too. Those high fares are beginning to bite. Once we get past September and we see winter sales coming in at low fares – we will see a pull back and competition for the consumer will again emerge. Round about September 15th.
You have been warned!
Cheers
Timothy
Many would argue that this is the top of the cycle and we are approaching the peak of the airlines' net earning capability. Barring a catastrophe - of either an economic or socio-political variety, the airlines as a group should be very profitable this year. But the dynamics are very different this time around. Why?At T2Impact we believe that we are headed for a long term fundamental shift in the structure of the airline system.
Here are some pointers to monitor.
1. We are approaching practical capacity constraints in certain key junction points within the system. For example - The US system is already crowded at peak times yet the investment in ATC infrastructure by successive Administrations has been laughable.
2. Barriers to entry are much higher than they have been - witness the number of new airlines starting in the US market has dwindled to a trickle. In Europe there is a surfeit of LCC startups. Even the robust growth markets of GCC and Asia Pacific are not experiencing a growth of new players.
3. The massive savings gained over the last 10 years in labor cost cuts, distribution cost reductions have been offset by massive increases in fuel. Frankly there are no more major cost cutting areas left.
4. Yields are at historical highs.
5. There is going to be significant labor unrest due to the afore-mentioned labor reductions. is it time for payback? AMR's AA pilots think so with an opening round request for 30% pay increases.So what are the airlines doing with the cash?Plowing it into service improvementsStill off-loading unprofitable marginal routes to affiliate partners.Buying new planes.Etc.
What worries us is that there is no fundamental effort to address the core issues. Neither is there a regulatory mechanism for addressing the true scarcity value of the whole trip and the attendant resources consumed.We believe that a future airline sin tax regime will be introduced. If for no other reason than the usual sin tax revenues on cigarettes (for example) are starting to wane.
Our belief is that the Government bodies - both national and pan-national - and the Industry should be working on improving the efficiency of the system. A fair user fee basis of regulatory payments needs to replace the outmoded and clearly now unworkable 1944 Chicago Convention.
Finally - how about a rainy day fund?In the coming months we will explore different ways that the airlines should be responding to the future. With our new partner InTheKno (http://www.inthekno.com/) we will be examining business models for airlines and the impact on the whole of the Travel and Tourism sector. For airlines – the sky is quite sunny at the moment. But we see storm clouds a-coming.
The Domestic USA market growth is slowing and already we are seeing indicators of a softening of traffic in other markets too. Those high fares are beginning to bite. Once we get past September and we see winter sales coming in at low fares – we will see a pull back and competition for the consumer will again emerge. Round about September 15th.
You have been warned!
Cheers
Timothy
12 May 2007
The Passing of the Torch at jetBlue
Entrepeneurs are seldom good at knowing when to kick themselves out or upstairs. The airline industry is littered with egos of people who have never learned when. (Ed Beauvais, Michael Conway amongst others). Also there are many stories of people who stayed on too long in almost any industry.
I encourage the reader to check out Robert J Serling's Aviation History Series which is a pretty good chronicle of greed and chutzpah: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/102-8178272-0316913?%5Fencoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books&field-author=Robert%20J.%20Serling
So it is with some sadness and hope that we see David Neeleman being kicked upstairs. There is no sub-plot. The airline was caught wrong footed twice this winter. Its customer service strategy was simply inadequate and the operations manual was - well just plain wrong. It has been fixed (we are led to believe) but the damage is done. So the Founder takes the fall and is kicked upstairs.
However there is a footnote to this which I believe is important to consider. jetBlue decided to use the strategy of low cost carrier, (LCC like Southwest) but full product. The differentiation being that unlike Southwest - B6 would treat its customers to a better experience and charge a premium over true low costs carriers. Thus boosting the bottom line with a higher margin than either the top cost (Legacy, Full Service Network Carriers - FNCs) or the bottom player LCCs. This was a good attempt at hybridization or HVC - Hybrid Value Carriers.
There are 2 flaws to the jetBlue strategy in my opinion.
Flaw 1 - JFK. Not the best place to have a hub due to longer lead times and other endemic problems with the airport and staffers.
Flaw 2 - Competition. Assuming that the others will stay stupid for ever is a temporary strategy at best. Delta has emerged with a focus on JFK but for different reasons (International). The net is that Delta's value proposition is better than jetBlue's when the carriers are compared on a more common set of metrics.
Both these two flaws along with a failure to continue development of a "secret sauce" differentiator by jetBlue is inhibiting its growth profile. So the stock market darling of the early part of the decade is now mired in the same sets of issues and obstacles that it sought to throw rocks at. It is for this reason that jetBlue's customer service failure has more impact. Neeleman wanted this to be the big differentiator.
Wisely there is going to be a seasoned hand on the tiller. Let's all hope that the focus returns and that jetBlue can continue to give the others a run for the money. We all love the underdog. But are we willing to pay for the good feeling? Ultimately no. Its as always - price/service mix.
Cheers
Timothy
I encourage the reader to check out Robert J Serling's Aviation History Series which is a pretty good chronicle of greed and chutzpah: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/search-handle-url/102-8178272-0316913?%5Fencoding=UTF8&search-type=ss&index=books&field-author=Robert%20J.%20Serling
So it is with some sadness and hope that we see David Neeleman being kicked upstairs. There is no sub-plot. The airline was caught wrong footed twice this winter. Its customer service strategy was simply inadequate and the operations manual was - well just plain wrong. It has been fixed (we are led to believe) but the damage is done. So the Founder takes the fall and is kicked upstairs.
However there is a footnote to this which I believe is important to consider. jetBlue decided to use the strategy of low cost carrier, (LCC like Southwest) but full product. The differentiation being that unlike Southwest - B6 would treat its customers to a better experience and charge a premium over true low costs carriers. Thus boosting the bottom line with a higher margin than either the top cost (Legacy, Full Service Network Carriers - FNCs) or the bottom player LCCs. This was a good attempt at hybridization or HVC - Hybrid Value Carriers.
There are 2 flaws to the jetBlue strategy in my opinion.
Flaw 1 - JFK. Not the best place to have a hub due to longer lead times and other endemic problems with the airport and staffers.
Flaw 2 - Competition. Assuming that the others will stay stupid for ever is a temporary strategy at best. Delta has emerged with a focus on JFK but for different reasons (International). The net is that Delta's value proposition is better than jetBlue's when the carriers are compared on a more common set of metrics.
Both these two flaws along with a failure to continue development of a "secret sauce" differentiator by jetBlue is inhibiting its growth profile. So the stock market darling of the early part of the decade is now mired in the same sets of issues and obstacles that it sought to throw rocks at. It is for this reason that jetBlue's customer service failure has more impact. Neeleman wanted this to be the big differentiator.
Wisely there is going to be a seasoned hand on the tiller. Let's all hope that the focus returns and that jetBlue can continue to give the others a run for the money. We all love the underdog. But are we willing to pay for the good feeling? Ultimately no. Its as always - price/service mix.
Cheers
Timothy
11 May 2007
Maturing Markets - UK is now - EU is next?
We can safely assume that the internet travel market is now 11 years old. (Give or take a few months). In the last 2 years we have seen a strong maturing of the market in the US to the point where it is no longer about channel shift but more about market share. The go-go years are done and the game is over (t)here.
The UK market is closer to the US than any other. The maturity of that market is now self evident (at least to Expedia and Priceline). Both of whom have pointed to this in their latest quarterly earnings. With the sea change of the VTOs merging from 4 to 2 now assured the market dynamics are pretty much set.
This essentially gives us an interesting view that we can now say that the UK is about 2-3 years behind the USA. And here its time for me to confess a bad prediction I made 10 years ago. I claimed that the UK market would not be behind the US but rather would evolve differently and in some cases at a faster rate. Well i was partially right. The UK market did evolve differently and clearly the driver was not the OTAs but rather the the LCCs. Expedia (my alma mater) failed miserably in attracting the LCCs into its fold. That failure stunted the growth of the Onlien giant and will continue to do so for many years to come.
So what can we see for the future? Is there a model for the other Tier 1 markets? Germany and France are all on slower slope curves, which will result in both of them reaching maturity later. Adopting in Tier 2 and 3 markets are more constrained due to the physical limitations such as government regulation, expensive telecoms, lack of web accessible households etc. Thus the maturity of these markets will take longer and have less profit maximization capability as the global supply chain continues to aggregate.
We will make one prediction. with this maturity occuring, we believe that the battle for the second tier markets (such as Italy and Spain) will heat up with acquisitions being a preferable way to accelerate the market. Expedia recently launched expedia.es to compete with such local industry heavyweights as eDreams. Still they cannot seem to crack the LCC market, although the WTTC/Ryanair deal does give them a toe tip into the sector.
We can all be assured that next year the scouts for Orbitz, Travelocity and Expedia will be out in force. The battle grounds will not just stop at the top and second tier. We already see massive competitive in 2 of the BRIC countries. What about Brazil and South Africa? Its still a wild ride folks. Come along
Cheers
Timothy
The UK market is closer to the US than any other. The maturity of that market is now self evident (at least to Expedia and Priceline). Both of whom have pointed to this in their latest quarterly earnings. With the sea change of the VTOs merging from 4 to 2 now assured the market dynamics are pretty much set.
This essentially gives us an interesting view that we can now say that the UK is about 2-3 years behind the USA. And here its time for me to confess a bad prediction I made 10 years ago. I claimed that the UK market would not be behind the US but rather would evolve differently and in some cases at a faster rate. Well i was partially right. The UK market did evolve differently and clearly the driver was not the OTAs but rather the the LCCs. Expedia (my alma mater) failed miserably in attracting the LCCs into its fold. That failure stunted the growth of the Onlien giant and will continue to do so for many years to come.
So what can we see for the future? Is there a model for the other Tier 1 markets? Germany and France are all on slower slope curves, which will result in both of them reaching maturity later. Adopting in Tier 2 and 3 markets are more constrained due to the physical limitations such as government regulation, expensive telecoms, lack of web accessible households etc. Thus the maturity of these markets will take longer and have less profit maximization capability as the global supply chain continues to aggregate.
We will make one prediction. with this maturity occuring, we believe that the battle for the second tier markets (such as Italy and Spain) will heat up with acquisitions being a preferable way to accelerate the market. Expedia recently launched expedia.es to compete with such local industry heavyweights as eDreams. Still they cannot seem to crack the LCC market, although the WTTC/Ryanair deal does give them a toe tip into the sector.
We can all be assured that next year the scouts for Orbitz, Travelocity and Expedia will be out in force. The battle grounds will not just stop at the top and second tier. We already see massive competitive in 2 of the BRIC countries. What about Brazil and South Africa? Its still a wild ride folks. Come along
Cheers
Timothy
10 May 2007
For some time there has been a return to basics by the legacy carriers. Battered and bruised even before 9/11 the specter of the failed attempts by United Airlines (Allegis) and SAS to build global broad based travel businesses have scared off the majority of airlines. In recent years we have seen significant divestiture by airlines of even some seemingly core airline services for example BA selling SpeedWing and its airline IT business, Qantas the same, Even Lufthansa offloaded its 50% share in Thomas Cook to long time partner KarstadtQuelle. A recent global survey of nearly 200 carriers by Sabre Airline Solutions has found that less than half (48%) ‘believe developing new revenue streams is important to the overall airline revenue strategy’
However the LCCs continue to power ahead with their ancillary revenue streams. The ever ebullient Mr O’Leary from Ryanair has made no secret of his desire to broaden the base of his airline to a point where he will be actually paying people to fly. With significant revenue streams from its partners in the Car Rental business (Hertz) and Hotels (Formerly Travelport/Octopus and now Expedia WTTC) he is clearly showing that this can be done.
Similarly EasyJet has some proof of this trend. Ancillary revenue per seat for easyJet has increased by 18% to £3.81 during the first half of its financial year, with ‘partner revenues' from car hire and insurance, rather than hotels, driving the growth. The largest single source is from Credit Card fees. All airlines should sit up and pay attention to this. With Google Checkout offering zero fees for processing – we still cannot understand why no airline seems to be partnering with Google for this way to drop cash to the bottom line.
T2Impact is a strong believer in opportunities for non-transaction based revenue opportunities as a core part of any travel site’s gross income.
When the overall travel market goes soft we expect to see a rush hunt for new revenue. Better be prepared now rather than later.
We are here to help
Cheers
Timothy
Timothy J O'Neil-Dunne
Managing Partner - T2Impact Ltd
Global Travel eBusiness Tel (
US) +1 425 836 4770
Mobile (US) +1 425 785 4457
Mobile (International) +44 7770 33 81 75
Fax +1 815 377 1583
UNIVERSAL VOICEMAIL BOX +1 425 749 4221
www.t2impact.com
However the LCCs continue to power ahead with their ancillary revenue streams. The ever ebullient Mr O’Leary from Ryanair has made no secret of his desire to broaden the base of his airline to a point where he will be actually paying people to fly. With significant revenue streams from its partners in the Car Rental business (Hertz) and Hotels (Formerly Travelport/Octopus and now Expedia WTTC) he is clearly showing that this can be done.
Similarly EasyJet has some proof of this trend. Ancillary revenue per seat for easyJet has increased by 18% to £3.81 during the first half of its financial year, with ‘partner revenues' from car hire and insurance, rather than hotels, driving the growth. The largest single source is from Credit Card fees. All airlines should sit up and pay attention to this. With Google Checkout offering zero fees for processing – we still cannot understand why no airline seems to be partnering with Google for this way to drop cash to the bottom line.
T2Impact is a strong believer in opportunities for non-transaction based revenue opportunities as a core part of any travel site’s gross income.
When the overall travel market goes soft we expect to see a rush hunt for new revenue. Better be prepared now rather than later.
We are here to help
Cheers
Timothy
Timothy J O'Neil-Dunne
Managing Partner - T2Impact Ltd
Global Travel eBusiness Tel (
US) +1 425 836 4770
Mobile (US) +1 425 785 4457
Mobile (International) +44 7770 33 81 75
Fax +1 815 377 1583
UNIVERSAL VOICEMAIL BOX +1 425 749 4221
www.t2impact.com
08 May 2007
Launch of InTheKno - New partner
Today we are proud to announce the launch of InTheKno - our new partner in Research. Dubbed "Insight and Analysis without the hard work" the new site and material has been in the works for the past 4 months. T2 is partnering with Travelmole in this endeavor.
Check out the new site: www.inthekno.com
Also check out the commentary blog - www.inthekno.blogspot.com Altitude with Attitude.
Cheers
Timothy
Check out the new site: www.inthekno.com
Also check out the commentary blog - www.inthekno.blogspot.com Altitude with Attitude.
Cheers
Timothy
So as an airline you have extra cash - what do you do with it?
In the boom to bust cycle of airlines - the tradition has always been buy at the top and sell at the bottom... not exactly what even your local stock broker would tell you was a smart thing. If you are a student of history you know that Airlines are highly cyclical. Yet many forget that in times of boom.
Will this cycle be any different?
Many would argue that this is the top of the cycle and we are approaching the peak of the airlines' net earning capability. Barring a catastrophe - of either an economic or socio-political variety, the airlines as a group should be very profitable this year. But the dynamics are very different this time around.
Why?
At T2Impact we believe that we are headed for a long term fundamental shift in the structure of the airline system. Here are some pointers to monitor.
1. We are approaching practical capacity constraints in certain key junction points within the system. For example - The US system is already crowded at peak times yet the investment in ATC infrastructure by successive Administrations has been laughable.
2. Barriers to entry are much higher than they have been - witness the number of new airlines starting in the US market has dwindled to a trickle. In Europe there is a surfeit of LCC startups. Even the robust growth markets of GCC and Asia Pacific are not experiencing a growth of new players.
3. The massive savings gained over the last 10 years in labor cost cuts, distribution cost reductions have been offset by massive increases in fuel. Frankly there are no more major cost cutting areas left.
4. Yields are at historical highs.
5. There is going to be significant labor unrest due to the afore-mentioned labor reductions. Is it time for payback? AMR's AA pilots think so with an opening round request for 30% pay increases.
What are the airlines doing with the cash?
Plowing it into service improvements.
Still off-loading unprofitable marginal routes to affiliate partners.
Buying new planes.
Etc.
What worries us is that there is no fundamental effort to address the core issues. Neither is there a regulatory mechanism for addressing the true scarcity value of the whole trip and the attendant resources consumed.We believe that a future airline sin tax regime will be introduced. If for no other reason than the usual sin tax revenues on cigarettes (for example) are starting to wane.Our belief is that the Government bodies - both national and pan-national - and the Industry should be working on improving the efficiency of the system.
A fair user fee basis of regulatory payments needs to replace the outmoded and clearly now unworkable 1944 Chicago Convention.
Finally - how about a rainy day fund?In the coming months we will explore different ways that the airlines should be responding to the future.
With our new partner InTheKno (www.inthekno.com) we will be examining business models for airlines and the impact on the whole of the Travel and Tourism sector.
Cheers
Timothy
Timothy J O'Neil-Dunne
Managing Partner - T2Impact LtdGlobal Travel eBusiness
Tel (US) +1 425 836 4770Mobile (US) +1 425 785 4457
Mobile (International) +44 7770 33 81 75Fax +1 815 377 1583
UNIVERSAL VOICEMAIL BOX +1 425 749 4221
www.t2impact.com
Please treat this email and all forms of communication as confidential use only for the direct recipient(s).
CHECK OUT OUR NEW PARTNER - INTHEKNO
www.inthekno.com
Insight and Analysis without the hard work
Will this cycle be any different?
Many would argue that this is the top of the cycle and we are approaching the peak of the airlines' net earning capability. Barring a catastrophe - of either an economic or socio-political variety, the airlines as a group should be very profitable this year. But the dynamics are very different this time around.
Why?
At T2Impact we believe that we are headed for a long term fundamental shift in the structure of the airline system. Here are some pointers to monitor.
1. We are approaching practical capacity constraints in certain key junction points within the system. For example - The US system is already crowded at peak times yet the investment in ATC infrastructure by successive Administrations has been laughable.
2. Barriers to entry are much higher than they have been - witness the number of new airlines starting in the US market has dwindled to a trickle. In Europe there is a surfeit of LCC startups. Even the robust growth markets of GCC and Asia Pacific are not experiencing a growth of new players.
3. The massive savings gained over the last 10 years in labor cost cuts, distribution cost reductions have been offset by massive increases in fuel. Frankly there are no more major cost cutting areas left.
4. Yields are at historical highs.
5. There is going to be significant labor unrest due to the afore-mentioned labor reductions. Is it time for payback? AMR's AA pilots think so with an opening round request for 30% pay increases.
What are the airlines doing with the cash?
Plowing it into service improvements.
Still off-loading unprofitable marginal routes to affiliate partners.
Buying new planes.
Etc.
What worries us is that there is no fundamental effort to address the core issues. Neither is there a regulatory mechanism for addressing the true scarcity value of the whole trip and the attendant resources consumed.We believe that a future airline sin tax regime will be introduced. If for no other reason than the usual sin tax revenues on cigarettes (for example) are starting to wane.Our belief is that the Government bodies - both national and pan-national - and the Industry should be working on improving the efficiency of the system.
A fair user fee basis of regulatory payments needs to replace the outmoded and clearly now unworkable 1944 Chicago Convention.
Finally - how about a rainy day fund?In the coming months we will explore different ways that the airlines should be responding to the future.
With our new partner InTheKno (www.inthekno.com) we will be examining business models for airlines and the impact on the whole of the Travel and Tourism sector.
Cheers
Timothy
Timothy J O'Neil-Dunne
Managing Partner - T2Impact LtdGlobal Travel eBusiness
Tel (US) +1 425 836 4770Mobile (US) +1 425 785 4457
Mobile (International) +44 7770 33 81 75Fax +1 815 377 1583
UNIVERSAL VOICEMAIL BOX +1 425 749 4221
www.t2impact.com
Please treat this email and all forms of communication as confidential use only for the direct recipient(s).
CHECK OUT OUR NEW PARTNER - INTHEKNO
www.inthekno.com
Insight and Analysis without the hard work
07 May 2007
Irony of names - Air Canada's new system
According to recent press reports Air Canada's replacement for Res III (By the way Res III was short for Reservac 3) will be dubbed Polaris. Well that got me thinking. Way back when... I worked for a certain reservations systems company in Kansas City, Northwest pulled their system away from its own environment from nearby friendly supplier Unisys Corp (in this case the Old Univac company) and into what was then called PARS. In doing so the old system that died was called - Polaris.
Lets hope that it lasts a little longer for Air Canada. Incidently Northwest retained the name for its Cargo system. Today it is called Polaris. But for how much longer we wonder!
Cheers
Timothy
Lets hope that it lasts a little longer for Air Canada. Incidently Northwest retained the name for its Cargo system. Today it is called Polaris. But for how much longer we wonder!
Cheers
Timothy
US fights to keep Internet Gambling Ban
http://www.reuters.com/article/internetNews/idUSWAT00742720070504?pageNumber=3
The USA has long had a ban on interstate gambling. The US Gambling lobby is pretty darn strong. For example the current junior Senator from Nevada's father was formerly President of Mandalay Bay Resort Group (now part of Kirkorian's MGM). In the day and age when the US is espousing open commerce for all is seems ironic that one of the Web's best businesses is denied a chance to flourish in its largest market.
For a personal reference I dislike gambling - but that is a matter of personal taste. I defend anyone's right to gamble if they choose.
So I hope that the WTO does indeed sanction the USA for this absurd situation. Selective trade scope seems to be rather protectionist. Perhaps Costa Rica and Antigua should declare war on the USA and then we can have a real headline match. Reminds me of a Peter Sellers movie http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0053084/
Cheers
Timothy
Qantas Deal Collapses - What's next?
If it sounds too good to be true then it must be....
Suffice to say - APA (basically McQuarie and TPG) - received a bloody nose from the regulator and the stockholders and said - you cant ride roughshod over the national icon. The problem is that the perception of value and the actual value in the marketplace are not aligned. The shareholders all believe that there was some monkey business with a bleak future prospects put out when the bid was announced. Yet the performance of QF and the various subs has been much better than the regime of Mr Dixon would have us all believe. Plus the chaps at TPG were really struggling to make the deal work. It was marginal at best.
The Flying Kangeroo is somewhat therefore in limbo. The senior management find themselves in a quandry because unless APA or either partner makes a bid very soon - then at least the Chairwoman's head must roll.
The market for airline stocks is going to be good for the summer and in Oz perhaps even longer given the tight lock that QF currently has on the market. But perhaps not for long. The Canberra government cannot fend off SQ's desire for a seat at the US-OZ highly lucrative market. Not to mention the start soon of Virgin/Pacific/Blue Something's 777 service coming in 2008.
With AMR looking to suffer a summer of labor discontent (Pilots want 30%+ raises) those PE (Private Equity) Funds need to find somewhere to put some of that cash. Remember the old adage - how to make a million? Start with a billion and buy and airline.
Good Luck QF - Flying Solo is probably your best option at this point. But do make sure that you focus on the back door... there are many barbarians at the gate and you cannot rest on your laurels. (I love a mixed metaphor or 3)!
Cheers
Timothy
Suffice to say - APA (basically McQuarie and TPG) - received a bloody nose from the regulator and the stockholders and said - you cant ride roughshod over the national icon. The problem is that the perception of value and the actual value in the marketplace are not aligned. The shareholders all believe that there was some monkey business with a bleak future prospects put out when the bid was announced. Yet the performance of QF and the various subs has been much better than the regime of Mr Dixon would have us all believe. Plus the chaps at TPG were really struggling to make the deal work. It was marginal at best.
The Flying Kangeroo is somewhat therefore in limbo. The senior management find themselves in a quandry because unless APA or either partner makes a bid very soon - then at least the Chairwoman's head must roll.
The market for airline stocks is going to be good for the summer and in Oz perhaps even longer given the tight lock that QF currently has on the market. But perhaps not for long. The Canberra government cannot fend off SQ's desire for a seat at the US-OZ highly lucrative market. Not to mention the start soon of Virgin/Pacific/Blue Something's 777 service coming in 2008.
With AMR looking to suffer a summer of labor discontent (Pilots want 30%+ raises) those PE (Private Equity) Funds need to find somewhere to put some of that cash. Remember the old adage - how to make a million? Start with a billion and buy and airline.
Good Luck QF - Flying Solo is probably your best option at this point. But do make sure that you focus on the back door... there are many barbarians at the gate and you cannot rest on your laurels. (I love a mixed metaphor or 3)!
Cheers
Timothy
04 May 2007
Global Free Calling Day - Yes CALL YOUR MOTHER
Those nice people at Skype are giving you the opportunity of a life time. A FREE DAY of global calling. Call anyone you like anywhere in the world as long as you initiate the call from a Skype VOIP address. Actually it does carry a few restrictions (like only from a US IP address) - here is the full T&Cs. http://www.skype.com/campaigns/giftofgab/terms.html?cm_mmc=Acceleration-_-Email-_-NA_GoG_launch_EN_US_070503-_-terms
Go ahead. Get back some of that money you have paid to eBay
Cheers and CALL YOUR MOTHER
Oh yes... just so you know if you are an American - NOT ALL COUNTRIES have mothers day on May 13th!
Timothy
Go ahead. Get back some of that money you have paid to eBay
Cheers and CALL YOUR MOTHER
Oh yes... just so you know if you are an American - NOT ALL COUNTRIES have mothers day on May 13th!
Timothy
Oops - Blackstone hits snag in pursuit of Worldspan
The EU has decided that it has "serious concerns" which will place the Blackstone/Travelport acquisition of Worldspan under the microscope. Frankly this should be a non-event. The total market for reservations services is not that great. So the scope of the review seems somewhat out of whack with the general industry view.
However - it may be that this is an indication from the EU of how they view GDS deregulation although that would be a stretch since a different group inside the EU is looking at the issue - Transportation (Jacques Barrot) vs the DG on Competition (yes Neelie Kroes's group) who are looking at this merger.
The story so far is that - On 23 March 2007, the Commission received a notification of a proposed concentration pursuant to Article 4 and following a referral pursuant to Article 4(5) of Council Regulation (EC) No 139/2004 (1) by which the undertaking Travelport Inc. (‘Travelport’ USA) a subsidiary of The Blackstone Group (‘Blackstone’ USA) acquires within the meaning of Article 3(1)(b) of the Council Regulation control of the whole of Worldspan Technologies Inc. (‘Worldspan’ USA) by way of purchase of shares.
On March 30th it issued a 10 day notice for comment. That has now been done and yes they feel there will be concentratio which opens the docket for a deep investigation. This can take up to a year.
So what's going to happen? The options for WSP and Galileo are not pretty. So they will probably have to go through the erosion of marketshare and the collapse of WSP's US and EU business or seek an expedited review. With Rakesh and crew mentally checking out - this will be hard on the rank and file.
The chaps in Axis House and at the Galleria are probably longing for the Halcyon days of Roy Burnham and Neil Beck.
Stay tuned. This one is going to run for a while.
Cheers
Timothy
PS disclosure - I was Head of International Technology for Worldspan from 1990-1996 based in London.
However - it may be that this is an indication from the EU of how they view GDS deregulation although that would be a stretch since a different group inside the EU is looking at the issue - Transportation (Jacques Barrot) vs the DG on Competition (yes Neelie Kroes's group) who are looking at this merger.
The story so far is that - On 23 March 2007, the Commission received a notification of a proposed concentration pursuant to Article 4 and following a referral pursuant to Article 4(5) of Council Regulation (EC) No 139/2004 (1) by which the undertaking Travelport Inc. (‘Travelport’ USA) a subsidiary of The Blackstone Group (‘Blackstone’ USA) acquires within the meaning of Article 3(1)(b) of the Council Regulation control of the whole of Worldspan Technologies Inc. (‘Worldspan’ USA) by way of purchase of shares.
On March 30th it issued a 10 day notice for comment. That has now been done and yes they feel there will be concentratio which opens the docket for a deep investigation. This can take up to a year.
So what's going to happen? The options for WSP and Galileo are not pretty. So they will probably have to go through the erosion of marketshare and the collapse of WSP's US and EU business or seek an expedited review. With Rakesh and crew mentally checking out - this will be hard on the rank and file.
The chaps in Axis House and at the Galleria are probably longing for the Halcyon days of Roy Burnham and Neil Beck.
Stay tuned. This one is going to run for a while.
Cheers
Timothy
PS disclosure - I was Head of International Technology for Worldspan from 1990-1996 based in London.
Electronic Ticketing - will the airlines meet the 12/12/07?
Sabre is claiming 90% plus, Abacus is at 60%.......... So will we make Giovanni's deadline? Actually the answer is no but it wont matter.
The players will decide that those who need to be in the fold will be there - those who dont will be left out. It doesnt matter whether you make it or not.
I recall in 1984 United Airlines complained that they were processing 88 different internal ticket types. we have been working with a carrier who is 77% electronic yet still processes 24 different internal ticket types.
But there is still a hidden burden. The difference between Eticketing and truly ticketless is something that is holding airlines back. GET WITH THE PROGRAM. Its about business simplicity. Simplicity saves money.
So lets do the right thing.
Bite the bullet and make it TICKETLESS now. You still have time. And just pick a date and then do the most you can to eliminate everything else. If you dont then you wont make the savings you need.
Cheers
Timothy
The players will decide that those who need to be in the fold will be there - those who dont will be left out. It doesnt matter whether you make it or not.
I recall in 1984 United Airlines complained that they were processing 88 different internal ticket types. we have been working with a carrier who is 77% electronic yet still processes 24 different internal ticket types.
But there is still a hidden burden. The difference between Eticketing and truly ticketless is something that is holding airlines back. GET WITH THE PROGRAM. Its about business simplicity. Simplicity saves money.
So lets do the right thing.
Bite the bullet and make it TICKETLESS now. You still have time. And just pick a date and then do the most you can to eliminate everything else. If you dont then you wont make the savings you need.
Cheers
Timothy
03 May 2007
Infogluttony = Time Famine and Email Bankruptcy
I read with interest the declining readership of Local Newspapers in the USA - its a worldwide trend. Print media is in decline. Conventional Broadcast media is also in steep decline as fragmentation takes hold. While we all multi-task there comes a point when we cannot do everything during a 24 hour day, more distractions arrive - New Blogs, Wikis and yes Youtube.
So what are we to do?
While I have long lobbied for a 32 hour day no one seems to be interested in that idea - Swatch had a good one – break the day into a different unit called Beats but that did as well as Esperanto. I have even tried sleeping less hours. My sleep bank has been in a state of overdraft for many years now.
The problem is there is TOO much information and too much that we need to process. I call this infogluttony and its leading to the two newest trends. Time Famine and Email bankruptcy.
The former is when you simply run out of time. Whether you blame it on too much info, or too much process (driven by PC -Politically Correct- requirements or even regulatory needs such as SOX rules), we are all screwed. Thinking freely and expressing yourself freely is no longer allowed. You have to be careful not to speak ill and anyone seen wearing a "Nuke the gay whales for Jesus" T shirt is likely to be lynched. That all takes time and extra thought.
The latter is when you just start over. A good friend of mine who works at Customer Service at a certain large LCC did this several years ago. She simply changed her email account and closed it down. Several members of the T2 family tired of spam have done the same. Its rather a scary thing. I registered timothyo at many different email accounts - the spammers don’t even need to steal my accounts - they just guess - like Frankb or Billg.
So if ANYONE out there has an answer for this - PLEASE come and get me. I am seriously considering running away from all this. Thank god my Blackberry works just about anywhere now
Cheers
Timothy
So what are we to do?
While I have long lobbied for a 32 hour day no one seems to be interested in that idea - Swatch had a good one – break the day into a different unit called Beats but that did as well as Esperanto. I have even tried sleeping less hours. My sleep bank has been in a state of overdraft for many years now.
The problem is there is TOO much information and too much that we need to process. I call this infogluttony and its leading to the two newest trends. Time Famine and Email bankruptcy.
The former is when you simply run out of time. Whether you blame it on too much info, or too much process (driven by PC -Politically Correct- requirements or even regulatory needs such as SOX rules), we are all screwed. Thinking freely and expressing yourself freely is no longer allowed. You have to be careful not to speak ill and anyone seen wearing a "Nuke the gay whales for Jesus" T shirt is likely to be lynched. That all takes time and extra thought.
The latter is when you just start over. A good friend of mine who works at Customer Service at a certain large LCC did this several years ago. She simply changed her email account and closed it down. Several members of the T2 family tired of spam have done the same. Its rather a scary thing. I registered timothyo at many different email accounts - the spammers don’t even need to steal my accounts - they just guess - like Frankb or Billg.
So if ANYONE out there has an answer for this - PLEASE come and get me. I am seriously considering running away from all this. Thank god my Blackberry works just about anywhere now
Cheers
Timothy
Sabre emulates Worldspan - sets up GSA in Nigeria
Eyeing one of the largest markets in Africa (also one of the riskiest) Sabre has partnered with local Nigerian Travel Agency group Interguide Air Limited, that will see it become available to the nearly 800 Travel Agencies in the country.
Nigeria is a well known center for fraud and questionable ticketing practices. Cash is the usual form of financial instrument but still altered tickets and various techniques have emenated from there. The age of the internet has not dimmed these efforts. How many of us have received offers to bank $8.7 million from so and so's widow?
However with Virgin Nigeria now more than a year old and well established. New Carrier Arik Air bursting onto the scene with a major order from Boeing last week - you have to think the risk is now lessened. Arguably Nigeria is the largest market in sub-Saharan Africa after Kenya and of course South Africa.
Interestingly here, Sabre has taken a leaf out of Worldspan's book and established a GSA in the market rather than risking its own corporate entity. I can just imagine the chaps in the Texas bunker getting this request from London!!!
Best of luck - count your fingers when you do this!
Cheers
Timothy
Nigeria is a well known center for fraud and questionable ticketing practices. Cash is the usual form of financial instrument but still altered tickets and various techniques have emenated from there. The age of the internet has not dimmed these efforts. How many of us have received offers to bank $8.7 million from so and so's widow?
However with Virgin Nigeria now more than a year old and well established. New Carrier Arik Air bursting onto the scene with a major order from Boeing last week - you have to think the risk is now lessened. Arguably Nigeria is the largest market in sub-Saharan Africa after Kenya and of course South Africa.
Interestingly here, Sabre has taken a leaf out of Worldspan's book and established a GSA in the market rather than risking its own corporate entity. I can just imagine the chaps in the Texas bunker getting this request from London!!!
Best of luck - count your fingers when you do this!
Cheers
Timothy
02 May 2007
Pegs and Wizcom - Last Gasp II
Yes folks the old models are dropping like flies. In my humble opinion, here is another one that will soon be biting the dust...
Pegasus - whose CEO was once called a very derogatory name in public by one of his big customers - has JUST managed to scrape through and get enough cash in the till with a recent offering. Not wishing to even hide their intent on cashing out - the current investors made it very clear they wanted the cash for themselves - oh yes and to buy out Wizcom from Blackstone. This they have managed to do.
But life isn’t so rosy. Pegasus revenues have been falling for some time. Its customers and suppliers are defecting and its business is not as relevant as it once was.
I feel very strongly that despite the underlying trend of disintermediation the team at Pegasus made a mistake many years ago when they didnt develop a solution for Wide Area Availability (aka Availability Search). Hoping to capitalize on what was then a monopoly - they refused to address the question. Well now they will pay the piper.
Their relevance is no longer as strong as fragmentation and bypass are the order of the day. Pegs can no longer rely on the GDSs nor their supply side partners.
I would like to put to rest one awful truth out there about the GDS being a higher yield market for Hotels. While this is technically true it comes at a price:
1. The product/content served up is pretty poor.
2. The technology sucks.
3. Travel Agents are in the main lazy and don’t look hard if the product is not available easily via the GDS.
Consequently the premium paid by users for hotels booked via the GDS Travel Agency (TMC type) bookings versus those booked using Pegasus linked to say and OTA such as Expedia has been of the order 20%+ (source TravelClick). But this is an unnatural act. In today's tight market for product (with occupancy levels at historic highs) this is unsustainable. The hoteliers got VERY smart in recent years and manage now to have the upper hand. Pegasus is largely irrelevant and their total share of the market is falling.
As bypass of different types occurs and fragmentation is the order of the day it is not just Pegs Switch business that suffers but the other pieces also. The rep business has seen significant erosion due to new players at cheaper rates and better services/technologies emerge.
Even the HCC business is coming under fire - without the ubiquity of the Switch carrying all Travel intermediary business - the value of the switch based HCC counting falls away. Perot is the beneficiary of this.
So good luck to Mike and John as the struggle to hold on to the business. There are already more holes in the dyke than you have fingers...
Cheers
Timothy
Pegasus - whose CEO was once called a very derogatory name in public by one of his big customers - has JUST managed to scrape through and get enough cash in the till with a recent offering. Not wishing to even hide their intent on cashing out - the current investors made it very clear they wanted the cash for themselves - oh yes and to buy out Wizcom from Blackstone. This they have managed to do.
But life isn’t so rosy. Pegasus revenues have been falling for some time. Its customers and suppliers are defecting and its business is not as relevant as it once was.
I feel very strongly that despite the underlying trend of disintermediation the team at Pegasus made a mistake many years ago when they didnt develop a solution for Wide Area Availability (aka Availability Search). Hoping to capitalize on what was then a monopoly - they refused to address the question. Well now they will pay the piper.
Their relevance is no longer as strong as fragmentation and bypass are the order of the day. Pegs can no longer rely on the GDSs nor their supply side partners.
I would like to put to rest one awful truth out there about the GDS being a higher yield market for Hotels. While this is technically true it comes at a price:
1. The product/content served up is pretty poor.
2. The technology sucks.
3. Travel Agents are in the main lazy and don’t look hard if the product is not available easily via the GDS.
Consequently the premium paid by users for hotels booked via the GDS Travel Agency (TMC type) bookings versus those booked using Pegasus linked to say and OTA such as Expedia has been of the order 20%+ (source TravelClick). But this is an unnatural act. In today's tight market for product (with occupancy levels at historic highs) this is unsustainable. The hoteliers got VERY smart in recent years and manage now to have the upper hand. Pegasus is largely irrelevant and their total share of the market is falling.
As bypass of different types occurs and fragmentation is the order of the day it is not just Pegs Switch business that suffers but the other pieces also. The rep business has seen significant erosion due to new players at cheaper rates and better services/technologies emerge.
Even the HCC business is coming under fire - without the ubiquity of the Switch carrying all Travel intermediary business - the value of the switch based HCC counting falls away. Perot is the beneficiary of this.
So good luck to Mike and John as the struggle to hold on to the business. There are already more holes in the dyke than you have fingers...
Cheers
Timothy
01 May 2007
Bravo Worldspan - finally someone attacks the core issue of Passive Segments
Despite being the lame duck of GDS, Worldspan seems to be going out with a bang not a whimper.
Worldspan is introducing a new service called Consolidator Control. The first real attempt at solving the root cause of "honest" passive segments.
Lets wish them well with it
Cheers
Timothy
Worldspan is introducing a new service called Consolidator Control. The first real attempt at solving the root cause of "honest" passive segments.
Lets wish them well with it
Cheers
Timothy
LCC with a real difference - the All Veggie airline
New airline with the catchy name of MDLR Airlines http://www.mdlrairlines.in/ has a new and definitely different twist offering Vegetarian "Exquisite Cuisnine" to its patrons on a definitely not LCC Avro RJ70.
With the Indian market very crowded - lets hope these guys do well. Maybe this is the start of an all new trend - Niche LCCs. We can just see Mr O'Leary starting his own PottyMouth Air.
Cheers
Timothy
With the Indian market very crowded - lets hope these guys do well. Maybe this is the start of an all new trend - Niche LCCs. We can just see Mr O'Leary starting his own PottyMouth Air.
Cheers
Timothy
24 April 2007
Bravo FareCompare - Airlines Worst Nightmare revealed
I am a huge fan of smart people who can work the system to their advantage. One of the last bastions of the airline old school system has finally been publically breached. FareCompare has actually called the airlines bluff.
http://www.farecompare.com/articles/cheapest-airline-guarantees/same_day_cheapest_airline_ticket_guarantees_hype_or_hope.html
Read the article and start collecting the bonus certificates. It will take a few weeks for the airlines to start reacting. But NOW they also have a new tool to change their fares. It makes reading fare notices from ATPCo even more fun.
Sadly the fix will be that the airlines will "cheat" and push out the effective dates of the fare change so this "freebie" process will only work for a short time. But its still a great day that the consumer is able to compete on fair terms with the airlines historical obfuscation processes.
Again - Bravo to Neil and Rick!
Gentlemen my hat is off to you
Cheers
Timothy
http://www.farecompare.com/articles/cheapest-airline-guarantees/same_day_cheapest_airline_ticket_guarantees_hype_or_hope.html
Read the article and start collecting the bonus certificates. It will take a few weeks for the airlines to start reacting. But NOW they also have a new tool to change their fares. It makes reading fare notices from ATPCo even more fun.
Sadly the fix will be that the airlines will "cheat" and push out the effective dates of the fare change so this "freebie" process will only work for a short time. But its still a great day that the consumer is able to compete on fair terms with the airlines historical obfuscation processes.
Again - Bravo to Neil and Rick!
Gentlemen my hat is off to you
Cheers
Timothy
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