Trying to find a way to book travel around Europe is usually pretty straightforward.
But the much ballyhooed combination of high speed rail lines is a real waste of time.
www.railteam.eu is a completely useless site.
Lets just hope this is a Rail equivalent of a notice board telling you the train MIGHT be coming. Clearly on time is not a great train strength.
Cheers
Timothy
24 January 2008
WIT teams up with ITB-Asia
After three successful years of running one of the best conferences anywhere, Siew Hoon Yeoh has added yet another partner to her roster.
Not content to be working just with the likes of PhocusWright, her conference WIT - Web in Travel - is teaming up to complement the ITB-Asia Trade Show which will run adjacent to and at the same time as WIT (October21-22 2008).The Expo starts on October 22 and runs for 3 days.
Asia is just different and Singapore is one of the main commercial hubs of the region so its location is perfect. Having attended and contributed at the first three conferences, I can tell you that this is a meeting that doesn't leave you unsatisfied.
For people like me who attend conferences worldwide mostly because we have to, every year the value of any onference (selfishly) is boiled down to 2 basic propositions:
1. the Content - am I going to learn something and will it benefit me later?
2. the people who attend – is this a good networking opportunity for existing and new clients?
Of course what makes it work is the secret ingredient of the organization.
This is where Siew Hoon shines. Managing to challenge both left and right brain simultaneously is no mean feat in the face of so many other conferences and as we know there are really way too many of them, many of little value. The content at WIT and its audiences are some of the best I have ever seen. The speakers are not the same old boring industry pundits. The conversations after the sessions always animated and energizing.
Adding in the ITB Asia for a trade show makes it really valuable to the audience. For ITB Asia goers it's a win too for networking and great content.
Go... even if you don't want to hear me speak ;-)
www.thetransitcafe.com/wit and www.itb-asia.com
Not content to be working just with the likes of PhocusWright, her conference WIT - Web in Travel - is teaming up to complement the ITB-Asia Trade Show which will run adjacent to and at the same time as WIT (October21-22 2008).The Expo starts on October 22 and runs for 3 days.
Asia is just different and Singapore is one of the main commercial hubs of the region so its location is perfect. Having attended and contributed at the first three conferences, I can tell you that this is a meeting that doesn't leave you unsatisfied.
For people like me who attend conferences worldwide mostly because we have to, every year the value of any onference (selfishly) is boiled down to 2 basic propositions:
1. the Content - am I going to learn something and will it benefit me later?
2. the people who attend – is this a good networking opportunity for existing and new clients?
Of course what makes it work is the secret ingredient of the organization.
This is where Siew Hoon shines. Managing to challenge both left and right brain simultaneously is no mean feat in the face of so many other conferences and as we know there are really way too many of them, many of little value. The content at WIT and its audiences are some of the best I have ever seen. The speakers are not the same old boring industry pundits. The conversations after the sessions always animated and energizing.
Adding in the ITB Asia for a trade show makes it really valuable to the audience. For ITB Asia goers it's a win too for networking and great content.
Go... even if you don't want to hear me speak ;-)
www.thetransitcafe.com/wit and www.itb-asia.com
23 January 2008
Little Trouble in Big China - the China Eastern Saga
Some of you (us) might be just a little confused in the shenanigans going on over at China Eastern. I know I am.
This doesn't make sense.
Singapore Airlines (SQ) made a play To take a minority stake in the Chinese airline (MU). It made sense. Bringing in Western Style discipline but with a distinctly Asian style that SQ has made all its own. Bringing MU up to World class standards wa very attractive to all concerned.
However not EVERYBODY agreed.
China's big fish airline Air China (CA) doesn't like too much competition. It is much happier if there is fractured and unaligned or weak competition. Oh yes and CA's parent China National Aviation Corp sits on MU's board. So just before the end of last year, China National Aviation Corp started making public noises about how it didn't like the merger and that it would offer a lot of money for a much larger stake in MU. Before you can say Kung Fu - they veto the Tamasek/SQ deal and then offer $1.9 Bn for 30% of China Eastern.
To nobody's surprise this was rejected by MU's management and board. At the same time Air China offered a tie up alliance with MU. Again rejected.
Now comes news that MU has jumped into the other side with an alliance with fellow struggler China Southern (CZ). Are you keeping up so far?
So let's see if we can sort out the alliance players here.
MU is not a member of any alliance.
SQ is in Star
CA just joined Star
CZ just joined Skyteam
CX (CA's partner and cross shareholding) is in OneWorld.
So what is the likely outcome?
For veteran China watchers like us... this is just another nice example of the convoluted arrangements in the Middle Kingdom. It will ultimately have a happy ending. Just don't expect one any time soon and the outcome will be a true example of face saving and complexity.
Got it?
And another thing... are alliances really that useful for consumers?
This doesn't make sense.
Singapore Airlines (SQ) made a play To take a minority stake in the Chinese airline (MU). It made sense. Bringing in Western Style discipline but with a distinctly Asian style that SQ has made all its own. Bringing MU up to World class standards wa very attractive to all concerned.
However not EVERYBODY agreed.
China's big fish airline Air China (CA) doesn't like too much competition. It is much happier if there is fractured and unaligned or weak competition. Oh yes and CA's parent China National Aviation Corp sits on MU's board. So just before the end of last year, China National Aviation Corp started making public noises about how it didn't like the merger and that it would offer a lot of money for a much larger stake in MU. Before you can say Kung Fu - they veto the Tamasek/SQ deal and then offer $1.9 Bn for 30% of China Eastern.
To nobody's surprise this was rejected by MU's management and board. At the same time Air China offered a tie up alliance with MU. Again rejected.
Now comes news that MU has jumped into the other side with an alliance with fellow struggler China Southern (CZ). Are you keeping up so far?
So let's see if we can sort out the alliance players here.
MU is not a member of any alliance.
SQ is in Star
CA just joined Star
CZ just joined Skyteam
CX (CA's partner and cross shareholding) is in OneWorld.
So what is the likely outcome?
For veteran China watchers like us... this is just another nice example of the convoluted arrangements in the Middle Kingdom. It will ultimately have a happy ending. Just don't expect one any time soon and the outcome will be a true example of face saving and complexity.
Got it?
And another thing... are alliances really that useful for consumers?
22 January 2008
So LH drops a rather large bomb on the German market
...and Austrian, Lichtenstein and Switzerland...
Having read the document and discussed the situation with a number of players inside and outside the Germanic markets - I believe that we are indeed achieving a tipping point of fundamental change in European distribution of airfares.
Here is the article and analysis from Michele MacDonald in her excellent newsletter TTU - Travel Technology Update and reprinted in ATW - Air Transport World.
Here is the public link where you can read the article.
http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=11477
Lufthansa is able to leverage its not inconsiderable market power within its home markets and those of its vassal carriers - Swiss Air Lines and Austria Airlines in their respective home markets.
This event is analogous to the expiration of the DCA contracts in the USA market. Clearly a lot of legal eagles have been working on this for some time!
For those of you who have been waiting for the other shoe to fall in Europe - folks this is it. Don't wait any longer. Go make sure you have an independent solution that allows GDS and non-GDS content to be combined in your own environment. Hopefully you can make a euro or two at it.
Cheers
Timothy
Having read the document and discussed the situation with a number of players inside and outside the Germanic markets - I believe that we are indeed achieving a tipping point of fundamental change in European distribution of airfares.
Here is the article and analysis from Michele MacDonald in her excellent newsletter TTU - Travel Technology Update and reprinted in ATW - Air Transport World.
Here is the public link where you can read the article.
http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=11477
Lufthansa is able to leverage its not inconsiderable market power within its home markets and those of its vassal carriers - Swiss Air Lines and Austria Airlines in their respective home markets.
This event is analogous to the expiration of the DCA contracts in the USA market. Clearly a lot of legal eagles have been working on this for some time!
For those of you who have been waiting for the other shoe to fall in Europe - folks this is it. Don't wait any longer. Go make sure you have an independent solution that allows GDS and non-GDS content to be combined in your own environment. Hopefully you can make a euro or two at it.
Cheers
Timothy
21 January 2008
Finally a Green Conference....
While it may almost seem to be an oxymoron to promote Green via a conference, it is indeed a subject that we need to take far more seriously.
Aviation is generally acknowledged as being only a relatively small contributor to Carbon based emissions. But that should not deter the entire air transportation system - from baggage handling all the way through to reservations systems - from getting behind the movement.
I highly encourage you - if you are able to check out at www.greenskies.com being organized for May 21-23 in that highly eco friendly place Orlando!
Think green and responsible in all that you do.
Cheers
Timothy
PS if you are interested - please ping me for a copy of our white paper. "It isn't easy being green or is it?"
Aviation is generally acknowledged as being only a relatively small contributor to Carbon based emissions. But that should not deter the entire air transportation system - from baggage handling all the way through to reservations systems - from getting behind the movement.
I highly encourage you - if you are able to check out at www.greenskies.com being organized for May 21-23 in that highly eco friendly place Orlando!
Think green and responsible in all that you do.
Cheers
Timothy
PS if you are interested - please ping me for a copy of our white paper. "It isn't easy being green or is it?"
Control? What is the definition of control?
According to an evaluation published by USA Today and the FT - the results of a merger between DL and UAL would be control of approx 25% of the US Domestic lift. If DL merges with NW the number falls to 22%. If UAL and CO merge then the number is closer to 23%. This could then force AA to merge with US which would be even higher. Thus creating a big 3 airlines group.
In any case such a consolidation would result in significant oligopoly power for the surviving companies.
I note that there has been a long held law that prevents foreign ownership control of ANY US carrier to exceed 24.9%. So if we apply such logic control is defined by this number.
The idea that a small number of airlines could hold the rest of the country to ransom remains a very real threat.
So again I will say - JUST SAY NO to this idea of the mergers. I hotly dispute Gordon Bethune's position - much though he is to be admired for turning around CO. IE that the mergers benefit the consumers of America.
Follow this wisely.
If you ever want to see the impact of consolidation - may I suggest you ask people who live in 2 communities: St Louis and Pittsburgh.
Cheers
Timothy
In any case such a consolidation would result in significant oligopoly power for the surviving companies.
I note that there has been a long held law that prevents foreign ownership control of ANY US carrier to exceed 24.9%. So if we apply such logic control is defined by this number.
The idea that a small number of airlines could hold the rest of the country to ransom remains a very real threat.
So again I will say - JUST SAY NO to this idea of the mergers. I hotly dispute Gordon Bethune's position - much though he is to be admired for turning around CO. IE that the mergers benefit the consumers of America.
Follow this wisely.
If you ever want to see the impact of consolidation - may I suggest you ask people who live in 2 communities: St Louis and Pittsburgh.
Cheers
Timothy
18 January 2008
More on BA038. Airframe headed for Steptoe and Son.
Despite the great performance of the BA flight crew:
Captain Peter Burkill
Sr FO John Coward
FO Conor Magenis
...It is unlikely that the British Airways 777 is salvageable. It is currently being chopped up in situ into chunks small enough to haul away. With the collapse of he undercarriage and the significant impact on the engines - the latter are also likely not to be candidates for reuse.
As far as we can tell according to several databases this represents only the second 777 to be removed from flying. The first - an ex Varig 777 was so clapped out when returned to the owner that is was sold for scrap. Out of a total of 687 delivered that is not a bad record.
It shows the robustness of the design and it cannot be stressed strongly enough the correct interaction of the major factors: Crew training, Airplane strength. For BA with 43 -er make that 42 of both GE (29) and RR (16) powered airframes, they and all other operators will want to know what happened.
So do we
Cheers
Timothy
Captain Peter Burkill
Sr FO John Coward
FO Conor Magenis
...It is unlikely that the British Airways 777 is salvageable. It is currently being chopped up in situ into chunks small enough to haul away. With the collapse of he undercarriage and the significant impact on the engines - the latter are also likely not to be candidates for reuse.
As far as we can tell according to several databases this represents only the second 777 to be removed from flying. The first - an ex Varig 777 was so clapped out when returned to the owner that is was sold for scrap. Out of a total of 687 delivered that is not a bad record.
It shows the robustness of the design and it cannot be stressed strongly enough the correct interaction of the major factors: Crew training, Airplane strength. For BA with 43 -er make that 42 of both GE (29) and RR (16) powered airframes, they and all other operators will want to know what happened.
So do we
Cheers
Timothy
Toppling the Giants - USA and Expedia
OK this was a somewhat misleading headline but it made you look!!!!
2 reports published today show how the world is changing.
In online CHINA finished just behind the USA and will easily pass the former leader in a matter of days as the world's largest Internet market. Lest we think otherwise it is not a fair comparison. These are in total numbers and of course the definition of the experience in a Chinese Internet cafe is vastly different from the high-speed surfing we can do at home in the USA. Still a seismic shift and we should all bow for a moment and reflect. OK? Done
In the UK Hitwise is reporting that longtime travel category leader Expedia UK (which I had a "small" hand is starting) has been knocked off its perch by TUI/Thomsons of all people. That was definitely interesting!
So changes abound
Cheers
Timothy
2 reports published today show how the world is changing.
In online CHINA finished just behind the USA and will easily pass the former leader in a matter of days as the world's largest Internet market. Lest we think otherwise it is not a fair comparison. These are in total numbers and of course the definition of the experience in a Chinese Internet cafe is vastly different from the high-speed surfing we can do at home in the USA. Still a seismic shift and we should all bow for a moment and reflect. OK? Done
In the UK Hitwise is reporting that longtime travel category leader Expedia UK (which I had a "small" hand is starting) has been knocked off its perch by TUI/Thomsons of all people. That was definitely interesting!
So changes abound
Cheers
Timothy
17 January 2008
Air Union Appoints DG; moves closer to integration
Air Union the Russian association of several airlines anchored by KrasAir has approved the appointment of Boris (no relation to Roman) Abromovich as Director General. Last May they approved the creation of the holding company that will formally integrate the alliance into a single legal entity.
The current partners also now own Malev (Hungarian Airlines) as well as its Russian component carriers: Domodedovo Airlines, KrasAir, Omskavia, Samara Airlines, Sibaviatrans.
Air Union is emerging as a strong challenger for the number 2 slot with Sibir S7 (Formerly Siberian Airlines). With the formal creation of Air Union there is clear water between the top 3 groupings and the rest of the remaining pack of Russian carriers. The three players are:
Aeroflot - Russian International (including Aeroflot Nord)
Sibir S7
Air Union.
These 3 are now the leading domestic airlines. The only other carrier of note is the independent airline TransAero who now seems to make most of its money shuttling its ancient 11 747s (200s, 300s and a single -400) between cold weather locations in Moscow and St Petersburg and warm weather locations in Egypt.
The Russian market after falling from a high of 160 Million pax at the height of the Soviet Union to below 4 million pax is now running a respectable 40 million pax a year and very strong growth.
Maturing is setting in. With the strong restrictions on the purchase of Western Airline equipment - it seems likely that these 4 players will dominate the market for some time to come.
The current partners also now own Malev (Hungarian Airlines) as well as its Russian component carriers: Domodedovo Airlines, KrasAir, Omskavia, Samara Airlines, Sibaviatrans.
Air Union is emerging as a strong challenger for the number 2 slot with Sibir S7 (Formerly Siberian Airlines). With the formal creation of Air Union there is clear water between the top 3 groupings and the rest of the remaining pack of Russian carriers. The three players are:
Aeroflot - Russian International (including Aeroflot Nord)
Sibir S7
Air Union.
These 3 are now the leading domestic airlines. The only other carrier of note is the independent airline TransAero who now seems to make most of its money shuttling its ancient 11 747s (200s, 300s and a single -400) between cold weather locations in Moscow and St Petersburg and warm weather locations in Egypt.
The Russian market after falling from a high of 160 Million pax at the height of the Soviet Union to below 4 million pax is now running a respectable 40 million pax a year and very strong growth.
Maturing is setting in. With the strong restrictions on the purchase of Western Airline equipment - it seems likely that these 4 players will dominate the market for some time to come.
Ryanair to Scrapers - DON'T!
Ryanair is getting tough with agents again. Despite conciliatory noises from Easyjet to open the door to the Travel Trade - Ryanair is talking tough (probably with a few expletives thrown in!)
Rather than just hitting the agencies themselves they are targeting selective technology providers. We understand that Comtec and Traveltek were both selected out for action. The latter (who also powers Dolphin Dynamics scraper) represents about 70 UK Travel Agencies. Said that last year 30,000 clients booked through the system.
Ryanair clearly doesn't care. With 50 million total pax flown this is an insignificant number.
Clearly this represents the difference and divergence of the models being pursued by the 2 leading LCCs. We have said many times that the LCC model itself will fracture and that the purists will continue to defend their direct channels to the consumer. The Hybrid Value Carriers - HVCs, and we clearly see that EasyJet fits that profile, are going to start doing certain things like opening up subtle avenues in the travel trade channels.
Michael O'Leary to the Travel Trade - 2 fingers up!
Rather than just hitting the agencies themselves they are targeting selective technology providers. We understand that Comtec and Traveltek were both selected out for action. The latter (who also powers Dolphin Dynamics scraper) represents about 70 UK Travel Agencies. Said that last year 30,000 clients booked through the system.
Ryanair clearly doesn't care. With 50 million total pax flown this is an insignificant number.
Clearly this represents the difference and divergence of the models being pursued by the 2 leading LCCs. We have said many times that the LCC model itself will fracture and that the purists will continue to defend their direct channels to the consumer. The Hybrid Value Carriers - HVCs, and we clearly see that EasyJet fits that profile, are going to start doing certain things like opening up subtle avenues in the travel trade channels.
Michael O'Leary to the Travel Trade - 2 fingers up!
So the 787 is going to be late....
That as your humble writer is not new news. But there are some subtle issues that Boeing has finally come clean about.
The biggest decision is to wait before making a decision on the production start up, ramp speed and full production dates.
The decision for production and setting a date is going to be much later - don't expect this until late Q3 at the earliest. Our betting is that first deliveries wont be until Q2 in 2009. We are projecting about 40-50 deliveries in the first year. Well below the 109 Boeing originally projected.
We are all going to see a much chastened Boeing for a while. They have yet to get things right. The issues now remain:
The supply chain is not yet ready. Already some of the supply chain partners are saying that they will not be able to meet Boeing's targets.
The design is "soft" frozen. Boeing doesn't as yet have a full set of plans to work with. If all the pieces had been delivered as envisaged then this would not have been too much of an issue in delivering Aircraft 1 for flight testing. However now Boeing has had to take back control of certain sections (remember the Italians!) they need the full documentation and guess what... they don't have it all... So the "Traveling Work" is both more complex and time consuming than was allowed for.
Oh yes and Rolls has a problem with Fuel burn. They are still 2%+ off targets.
At least Boeing is (kinda) coming clean on these issues. There are others. There is no clear path out of here. Let's hope Pat Shanahan and his crew are left alone to do their job. His 90 day honeymoon is well and truly over.
My admonishment is the same... take the time.
The biggest decision is to wait before making a decision on the production start up, ramp speed and full production dates.
The decision for production and setting a date is going to be much later - don't expect this until late Q3 at the earliest. Our betting is that first deliveries wont be until Q2 in 2009. We are projecting about 40-50 deliveries in the first year. Well below the 109 Boeing originally projected.
We are all going to see a much chastened Boeing for a while. They have yet to get things right. The issues now remain:
The supply chain is not yet ready. Already some of the supply chain partners are saying that they will not be able to meet Boeing's targets.
The design is "soft" frozen. Boeing doesn't as yet have a full set of plans to work with. If all the pieces had been delivered as envisaged then this would not have been too much of an issue in delivering Aircraft 1 for flight testing. However now Boeing has had to take back control of certain sections (remember the Italians!) they need the full documentation and guess what... they don't have it all... So the "Traveling Work" is both more complex and time consuming than was allowed for.
Oh yes and Rolls has a problem with Fuel burn. They are still 2%+ off targets.
At least Boeing is (kinda) coming clean on these issues. There are others. There is no clear path out of here. Let's hope Pat Shanahan and his crew are left alone to do their job. His 90 day honeymoon is well and truly over.
My admonishment is the same... take the time.
That was extremely lucky!
The BA pilot of BA038 PEK-LHR who managed to get the 777 down this morning at LHR deserves a medal. While we don't have the full details as to what caused the power failure - a rather large aircraft and a crew who had been flying for many hours is not exactly a recipe for success. But these guys did it and more power to them.
Now of course there is chaos at LHR with one runway out of action. Many flights have been cancelled today - over 200 mostly short haul.
www.bbcnews.com has the best pictures.
Cheers
Timothy
Now of course there is chaos at LHR with one runway out of action. Many flights have been cancelled today - over 200 mostly short haul.
www.bbcnews.com has the best pictures.
Cheers
Timothy
The year is starting with a bang... Thoughts on DL-NW + AF/KL
Those of you who are regular readers know that I am personally opposed to the idea of a DL+someone else merger. I just cannot see the logic in the near and probably long term for such a Union.
So for the next 2 weeks (that's DL's time line) actually 3 months is more likely! We are going to be subjected to the constant war of words between the protagonists.
As we noted in our 200 predictions - the market in the USA is ripe for investment from EMEA (that's both Europe and the GCC states). Finally someone else agrees - the WSJ today described the first thing that Richard Anderson did after leaving Friday's Board Meeting where he secured the OK to negotiate with NW and UA. Where did he go? Paris.
AF/KL holds the key card in this conversation. They are the biggest player in the world and their JV with DL and NW separately makes the union a good tie. HOWEVER I stand by my statements earlier. This is not good for the two players. NOR will it be good for the customers and staff.
As for the alternatives - UAL is a basket case and no one should touch it.
But the impact of the DL+NW merger will be far reaching and not necessarily good. Fortunately it seems that Senator Oberstar seems to agree with me. Fortunately he comes from Minnesota so he has a vested interest in not seeing it happen! Oh yes he is a Democrat which almost counts for something these days.
I stand by hope that this will be resolved not by a full merger but by a combined alliance/JV which makes much more sense.
Cheers
So for the next 2 weeks (that's DL's time line) actually 3 months is more likely! We are going to be subjected to the constant war of words between the protagonists.
As we noted in our 200 predictions - the market in the USA is ripe for investment from EMEA (that's both Europe and the GCC states). Finally someone else agrees - the WSJ today described the first thing that Richard Anderson did after leaving Friday's Board Meeting where he secured the OK to negotiate with NW and UA. Where did he go? Paris.
AF/KL holds the key card in this conversation. They are the biggest player in the world and their JV with DL and NW separately makes the union a good tie. HOWEVER I stand by my statements earlier. This is not good for the two players. NOR will it be good for the customers and staff.
As for the alternatives - UAL is a basket case and no one should touch it.
But the impact of the DL+NW merger will be far reaching and not necessarily good. Fortunately it seems that Senator Oberstar seems to agree with me. Fortunately he comes from Minnesota so he has a vested interest in not seeing it happen! Oh yes he is a Democrat which almost counts for something these days.
I stand by hope that this will be resolved not by a full merger but by a combined alliance/JV which makes much more sense.
Cheers
16 January 2008
BA's OpenSkies - Divine Inspiration or Crass and Stupid?
Listen to the Podcast of Addison, Doug and yours truly debating the merits of BA's OpenSkies.
http://iagblog.podomatic.com/entry/2008-01-16T10_48_07-08_00
http://iagblog.podomatic.com/entry/2008-01-16T10_48_07-08_00
15 January 2008
Could Microsoft be heading for a Split of a different kind?
Normally the faithful like to gather around the water coolers and offices on the Campuses around the Puget Sound and ponder a stock split. Actually since that hasn't happened in such a long time - many Microsofties have not even experienced the joy of a Stock Split.
However there is clearly a changing of the guard going on. With Bill leaving some time this year and Jeff Raikes announcing his retirement - we are seeing also a host of senior and middle level long time leaders leaving.
Perhaps it just isn't as much fun anymore.
However I believe there is another reason. With MSFT being so widely held it makes it very hard for there to be any major stock movement. Stock buybacks and other normal behaviour have done little to move the old stock clock needle of late.
I think the company is headed for a SPLIT. With the company being spun into 4 major divisions.
1. OS and Enterprise infrastructure services (aka Windows)
2. Desktop and Web Apps (aka Office)
3. Online Services (aka MSN)
4. Entertainment. (aka Xbox)
Some smaller businesses like MCS - Microsoft Consulting Services would be spun out along the way - but these are the biggies.
Steve - time to o it - it will realize a lot of shareholder equity and create competition for the marketplace.
The 4 businesses would generate significantly more market value that the core businesses do today.
Something to think about - eh Steve?
However there is clearly a changing of the guard going on. With Bill leaving some time this year and Jeff Raikes announcing his retirement - we are seeing also a host of senior and middle level long time leaders leaving.
Perhaps it just isn't as much fun anymore.
However I believe there is another reason. With MSFT being so widely held it makes it very hard for there to be any major stock movement. Stock buybacks and other normal behaviour have done little to move the old stock clock needle of late.
I think the company is headed for a SPLIT. With the company being spun into 4 major divisions.
1. OS and Enterprise infrastructure services (aka Windows)
2. Desktop and Web Apps (aka Office)
3. Online Services (aka MSN)
4. Entertainment. (aka Xbox)
Some smaller businesses like MCS - Microsoft Consulting Services would be spun out along the way - but these are the biggies.
Steve - time to o it - it will realize a lot of shareholder equity and create competition for the marketplace.
The 4 businesses would generate significantly more market value that the core businesses do today.
Something to think about - eh Steve?
Airline Stocks - ever get that sinking feeling?
Airline stocks are going to take a pounding in the USA market for he next half year at least. Probably longer.
Why?
The simple answer is "It's the economy, stupid!"...
The longer answer is there are not enough fundamentals to make airline stocks sexy. All the sectors are under pressure: Network Carriers under-performing, Regionals and Contract Carriers (Like Mesa and Republic), Even the one time darling jetBlue is cutting planed capacity as indeed is Southwest.
So Delta is hoping for a sexy quick win in its proposed merger with either Northwest or United.
I will say it again - JUST SAY NO!
The merger of Delta and Northwest is a union made in hell. DL and UA would be torture for everybody concerned except for Glenn "Gordon Gekko" Tilton.
Corn futures look good...........
Why?
The simple answer is "It's the economy, stupid!"...
The longer answer is there are not enough fundamentals to make airline stocks sexy. All the sectors are under pressure: Network Carriers under-performing, Regionals and Contract Carriers (Like Mesa and Republic), Even the one time darling jetBlue is cutting planed capacity as indeed is Southwest.
So Delta is hoping for a sexy quick win in its proposed merger with either Northwest or United.
I will say it again - JUST SAY NO!
The merger of Delta and Northwest is a union made in hell. DL and UA would be torture for everybody concerned except for Glenn "Gordon Gekko" Tilton.
Corn futures look good...........
Europe Soars as USA Stalls - 1st Quarter Traffic Estimates
We are seeing some extraordinary growth numbers coming from the global growth of air traffic. Frankly we are having a hard time believing these numbers.
Global headline growth is predicted at nearly 10% in quarter 1 with a slackening off in the second quarter. This is all the more astonishing given that the US market is at most optimistic flat or continuing its slide since August 2007. In December the US market fell 0.6%.
We believe there will be a number of contradictory indicators over the next year. Today for example - and unjustified in logic - we saw UK based EasyJet's shares take a tumble. We have already seen a pull back in flights flown for the quarter from the US Network Carriers. Yet at the end of the quarter March 30th will see the largest expansion of Transatlantic flights in one day ever. The opening of LHR to OpenSkies will result in over 16 new Transatlantic flights from current non-resident airlines.
It will be a season to watch - just like American Idol that starts this week
Global headline growth is predicted at nearly 10% in quarter 1 with a slackening off in the second quarter. This is all the more astonishing given that the US market is at most optimistic flat or continuing its slide since August 2007. In December the US market fell 0.6%.
We believe there will be a number of contradictory indicators over the next year. Today for example - and unjustified in logic - we saw UK based EasyJet's shares take a tumble. We have already seen a pull back in flights flown for the quarter from the US Network Carriers. Yet at the end of the quarter March 30th will see the largest expansion of Transatlantic flights in one day ever. The opening of LHR to OpenSkies will result in over 16 new Transatlantic flights from current non-resident airlines.
It will be a season to watch - just like American Idol that starts this week
Boeing vs Airbus - Tanker (PR) Wars
Monday was a great day for people who read and write blogs. Boeing and Airbus were having a bad PR haircut day.
Airbus is trying to win (against the odds) the Tanker contract based on the A330 Airframe. Boeing is trying to keep the contract based on the 767 Airframe they already won once but were disqualified due to some rather nefarious practices which resulted in Jail time for two of their former execs.
So Airbus thought they could raise the stakes by offering some political value in a backdoor offset. The offer is to position an additional A330 civil production line (for Freighters only) at the same plant in Alabama. Currently Airbus has a backlog of 65 of these aircraft.
So back to the war - yesterday was Airbus's big announcement. All the politicos who wanted news ink showed up. Hoping for some good positive stories to put the pressure on the Tanker Selection Committee to choose the European subsidiary of EADS rather than the normal US Contractor choice.
Some little dickie birdie decided yesterday was the perfect day to look at Airbus's first military program - the A400M and see how well they are doing. Or not doing as the case may be. So rather than Airbus scoring a nice PR coup - the focus in the papers this morning was on Airbus's problems not the positives.
The article that appeared in the Wall Street Journal today was less than complementary about EADS's Airbus division. Pointing to Project Management, Politics and Technology complexity as the chief causes of the A400M's woes.
In here is a little nugget that everyone should be paying attention to; a global supply chain for aircraft is by no means a trivial task even for experienced hands such as at Airbus. For Boeing there is a lesson here too. The long software integrated supply chain has incredible complexity and is very hard to get right particularly when politics and expedient choices are made.
Lessons learned. I think we will all so some more rhetoric before the decision is announced. Even then it is likely to get appealed.
Airbus is trying to win (against the odds) the Tanker contract based on the A330 Airframe. Boeing is trying to keep the contract based on the 767 Airframe they already won once but were disqualified due to some rather nefarious practices which resulted in Jail time for two of their former execs.
So Airbus thought they could raise the stakes by offering some political value in a backdoor offset. The offer is to position an additional A330 civil production line (for Freighters only) at the same plant in Alabama. Currently Airbus has a backlog of 65 of these aircraft.
So back to the war - yesterday was Airbus's big announcement. All the politicos who wanted news ink showed up. Hoping for some good positive stories to put the pressure on the Tanker Selection Committee to choose the European subsidiary of EADS rather than the normal US Contractor choice.
Some little dickie birdie decided yesterday was the perfect day to look at Airbus's first military program - the A400M and see how well they are doing. Or not doing as the case may be. So rather than Airbus scoring a nice PR coup - the focus in the papers this morning was on Airbus's problems not the positives.
The article that appeared in the Wall Street Journal today was less than complementary about EADS's Airbus division. Pointing to Project Management, Politics and Technology complexity as the chief causes of the A400M's woes.
In here is a little nugget that everyone should be paying attention to; a global supply chain for aircraft is by no means a trivial task even for experienced hands such as at Airbus. For Boeing there is a lesson here too. The long software integrated supply chain has incredible complexity and is very hard to get right particularly when politics and expedient choices are made.
Lessons learned. I think we will all so some more rhetoric before the decision is announced. Even then it is likely to get appealed.
News Trickling out - 787 delays are more serious
The Wall Street Journal will publish an article tomorrow on the 787 delays. They are saying what we have been hearing for some time that the Q1 first flight is not going to happen with even an end of June a tough date.
Perhaps more telling is the longer term implications. IE what we have been saying for some time that the production schedule is still way too ambitious.
We believe a more prudent approach would be a slower ramp rate is advisable which would push full initial production to 2010. Boeing's stock wont like this but the plane will do better for it.
For early ship-sets this could have some serious implications.
Perhaps more telling is the longer term implications. IE what we have been saying for some time that the production schedule is still way too ambitious.
We believe a more prudent approach would be a slower ramp rate is advisable which would push full initial production to 2010. Boeing's stock wont like this but the plane will do better for it.
For early ship-sets this could have some serious implications.
12 January 2008
Read Sheik Rashid al Maktoum's Commentary in the Wall Street Journal
As a keen scholar of the Middle East and the GCC states in particular - Today's WSJ offers an insight into the thinking of one of the world's most dynamic economies.
I encourage everyone to read it - you will hopefully find it illuminating.
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB120010558127985667.html
I encourage everyone to read it - you will hopefully find it illuminating.
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB120010558127985667.html
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