11 March 2008

SAS vs Bombardier Kiss and Make up… and MORE Q400s

So SK and Bombardier have resolved their nasty spat over collapsing undercarts on its fleet of Bambardier DHC8-400Qs by giving a big credit and SK taking on a bunch of CRJs and (Drum Roll) please brand new Q400s. It doesn’t seem logical but well this seems to be the OK answer to the nasty fight.

Here’s a novel thought – privatize US airports.

For more years than many of us can remember the US Government has had a secret tax on airlines. The tax 8-10% on airline tickets was designed to cover the cost of airport and airways improvements including terminals and runways. Actually it was used to provide billions of dollars in funds that went directly to the federal coffers and never to the intended purpose. When the money didn’t get to the airports – local authorities within the States and cities who own and run the airports started to institute PFCs – Passenger Facility Charges. These charges now comprise a revenue form for the airports. But not necessarily for the use they were intended. The situation of poor management by the FAA and the lack of funding has resulted in capacity constraints in the US Air Transportation System at the airport level. This is now the bottleneck and not a solution in sight.

So now I would like to suggest an alternative solution to the problem in total. Rather than yet another half hearted attempt at a solution – I think we should try and address the problem once and for all.

So my proposal is straightforward and I hope simple. Privatize the airports.

This has occurred in many different parts of the world but the US model seems to not have adopted this novel idea. However the concept is not so easy given the different ways in which funding attempts are handled. There needs to be both an obligation and a method to ensure that funding occurs on a regular and consistent basis. To this end the privatization needs to also cover a long term set of goals – meeting the needs of growth and safety. The only way this is going to happen is if there is a secure funding method that kick starts the whole process. So the recommendation is to add Government backed bonds rather than funding from the Government. But from the moment that is offered then the revenue to the Feds ceases and the funds can then flow correctly.

This will require the US Congress to be able to make some smart decisions. Lets hope that this can happen soon. Then finally we can get new infrastructure – gridlock will be relieved… sometime this century. We can but hope

Cheers

Timothy

The fight with BALPA turns ugly. BA Needs a new game plan.

Despite best efforts by both sides, the fight of BA’s new subsidiary OpenSkies has now turned ugly. BALPA has been looking for a fight. BA has been looking for ways to break the union’s stranglehold. To me the battle is being waged at a time that BA doesn’t need a fight. The airline is already slowing down and is highly susceptible to a number of factors that will cause its financial performance to degrade. Already the stock is down 50% and it is going to go down even further in my opinion. This should not be the case.

The missteps of the Walsh era are now coming back to haunt the management. Sir Rod left the airline in a good shape. But Walsh has done little other than to run the airline on autopilot. His tenure has been marked by several missteps including labor unrest, baggage snafus, Air France’s encroachment into LCY and the loss of 2 major franchise carriers, BMED and GB Airways. Now BA’s response to EU-US open skies is “OpenSkies” and the LCY-JFK one-stop lame flights. As a long time paying passenger with Gold Card Status – I believe that BA is just being less than smart and needs a new game plan.

Farewell Western Airlines

One of the last vestiges of a great little airline has finally gone. Delta has apparently retired the last of its 737-300s which included a batch it inherited from Western Airlines back in the 1980s.

Western Airlines was a great airline that didn’t quite manage to become a great big airline. In the merger mania of the 1980s it was swallowed up into Delta that saw DL gain a foothold into the western USA.

A few years ago when SeaTac was renovating I saw the big flying W that used to grace the ticket counters exposed for a few hours while they ripped out the counter area walls. I doubt that there are many people who remember WA. I had the priviledge of serving via the Ad Agency at McCann Ericsson for a few years.

So farewell for the last time.

Cheers

Timothy

10 March 2008

Will be on the road again this week - so few posts

Anyway - I think I have given you enough... to go on for a few days.

There is a lot going on right now. So stay tuned.

Cheers

Timothy

Road Warriors of the world unite… Roaming is getting “Free”er.

This is from jiwire (www.jiwire.com) an excellent resource for road warrior types. (Your blogger included). AT&T has captured Starbucks. But with a twist as this entry tells it, the game is now possible to provide for free. This is good news. Lets hope it works out. Even as a non-coffee (although I live mostly in Seattle) drinker, this is a good.

AT&T Takes Starbucks & Boingo Does McDonald's
Finding a "free" Wi-Fi hotspot in the US just got a whole lot easier, now that AT&T is taking over the Starbucks contract formerly held by T-Mobile. The reason is simple: the 12 million AT&T DSL and U-verse customers with at least 1.5Mbps service will now get free access at all 17,000 U.S. AT&T Wi-Fi locations, including the 7,000 Starbucks stores. In addition, any customer with a Starbucks stored-value card used at least once a month gets a free two hours per day -- money they're likely to be spending anyway. Starbucks is the crown jewel of U.S. Wi-Fi properties, and making access available to so many customers for free is a huge deal. We expect many Wi-Fi mavens to flee Comcast for AT&T broadband as a result. The handover has already started, and will be completed market-by-market by the end of the year. But T-Mobile Hotspot subscribers will not be left out in the cold -- they can continue to roam at Starbucks for at least the next five years.
Meanwhile, Boingo, the biggest Wi-Fi roaming network with 100,000 locations worldwide, has not been standing idly by. It just announced an agreement with Wayport to bring more than 9,000 North American McDonald's locations under the Boingo umbrella. And since Boingo already had a contract with AT&T, it gained all those Starbucks locations too. Now both Boingo and iPass offer access to the combined Starbucks-McDonald's juggernaut, to go with their excellent overseas and travel-oriented hotspot networks. In one heady week, the U.S. Wi-Fi scene has gone from frustratingly fragmented to near-free and friendly.
Cheers

Timothy

Passenger numbers for February - back on the up?

Tracking numbers fro Air4casts and other sources we are seeing a return into positive territory after a slow down at the end of last year and a bad January. But I will caution before looking at this too hard - remember that February this year has an extra day's worth of revenue. With this fact and also Easter being early - we may still see some more positive signs.

BA is still looking a little sickly loosing the BMED and GB Airways for the first full period of time. In the USA market United still looks a little pale. Southwest and other players are looking a lot healthier.

In 2007 we saw also that the hotel market managed to have positive numbers in Yield, occupancy rates and ADRs. But the softness is showing in certain areas. Specifically we see small business groups, leisure (non-VFR) slowing. The continuing fall of the dollar is benefiting perversely the top ed of the market as Europeans flex their financial muscles.

Suffice to say - we think the market is "volatile"

Cheers

Timothy

09 March 2008

FAA fines Southwest $10.2 Million for Safety Violations

I am a huge fan of the low cost model it is what is saving the airline business model in general. Airlines became too complicated. On a recent trip to Europe I flew on 3 legacy carriers (Delta, BA and Lufthansa) – 2 LCCs (Easyjet and Ryanair) and one regional airline (VLM now part of Air France). The LCCs have done a great job of changing how things are done but relentlessly asking the question WHY DO I NEED THIS?

However clearly Southwest made that not just a question of the above the wing activity but also in some maintenance by failing to inspect some 46 aircraft when they were due. That is a no-no. Full stop period or what ever you want to say. This is bad for everyone. There is never any issue about below the wing safety. Shame on WN for this. Irrespective of if you do not like the FAA process or procedures - that is NO EXCUSE for this failure. Since this occurred from March 2007 when WN themselves reported the issue to the FAA - then also shame too on the FAA for not forcing the issue earlier and actually enforcing the rules by grounding some or all of the affected aircraft, 6 of which were ultimately found to have real cracks.

This is bad for everyone. I actually hope that the FAA is able to levy the fine in final judgement and then use the money to hire more inspectors. It is a dark secret that there are not enough of them.

Cheers

Timothy

Wide ranging reports - 787 Delayed again - implications

Sadly as we have reported frequently here, the 787 is running late again. The project is still not hitting its milestones. While Boeing was quietly crowing last year when the full extent of the A380 delays became apparent and insisting that there aggressive time line was solid, it now becomes clear that this was off base.

So I will reiterate our position on the situation with the 787. It will take years to bring the project to full production run rate. Our estimate is that this will not occur until well into 2010 possibly even later. The issues yet to be resolved are numerous and complex. Even after they are solved turning the solutions into a viable production line with smooth processes is far from being assured. Boeing is very fortunate in that after the design issues are resolved they have a cadre of execs who have solid moving production line experience who came from Toyota and Ford etc. But the hump to get over is/will continue to be a big/long one. We will continue to monitor the situation and hope to report some estimates on impact later.

Lest it seem that we are beating up on Boeing alone, let me just say that these are issues that will face Airbus in much the same way with the A350. Unlike Boeing with a single current project to worry about - Airbus has 4. The A380, The A330 Tanker/Military, The A350XWB and do not forget the A400M which is a pretty sick project at the moment.

I say again...

Take the time and its actually OK to add fudge factor to the overall project. Take a deep breath and really think hard. For Boeing - you have one more chance for a schedule correction. Get it right this time. For Airbus - learn and don't get too aggressive with the schedules. For the suppliers - you have two years of missed schedules and delivery lines. Spirit in KS will be particularly vulnerable having a strong dependence on Boeing.

Is Singapore picking off Europeans one country at a time?

Portugal last week joined the UK in a simple Open Skies bilateral treat treaty with the Republic of Singapore.



What is interesting about this is not that it happened but the fact that the EU has been trumpeting its common aviation policy stance particularly with the USA, yet individual countries still make deals like this.

The EU should be much more consistent on these matters.

The USAF Tanker deal - some thoughts

Quite frankly I was shocked to learn that the US Air Force had decided to select the Northrup Grumman/EADS team over Boeing. The decision had a seam of inevitability in it that was a train going to Abilene.

However in today's global economy where the words "National" and "Interests" are not always synomomous, this is a positive trend. But the decision criteria was not based on anything but the previously stated (and in my understanding) and fair set of rules. According to the statements from the USAF committee, Airbus won on all criteria accounts. The fall out in both Washingtons is going to reverberate for a long time.

Boeing would do well to accept the decision. If the criteria was flawed or if the result were not so clear cut then a protest should be conducted. However given the background and the time taken to make the decision, one can only believe that the review was conducted in the most strict of circumstances.

One of the arguments I have seen against the award has been the notion that high tech jobs are being outsourced to foreigners. Frankly I believe the opposite is the case. An industrial base of additional understanding especially in composites will be a direct result of this award.

Perhaps now that the decision has been made then we can only hope that there are some lessons to be learned here. One of the biggest lessons that should be learned is that the US Defense Acquisition process is flawed and needs rework.

One final thought is that there is a bad knock on effect within the airline industry. The 767 production line has been hanging on with some cargo based sales but very little new sales as customers wait for the 787. There is already a very big shortage of 767-300 size aircraft and the probably 18 month to 2 year total delay in the 787 program means a strong shortage of this size equipment. This is not good and will need monitoring in the coming months.

08 March 2008

The Skyrocketing Cost of Slot Pairs at LHR $52 million each!

CO was revealed to be the purchaser of a recent set of slots at LHR.

A Continental Airlines filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission has revealed it paid $209m for four pairs of take-off and landing slots at Heathrow Airport.

The most recent price at LHR was pegged at $40 million last year. So clearly a nice fat increase even allowing for the fall of the dollar against the pound. And who did they pay that money to? We believe it was the parent company of GB Airways (then a BA Franchisee). After selling the airline to Easyjet – they retained 4 slot pairs at LHR. This is where they went. A nice tidy profit.

Pity poor BAA and its Spanish owners. I bet they were wishing they had been able to pocket that cash and use some of it to either pay down their debt or improve some services at LHR.

The electric chair… Literally on BA

One of my fellow bloggers is Tim Hughes who writes THE BOOT

Tim has been on a truly acerbic tear on what he thinks is a personal plot against him by Qantas. Well I am beginning to think the same from BA. As regular readers know – I am pretty vociferous about the way BA is being run and its various misfortunes. Well I am beginning to think its personal.

Disclosure – I am a Gold Card holder (sorry Delta this is where my extra flights went) So I really like the upstairs on a 744. This was a new version of the seats. (Much better by the way from the older ones). But as I sat there – as soon as I touched bear metal I kept getting shocked. So since BA knows I am a Gold holder (for the first time they are actually making an effort to ID me)I think it could be personal. Oh but wait it was ME who chose the seat. So it MUST be all seats…. Sure enough more than one seat has the problem. Not sure if this is due to this particular aircraft or others – but I seem to recall that I had felt it before and just ignored it.

Anyone else felt that electrifying feeling on BA?

Expedia's formula rolls into India

After nearly 2 years of dancing with different potential partners including the big 4 Indian Portals – (Makemytrip, Yatra, Cleartrip and TravelGuru) Expedia is now rolling out its own site developed in house.

Starting with Hotels, as it has done in all but the first few makets, and a bit of content might not seem to be a big deal in India where there are very few hotels to even book. However Expedia has one advantage over everyone else – it is already the largest booker of Hotels in India thanks to its worldwide clout.

Domestically Expedia will probably do OK as it connects to the local LCC airlines such as Kingfisher. And this is where it will start to get interesting. The LCCs fall in and out of love for the portals on a regular basis. So it is not uncommon for a carrier not to be present in the portal. This is both by design and by accident or problem.

No one is making much money out of the local LCCs. The yields are too low. Expedia has the advantage of better international reach so should have a better shot at the making money on the international flights as does Makemytrip. Much like the airlines themselves there will have to be a shakeout sooner or later. For now – welcome to the zoo that is India Expedia. Good luck. Good luck also figuring out the taxes on hotels….

Sorry was at ITB... back now will post more soon

Watch for blizzard of good stories

Cheers

Timothy

29 February 2008

The Professor will be away for a week.

I will try and write but I am going to enjoy the rigors of ... Berlin and the world's largest travel trade show - ITB.

So if you are there and want to contact me (ply me full of alcohol etc) then please email me timothyo@t2impact.com

Cheers and have a good week

Timothy

28 February 2008

Allegis again?

OK Hands up those who remember the name Allegis?

Well it seems that a small part of it must live on in people's memories. United and Westin are cooperating on the PS service (premium 757 transcon). Nice pillows and blankies an an Oasis of Calm in the red carpet clubs.

It was a cool idea... too bad it didn't work.

Cheers

Timothy

27 February 2008

Gunfight in the West

The West Coast Market Heats Up.

It has been a bit sleepy on the West Coast of late. Sure we have seen a lot of service that went to hubs but not a lot that went North to South. But that is about to change.

Despite an interesting but short lived incursion from Skybus, there has been very little brand new service.

The new services started in 3rd quarter 2007 with a little heralded but very useful new service from Delta’s new partner ExpressJet. Flying Embraer 145s this is not going to set the world alight. Virgin America’s new service though between the major Southern California cities – particularly into San Francisco did spark a reaction. Southwest and Jetblue moved across the Bay and added service from SFO in addition to their OAK service. But this year the Northwest’s airline (Alaska Air based in Seattle) wanted to ensure that no one stepped into their market and offered a very strong schedule of hourly service from LA to Seattle. Beefing up also San Franscico and more flights from PDX sees AS becoming the largest individual airline between the Pacific Northwest and California.

Not to be outdone Virgin announced new service from LAX and SFO to SEA. Then JetBlue started to connect the dots similarly announcing service between LAX and SEA as well as from LGB.

So for one who lives in the Seattle metro area – thanks guys. I appreciate you picking on this market to have a battle. With new service to Germany (LH, FRA-SEA), UK (NW LHR-SEA) and already beefed up service from BA and last year’s addition of flights from CDG to SEA, the place is a hopping. We are looking forward to Air China coming this year.

Cheers

TImothy

Congratulations to Heifer International

I am a huge fan of sustainability in development. And despite being in the Travel and Tourism business – I am a big fan of programs that enable people to help themselves. For the past several years we have supported Heifer International as a part of both the T2 and my personal annual charity activity. I have encouraged clients and other members of the T2 team to do the same. Now comes news that they have been recognized with a grant from the Gates Foundation. Here is the official blurb:

On January 25, Heifer announced a four-year $42.8 million grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to fund a project to help poor rural farmers in East Africa double their incomes by increasing their production of high quality raw milk to sell to dairies. This is the largest single grant in Heifer's history

I urge you to sign up with Heifer. It is probably one of the most effective forms of giving out there.


Cheers and thanks

Timothy

Don’t say its over already? DL+NW merger rumours.

I hear Dusty Springfield in the background singing – you don’t have to say forever just be close at hand….

It looks like things are not going well with the merger discussions at DL and NW. First it was the pilots arguing over the seniority lists. Now it is rumoured (totally unsubstantiated so far) that AF-KL may not be too happy with the current arrangement. However anyway you cut it – things are not rosy with the merger. Both parties on Tuesday put out notes saying “we want to but..”

We remain clearly unimpressed with the merger concept in general at this stage without a clear policy of opening up competition from external sources. Mergers cause less competition and higher prices in the airline market. Therefore by definition failing to meet one of the key criteria established publically by Delta. So any illusions of efficiency are not going to positively impact the consumer. If the US Administration (either current or next) wants to approve it – then they should do so ONLY if there are safeguards to open competition. The easiest way to ensure that is by removing the foreign restrictions and allowed 7th, 8th and 9th freedom traffic. Over at IAG they have been discussing this. Here is the podcast:



Cheers

Timothy