Can it be that there is already a very large number of blogs out there that we are going to get a best of" book about them? Yes siree. There are literally thousands of them. Every passionate player is on his soapbox and what a large soapbox it is. But this is good. I can read and digest differing opinions from people worldwide. Some of it is organized, some of it is not. Some good some downright terrible. Some pure and pristine, others patently biased and commercially bent.
But hurray for the group of folks who have come together to create the world’s first book of the best travel marketing blogs. For those of us (either sick in the head or just plain crazy) who love this business this comes at a welcome time.
The three major players: Wired In Travel Conference (WIT), Singapore (www.wiredintravel.com), Canada-e-Connect Conference in Vancouver (www.canadaeconnect.com), and Travolution (http://www.travolution.com/) are collaborating on a new eBook called “Tips from the T-List” – the unofficial list of travel-related blogs. A call for submissions for the eBook to be launched in Vancouver, Singapore and London at Canada-e-Connect, and Wired-In-Travel, and through the Travolution media brand is being made.
Please contact one of the 3 people and tell them that Timothy sent you.
It sounds like it will be very cool and definitely useful. Don’t forget to sign up your own blog there and follow the list.
The text of the press release follows:
MEDIA RELEASE Announcing the world’s first book of the best travel marketing blogs A call for submissions: eBook to be launched in Vancouver, Singapore and London at Canada-e-Connect, and Wired-In-Travel, and through the Travolution media brand VANCOUVER/ SINGAPORE/LONDON – Wired In Travel Conference (WIT), Singapore (www.wiredintravel.com), will be collaborating with the Canada-e-Connect Conference in Vancouver (www.canadaeconnect.com), on a new eBook called “Tips from the T-List” – the unofficial list of travel-related blogs.
The eBook will be launched at Canada-e-Connect which takes place in Vancouver on November 7-9, and will then make its Asian debut at WIT on November 27-29. The book will also be available to delegates at the Travolution Autumn Conference in London on November 1 and via its website, blog and magazine.
Mathieu Ouellet from Quebec City, who started the T-List” said, “The idea of bringing together all different travel-related blogs was born and nurtured in Canada, but has quickly turned into a global community of travel marketers, many of whom have come together to form a T-List group on social networking phenomenon Facebook.” Jens Thraenhart, the executive director of marketing strategy & customer relationship management for the Canadian Tourism Commission, who will be chairing Canada-e-Connect and speaking at WIT on “E-Business Strategies For Destinations and Other Marketers in An Age of Transparency”, writes in his Tourism Internet Marketing Blog, “In the world of Web 2.0, Globalization, and Mass Collaboration, as well as cross-national partnerships, we believe we can all make a difference and putting our words into action and lead with an example.”Singapore is joining the organisers of the event in Vancouver and the Travolution brand in London in calling for the best posts from travel-related blogs globally, so the content may serve as tool for travel and hospitality marketers worldwide to make sense of the ever-changing environment of new media, emerging technologies and consumer trends.
Topics will include e-marketing tips, search engine marketing, online advertising, social media, new and ground-breaking website reviews, and much more. “We have been inspired by the collective knowledge of the T-List bloggers since its launch earlier this year. We hope this new book will provide a vital reference guide for travel, tourism and hospitality marketers,” said Kevin May, editor of Travolution. Added Yeoh Siew Hoon, producer of WIT: “This is Web 2.0 in action and we are pleased to bring the weight of the world’s fastest growing market to this project. The T-List will then truly become the A-list of travel-related blogs in this new global, digital age.”
Here’s how you can be part of the world’s first T-list in travel. Deadline for submissions is September 30, 2007. 1. Complete and fax back the following consent form to +1 604 648 9651 or email it to tlist@rezgo.com. Available at http://tourismtechnology.rezgo.com/2007/09/consent-form-for-publication-in-tips.html.
2. Send us three of your best posts. The editors will select one of these posts to appear in the book, with the goal of providing "Insider" experience and expertise in how online marketing can benefit travel and tourism. The posts should be your own work and should be things like tips, observations, or helpful hints. Please do not send news items or trend oriented posts because these will become outdated very quickly. Concentrate on original thoughts, tips, best practices, etc. Please limit the piece to 300-500 words max. You can either email your nominations, or use the T-List Wiki at http://www.radaron.com/wiki/tiki-index.php.
3. Send us a good quality headshot (if you want it included).
4. Send us a good quality screenshot of your blog or website.
5. Send us a very brief bio of yourself, your location (which will be added to a map of all bloggers) and the description of your blog
6. Send us your full name, address, phone and email so we can send you a copy of the book. Only those contributors who make it into the book will receive a copy, however, we will be making a free e-book available for download that you can distribute. 7. Make sure you add your information to the T-List Community on Facebook, where you can also find links to more information and blogs.
Note: The editorial team reserves the right to reject posts or blogs that are either below quality, have a commercial or self-serving connotation, or are not a fit with the overall concept of the book in delivering value for the travel and tourism industry at large. “Tips from the T-List” Team:Stephen Joyce, Publisher (http://tourismtechnology.rezgo.com/) Jens Thraenhart, Editor in Chief (http://tourisminternetmarketing.com/) Mathieu Ouellet, Editor, North America (http://radaron.com/) Yeoh Siew Hoon, Editor, Asia Pacific (http://thetransitcafe.com/) Kevin May, Editor, Europe, Middle East (http://travolution.blogspot.com/) - Canada-e-Connect Conference (http://www.canadaeconnect.com/ and http://www.canadaeconnectblog.com/): Vancouver, November 7-9, 2007- Canadian e-Tourism Awards (http://www.canadianetourismawards.com/): Vancouver, November 8, 2007- Wired-In-Travel Conference (http://www.wiredintravel.com/): Singapore, November 29-30, 2007- Travolution Conference (http://www.travolutionconference.co.uk/): London, November 1, 2007 More information about the T-List Book: http://canadaeconnectblog.com/swag-file/conference-swag-with-a-purpose/
22 September 2007
OK so a comment on Money Direct
I have been studiously avoiding this issue but I cannot any longer. We did file in support of BTC (Go to their public website) http://btcweb.biz/.)
There are two issues here that I think people have ignored. Tim Hughes pointed out that Money Direct (the name of the JV) is an operating entity owned by Sabre that is accepting an inbound relationship with Amadeus. Approved by the EU they have wasted no time to implement the spin machine. The other issue is that the enemy here is a failure to develop a decent financial fulfillment process for the industry at a cost effective rate. For this there are two "bad boys". Expedia for paying only on an low frequency basis (quarterly for most players) and of course Pegasus for letting their service language.
Let’s be clear. The whole market needs a better way to handle financial fulfillment, currency conversion commission clearing. The high costs are eating into everyone's profits. While I applaud the initiative of the two behemoths - I believe they are the wrong player and there are a heck of a lot of other solutions in other businesses that do well. All is not lost but you will have to think about it. or contact me...
timothyo@t2impact.com
There are two issues here that I think people have ignored. Tim Hughes pointed out that Money Direct (the name of the JV) is an operating entity owned by Sabre that is accepting an inbound relationship with Amadeus. Approved by the EU they have wasted no time to implement the spin machine. The other issue is that the enemy here is a failure to develop a decent financial fulfillment process for the industry at a cost effective rate. For this there are two "bad boys". Expedia for paying only on an low frequency basis (quarterly for most players) and of course Pegasus for letting their service language.
Let’s be clear. The whole market needs a better way to handle financial fulfillment, currency conversion commission clearing. The high costs are eating into everyone's profits. While I applaud the initiative of the two behemoths - I believe they are the wrong player and there are a heck of a lot of other solutions in other businesses that do well. All is not lost but you will have to think about it. or contact me...
timothyo@t2impact.com
787 and the looming fastner crisis.
By now Boeing is having a very hard time explaining away the next delay. But as we have noted several times there are two major issues that Boeing is having with its 787 program. The most public is the Fastener issue. Yes folks there really isn’t a Home Depot aisle where you can go and get these things. They have to be custom built. Further - one heck of a lot of them need to go in the new plane.
So for the lay person - a fastener is the screws, nuts and bolts that put the plane together. After 9/11 many companies mistook the likely growth in the market for these services. This was indeed exacerbated by Boeing itself who declared they would need significantly less of them with a composite fuselage. See: (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/787family/programfacts.html ). It would have been natural to assume that there would be a significant downturn in aircraft building. As a result there was a general roll up of the players with Alcoa emerging as the big player. These 3 factors: down market, lower assumed activity, (including the drivers for innovation usually coming from the military) and the money guys taking over reduced the overall investment. Boeing is far from blameless in this affair. Their supply chain guys need to be given a royal kick for underestimating the challenge and the scale of this issue.
But it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The demand will undoubtedly drive up the price. And we know demand from the 787 camp is moving at scorching speed. Don’t forget we have seen only 3 sets of orders from the North American carriers, AC, NW and CO. What about DL and AA who both have "Preferred deals" with Boeing and large 767 fleets. And now perhaps even worse, Airbus has quietly confirmed that it s abandoning an Aluminum fuselage barrel for a full composite construction.
Our prognosis? Boeing will be hard pressed to make it fly in Q4. But they will do it. A token delivery subject to strict scrutiny of the Japan JAA and the EU/US players may mean it is only certified in Japan. But the fastener problem will persist into 2010 at least and cause delivery cut backs. Boeing's highly aggressive schedule cannot be met for at least the first 100 planes. Result - higher 767-300 rates. Better keep looking for late model 77-300ERs they are like gold dust.
At least this will mast the ther problem (software and wiring) which is not going too well either.
Cheers
Timothy
So for the lay person - a fastener is the screws, nuts and bolts that put the plane together. After 9/11 many companies mistook the likely growth in the market for these services. This was indeed exacerbated by Boeing itself who declared they would need significantly less of them with a composite fuselage. See: (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/787family/programfacts.html ). It would have been natural to assume that there would be a significant downturn in aircraft building. As a result there was a general roll up of the players with Alcoa emerging as the big player. These 3 factors: down market, lower assumed activity, (including the drivers for innovation usually coming from the military) and the money guys taking over reduced the overall investment. Boeing is far from blameless in this affair. Their supply chain guys need to be given a royal kick for underestimating the challenge and the scale of this issue.
But it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The demand will undoubtedly drive up the price. And we know demand from the 787 camp is moving at scorching speed. Don’t forget we have seen only 3 sets of orders from the North American carriers, AC, NW and CO. What about DL and AA who both have "Preferred deals" with Boeing and large 767 fleets. And now perhaps even worse, Airbus has quietly confirmed that it s abandoning an Aluminum fuselage barrel for a full composite construction.
Our prognosis? Boeing will be hard pressed to make it fly in Q4. But they will do it. A token delivery subject to strict scrutiny of the Japan JAA and the EU/US players may mean it is only certified in Japan. But the fastener problem will persist into 2010 at least and cause delivery cut backs. Boeing's highly aggressive schedule cannot be met for at least the first 100 planes. Result - higher 767-300 rates. Better keep looking for late model 77-300ERs they are like gold dust.
At least this will mast the ther problem (software and wiring) which is not going too well either.
Cheers
Timothy
15 September 2007
Stupid Visa Tricks Stops Brit Pop Invasion. Bush Adminstration Breathes Sigh of Relief
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118980966247828081.html?mod=hps_us_at_glance_pursuits
The Bush Administration and its new tool for foreign policy - the DHS/U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services - are doing more for American Isolation than the Hoover Administration or any of the inter-world war policies. New "anti-terrorist" rules are ensnaring artists in today's popular culture of music. British Bands like the Klaxons (very good BTW) and Lily Allen are being denied visas - in some cases even being turned away at arrival airports. Of course this is stupid and of course this was never supposed to happen. But it is.
As a naturalized US citizen - this writer is grateful for the opportunity that I have received. However that does not preclude me from being critical of the current Bush Administration, nor do I agree with some of the draconian regulations that now dog the process of getting even to visit (for a holiday)the good ole US of A. Many countries (Brazil for example) actively cite the US policies for raising barriers for US passport holders to enter their countries. From bitter personal experience I can assure you that it is complicated and expensive to get all these visas. I have to constantly maintain more than 1 passport (yes its legal under exceptional circumstances) for the visas I need.
Lets all just hope that the next Administration brings some sanity to the whole process. Sadly I dont think that this is likely. Personally I resign myself to the unpleasantness of the process and mourn the loss of cultural interaction. Thank god for the Internet. At least its (still) democratic and open - for all its anarchic origins.
Cheers
TIMOTHY O'NEIL-DUNNE
The Bush Administration and its new tool for foreign policy - the DHS/U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services - are doing more for American Isolation than the Hoover Administration or any of the inter-world war policies. New "anti-terrorist" rules are ensnaring artists in today's popular culture of music. British Bands like the Klaxons (very good BTW) and Lily Allen are being denied visas - in some cases even being turned away at arrival airports. Of course this is stupid and of course this was never supposed to happen. But it is.
As a naturalized US citizen - this writer is grateful for the opportunity that I have received. However that does not preclude me from being critical of the current Bush Administration, nor do I agree with some of the draconian regulations that now dog the process of getting even to visit (for a holiday)the good ole US of A. Many countries (Brazil for example) actively cite the US policies for raising barriers for US passport holders to enter their countries. From bitter personal experience I can assure you that it is complicated and expensive to get all these visas. I have to constantly maintain more than 1 passport (yes its legal under exceptional circumstances) for the visas I need.
Lets all just hope that the next Administration brings some sanity to the whole process. Sadly I dont think that this is likely. Personally I resign myself to the unpleasantness of the process and mourn the loss of cultural interaction. Thank god for the Internet. At least its (still) democratic and open - for all its anarchic origins.
Cheers
TIMOTHY O'NEIL-DUNNE
Civility disappears from the skies - loyalty suffers
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118953945479924099.html
It was really rather a pleasure flying in the post 9/11 world. There was camaraderie and a shared experience of people who all enjoyed a common bond.
Fast forward to today. Shock! Horror! - Southwest described a lady's attire as "inappropriate"! Lamar Muse must be turning in his grave. And the venerable Wall Street Jounal article entitled: Cranky Skies: FliersBehave Badly AgainAs 9/11 Era Fades.
I fly alot. And I can tell you that this is the case. People have lost that ability to demonstrate being nice. But don't necessarily blame the passengers for this. We have LESS service. There are many reasons. Here are a few: Untold thousands and thousands of customer service personnel removed from the system. Packed flights. More connections. Smaller planes. More airport congestion. bad planning by airlines etc etc.
I am afraid I do not subscibe to the position that the airlines are blameless for the ATC mess (as you can probably tell from prior posts). The results are increasingly that there is a long term dissatisfaction which will lead to a loss of brand loyalty. The airlines that are making money now are doing so at the expense of underlying core values. Cranky fliers become disloyal customers who choose against rather than for you. Beware.
It was really rather a pleasure flying in the post 9/11 world. There was camaraderie and a shared experience of people who all enjoyed a common bond.
Fast forward to today. Shock! Horror! - Southwest described a lady's attire as "inappropriate"! Lamar Muse must be turning in his grave. And the venerable Wall Street Jounal article entitled: Cranky Skies: FliersBehave Badly AgainAs 9/11 Era Fades.
I fly alot. And I can tell you that this is the case. People have lost that ability to demonstrate being nice. But don't necessarily blame the passengers for this. We have LESS service. There are many reasons. Here are a few: Untold thousands and thousands of customer service personnel removed from the system. Packed flights. More connections. Smaller planes. More airport congestion. bad planning by airlines etc etc.
I am afraid I do not subscibe to the position that the airlines are blameless for the ATC mess (as you can probably tell from prior posts). The results are increasingly that there is a long term dissatisfaction which will lead to a loss of brand loyalty. The airlines that are making money now are doing so at the expense of underlying core values. Cranky fliers become disloyal customers who choose against rather than for you. Beware.
13 September 2007
The UK passenger numbers flat ex-LHR in decline
The numbers for Air4Cast for the balance of the year are predicting another banner year in air travel. Yet there is some discouraging news for the new owners of BAA. UK traffic is just creeping along at 2% growth for the whole coutry. Which given the continued rise in regions travel means very real passenger declines at LHR and LGW. With Ryanair pulling back at STN for the winter months we may also see some real decline YoY for that airport too. Contrast this with the overall market and in particular advances at LHR's major competitors with EU in general reporting 6% plus for the year.
OK enough already, the UK government needs to step into the mess and address the rot. Of BA will move traffic from its flagship base to the Continent.
OK enough already, the UK government needs to step into the mess and address the rot. Of BA will move traffic from its flagship base to the Continent.
10 September 2007
Galileo/Worldspan Integration Team announced.
OK - So consider this my public humiliation and eating of the hat.
In early 2006 I said that Rakesh would be out of Worldspan and if not then I would be eating my hat if he was not gone by September. Seems I was right with the month - wrong with the year. So munch munch....
The team is pretty much as expected. With Galileo ranks depleted after the Blackstone acquisition it was only natural that the Worldspan team would be used to fill the spaces left. Interestingly Kevin Mooney is named Chief Commercial Officer filling in the combined role and the shoes of Ninan who follows Rakesh out the door with presumably a nice parachute.
Two interesting points emerge,
A) The HQ will remain in the UK. Gordon is not moving! However the commute from Atlanta to Langely shouldn't be too bad as long as the M25 behaves itself. The natural choice for the bulk of the operation will be Atlanta as the old Chicago UA/Apollo HQ in Rosemont was axed in the Cendant days. Parsippany may be in the Garden State but the location is not that good for the new organization. Hence our bet is that Atlanta will be named US HQ. Kansas City will probably be shuttered for good. At some time in the distant future after CITP is fully operational and United is housed in Munich - I think we can then see a rationalization of the mainframe locations. Remember no integration!!! Apollo will finally head into the sunset.
B) Bob Coggin comes in as the Vice Chairman. For him it must seem like old home week. He is very familiar with Worldspan coming from his long stint at Delta. He brings a wealth of experience and a canny mind. Congrats Bob!
The business faces one very big challenge. What to do about the PSS side of the business (aka Airline Hosting). With challenges integrating at least 2 platforms and a number of black eyes for the new IBS based AiRes solution, we expect to see the Travelport business make some moves on this in the next 12 months.
Best of luck chaps
Cheers
Timothy
In early 2006 I said that Rakesh would be out of Worldspan and if not then I would be eating my hat if he was not gone by September. Seems I was right with the month - wrong with the year. So munch munch....
The team is pretty much as expected. With Galileo ranks depleted after the Blackstone acquisition it was only natural that the Worldspan team would be used to fill the spaces left. Interestingly Kevin Mooney is named Chief Commercial Officer filling in the combined role and the shoes of Ninan who follows Rakesh out the door with presumably a nice parachute.
Two interesting points emerge,
A) The HQ will remain in the UK. Gordon is not moving! However the commute from Atlanta to Langely shouldn't be too bad as long as the M25 behaves itself. The natural choice for the bulk of the operation will be Atlanta as the old Chicago UA/Apollo HQ in Rosemont was axed in the Cendant days. Parsippany may be in the Garden State but the location is not that good for the new organization. Hence our bet is that Atlanta will be named US HQ. Kansas City will probably be shuttered for good. At some time in the distant future after CITP is fully operational and United is housed in Munich - I think we can then see a rationalization of the mainframe locations. Remember no integration!!! Apollo will finally head into the sunset.
B) Bob Coggin comes in as the Vice Chairman. For him it must seem like old home week. He is very familiar with Worldspan coming from his long stint at Delta. He brings a wealth of experience and a canny mind. Congrats Bob!
The business faces one very big challenge. What to do about the PSS side of the business (aka Airline Hosting). With challenges integrating at least 2 platforms and a number of black eyes for the new IBS based AiRes solution, we expect to see the Travelport business make some moves on this in the next 12 months.
Best of luck chaps
Cheers
Timothy
09 September 2007
Last call for paper tickets - the end of the line for paper?
With much fanfare IATA announced that it was placing its last call for paper tickets.
However let us be a bit of a naysayer here. We see there are 2 issues.
A) will ALL the world world's airlines meet the deadline?
B) is the absence of paper tickets really a savings to the airlines?
The answer to A is definitely NO. There will be (and I will eat something vile in public if anyone can prove to me that all airlines meet the May 2008 deadline). Specifically Airlines in Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East are struggling with this deadline. Some are just accepting that they will be cut off come the end of May. We believe that IATA needs to arrange some accommodation for these (typically smaller and less financially able) carriers. We are concerned that there will be a new class division of "Have" vs. "Have Not" airlines which will last for some time. Be careful IATA what you wish for.....
The issue of B is more interesting. Having spent years involved in the revenue accounting, ticketing and financial fulfillment side of air transportation - we can assure our dear readers that the processes are less than exemplary. The designs and solutions that have been implemented are rather arcane in their design and in some cases diabolical in their complexity of implementation. It is here that the LCCs have provided a lesson and a model to the rest of the Industry. Ticketless - IE a completely different approach that eliminates the need for even a notional ticket (as e-tickets do) - is a far better solution for simplification and reduction in paperwork and administration. We believe that after May 2008 - and independently of IATA - we will see a greater move away from the e-ticket idea to a pure ticketless implementation.
Of course this begs the question - if we have pure ticketless - should IATA have any say or even sponsorship of such systems as BSPs? Given the removal of anti-trust immunity and the general improvement in commercial conditions worldwide, we believe now is a good time to start to think of a Non-BSP world. If IATA was really keen to reduce the complexity of the business then they should set a date (2010 sounds nice) when they sunset BSP.
OK Mr. Bisignani, why not consider this for the future? Why not drive this home. It would result in a far better solution for the world and a significant savings for the world's airlines not to mention a reduction in your own organization which in turn would result in savings to your members.
However let us be a bit of a naysayer here. We see there are 2 issues.
A) will ALL the world world's airlines meet the deadline?
B) is the absence of paper tickets really a savings to the airlines?
The answer to A is definitely NO. There will be (and I will eat something vile in public if anyone can prove to me that all airlines meet the May 2008 deadline). Specifically Airlines in Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East are struggling with this deadline. Some are just accepting that they will be cut off come the end of May. We believe that IATA needs to arrange some accommodation for these (typically smaller and less financially able) carriers. We are concerned that there will be a new class division of "Have" vs. "Have Not" airlines which will last for some time. Be careful IATA what you wish for.....
The issue of B is more interesting. Having spent years involved in the revenue accounting, ticketing and financial fulfillment side of air transportation - we can assure our dear readers that the processes are less than exemplary. The designs and solutions that have been implemented are rather arcane in their design and in some cases diabolical in their complexity of implementation. It is here that the LCCs have provided a lesson and a model to the rest of the Industry. Ticketless - IE a completely different approach that eliminates the need for even a notional ticket (as e-tickets do) - is a far better solution for simplification and reduction in paperwork and administration. We believe that after May 2008 - and independently of IATA - we will see a greater move away from the e-ticket idea to a pure ticketless implementation.
Of course this begs the question - if we have pure ticketless - should IATA have any say or even sponsorship of such systems as BSPs? Given the removal of anti-trust immunity and the general improvement in commercial conditions worldwide, we believe now is a good time to start to think of a Non-BSP world. If IATA was really keen to reduce the complexity of the business then they should set a date (2010 sounds nice) when they sunset BSP.
OK Mr. Bisignani, why not consider this for the future? Why not drive this home. It would result in a far better solution for the world and a significant savings for the world's airlines not to mention a reduction in your own organization which in turn would result in savings to your members.
08 September 2007
Sabre and Amadeus head for full investigation of proposed JV
The EU has just announced that it has deemed that the competition issue between these two behemoths deserves full investigation:
Origial Case Number 2007/c 190.
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/oj/2007/c_190/c_19020070815en00090009.pdf
However in typical EC style you still have only until the 12th September to comment.
Any concentration of GDS type power even at this JV level is in our view likely to result in reduced competition. While we applaud the need for the market to have a better way of processing hotel transactions - we remain skeptical on the value of these two players providing it.
Origial Case Number 2007/c 190.
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/oj/2007/c_190/c_19020070815en00090009.pdf
However in typical EC style you still have only until the 12th September to comment.
Any concentration of GDS type power even at this JV level is in our view likely to result in reduced competition. While we applaud the need for the market to have a better way of processing hotel transactions - we remain skeptical on the value of these two players providing it.
04 September 2007
Airlines adjust after Summer of discontent
Great piece in the (still) independent WSJ. http://online.wsj.com/article/the_middle_seat.html?mod=djemseat
The airlines opine that they have been hit by a triple whammy: High Load factors (duh!!!) ATC delays (if all else fails blame the government), The weather (act of God). They can apparently handle 2 out of 3 but not all 3. Apparently Airlines cannot make bad decisions that contribute to the problem…
As a result they are going to operate differently and hold back seats (read this as still overbook just not as badly), use spare aircraft and add flex into the timing.
OK Chaps (Mr. and Mrs. Airline) - I have a suggestion for you. How about using less SMALLER aircraft and bite the bullet on capacity constraints. The overuse of RJs is the fundamental root cause of the increase in aircraft system resources without a corresponding increase in passenger capability or a pricing model that accommodates this significant upsurge in traffic without necessarily increasing the system capacity for passengers.
I have a further suggestion for the FAA. Guys is this a wakeup call for VLJs? If you were to reprice the usage of the scarce airport tarmac, and flight pathways - then this problem can be ameliorated BEFORE it hits us.
But perhaps its just better to blame the Government and the weather than actually doing the right thing.
One day Congress will wake up to the problem and boot in a quick fix.
The airlines opine that they have been hit by a triple whammy: High Load factors (duh!!!) ATC delays (if all else fails blame the government), The weather (act of God). They can apparently handle 2 out of 3 but not all 3. Apparently Airlines cannot make bad decisions that contribute to the problem…
As a result they are going to operate differently and hold back seats (read this as still overbook just not as badly), use spare aircraft and add flex into the timing.
OK Chaps (Mr. and Mrs. Airline) - I have a suggestion for you. How about using less SMALLER aircraft and bite the bullet on capacity constraints. The overuse of RJs is the fundamental root cause of the increase in aircraft system resources without a corresponding increase in passenger capability or a pricing model that accommodates this significant upsurge in traffic without necessarily increasing the system capacity for passengers.
I have a further suggestion for the FAA. Guys is this a wakeup call for VLJs? If you were to reprice the usage of the scarce airport tarmac, and flight pathways - then this problem can be ameliorated BEFORE it hits us.
But perhaps its just better to blame the Government and the weather than actually doing the right thing.
One day Congress will wake up to the problem and boot in a quick fix.
03 September 2007
Jim leaves DL - A job well done + NW/DL
The quiet half of the Jim and Gerry show at DL has finally announced his exit with a generous severance package. Entirely deserved in our opinion. While Gerry was very much the public face, Jim slaved away at the detail. Incoming CEO Richard Anderson has big shoes to fill. But its a clean break and whether or not the oft quoted NW/DL merger of champions comes about, at least it will be based on a clear and open state of play.
From our perspective we believe that a merger of DL and NW will not serve the 2 companies shareholders nor the market in general well. Both players are still reeling from several years in protection and have a difficult enough road to follow without the distraction of such a merger. CVG and MEM would be the immediate victims but while the stockmarket in general may applaud fortress hubs in MSP, DTW and SLC all of them including JFK and ATL are under attack from smaller more nimble players.
Hey Mr Anderson - just say no
From our perspective we believe that a merger of DL and NW will not serve the 2 companies shareholders nor the market in general well. Both players are still reeling from several years in protection and have a difficult enough road to follow without the distraction of such a merger. CVG and MEM would be the immediate victims but while the stockmarket in general may applaud fortress hubs in MSP, DTW and SLC all of them including JFK and ATL are under attack from smaller more nimble players.
Hey Mr Anderson - just say no
Brace yourselves - 787 delay story coming
Boeing is playing down rumours (now fact in our opinion) that the 787 program is running behind schedule.
With May delivery dates looking increasingly shaky, the Boeing spin machine is in full force. On Wednesday the scheduled 787 quarterly briefing should be an interesting affair.
While we doubt we shall see 787s parked in Everett with concrete blocks instead of engines (like the 747 early stage program) there is a now a clear likelihood that the first customers will not be getting their full complement of planes on time.
The culprit(s) the process of reinstalling fasteners for the prototype and yes our old friend software integration are probably the candidates for the delay. We personally believe that the 787 will fly in 2007 Q4 with deliveries coming in before the start of the second half of 2008. Even so that is a very aggressive schedule.
Boeing is not infallible and this goes on to just show that launching a new aircraft is no trivial exercise. Airbus is probably not going to be able to take advantage of this situation. But at least they can take some comfort that they are not the only player to suffer. (No comments please on Embraer's recent melt down of its supply chain).
Coming up - likely that Boeing will shortly formally announce the 787-10 to compete with the higher end A350XWB. Boeing is not shy in letting the new aircraft cannibalize the market for the older model 777-200s.
Stay tuned people. Spin at its finest coming your way.
With May delivery dates looking increasingly shaky, the Boeing spin machine is in full force. On Wednesday the scheduled 787 quarterly briefing should be an interesting affair.
While we doubt we shall see 787s parked in Everett with concrete blocks instead of engines (like the 747 early stage program) there is a now a clear likelihood that the first customers will not be getting their full complement of planes on time.
The culprit(s) the process of reinstalling fasteners for the prototype and yes our old friend software integration are probably the candidates for the delay. We personally believe that the 787 will fly in 2007 Q4 with deliveries coming in before the start of the second half of 2008. Even so that is a very aggressive schedule.
Boeing is not infallible and this goes on to just show that launching a new aircraft is no trivial exercise. Airbus is probably not going to be able to take advantage of this situation. But at least they can take some comfort that they are not the only player to suffer. (No comments please on Embraer's recent melt down of its supply chain).
Coming up - likely that Boeing will shortly formally announce the 787-10 to compete with the higher end A350XWB. Boeing is not shy in letting the new aircraft cannibalize the market for the older model 777-200s.
Stay tuned people. Spin at its finest coming your way.
Back from Holiday... lots to chat about
Sorry we have been quiet during August but the team decided to take some tme off. We will be back in full production later this week as we review the current trends and provide some of our usual milquetoast intensive analysis.
Cheers
Cheers
02 August 2007
Midwest and AirTran - all over bar the shouting?
The inevitable is almost here. AirTran subject to a last minute stumble will finally be able to gobble up the smaller MidWest Express.
The Little Airline that started out as the Kleenex Express will likely cease to exist and Air Tran will have a new mid western hub in MKE.
We are suckers for the little guy but the economics of the airline biz does not allow a premium domestic service to operate in this manner. So the brave experiment will likely end early next year if not before
Will AirTran allow fresh cookies on board. I doubt it. Joe Leonard is trying to lose weight
Cheers
Timothy
The Little Airline that started out as the Kleenex Express will likely cease to exist and Air Tran will have a new mid western hub in MKE.
We are suckers for the little guy but the economics of the airline biz does not allow a premium domestic service to operate in this manner. So the brave experiment will likely end early next year if not before
Will AirTran allow fresh cookies on board. I doubt it. Joe Leonard is trying to lose weight
Cheers
Timothy
Is Iberia worth it – or will the Spectre of Qantas still haunt?
Iberia is at the moment being poked and prodded like a contestant at a very ritzy beauty pageant. With only the Joint TPG/BA team allowed anywhere near the books – you can ask why anyone would want to pay for the company with one of the most bloated payrolls in Europe. Simple. 12 straight years of profit. Oh yes and add in the combined effect of the AF-KL deal as a model and you have an interesting cocktail that someone clearly thinks is worth it.
So what do we think?
Without touching the books and with only public reports to work with we feel it comes down to a certain amount of cojones and ego. BA is literally challenging or daring LH to come out and play. The latter has effectively grown by stealth through defusing competition and broadening its base while at the same time building a set of vassal states to feed its dual hubs in FRA and MUC.
Effectively we are neutral on it. We can’t see the large scale synergies emerging because the London Madrid Axis has been in place for many years. Unlike AF KL who were in different leagues and therefore could engage in joint value, BA and IB wont achieve anything like that. Sure BA will have a growth opportunity in LATAM (one of the bright growth spots in international inter-regional travel) but it is still a small base. IB won’t benefit because it is a mature market and there isn’t the value proposition to move to BA's core markets such as Africa and the orient. So the only other reason for doing it is defense. While there are some short term gains – long term value is far from assured.
Risk factors abound:
Open skies on the transatlantic
Premium niche carriers
LCCs especially Ryanair, Easyjet and Air Berlin
Etc
So we remain ambivalent to the deal. We think that it’s necessary but fundamentally we don’t like the match up.
Cheers
Timothy
So what do we think?
Without touching the books and with only public reports to work with we feel it comes down to a certain amount of cojones and ego. BA is literally challenging or daring LH to come out and play. The latter has effectively grown by stealth through defusing competition and broadening its base while at the same time building a set of vassal states to feed its dual hubs in FRA and MUC.
Effectively we are neutral on it. We can’t see the large scale synergies emerging because the London Madrid Axis has been in place for many years. Unlike AF KL who were in different leagues and therefore could engage in joint value, BA and IB wont achieve anything like that. Sure BA will have a growth opportunity in LATAM (one of the bright growth spots in international inter-regional travel) but it is still a small base. IB won’t benefit because it is a mature market and there isn’t the value proposition to move to BA's core markets such as Africa and the orient. So the only other reason for doing it is defense. While there are some short term gains – long term value is far from assured.
Risk factors abound:
Open skies on the transatlantic
Premium niche carriers
LCCs especially Ryanair, Easyjet and Air Berlin
Etc
So we remain ambivalent to the deal. We think that it’s necessary but fundamentally we don’t like the match up.
Cheers
Timothy
Battle lines drawn Big Airlines vs Big wigs Corporate Plane toys
Here at T2 we have been a big critic of the current "market" based system for allocating Air Space resources such as ATC.
The big airlines have launched into this using a somewhat lame metaphor. Welcome to the party boys! A new website has been launched http://www.smartskies.org/ which aims to put the blame for ATC gridlock at the door of Corporate Jet users.
Not so fast everyone. Surely Delta and others are just as conflicted. Since Delta's Elite service is actually part of the enemy of this community. http://www.airelite.com/ So is Delta speaking out of 2 sides of its mouth. You betcha. But lets not stop here. One of our other gripes with the US Airlines is their diversion of resources by using more smaller planes (IE less Air Space efficient) aircraft to service domestic points. We have a raft of studies that show the air traffic (measured in aircraft movements) is increasing much more rapidly vs total passengers (RPMs). Yes Delta - your mainline fleet reassignment has resulted in more planes in the air which are less efficient. I am just picking on Delta because they are being a particular hypocrite in this debate.
Moral of the story - let he that is innocent cast the first stone.
But the real urgent issue is a full and open debate on the true cost of the Air Space. For that I believe the smartskies.org website is a useful forum for the debate. So everyone - lets have a full and sane (that means rational) debate and come to a long term solution. The old devil worship of General Aviation should not be sacrificed at the alter of public opinion. The FAA needs to fix what is broken and to use a rational pricing mechanism that recognizes the true cost of the Air Space, the runway space and the bits in between.
Cheers
Timothy
The big airlines have launched into this using a somewhat lame metaphor. Welcome to the party boys! A new website has been launched http://www.smartskies.org/ which aims to put the blame for ATC gridlock at the door of Corporate Jet users.
Not so fast everyone. Surely Delta and others are just as conflicted. Since Delta's Elite service is actually part of the enemy of this community. http://www.airelite.com/ So is Delta speaking out of 2 sides of its mouth. You betcha. But lets not stop here. One of our other gripes with the US Airlines is their diversion of resources by using more smaller planes (IE less Air Space efficient) aircraft to service domestic points. We have a raft of studies that show the air traffic (measured in aircraft movements) is increasing much more rapidly vs total passengers (RPMs). Yes Delta - your mainline fleet reassignment has resulted in more planes in the air which are less efficient. I am just picking on Delta because they are being a particular hypocrite in this debate.
Moral of the story - let he that is innocent cast the first stone.
But the real urgent issue is a full and open debate on the true cost of the Air Space. For that I believe the smartskies.org website is a useful forum for the debate. So everyone - lets have a full and sane (that means rational) debate and come to a long term solution. The old devil worship of General Aviation should not be sacrificed at the alter of public opinion. The FAA needs to fix what is broken and to use a rational pricing mechanism that recognizes the true cost of the Air Space, the runway space and the bits in between.
Cheers
Timothy
30 July 2007
Watch out Europe - here comes Virgin
Great article today in WSJ on interview with Steve Ridgeway MD of Virgin Atlantic.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118575235393381736.html?mod=hps_us_editors_picks
One critical element is what VS will be doing to combat the loss of its oligopoly position at LHR. We believe that VS will be taking on weak carriers and uncompetitive premium product airlines. Watch out all of you EU carriers with a slightly inferior product (AZ you have been warned) because Virgin has you in their sights. Air France's legendary surly flight attendants better go to charm school now! Also watch out for additional markets with high premium traffic and low transatlantic lift. Specifically look at markets like DC, Seattle, Denver and Vancouver. As a clue look at the coming route map for Virgin America.
Worth the read - interesting battle. VS will be battling (like BA who is similarly affected) the peer and above crowd (Read BA and LH) and now the niche carriers such as L'Avion, Maxjet etc.
Competition is definitely out there. Long may it rear its pretty head
Cheers
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118575235393381736.html?mod=hps_us_editors_picks
One critical element is what VS will be doing to combat the loss of its oligopoly position at LHR. We believe that VS will be taking on weak carriers and uncompetitive premium product airlines. Watch out all of you EU carriers with a slightly inferior product (AZ you have been warned) because Virgin has you in their sights. Air France's legendary surly flight attendants better go to charm school now! Also watch out for additional markets with high premium traffic and low transatlantic lift. Specifically look at markets like DC, Seattle, Denver and Vancouver. As a clue look at the coming route map for Virgin America.
Worth the read - interesting battle. VS will be battling (like BA who is similarly affected) the peer and above crowd (Read BA and LH) and now the niche carriers such as L'Avion, Maxjet etc.
Competition is definitely out there. Long may it rear its pretty head
Cheers
27 July 2007
BCD fights for rationality in Global Distribution
A well meaning paper written by the folks at BCD Travel is well worth the read. http://www.bcdtravel.com/aw/home/Corporate_Page/en-us/Content_5811652/Document_centre_5912426/~bmk/White_Papers/
The points it lays out are clearly expressed and mostly valid.
There are two points that we think should be added to the debate. So since we have the pulpit - we will exercise our rights:
1. Fragmentation of distribution actually benefits TMCs who can now show their value by being the real aggregator of content - rather than just the re-presenter of information.
2. The true cost of distribution has not fallen - either for the Airlines nor the users of travel.
We will continue to push these points in coming weeks and months as we believe that there is a sea change of distribution re-alignment occurring. One thing is for sure. Full Content deals were not the great seminal moment of change that the airlines thought it would be. Rather it has resulted in an increase in distribution costs as the GDSs unbundled their offerings while rejoicing in the the handcuffs they have placed on the airlines signing such deals.
The points it lays out are clearly expressed and mostly valid.
There are two points that we think should be added to the debate. So since we have the pulpit - we will exercise our rights:
1. Fragmentation of distribution actually benefits TMCs who can now show their value by being the real aggregator of content - rather than just the re-presenter of information.
2. The true cost of distribution has not fallen - either for the Airlines nor the users of travel.
We will continue to push these points in coming weeks and months as we believe that there is a sea change of distribution re-alignment occurring. One thing is for sure. Full Content deals were not the great seminal moment of change that the airlines thought it would be. Rather it has resulted in an increase in distribution costs as the GDSs unbundled their offerings while rejoicing in the the handcuffs they have placed on the airlines signing such deals.
24 July 2007
Wrath of Kahn - what is his legacy
The nice old man with the youthful grin is largely ignored whenever he travels. Yet he has had more impact on Airline Travel than anyone on the planet. Bar none.
In Tuesday's USA Today there is a lovely article on the father of de-regulation. http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/travel/2007-07-23-alfred-kahn_N.htm?csp=34
There is a of course a huge debate by many people on the long term impact. Economically it was largely inevitable. De-regulation would happen. If not under the Carter administration then for sure under the Reagan one that followed.
However there are still some who are guilty of not making the sea change easier through the regulatory and economic framework. Inappropriate and just plain lame government action or inaction is the root cause of today's issues. Now is it fixable. Sure. But fixing things that are broken are always more difficult than preventing things.
There are no excuses. The numbers do not lie.
For those who think that this is a pure economic solution - then that is wrong. Sorry - I am a great believer in the free market but by definition there has to be a fair market. Thus far the market is badly organized by the market's managers. That needs fixing. There needs to be new rules for a true market with all stakeholders acknowledged. (See our blog from yesterday on the Air Space Control system).
For those who want a return to full regulation. Well that's just insane.
So there needs to be a rational approach. There is no rocket science to this. Just plain common sense. Do we have it?
Let’s hope so. Professor Kahn did. Let’s not waste his legacy. Let’s celebrate his achievements and our benefits but fixing the Air Traffic mess permanently
Cheers
In Tuesday's USA Today there is a lovely article on the father of de-regulation. http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/travel/2007-07-23-alfred-kahn_N.htm?csp=34
There is a of course a huge debate by many people on the long term impact. Economically it was largely inevitable. De-regulation would happen. If not under the Carter administration then for sure under the Reagan one that followed.
However there are still some who are guilty of not making the sea change easier through the regulatory and economic framework. Inappropriate and just plain lame government action or inaction is the root cause of today's issues. Now is it fixable. Sure. But fixing things that are broken are always more difficult than preventing things.
There are no excuses. The numbers do not lie.
For those who think that this is a pure economic solution - then that is wrong. Sorry - I am a great believer in the free market but by definition there has to be a fair market. Thus far the market is badly organized by the market's managers. That needs fixing. There needs to be new rules for a true market with all stakeholders acknowledged. (See our blog from yesterday on the Air Space Control system).
For those who want a return to full regulation. Well that's just insane.
So there needs to be a rational approach. There is no rocket science to this. Just plain common sense. Do we have it?
Let’s hope so. Professor Kahn did. Let’s not waste his legacy. Let’s celebrate his achievements and our benefits but fixing the Air Traffic mess permanently
Cheers
23 July 2007
Pricing Power hits - er India?
The headline is not a mistake.
While there has been a lot of attention paid to the stellar growth of the Online Travel Sector in India and the spectacular explosion of LCC traffic - the hotel sector has been quietly suffering. There are essentially no hotel rooms in India. So anyone with any can charge a premium. Up till now the paucity of product has been tempered by the lack of available distribution channels. With all the Online players and even the airlines now able to offer hotel rooms in combination or seperately - the hotelliers can rightly flex their muscles. In a recent report in Travel Weekly OZ one tour operator described the situation as "out of control". Duh... wake up people. Just look at the US market and for a REALLY tight supply situation look no further than the world's most expensive city... Moscow
While there has been a lot of attention paid to the stellar growth of the Online Travel Sector in India and the spectacular explosion of LCC traffic - the hotel sector has been quietly suffering. There are essentially no hotel rooms in India. So anyone with any can charge a premium. Up till now the paucity of product has been tempered by the lack of available distribution channels. With all the Online players and even the airlines now able to offer hotel rooms in combination or seperately - the hotelliers can rightly flex their muscles. In a recent report in Travel Weekly OZ one tour operator described the situation as "out of control". Duh... wake up people. Just look at the US market and for a REALLY tight supply situation look no further than the world's most expensive city... Moscow
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