We take safety for granted.
We are complacent.
We are in danger.
There are so many studies on the subject of safety that you can drown in the amount of information. It is clear that the travelling public has been essentially "lucky" in that the number of accidents is not higher than it is. Hopefully this luck is not an accident of chance but a result of systematic focus on safety.
One of the most dramatic improvements in cockpit management has been the Electronic Flight Bag - EFB. However the recent incident involving an Emirates A340 at MEL highlights that there is still a problem with the overall safety of the system - namely the human factors side.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/05/29/327075/emirates-incident-highlights-electronic-flight-bag-human.html
There is no answer to the question of how to manage safety - it is essentially unmanageable. We just have to hope and pray that the combination of factors that can cause an accident either never happen or that we can create mitigation for them.
Reading the reports of the AF447 accident, it would seem to the layman (and that includes me) that there are circumstances when things go wrong and nothing can be done to fix them if there is a major external distracting event going on. The lessons of Eastern Flight 401 have been researched and analyzed yet the core combination of factors continue to cause either accidents or almost accidents.
The recent revelations of the CO commuter Q400 accident reveals some things that should never have happened. Yet they still do. Crews commuting from more than 2000 miles away and sleeping on couches in a ready-room. Etc Etc.
We all as public and as professionals must be vigilant. We have to ensure that safety is not someone else's job. Its all our job. There is an excellent article in ATW June 2009 entitled back to basics. It makes a sobering read. We cannot just look for politically expedient solutions. We have to bring a culture of endemic focus on safety that embraces us all. We are all part of the solution. We can be thankful to the boys and girls in the front who guide the tubes to their destinations. But they are just part of a machine. That machine needs to work at 100%, all of the time.
Cheers
13 June 2009
12 June 2009
Once Was Not Enough - Airlines Cut More
Twice was not enough
Will the third round of cuts be enough to bring capacity inline with demand?
Just in time for the Paris Air Show next week we see another dose of (new and really real this time) reality hitting the market. Pursuing the conventional pendulum (aka knee jerk response) to a down turn - we are watching another round of cuts take place in the market. Delta and American shaved another 1-3 points off their capacity in total for the post Labor day schedule. BA is warning of cuts across the board from labour to shuttering OpenSkies. In this month's Air Transport World, Editor Aaron Karp ("Were They Tough Enough? " - http://www.atwonline.com/magazine/currentTOC.html ) makes the case that the bloodletting at the end of 2008 and the first quarter of this year was just not sufficient for the airlines to sustain their business model. The empirical data in support is stark. Yields are in the toilet. US travel agency derived airline passenger revenues were off almost 30% in the month of May 2009 on only a less than 9% drop in passengers. That is pretty bad by any measure.
Those of you who are regulars of this blog will recall that I singled out United last year for not cutting their head count costs commensurate to match the reduction in their fleet.
Now we see the new Boeing CMO 2009-2028 being released and for the first time ever (as far as I can tell) the plane maker is actually cutting its long term forecast. So the pull back is not just temporary. We are seeing a structural change in the market.
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html
As an aside here it is a great tool and this years version is much easier to use and gives better quality data.
With oil prices rebounding and headed north of $100/ppb, the spectre of the gas guzzling uneconomic fleet is rising again. with effective deflation, rising costs and still declining demand - the airlines are in this perfect storm of bad news. As Willie has exhorted his boys and the rank and file - standard solutions and behavior are not acceptable. However I wonder if the rhetoric matches the execution. And of course while BA is a poster child for this perfect storm of bad news but they are by no means the worst and the sole victim of this situation. At least BA has the ability to control much of its own destiny (Unions willing we think!).
So chaps - brace yourselves for the long haul. There will be more cuts and more belt tightening.
However - while this would be a good time to think about how to radically change the airline cost model not just applying the scalpel, I am just not seeing any evidence of this occurring. Chaps - wake up and smell the coffee. You are being presented with a golden opportunity to make your businesses stronger for the long haul.
Not taking this chance means that the airlines are going to be condemned to having to cut again, and again... Then the opportunity missed will be looked on as a luxury! I hope that in future time I wont have to write about the time when the airlines missed their golden moment.
Cheers
Will the third round of cuts be enough to bring capacity inline with demand?
Just in time for the Paris Air Show next week we see another dose of (new and really real this time) reality hitting the market. Pursuing the conventional pendulum (aka knee jerk response) to a down turn - we are watching another round of cuts take place in the market. Delta and American shaved another 1-3 points off their capacity in total for the post Labor day schedule. BA is warning of cuts across the board from labour to shuttering OpenSkies. In this month's Air Transport World, Editor Aaron Karp ("Were They Tough Enough? " - http://www.atwonline.com/magazine/currentTOC.html ) makes the case that the bloodletting at the end of 2008 and the first quarter of this year was just not sufficient for the airlines to sustain their business model. The empirical data in support is stark. Yields are in the toilet. US travel agency derived airline passenger revenues were off almost 30% in the month of May 2009 on only a less than 9% drop in passengers. That is pretty bad by any measure.
Those of you who are regulars of this blog will recall that I singled out United last year for not cutting their head count costs commensurate to match the reduction in their fleet.
Now we see the new Boeing CMO 2009-2028 being released and for the first time ever (as far as I can tell) the plane maker is actually cutting its long term forecast. So the pull back is not just temporary. We are seeing a structural change in the market.
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/index.html
As an aside here it is a great tool and this years version is much easier to use and gives better quality data.
With oil prices rebounding and headed north of $100/ppb, the spectre of the gas guzzling uneconomic fleet is rising again. with effective deflation, rising costs and still declining demand - the airlines are in this perfect storm of bad news. As Willie has exhorted his boys and the rank and file - standard solutions and behavior are not acceptable. However I wonder if the rhetoric matches the execution. And of course while BA is a poster child for this perfect storm of bad news but they are by no means the worst and the sole victim of this situation. At least BA has the ability to control much of its own destiny (Unions willing we think!).
So chaps - brace yourselves for the long haul. There will be more cuts and more belt tightening.
However - while this would be a good time to think about how to radically change the airline cost model not just applying the scalpel, I am just not seeing any evidence of this occurring. Chaps - wake up and smell the coffee. You are being presented with a golden opportunity to make your businesses stronger for the long haul.
Not taking this chance means that the airlines are going to be condemned to having to cut again, and again... Then the opportunity missed will be looked on as a luxury! I hope that in future time I wont have to write about the time when the airlines missed their golden moment.
Cheers
11 June 2009
1 Swallow? Try 5 - Assessment of ARC 2009 Year to Date
So we now have 5 full months under our belt and the variances shown from the extra day in 2008 and the differences in Easter now all mitigated, what can we see from the ARC data.
Well we see that the transaction numbers have been slowly improving. But where the big hole exists - its in yield. This bodes badly for the rest of the year for the airlines.
Transactions improved to only being down 8.4% BUT the sales totals are off just under 30%. That means that the airlines must be heavily discounting to maintain revenues. With commissions creeping back into the Airlines and agencies lexicon - something has to be done to improve yield. The airlines don't have the bounce of a strong book of revenue to fall back on either. this puts the airlines into that nastiest of all quandaries. Whether to discount further to capture just about any cash that's out there or to start investing in smart distribution arrangements to boost traffic and reduce COGS.
The drop in sales tracks directly with the drop in commercial traffic. We estimate across the board as a generalization that the market is off 15%. Stories coming from BA, LH and premier GCC and Asian carriers indicate that premium traffic is just off by 30%. No amount of 2 for 1's are going to improve this yield. Further the corporate wallets are going to stay shut for at least through the summer months. Even the last 2 quarters of 2009 are not going to look that much better as the Corporate traveler adjusts to the lack of approved spending.
Chaps we are not anywhere near the bottom yet.
Cheers
Well we see that the transaction numbers have been slowly improving. But where the big hole exists - its in yield. This bodes badly for the rest of the year for the airlines.
Transactions improved to only being down 8.4% BUT the sales totals are off just under 30%. That means that the airlines must be heavily discounting to maintain revenues. With commissions creeping back into the Airlines and agencies lexicon - something has to be done to improve yield. The airlines don't have the bounce of a strong book of revenue to fall back on either. this puts the airlines into that nastiest of all quandaries. Whether to discount further to capture just about any cash that's out there or to start investing in smart distribution arrangements to boost traffic and reduce COGS.
The drop in sales tracks directly with the drop in commercial traffic. We estimate across the board as a generalization that the market is off 15%. Stories coming from BA, LH and premier GCC and Asian carriers indicate that premium traffic is just off by 30%. No amount of 2 for 1's are going to improve this yield. Further the corporate wallets are going to stay shut for at least through the summer months. Even the last 2 quarters of 2009 are not going to look that much better as the Corporate traveler adjusts to the lack of approved spending.
Chaps we are not anywhere near the bottom yet.
Cheers
Longevity, The Gene Pool and ...Travel?
Mortality - we all to some extent (other than the odd monk or two) fear it.
At my mother's passing a few weeks ago, it fell to me to write the Eulogy and I had to assess what defined her life. She was born in India, moved to Canada, then back to England all before the age of 18. During her marriage to my father - they traveled the world extensively and were a part of what constituted then, the jet set. Of course her real passion was always her dogs!
Travel and the cultures they encountered defined the life of my family. My father also was born in a then exotic locale - Shanghai. As I go through the process of closing down the family home - I was struck by how much of what is in the house and was part of my family's life, symbolized that essence of travel - the small mementos and the (in some cases quite large) artifacts they acquired along the way.
Returning to my own home - it struck me that I too have followed that same path. However what was a past time for both parents has turned into a passion for me both professionally and personally.
Travel is far less glamorous today than it was in my parents' time. I recall personal encounters in airports as a child which seemed all quite normal yet today would be regarded as extraordinary. Still the lure of travel affects us all.
However the risk of travel was brought home to us last week with the loss of AF447. My father missed a flight on the original Comet only to be waiting at the airport the next day when news came of the total loss due to a design fault.
My mother lived to a right old age of 98. The week before she died we discussed her coming to visit all her family in the USA this summer. She really loved to travel and frequently - by that I mean every few months - she did so, short and long haul. The family eventually decided to entitle the Eulogy and the service as "A Life Well Lived". I only hope that when it comes time for me to board the great jetliner in the sky, that others will say that Travel defined my life as much as it did hers.
Keep traveling and spread the passion. Travel does indeed make us better people and the world a better place. The longer we live the greater the opportunity to learn and contribute to a better place on this planet. Hopefully that really does get into the gene pool.
Cheers
PS The Professor would like to again thank everyone who sent in emails and wrote cards, Facebook entries and even texts. We encourage everyone who would like to commemorate her life to contribute to her favorite charity which was Guide Dogs for the Blind. There are many such organizations around the world for example:
US: http://www.guidedogs.com/site/PageServer
UK: http://www.guidedogs.org.uk/
I thank you.
At my mother's passing a few weeks ago, it fell to me to write the Eulogy and I had to assess what defined her life. She was born in India, moved to Canada, then back to England all before the age of 18. During her marriage to my father - they traveled the world extensively and were a part of what constituted then, the jet set. Of course her real passion was always her dogs!
Travel and the cultures they encountered defined the life of my family. My father also was born in a then exotic locale - Shanghai. As I go through the process of closing down the family home - I was struck by how much of what is in the house and was part of my family's life, symbolized that essence of travel - the small mementos and the (in some cases quite large) artifacts they acquired along the way.
Returning to my own home - it struck me that I too have followed that same path. However what was a past time for both parents has turned into a passion for me both professionally and personally.
Travel is far less glamorous today than it was in my parents' time. I recall personal encounters in airports as a child which seemed all quite normal yet today would be regarded as extraordinary. Still the lure of travel affects us all.
However the risk of travel was brought home to us last week with the loss of AF447. My father missed a flight on the original Comet only to be waiting at the airport the next day when news came of the total loss due to a design fault.
My mother lived to a right old age of 98. The week before she died we discussed her coming to visit all her family in the USA this summer. She really loved to travel and frequently - by that I mean every few months - she did so, short and long haul. The family eventually decided to entitle the Eulogy and the service as "A Life Well Lived". I only hope that when it comes time for me to board the great jetliner in the sky, that others will say that Travel defined my life as much as it did hers.
Keep traveling and spread the passion. Travel does indeed make us better people and the world a better place. The longer we live the greater the opportunity to learn and contribute to a better place on this planet. Hopefully that really does get into the gene pool.
Cheers
PS The Professor would like to again thank everyone who sent in emails and wrote cards, Facebook entries and even texts. We encourage everyone who would like to commemorate her life to contribute to her favorite charity which was Guide Dogs for the Blind. There are many such organizations around the world for example:
US: http://www.guidedogs.com/site/PageServer
UK: http://www.guidedogs.org.uk/
I thank you.
Social Media And The Act of Hooking Up: No Intimacy And No Loyalty
As I live in America - I am somewhat starved of conventional media's thinking opinions. The BBC and the commercial channels in the UK seem to have a better way of looking into issues - not too superficial and not too self serving. My favorite non-musical radio station where I live is my local NPR outlet KUOW.
On driving to an appointment on Monday I heard a very interesting piece on Sex without Intimacy (a link to the broadcast is below) - this got me thinking of the impact of Social Media on the current generation. If they just want sex without intimacy then surely they have no need for conventional loyalty. And so it seems that as we have changed our channels of communication - the ensuing attachments to (previously) conventional mores seem to have been lost. Perhaps because I am a little older - I value things like loyalty, honour and duty. Today loyalty from Millenials and even Gen X and Gen Y'ers is primarily to one's friends and not to the greater good. Definitely they don't feel the same attachment to brands. If they are the attachment is governed more on the basis of convenience rather than values.
So this got me thinking about brands and loyalty in travel in the age of social media. Bear with me on this one - I think its one of those observations that I hope you will think about.
Therefore it is important for us to consider when pitching to these groups to understand their motivation. While this is probably not a light bulb idea for most people who read this blog - it has taken me quite some time to appreciate it and the depth of the sentiment. It must be that nostalgic streak in me.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105008712
Listening to the young ladies that were interviewed for the program it somewhat unnerved me to think that they had come to separate the essence of their relationships by splitting the concept of Love Making, Friendship and Intimacy. So too one can infer that these same people have the ability to separate their sentiments and desires when it comes to making purchases - especially for life-style products such as Travel. Please note I am not criticizing this behavior, merely trying to understand the impact of the core thinking by this class of people who are clearly very important to our market.
I put this down to the ability of the young to multi-task like never before and to compartmentalize their emotions and decision making skills. Both left and right sides of the brain. Would that I had that natural skill or that my own brain was rewired in this way. (Banishment of guilt!!!!)
The challenge of brand building in this environment must be enormous. It is probably more relevant today than at any time in the past when one appreciates how difficult it is to build a long lasting brand in this "noisy" environment and just how quickly it can evaporate.
Think about it... ponder the question. Can loyalty actually exist in today's Social Media?
Comments please at your convenience. And don't worry - I wont shout at you nor attempt a virtual Hook Up!
Cheers
On driving to an appointment on Monday I heard a very interesting piece on Sex without Intimacy (a link to the broadcast is below) - this got me thinking of the impact of Social Media on the current generation. If they just want sex without intimacy then surely they have no need for conventional loyalty. And so it seems that as we have changed our channels of communication - the ensuing attachments to (previously) conventional mores seem to have been lost. Perhaps because I am a little older - I value things like loyalty, honour and duty. Today loyalty from Millenials and even Gen X and Gen Y'ers is primarily to one's friends and not to the greater good. Definitely they don't feel the same attachment to brands. If they are the attachment is governed more on the basis of convenience rather than values.
So this got me thinking about brands and loyalty in travel in the age of social media. Bear with me on this one - I think its one of those observations that I hope you will think about.
Therefore it is important for us to consider when pitching to these groups to understand their motivation. While this is probably not a light bulb idea for most people who read this blog - it has taken me quite some time to appreciate it and the depth of the sentiment. It must be that nostalgic streak in me.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105008712
Listening to the young ladies that were interviewed for the program it somewhat unnerved me to think that they had come to separate the essence of their relationships by splitting the concept of Love Making, Friendship and Intimacy. So too one can infer that these same people have the ability to separate their sentiments and desires when it comes to making purchases - especially for life-style products such as Travel. Please note I am not criticizing this behavior, merely trying to understand the impact of the core thinking by this class of people who are clearly very important to our market.
I put this down to the ability of the young to multi-task like never before and to compartmentalize their emotions and decision making skills. Both left and right sides of the brain. Would that I had that natural skill or that my own brain was rewired in this way. (Banishment of guilt!!!!)
The challenge of brand building in this environment must be enormous. It is probably more relevant today than at any time in the past when one appreciates how difficult it is to build a long lasting brand in this "noisy" environment and just how quickly it can evaporate.
Think about it... ponder the question. Can loyalty actually exist in today's Social Media?
Comments please at your convenience. And don't worry - I wont shout at you nor attempt a virtual Hook Up!
Cheers
10 June 2009
BA AA IB - last chance? Maybe, Maybe Not...
The guns are drawn the submissions are in and the old protagonists are lined up ready for the great shoot out at the Heathrow Coral.
Could this be the last chance for the BAAABI alliance to get its long sought anti-trust alliance approval?
In my humble opinion - there is no certainty one way or the other.
So lets do a quick review.
BA+IB. This has gone nowhere lately due to the GFC and the impact on the premium business market especially LHR-NYC. IB is feeling the pain but perhaps to a lesser extent that BA how is publicly wearing its hair shirt with Willie Walsh being surprisingly open about the extent of the impact on the former UK Flag Carrier. With the pound's fall against the Euro the value proposition would be hard to make in pure financial terms. Therefore I believe that this part of the deal is dead for now.
The Star and DL/AF alliances have powered ahead and built a considerable legal and commercial framework for Transatlantic service. While the product doesn't match the commercial model yet - and it will take some time to do so - these make a compelling case for equal consideration for BA and AA.
Virgin's unaligned status is perhaps the biggest fly in the ointment for the proposed tie up. Sir Richard is vociferous in his opposition. He knows full well that should the alliance be approved then his position as an independent will become almost if not actually untenable.
On the regulatory front - the Regulators have bowed to airline pressure and suspended some key anti-competitive measures such as the use it or lose it rule at major EU airports.
So will it happen?
My personal opinion is that judging from recent approvals under the current incumbent of the EC's Transportation Czar that their will be tacit approval. However not so fast. The EC has launched investigations into the LH dominance while at the same time approving LH's acquisition of BD. There is no rush on anyone's part at the moment. The sea of red ink - with IATA screaming BASTA - will likely be $9 billion this year. There really is no urgency to get this done. The impatience of BA and AA even if Transportation gives them approval will have to wait for significant anti competitive investigation that frankly could take years.
Like I said at the beginning - this has yet to run its course and while another battle with the old gunslingers shooting at each other doesn't mean the end is in sight.
I think we can rest easy in our beds knowing that there will not be any major casualties and even if someone does get wounded - they are going to get up and fight another day. Wyatt Arpy and Doc Walsh are not going to be the heroes, not today anyway.
Cheers
08 June 2009
WIT Program Focuses on Startups
I have always had a soft spot for start ups. In my career I have probably reviewed hundreds of business plans and heard innumerable pitches of good ideas and frankly some real corkers.
For WIT in Singapore October 20-23 entrepreneurs will be given the chance to pitch to some of the most experienced people in the field and a crack at a 50,000 dollar grant. For full details go here:
http://www.webintravel.com/index.php/newsroom/39-news/492-wit-start-up-pitch-in-full-swing.html
The process starting now will lead up to a chance to pitch in front of a live audience during WIT's 5th anniversary session.
May the best idea win!
Cheers
For WIT in Singapore October 20-23 entrepreneurs will be given the chance to pitch to some of the most experienced people in the field and a crack at a 50,000 dollar grant. For full details go here:
http://www.webintravel.com/index.php/newsroom/39-news/492-wit-start-up-pitch-in-full-swing.html
The process starting now will lead up to a chance to pitch in front of a live audience during WIT's 5th anniversary session.
May the best idea win!
Cheers
The Professor Returns
Dear Readers
I hope you will forgive my silence over the last 3 weeks. I took some urgent time due to the passing of my mother who made it to the grand old age of 98.
I hope to return to regular posting in the coming days.
Thanks for your understanding and all the notes of condolences.
Cheers
I hope you will forgive my silence over the last 3 weeks. I took some urgent time due to the passing of my mother who made it to the grand old age of 98.
I hope to return to regular posting in the coming days.
Thanks for your understanding and all the notes of condolences.
Cheers
15 May 2009
Brits Want It Warm - But Where?
Those nice people at Skyscanner have been happy to share their search data with us.
Here are the list of risers:
Going Up – the biggest rising summer holiday destinations for Brits
1. Bangkok, Thailand (+271%)
2. Los Angeles, USA (+170%)
3. Porto, Portugal (+163%)
4. Dalaman, Turkey (+160%)
5. Orlando, USA (+158%)
6. Istanbul, Turkey (+157%)
7. Sharm El Sheik, Egypt (+156%)
8. Bodrum, Turkey (+153%)
9. Burgas, Bulgaria (+152%)
10. Oslo, Norway (+143%)
And the Biggest Losers?
Going Down – biggest falls in interest of summer holiday destinations for Brits
1. Prague, Czech Republic (-15%)
2. Cork, Republic of Ireland (-13%)
3. Paphos, Cyprus (-11%)
4. Geneva, Switzerland (-6.5%)
5. Palma, Spain (-6%)
6. Pisa, Italy (-5.5%)
7. Nice, France (-5%)
8. Bordeaux, France (-4.5%)
9. Menorca, Spain (-4%)
10. Venice, Italy (-3%)
Biggest rises and losses in flight searches on Skyscanner.net for summer 09 (May 1st-Aug 30th) compared to summer 08. Flights from UK airports.
Interesting - draw your own conclusion. For more details go to www.skyscanner.net
Cheers
Here are the list of risers:
Going Up – the biggest rising summer holiday destinations for Brits
1. Bangkok, Thailand (+271%)
2. Los Angeles, USA (+170%)
3. Porto, Portugal (+163%)
4. Dalaman, Turkey (+160%)
5. Orlando, USA (+158%)
6. Istanbul, Turkey (+157%)
7. Sharm El Sheik, Egypt (+156%)
8. Bodrum, Turkey (+153%)
9. Burgas, Bulgaria (+152%)
10. Oslo, Norway (+143%)
And the Biggest Losers?
Going Down – biggest falls in interest of summer holiday destinations for Brits
1. Prague, Czech Republic (-15%)
2. Cork, Republic of Ireland (-13%)
3. Paphos, Cyprus (-11%)
4. Geneva, Switzerland (-6.5%)
5. Palma, Spain (-6%)
6. Pisa, Italy (-5.5%)
7. Nice, France (-5%)
8. Bordeaux, France (-4.5%)
9. Menorca, Spain (-4%)
10. Venice, Italy (-3%)
Biggest rises and losses in flight searches on Skyscanner.net for summer 09 (May 1st-Aug 30th) compared to summer 08. Flights from UK airports.
Interesting - draw your own conclusion. For more details go to www.skyscanner.net
Cheers
Indaba-2009 - More of the Same
The Professor was not able to go to Indaba in Durban ZA this year... I do hope to next!
So how was it? From a distribution and general sentiment point of view - the optimist in me would say quiet.
The Professor's local spy noted that it was much quieter and wetter than last year, crowds were well down. The opening night beach party was postponed for an hour, but the rain was coming down so hard that not many people went anyway. They do need to think about this in future.
Travelport had a breakfast function and announced nothing (again).
Announcements of a new deal between Travelport and SAA have been imminent for some time but don't hold your breath.
Cheers - there is always next year
So how was it? From a distribution and general sentiment point of view - the optimist in me would say quiet.
The Professor's local spy noted that it was much quieter and wetter than last year, crowds were well down. The opening night beach party was postponed for an hour, but the rain was coming down so hard that not many people went anyway. They do need to think about this in future.
Travelport had a breakfast function and announced nothing (again).
Announcements of a new deal between Travelport and SAA have been imminent for some time but don't hold your breath.
Cheers - there is always next year
US ARC numbers - Getting Better?
Pre-Swine/Pig/Mexican/H1N1 Flu numbers have just been published for Jan-April 2009 for US agency sales.
They may show a little bit of hope - however the possibility has been dashed with the early returns for May as reported by Travelport that show transactions dropping yet again.
Sorry chaps... lets hope for a recovery in June.
Cheers
14 May 2009
Do Web Ads Have Time Period Sensitivity?
This is a fascinating question - is there a prime time to the web when advertising is better received.
As we all know (or should know by now) the web is now absorbing as much mindshare as TV. For certain population segments the web has surpassed that of TV. Conan O'Brien who takes over from Jay Leno on the Tonight Show June 1st is even running ads on the US Network NBC touting that his show looks better on TELEVISION.
eMarketer using UK research drawn from Lightspeed Research and the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB UK), show that the best time is (not surprisingly) night time.
http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=34367341
Now note that because effectively you live in REAL time on the web - yet you can time shift tv - this is more effective information that can be used. Thus Evening viewers really are evening viewers rather than slotting a commercial into US Prime Time TV that has a greater than 40% chance that it will be time shifted.
But perhaps we should accept that the amount of influence formal advertising has over us has diminished over time and now the new "Hidden Persuaders"* are those who run Google and Facebook.
Time to finally move over Madison Avenue - its all about the Valley now.
Cheers
* For those who are tender in their youth and don't get the reference - go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vance_Packard
As we all know (or should know by now) the web is now absorbing as much mindshare as TV. For certain population segments the web has surpassed that of TV. Conan O'Brien who takes over from Jay Leno on the Tonight Show June 1st is even running ads on the US Network NBC touting that his show looks better on TELEVISION.
eMarketer using UK research drawn from Lightspeed Research and the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB UK), show that the best time is (not surprisingly) night time.
http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=34367341
Now note that because effectively you live in REAL time on the web - yet you can time shift tv - this is more effective information that can be used. Thus Evening viewers really are evening viewers rather than slotting a commercial into US Prime Time TV that has a greater than 40% chance that it will be time shifted.
But perhaps we should accept that the amount of influence formal advertising has over us has diminished over time and now the new "Hidden Persuaders"* are those who run Google and Facebook.
Time to finally move over Madison Avenue - its all about the Valley now.
Cheers
* For those who are tender in their youth and don't get the reference - go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vance_Packard
Latest Airline TLA/Buzzword - ATI
So the airlines all want it - legislators (as if they don't have enough to do are very happy to enjoy this distraction) - what the heck am I talking about ATI?
Anti
Trust
Immunity
So frankly I am not a huge fan of creating specific exemptions from good laws. Anti-Trust Immunity means that you are engaging in a practice that you freely admit is anti-Trust (and therefore against the law) yet you want to be exempt so you can engage in something that well is not exactly consumer friendly.
I prefer Black and White. Grey/Gray is not a good color combination.
At the moment there is a significant debate driven largely by Continental's shift from Skyteam to Star and by the expansion of the 3 big alliances. BA-AA-IB (that's BAAABI to regulars of this blog) is still out there. Now the BTC has thrown its voice in support of AA in this manner.
So let's see if I get this right. Several OneWorld airlines are requesting ATI so that they can combine their resources at LHR and across the Atlantic (in normal times among the most profitable routes on the planet), OK fair enough so far. But by combining them - they have a footprint that is at least bigger than all their competitors combined? The justification? the other ATI players have bigger footprints in their home markets. Following their logic this safeguards competition?
Sorry I just don't and cannot buy that argument.
Interestingly enough Air Transport World in their latest editorial penned by Perry Flint is voicing its objection to the EC proposal to make the ATI automatically reviewed at least every 3 years.
I really think that we need to have good competition. We need to have fair competition. I am against ATI. I hope that in future - there will be a clear formula that can emerge that will allow airlines to compete truly competitively without Government Intervention except for consumer protection.
Right now I don't see it. I guess I am more in the Richard Branson camp on this one.
This is going to be a battle that will run for some time yet. May the fairest of them all win out.
Cheers
Anti
Trust
Immunity
So frankly I am not a huge fan of creating specific exemptions from good laws. Anti-Trust Immunity means that you are engaging in a practice that you freely admit is anti-Trust (and therefore against the law) yet you want to be exempt so you can engage in something that well is not exactly consumer friendly.
I prefer Black and White. Grey/Gray is not a good color combination.
At the moment there is a significant debate driven largely by Continental's shift from Skyteam to Star and by the expansion of the 3 big alliances. BA-AA-IB (that's BAAABI to regulars of this blog) is still out there. Now the BTC has thrown its voice in support of AA in this manner.
So let's see if I get this right. Several OneWorld airlines are requesting ATI so that they can combine their resources at LHR and across the Atlantic (in normal times among the most profitable routes on the planet), OK fair enough so far. But by combining them - they have a footprint that is at least bigger than all their competitors combined? The justification? the other ATI players have bigger footprints in their home markets. Following their logic this safeguards competition?
Sorry I just don't and cannot buy that argument.
Interestingly enough Air Transport World in their latest editorial penned by Perry Flint is voicing its objection to the EC proposal to make the ATI automatically reviewed at least every 3 years.
I really think that we need to have good competition. We need to have fair competition. I am against ATI. I hope that in future - there will be a clear formula that can emerge that will allow airlines to compete truly competitively without Government Intervention except for consumer protection.
Right now I don't see it. I guess I am more in the Richard Branson camp on this one.
This is going to be a battle that will run for some time yet. May the fairest of them all win out.
Cheers
LAN Loses Baggage Container To JAL 747
Or better known as LD2 meets outboard starboard engine
At LAX a passing JAL 747-400 pax aircraft sucked in a loose LAN owned LD1 lower deck container. It could have been a LD3 we cannot tell - LAN owns both types. The exact details are on Monday 11 May 2009, a metal baggage container - measuring approximately 5 feet by 5 feet by 4 feet - was sucked into the engine of a Japan Airlines Boeing 747 with 245 passengers from Los Angeles International Airport. The accident occurred about 1:30 p.m. when Flight 61 to Narita, Japan, pulled back from Gate 101 at the Tom Bradley International Terminal. Airport officials said the vacuum created by the air intake of the left outboard engine was so strong it pulled the empty container off a baggage cart that was either parked or driven too close to the aircraft. There were no injuries and other arrangements were made for the 245 passengers and 18 crew members
The result - a great day for Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=picE8ZvknpA
At LAX a passing JAL 747-400 pax aircraft sucked in a loose LAN owned LD1 lower deck container. It could have been a LD3 we cannot tell - LAN owns both types. The exact details are on Monday 11 May 2009, a metal baggage container - measuring approximately 5 feet by 5 feet by 4 feet - was sucked into the engine of a Japan Airlines Boeing 747 with 245 passengers from Los Angeles International Airport. The accident occurred about 1:30 p.m. when Flight 61 to Narita, Japan, pulled back from Gate 101 at the Tom Bradley International Terminal. Airport officials said the vacuum created by the air intake of the left outboard engine was so strong it pulled the empty container off a baggage cart that was either parked or driven too close to the aircraft. There were no injuries and other arrangements were made for the 245 passengers and 18 crew members
The result - a great day for Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=picE8ZvknpA
EC Gets Tough On Air Ticket Pricing (Update - see at end)
The European Commission is on a mission to force airline tickets to be displayed to the consumer as clearly and as plainly as well as - er - paint. Thus the price offered is the price you pay. A collision course you might say with the airlines and their distributors who are trying to drive ancillary revenue from add-ons. Something that many airlines believe and are now demonstrating is actually saving their behinds.
The EC has a clear position and has enacted legislation to ensure that the conditions are clear and unambiguous. EC Vice President Antonio Tajani (ITALY), in charge of Transport said, "Applying full price transparency is an obligation under the air services regulation. It is a duty for airlines to impose high standards across the industry; it is our responsibility to ensure that all players respect the same rules. This is of first and foremost importance for the consumer who wants to compare prices across airlines and make a real choice."
Thanks to Professor Andrew in Saint Louis for this tip. Today (May 14th) the EC published is second report. There are several links to go to:
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/09/783&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
For the first round of tables go here:
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/08/287&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
So far they are not naming the bad people only the good ones or the ones "not yet in compliance".
Bottom line folks - the US could learn a thing or two about this form of consumer protection. You can be sure the Obama Administration and Jim Oberstar http://oberstar.house.gov/ are all over this one. Will we see a US bill of rights or a charter of the same sort WITH teeth? not likely at this stage.
However it is clear that if the airline play the ancillary revenue obfuscation game - it is inviting re-regulation. Be careful what you wish for!
Cheers
The EC's enforcement page was down when I wrote the first version of this post. Therefore you can now find the enforcement details updated here:
http://ec.europa.eu/consumers/enforcement/sweep/index_en.htm
The EC has a clear position and has enacted legislation to ensure that the conditions are clear and unambiguous. EC Vice President Antonio Tajani (ITALY), in charge of Transport said, "Applying full price transparency is an obligation under the air services regulation. It is a duty for airlines to impose high standards across the industry; it is our responsibility to ensure that all players respect the same rules. This is of first and foremost importance for the consumer who wants to compare prices across airlines and make a real choice."
Thanks to Professor Andrew in Saint Louis for this tip. Today (May 14th) the EC published is second report. There are several links to go to:
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/09/783&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
For the first round of tables go here:
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/08/287&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
So far they are not naming the bad people only the good ones or the ones "not yet in compliance".
Bottom line folks - the US could learn a thing or two about this form of consumer protection. You can be sure the Obama Administration and Jim Oberstar http://oberstar.house.gov/ are all over this one. Will we see a US bill of rights or a charter of the same sort WITH teeth? not likely at this stage.
However it is clear that if the airline play the ancillary revenue obfuscation game - it is inviting re-regulation. Be careful what you wish for!
Cheers
The EC's enforcement page was down when I wrote the first version of this post. Therefore you can now find the enforcement details updated here:
http://ec.europa.eu/consumers/enforcement/sweep/index_en.htm
Busy Week... Lots of Stories!
So this has been a busy few weeks. While I have been on the road - I have spent some time trying to understand the state of the travel "economy". There are some noticeable representative signs of the recession. Hotels have fewer staff. Whole floors have been shut off. Restaurants are noticeably less full. etc etc.
The big question for many remains are we there yet? There being the bottom of the curve. Even if we are "there" which a few people seem to believe - the next sequential question is what sort of recovery will we have and how long will it take to return to "normal" - whatever that is.
The general consensus seems to be that the general market is down around 12 points. Consistent with what I have been saying so far - this is the 15%. What we are seeing continues to confirm the position that the GDSs are suffering far worse than the overall market. This is due to the nature of the bulk of their business being dependent on the corporate market. Travelport's numbers this week are stark evidence of the depth of the downturn. Worldspan's numbers continue to plummet Galileo is not doing much better.
The retraction is affecting just about everyone. We do see some bright spots. Norwegian is a good example - they seem to be profiting from the re-trenchment of SAS. LAN is another example who is determined to face the recession by expanding. Despite some pretty awful numbers - Lufthansa seems determined to bulk up through acquisition of some smaller players in Europe.
So here are some other stories that have caught my eye and a few comments:
Ryanair continues its relentless push towards the automated airline. One major new charge - lose your automated boarding pass and you have to pay the equivalent of $55. To the relief of Americans coming to Europe, FR has announced that it will not be charging the fat tax - with a caveat. As soon as they figure out how to collect it without disrupting 25 minute turn arounds - then you can expect it to come back.
Air Jamaica has a new twist on the second bag price. Oh yes we make you pay and we dont guarantee delivery on this flight. Come back tomorrow was a headline in Travel Weekly. Not that JM's bag services have been anything to write home about of late!
Chris Rodrigues is relinquishing the CEO title to his deputy at Visit Britain. Looks like he wants a more political focus in the run up to the UK Olympics in 3 years.
ATM was great say the organizers. You know my opinion. It really was a lot less than last year. So far I have not seen official statistics other than the number of stands - I wonder of that quantity - how many of them were actually occupied.
Speaking of Dubai - this week's stupid vendor tricks award goes to FlyDubai.
Here is a snap shot of their announcements page.
As you can see - even though they dont start service until June they want to default the booking widget to today's date. Tsk Tsk. For a professional outfit like FZ, they (and their provider Radixx) should do better. Still I wish them all the best for their first flights that take off on June 1st. Air Arabia watch out - these guys are coming for your blood!
Also Emirates (no relation to FlyDubai) has concluded a deal with BT to consolidate their call centers into a single global comms entity. More power to them on this one - their 9 CCs and then various CTOs will now be linked by a new network provided by BT.
SITA announced one of the first deliverables in its next gen PSS - the Customer Journey CJ to replace the former passenger record we all know and love called the PNR. Best of luck to Jim Peters and his crew on this one.
And finally - latest to hold out the hand or more accurately point the nose into the stimulus trough is Sabre. They are raising dire warnings of hell fire and brimstone if the government doesnt do something to stimulate travel (and consequently improve Sabre's GDS bookings!).
The big question for many remains are we there yet? There being the bottom of the curve. Even if we are "there" which a few people seem to believe - the next sequential question is what sort of recovery will we have and how long will it take to return to "normal" - whatever that is.
The general consensus seems to be that the general market is down around 12 points. Consistent with what I have been saying so far - this is the 15%. What we are seeing continues to confirm the position that the GDSs are suffering far worse than the overall market. This is due to the nature of the bulk of their business being dependent on the corporate market. Travelport's numbers this week are stark evidence of the depth of the downturn. Worldspan's numbers continue to plummet Galileo is not doing much better.
The retraction is affecting just about everyone. We do see some bright spots. Norwegian is a good example - they seem to be profiting from the re-trenchment of SAS. LAN is another example who is determined to face the recession by expanding. Despite some pretty awful numbers - Lufthansa seems determined to bulk up through acquisition of some smaller players in Europe.
So here are some other stories that have caught my eye and a few comments:
Ryanair continues its relentless push towards the automated airline. One major new charge - lose your automated boarding pass and you have to pay the equivalent of $55. To the relief of Americans coming to Europe, FR has announced that it will not be charging the fat tax - with a caveat. As soon as they figure out how to collect it without disrupting 25 minute turn arounds - then you can expect it to come back.
Air Jamaica has a new twist on the second bag price. Oh yes we make you pay and we dont guarantee delivery on this flight. Come back tomorrow was a headline in Travel Weekly. Not that JM's bag services have been anything to write home about of late!
Chris Rodrigues is relinquishing the CEO title to his deputy at Visit Britain. Looks like he wants a more political focus in the run up to the UK Olympics in 3 years.
ATM was great say the organizers. You know my opinion. It really was a lot less than last year. So far I have not seen official statistics other than the number of stands - I wonder of that quantity - how many of them were actually occupied.
Speaking of Dubai - this week's stupid vendor tricks award goes to FlyDubai.
Here is a snap shot of their announcements page.
As you can see - even though they dont start service until June they want to default the booking widget to today's date. Tsk Tsk. For a professional outfit like FZ, they (and their provider Radixx) should do better. Still I wish them all the best for their first flights that take off on June 1st. Air Arabia watch out - these guys are coming for your blood!
Also Emirates (no relation to FlyDubai) has concluded a deal with BT to consolidate their call centers into a single global comms entity. More power to them on this one - their 9 CCs and then various CTOs will now be linked by a new network provided by BT.
SITA announced one of the first deliverables in its next gen PSS - the Customer Journey CJ to replace the former passenger record we all know and love called the PNR. Best of luck to Jim Peters and his crew on this one.
And finally - latest to hold out the hand or more accurately point the nose into the stimulus trough is Sabre. They are raising dire warnings of hell fire and brimstone if the government doesnt do something to stimulate travel (and consequently improve Sabre's GDS bookings!).
10 May 2009
"Brits Want It Warm" Says Skyscanner
Skyscanner like several other sites does these nice polls. I like the ones they do as they provide a nice little insight to the minds of the consumer from different perspectives.
Of course I would caution anyone in reading too much into such research. So they asked Britons why they travel. For the full results go here:
http://news.skyscanner.net/articles/2009/05/002355-warm-weather-wins-over-value-say-skyscanner-holidaymakers.html
Commenting on the results - Barry Smith one of the founders said “Our poll shows that Britons’ love of sun is still the most important driving force behind holiday location choice. Although the recession is influencing travel choices, escaping Britain’s gloomy climate is the most essential goal. Sunny countries that are non-euro such as Turkey and Croatia are likely to be especially popular this summer.”
Now here is the conundrum. Brits like many other nationalities in Europe have kept their wallets, purses, handbags and cash closed. Thus there has been far less advance booking this year. If the UK summer is going to be good then the chances for a late booking bonanza is not likely. The weather prognostication is just that - a hot British Summer. People are going to be staying at home and spending their money at B&Q and Homebase rather than Ryanair and Thomas Cook.
Look for the volume of special offers to pick up in the coming weeks.
Cheers
Of course I would caution anyone in reading too much into such research. So they asked Britons why they travel. For the full results go here:
http://news.skyscanner.net/articles/2009/05/002355-warm-weather-wins-over-value-say-skyscanner-holidaymakers.html
Commenting on the results - Barry Smith one of the founders said “Our poll shows that Britons’ love of sun is still the most important driving force behind holiday location choice. Although the recession is influencing travel choices, escaping Britain’s gloomy climate is the most essential goal. Sunny countries that are non-euro such as Turkey and Croatia are likely to be especially popular this summer.”
Now here is the conundrum. Brits like many other nationalities in Europe have kept their wallets, purses, handbags and cash closed. Thus there has been far less advance booking this year. If the UK summer is going to be good then the chances for a late booking bonanza is not likely. The weather prognostication is just that - a hot British Summer. People are going to be staying at home and spending their money at B&Q and Homebase rather than Ryanair and Thomas Cook.
Look for the volume of special offers to pick up in the coming weeks.
Cheers
09 May 2009
ATM and Dubai – A Perspective
I did say I would try and avoid doom and gloom stories- but I think that this is a story that should be told.
This week the Professor was in Dubai during Arabian Travel Mart. I use the opportunity to both catch up with clients, friends and even people who don’t fall into either of these categories. The marketplace is very subdued. There are grim faces everywhere. Rumours are flying of the doom and gloom variety. I can attest to several first hand observations of the depth of the collapse in Dubai. I do not use that word lightly. While there are some positive signs from Emirates of stable passenger numbers, EK is not immune from the same pressures that Legacy carriers such as BA and Delta are experiencing. The International Herald Tribune had an article May 8th 2009 on the impact of the biz travel downturn on SQ, BA and others. It is clearly a state of affairs that has astounded everyone by the depth and breadth of the reductions.
The ATM show itself was down in exhibitor volume. The halls that handled the property groups were actually closed. Throughout the show there were empty stand positions, something I do not recall from prior shows. I attended all 3 days and on no day did the attendance look anything like prior years. It was frankly very quiet, I had meetings at the coffee shop in the center of the halls and I could observe the traffic on both entrances – there was no rushing, no bunching . I am sure numbers must be down at least 20% probably a lot more. The building program exacerbated the problems of taxis and I am sure that this upset and frustrated many a show goer. I went out of my way to talk to hoteliers to get their perspectives. I was so taken aback by their war stories. Typical responses: “ we don’t know when we will be back to above 40% occupancy” and “I doubt we are even covering our opex let alone debt coverage.”
One night I went with some colleagues to the new Atlantis resort at the end of the first completed Palm. To say that it was quiet would be like saying a mortuary was a busy place. Rates are down universally. I spoke to several people who gave me first hand stories of deals they had received. Even the top hotels like the Jumeriah properties, The Fairmont and the Grand Hyatt all had evidence of heavy discounting.
The exodus of the expat community is also significant. While no hard numbers exist – I was again quite taken aback by the number of people I knew personally who had left or were leaving.
It is going to take a long time for normality to return. By normality – I mean reasonable yield and occupancy levels. Clearly Dubai has to do a lot to remarket itself and lower its costs. The Saudi traveler who is the most coveted customer these days has so many choices elsewhere that he needs to be courted and sold to rather than held at arms length.
New skills like selling rather than order taking will need to be learned.
Cheers
This week the Professor was in Dubai during Arabian Travel Mart. I use the opportunity to both catch up with clients, friends and even people who don’t fall into either of these categories. The marketplace is very subdued. There are grim faces everywhere. Rumours are flying of the doom and gloom variety. I can attest to several first hand observations of the depth of the collapse in Dubai. I do not use that word lightly. While there are some positive signs from Emirates of stable passenger numbers, EK is not immune from the same pressures that Legacy carriers such as BA and Delta are experiencing. The International Herald Tribune had an article May 8th 2009 on the impact of the biz travel downturn on SQ, BA and others. It is clearly a state of affairs that has astounded everyone by the depth and breadth of the reductions.
The ATM show itself was down in exhibitor volume. The halls that handled the property groups were actually closed. Throughout the show there were empty stand positions, something I do not recall from prior shows. I attended all 3 days and on no day did the attendance look anything like prior years. It was frankly very quiet, I had meetings at the coffee shop in the center of the halls and I could observe the traffic on both entrances – there was no rushing, no bunching . I am sure numbers must be down at least 20% probably a lot more. The building program exacerbated the problems of taxis and I am sure that this upset and frustrated many a show goer. I went out of my way to talk to hoteliers to get their perspectives. I was so taken aback by their war stories. Typical responses: “ we don’t know when we will be back to above 40% occupancy” and “I doubt we are even covering our opex let alone debt coverage.”
One night I went with some colleagues to the new Atlantis resort at the end of the first completed Palm. To say that it was quiet would be like saying a mortuary was a busy place. Rates are down universally. I spoke to several people who gave me first hand stories of deals they had received. Even the top hotels like the Jumeriah properties, The Fairmont and the Grand Hyatt all had evidence of heavy discounting.
The exodus of the expat community is also significant. While no hard numbers exist – I was again quite taken aback by the number of people I knew personally who had left or were leaving.
It is going to take a long time for normality to return. By normality – I mean reasonable yield and occupancy levels. Clearly Dubai has to do a lot to remarket itself and lower its costs. The Saudi traveler who is the most coveted customer these days has so many choices elsewhere that he needs to be courted and sold to rather than held at arms length.
New skills like selling rather than order taking will need to be learned.
Cheers
Stupid Vendor Tricks
It never ceases to amaze me how some suppliers treat their customers.
I most cases the customer is treated like an idiot. Or worse that he is given a useless offer that is just not deliverable,
Let me give you an example.
Avis… I rent them all the time. They tell me how wonderful I am and that they award me free rental weekends. So far I have NEVER been able to use them.
Now comes news of their latest offer. Rent for one week a premium car and you can have for 2 days a GPS for free. So of course we will all want to go through the hassle of returning the unit. And really we want to rent a unit for the whole 5 other days….
Hello people!!!
Note to vendors, treat your users with respect and they will respond to you. And ALWAYS remember Newton’s second law:
To every action there is an equal and opposite REACTION.
Cheers
I most cases the customer is treated like an idiot. Or worse that he is given a useless offer that is just not deliverable,
Let me give you an example.
Avis… I rent them all the time. They tell me how wonderful I am and that they award me free rental weekends. So far I have NEVER been able to use them.
Now comes news of their latest offer. Rent for one week a premium car and you can have for 2 days a GPS for free. So of course we will all want to go through the hassle of returning the unit. And really we want to rent a unit for the whole 5 other days….
Hello people!!!
Note to vendors, treat your users with respect and they will respond to you. And ALWAYS remember Newton’s second law:
To every action there is an equal and opposite REACTION.
Cheers
Capacity continues to fall – dramatically – Are we there yet?
I have just spent nearly a week in the UK and have been looking at the current situation of the market. I think we all know that premium traffic is just a disaster. Last week British Airways announced a 2:1 sale on business class. This on top of their free seats for SMEs.
Capacity continues to fall globally. On this scale, the world's airlines have cut 6% flights for April 2009 Y/Y with a 3% drop in seat capacity. According to the latest statistics from OAG, frequencies and capacity within the UK for April are down year on year by 13% and 14% respectively, the last time the April figures for the UK were lower than this was in 2001. International services to and from the UK are down by 10%. The LCC sector is not immune either with a 12% reduction in capacity. In the USA another metric is the reduction of the number of routes. In one year according to anna aero the number has dropped domestically by 300.
So have we reached the bottom yet? Sorry – I don’t think so. With a bumper summer being promised for the UK – I don’t see people opening their wallets for flights. Instead they are going to be spending it in their back gardens and working on some DIY. This past April – while not the warmest on record was the 10th warmest April ever recorded. People are not going to be too keen to travel….
Of course if this week’s Bank Holiday is anything to go by – then we know that every bank Holiday this summer will be guaranteed to rain!
Cheers
Capacity continues to fall globally. On this scale, the world's airlines have cut 6% flights for April 2009 Y/Y with a 3% drop in seat capacity. According to the latest statistics from OAG, frequencies and capacity within the UK for April are down year on year by 13% and 14% respectively, the last time the April figures for the UK were lower than this was in 2001. International services to and from the UK are down by 10%. The LCC sector is not immune either with a 12% reduction in capacity. In the USA another metric is the reduction of the number of routes. In one year according to anna aero the number has dropped domestically by 300.
So have we reached the bottom yet? Sorry – I don’t think so. With a bumper summer being promised for the UK – I don’t see people opening their wallets for flights. Instead they are going to be spending it in their back gardens and working on some DIY. This past April – while not the warmest on record was the 10th warmest April ever recorded. People are not going to be too keen to travel….
Of course if this week’s Bank Holiday is anything to go by – then we know that every bank Holiday this summer will be guaranteed to rain!
Cheers
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