With UA restructuring by borrowing $659 million to refinance debt; the US airlines have now completed a round of debt refinancing.
So far we have seen all the US majors (with the exception of WN whose balance sheet is quite healthy thank you). This doesn’t mean that the effort is over. Far from it.
US, UA, CO, DL, AA have all managed to engage in some financial re-engineering over the past 4 months. This is good because it means going into the “bad” winter season - the carriers have bolstered their cash positions and will now emerge next year reasonably healthy. It also shows that the credit markets are indeed loosening up. So the US airlines are now a reasonable bet for the coming months. I think we will see a period of stock declines until the first shoots of spring start to pick up. However – I think we will see only good news on lift numbers. Yield of course will remain depressed.
With the US carriers now with a cleaner financial bill of health – what about the other airlines. BA is in need of some financial help. Irish carrier Aer Lingus is still a basket case. JAL we know is sick. The other airline to watch is Scandinavian. They are struggling. Camping outside Star partner LH is not necessarily the right answer but seems to be the only conventional outcome. Among the other airlines – we see that Malaysian is “accelerating” its restructuring program. There are several other airlines that are in similar situations.
One thing is for certain – the airlines will emerge in 2010 much leaner. Anyone who doesn’t will find themselves somewhat challenged in fighting the competition.
Cheers
05 October 2009
03 October 2009
Amadeus to German Agents: Free Money!
At the FVW Kongress in Cologne last month, Amadeus offered a hint in a speech that they would be reconsidering the issue of the 4.90 Euros fee that Lufthansa has been leveraging for segments booked on Amadeus for the PFP program.
A quick recap. Last year LH introduced the Private Fares Program which essentially raised all fares 15 Euros each way if the fares were booked without a contract. With a special contract between LH and the agency - the agents could get the lower negotiated rate provided it was booked via a channel that LH designated. Travelport and Sabre signed up for the program and therefore there is no charge for agents from LH for PNRs booked via these GDSs on the PFP fares. The largest GDS in Germany is Amadeus. For the first 6 months or so they picked up the 4.90 fee until they realized how much it would cost them to do so. This "pick up the tab" program ended at the start of February this year. Thus agents who book a PFP fare now pay 4.90 per segment for every ticket issued via Amadeus. Interestingly it is collected via an agent debit memo!
Fast forward to yesterday Amadeus has announced that it will again pick up the tab for the fee - well now its only SOME of the fee. They are offering to pay 3.40 Euros for the LH PFP segments. Leaving just 1.50 to still be funded by the agent.
Battle lines drawn again - clearly there must have been an impact in the German market for Amadeus by defections to the airline direct, to other GDSs and to third party technology solutions such as offered by AER Ticket (the largest consolidator) via the LUTE platform.
One has to ask why? and why now?
The offer by Amadeus states that it will be effective from January 1 2010 for the whole year or until Amadeus and its part owner Lufthansa come to some agreement. This could be very expensive for Amadeus even at the lower fee. So free money for the agents.
Interestingly one has to ask if Lufthansa has become successful at this why don't other airlines propose to do the same? Indeed is this a model for airlines outside of the German market? AF/KL have already tried this with Travelport earlier in 2009 which brought a new level of agreement between the two. So it seems that airlines have found a tool with which to leverage a different contract arrangement between the players.
With the GDSs unbundling their services and appearing (if one can judge from the Travelport financials) to be able to increase their yields from the airlines, it seems only natural that the airlines need to push back. This might be the answer. I leave you all to work out the mathematics on this one.
In our discussions with agencies on the current status of the market for GDS products, my team and I have noticed a trend that (according to multiple agents) in different markets the GDSs are not in fact cutting back the incentives but offering even more in some cases greater incentives than before.
There will be tears....someone is bound not to be happy.
Cheers
A quick recap. Last year LH introduced the Private Fares Program which essentially raised all fares 15 Euros each way if the fares were booked without a contract. With a special contract between LH and the agency - the agents could get the lower negotiated rate provided it was booked via a channel that LH designated. Travelport and Sabre signed up for the program and therefore there is no charge for agents from LH for PNRs booked via these GDSs on the PFP fares. The largest GDS in Germany is Amadeus. For the first 6 months or so they picked up the 4.90 fee until they realized how much it would cost them to do so. This "pick up the tab" program ended at the start of February this year. Thus agents who book a PFP fare now pay 4.90 per segment for every ticket issued via Amadeus. Interestingly it is collected via an agent debit memo!
Fast forward to yesterday Amadeus has announced that it will again pick up the tab for the fee - well now its only SOME of the fee. They are offering to pay 3.40 Euros for the LH PFP segments. Leaving just 1.50 to still be funded by the agent.
Battle lines drawn again - clearly there must have been an impact in the German market for Amadeus by defections to the airline direct, to other GDSs and to third party technology solutions such as offered by AER Ticket (the largest consolidator) via the LUTE platform.
One has to ask why? and why now?
The offer by Amadeus states that it will be effective from January 1 2010 for the whole year or until Amadeus and its part owner Lufthansa come to some agreement. This could be very expensive for Amadeus even at the lower fee. So free money for the agents.
Interestingly one has to ask if Lufthansa has become successful at this why don't other airlines propose to do the same? Indeed is this a model for airlines outside of the German market? AF/KL have already tried this with Travelport earlier in 2009 which brought a new level of agreement between the two. So it seems that airlines have found a tool with which to leverage a different contract arrangement between the players.
With the GDSs unbundling their services and appearing (if one can judge from the Travelport financials) to be able to increase their yields from the airlines, it seems only natural that the airlines need to push back. This might be the answer. I leave you all to work out the mathematics on this one.
In our discussions with agencies on the current status of the market for GDS products, my team and I have noticed a trend that (according to multiple agents) in different markets the GDSs are not in fact cutting back the incentives but offering even more in some cases greater incentives than before.
There will be tears....someone is bound not to be happy.
Cheers
02 October 2009
Nokia Buys Dopplr - Finally Mobile Gets Travel?
The leading mobile players are the handset guys and the networks.
Up till now they have disdained the travel market plumbing for the sexier applications such as music. However I have always believed that the real deployment of smart handsets would occur when the applications moved into being more generic.
Although there was a link between Dopplr and Nokia before (shall we just say it was family), the move is a smart one for Nokia. They are now staking a claim in the concept that the handset really is a PID - Personal Information Device. This makes the device a serious contender for the user's favorite service. Up till now Blackberry has been leading in this space with the delivery of most applications via the BB service.
The stunning success of Apple and the iphone has changed the paradigm. The vast number of user based applications is great but after a while you are bewildered with the array of choice and the support of these applications makes big demands on the user. Great and fun for now in a social context - but perhaps not so interesting in the "useful" category. I realize that I will be slammed by the faithful for this statement - but bear with me a little. I have watched a lot of iPhone users (from the original to the latest 2 versions) and you can see how the lack of some functionality hurts and the frustration of having too many different apps becomes counter productive. In essence the line "there is an application for that" is now replaced with "how the heck do I manage all that".
The silence of the network providers is stunning in all of this. The profitability of the mobile environment even after forking out all that money for 3G licenses remains almost obscene. However the network providers who have tried so desperately to avoid becoming just a pipe as the internet was for fixed line operators are not necessarily winning the war for the hearts and minds of the user. We are seeing higher churn rates in different countries where the networks have matured. I believe that the applications like Dopplr need to be offered by the networks and that the networks need to be far more involved in the PID services than they have in the past.
So SOME of Mobile gets Travel. When will Mobile really get Travel? I am hoping that it will be sooner rather than later.
Up till now they have disdained the travel market plumbing for the sexier applications such as music. However I have always believed that the real deployment of smart handsets would occur when the applications moved into being more generic.
Although there was a link between Dopplr and Nokia before (shall we just say it was family), the move is a smart one for Nokia. They are now staking a claim in the concept that the handset really is a PID - Personal Information Device. This makes the device a serious contender for the user's favorite service. Up till now Blackberry has been leading in this space with the delivery of most applications via the BB service.
The stunning success of Apple and the iphone has changed the paradigm. The vast number of user based applications is great but after a while you are bewildered with the array of choice and the support of these applications makes big demands on the user. Great and fun for now in a social context - but perhaps not so interesting in the "useful" category. I realize that I will be slammed by the faithful for this statement - but bear with me a little. I have watched a lot of iPhone users (from the original to the latest 2 versions) and you can see how the lack of some functionality hurts and the frustration of having too many different apps becomes counter productive. In essence the line "there is an application for that" is now replaced with "how the heck do I manage all that".
The silence of the network providers is stunning in all of this. The profitability of the mobile environment even after forking out all that money for 3G licenses remains almost obscene. However the network providers who have tried so desperately to avoid becoming just a pipe as the internet was for fixed line operators are not necessarily winning the war for the hearts and minds of the user. We are seeing higher churn rates in different countries where the networks have matured. I believe that the applications like Dopplr need to be offered by the networks and that the networks need to be far more involved in the PID services than they have in the past.
So SOME of Mobile gets Travel. When will Mobile really get Travel? I am hoping that it will be sooner rather than later.
01 October 2009
So How Much Was/Is BMI Worth?
About 4 and half LHR slots.
Today LH announced buying the remaining 20% of BD for $38 million. That is less than a slot pair price at LHR. Thus the total value of the airline is - well about - 4 and a half LHR slots.
Last time I checked BD is the #2 carrier at LHR.
It also bought BMED for 30 million pounds. With at least 11 slots at LHR. So you do the maths....
Cheers
Timothy
Today LH announced buying the remaining 20% of BD for $38 million. That is less than a slot pair price at LHR. Thus the total value of the airline is - well about - 4 and a half LHR slots.
Last time I checked BD is the #2 carrier at LHR.
It also bought BMED for 30 million pounds. With at least 11 slots at LHR. So you do the maths....
Cheers
Timothy
29 September 2009
New Numbers from US TIA and UK CAA – Still Not Good
While I think there is a return to optimism (from the downright pessimism) all is not yet right. We are not back to a state of growth if we will ever be back to that same level that existed in say 2007.
The latest data from TIA and the UK's CAA for the month of July shows the 9th consecutive fall of expenditure. Remember that this was the month when traffic started to pick up. With the pound strengthening against the dollar (as the latter falls yet again) we should see some positive signs soon. Given the lag time – we may see traffic uptick in September compared to 9/08 when confidence took a dive.
The positive side is that on time performance has improved.
Yields will continue to be depressed for quite some time. 2010 will be a year of stability. As I predicted at the end of 2008 – we should see some positive signs in September – just based on the drop in the prior year. Bu the emergence from the recession will not be even. The US may emerge faster than say UK. Asia Pacific is still pretty much in the doldrums. LCCs are fairing a LOT better than their networked bretheren.
Let’s hope that things start to improve soon.
Cheers
The latest data from TIA and the UK's CAA for the month of July shows the 9th consecutive fall of expenditure. Remember that this was the month when traffic started to pick up. With the pound strengthening against the dollar (as the latter falls yet again) we should see some positive signs soon. Given the lag time – we may see traffic uptick in September compared to 9/08 when confidence took a dive.
The positive side is that on time performance has improved.
Yields will continue to be depressed for quite some time. 2010 will be a year of stability. As I predicted at the end of 2008 – we should see some positive signs in September – just based on the drop in the prior year. Bu the emergence from the recession will not be even. The US may emerge faster than say UK. Asia Pacific is still pretty much in the doldrums. LCCs are fairing a LOT better than their networked bretheren.
Let’s hope that things start to improve soon.
Cheers
BFF vs FFF
So I am fascinated by the way that the social networks have dominated much of our thinking and indeed how pervasive they are. Yesterday I attended a family event in France with a large amount of my relatives there were 4 generations represented. It was quite a show.
However the biggest topic of conversation was how we could all continue to maintain our relationships given that we were highly disparate. The family is now spread from Sydney to Seattle and all points in between. Most of us are now connected via Facebook so we will continue to expand that link.
Now it struck me that these are real family and BFFs – we grew up together. A lot of shared experiences. Good or bad they are real.
At the same time – I have become increasingly aware of a new class of person - I call them FFFs or Faux Friend Followers. These are the people who try to link to you and also follow you on Twitter. These are people who actually benefit from being your “friend” and in your “network”. I admit that I have probably linked to people in the past in order to enhance the value of my own network. But I have lately tried to be judicious about this. I am trying to personally ask with a personalized message rather than … link to me….
So I am going to be pretty hard about FFFs. For my personal relationships – I will maintain a tight control. For a public persona – perhaps I wont be quite so picky and choosy. But just because we are linked doesn’t make us BFFs.
So what about your relationships? Is this the same for you?
I might use this as my next poll topic
Cheers
However the biggest topic of conversation was how we could all continue to maintain our relationships given that we were highly disparate. The family is now spread from Sydney to Seattle and all points in between. Most of us are now connected via Facebook so we will continue to expand that link.
Now it struck me that these are real family and BFFs – we grew up together. A lot of shared experiences. Good or bad they are real.
At the same time – I have become increasingly aware of a new class of person - I call them FFFs or Faux Friend Followers. These are the people who try to link to you and also follow you on Twitter. These are people who actually benefit from being your “friend” and in your “network”. I admit that I have probably linked to people in the past in order to enhance the value of my own network. But I have lately tried to be judicious about this. I am trying to personally ask with a personalized message rather than … link to me….
So I am going to be pretty hard about FFFs. For my personal relationships – I will maintain a tight control. For a public persona – perhaps I wont be quite so picky and choosy. But just because we are linked doesn’t make us BFFs.
So what about your relationships? Is this the same for you?
I might use this as my next poll topic
Cheers
27 September 2009
The Professor's Alter Ego Now On TNOOZ
OK so occasionally I will expose my real self (no this is not the naked bike ride). However I am honoured to be part of a new community of contributors in TNOOZ started by Kevin May - he of Travolution fame.
I highly recommend the site because you will get a good group of minds focused on the area we all know and love.
Passion will definitely be there. Analysis - yes. Dissent? Guaranteed.
Just the sort of thing you want to make sense of the fluff, the noise, the laughter and the joy - not to mention the BS and sniffware.
Cheers
I highly recommend the site because you will get a good group of minds focused on the area we all know and love.
Passion will definitely be there. Analysis - yes. Dissent? Guaranteed.
Just the sort of thing you want to make sense of the fluff, the noise, the laughter and the joy - not to mention the BS and sniffware.
Cheers
Best Cartoon Found This Week
I love the New Yorker. I get so rarely to read it - perhaps I should subscribe.
However this year my family gave me the New Yorker Cartoon one a day calendar. September second's entry can be viewed from the New Yorker website
It really does reflect what I am....
Enjoy it
Cheers
However this year my family gave me the New Yorker Cartoon one a day calendar. September second's entry can be viewed from the New Yorker website
It really does reflect what I am....
Enjoy it
Cheers
787 - I will be watching VERY carefully which plane I fly
So let's assume that the 787 program will now go smoothly - as we have seen that's a big - very big - assumption. But humour me here for a moment.
Reading FlightBlogger's post on the production schedule it confirms the beliefs that I have harboured for some time.
1. The prototype will be pretty far from the production standard.
2. The early models will have gone through several modifications.
The first one is to be expected.
However the process of modifying the early production aircraft is somewhat drastic. As there are a lot of unknowns in the design and process of Boeing's new integrated supply chain this represents a sea change of activity ranging from the material (composite vs metal) to the production process (disparate vs all in the same place). As Boeing has frequently admitted this was not their finest hour and they still have to get the supply chain monster under control.
I realize that all aircraft are somewhat wonders of integration that get them into the air in the first place. However the element that causes me so much concern is that from the gitgo the process was designed to lead to a high volume production rate with little thought (in my opinion) to the process of incorporating changes. If you want an example of how spectacularly that could fail look no further than the now defunct Eclipse Aviation.
Bottom line for me - I will be avoiding flying on ANA and other early adopters of the 787. I shall be watching for aircraft tail numbers tied into MSN numbers before boarding a 787 commercially. However I wish everyone success in this project. Just let me not be the guinea pig.
Cheers
Reading FlightBlogger's post on the production schedule it confirms the beliefs that I have harboured for some time.
1. The prototype will be pretty far from the production standard.
2. The early models will have gone through several modifications.
The first one is to be expected.
However the process of modifying the early production aircraft is somewhat drastic. As there are a lot of unknowns in the design and process of Boeing's new integrated supply chain this represents a sea change of activity ranging from the material (composite vs metal) to the production process (disparate vs all in the same place). As Boeing has frequently admitted this was not their finest hour and they still have to get the supply chain monster under control.
I realize that all aircraft are somewhat wonders of integration that get them into the air in the first place. However the element that causes me so much concern is that from the gitgo the process was designed to lead to a high volume production rate with little thought (in my opinion) to the process of incorporating changes. If you want an example of how spectacularly that could fail look no further than the now defunct Eclipse Aviation.
Bottom line for me - I will be avoiding flying on ANA and other early adopters of the 787. I shall be watching for aircraft tail numbers tied into MSN numbers before boarding a 787 commercially. However I wish everyone success in this project. Just let me not be the guinea pig.
Cheers
BIABLT and Innovation
One of the Professor's favorite sayings are:
Because Its Always Been Like That. BIABLT. This week Gerry McGovern picks up on the theme to explain about challenging the status quo.
So what does BIABLT signify? It signifies the reasons why some rather illogical and very often times unnecessary processes, procedures etc exist. it should also be a catalyst to challenge this status quo and find innovative ways around the issue or problem.
Gerry's examples are a bit lame - it is a series of metaphors on Ovens and Pigs - but his point should be well taken. In these days of GFC and challenged budgets, we have to be innovative more than we have ever been. it means that we cannot sit on our hands. It also means that we should NEVER ASSUME anything.
One of my father's favorite expressions was "Opposite of the Obvious". Now that is a lesson we can all learn
Cheers
Because Its Always Been Like That. BIABLT. This week Gerry McGovern picks up on the theme to explain about challenging the status quo.
So what does BIABLT signify? It signifies the reasons why some rather illogical and very often times unnecessary processes, procedures etc exist. it should also be a catalyst to challenge this status quo and find innovative ways around the issue or problem.
Gerry's examples are a bit lame - it is a series of metaphors on Ovens and Pigs - but his point should be well taken. In these days of GFC and challenged budgets, we have to be innovative more than we have ever been. it means that we cannot sit on our hands. It also means that we should NEVER ASSUME anything.
One of my father's favorite expressions was "Opposite of the Obvious". Now that is a lesson we can all learn
Cheers
CAPA and IAG's Airline Dummy's Guide To Social Media
Almost but not quite but a very good (and thorough) piece on Twitter and Blogging with focus as a how to get ahead on Twitter as an airline.
Entitled The Airline Industry and Social Media - A Review & Analysis it is available from CAPA or IAG. Mention The Professor - via a chat link and you will get a 10% discount from IAG. (Because I am a nice person). You can purchase it here. it was prepared as a joint venture from IAG, CAPA and the Travelstrategist.com. (NOTE the Professor does not profit from this discount).
This report is explained in pretty simple and (for a Dummy like me) straightforward.
I recommend this report to any airline considering taking the plunge into the Digital Dysfunctional world.
One caveat. Do it quickly. This information and the background info will age fast. However for now it is a great tool for some guidance. The dos and don'ts are points to be taken by anyone - airline dummy or not.
Cheers
Entitled The Airline Industry and Social Media - A Review & Analysis it is available from CAPA or IAG. Mention The Professor - via a chat link and you will get a 10% discount from IAG. (Because I am a nice person). You can purchase it here. it was prepared as a joint venture from IAG, CAPA and the Travelstrategist.com. (NOTE the Professor does not profit from this discount).
This report is explained in pretty simple and (for a Dummy like me) straightforward.
I recommend this report to any airline considering taking the plunge into the Digital Dysfunctional world.
One caveat. Do it quickly. This information and the background info will age fast. However for now it is a great tool for some guidance. The dos and don'ts are points to be taken by anyone - airline dummy or not.
Cheers
26 September 2009
The GFC 101 - Listen Here...
Probably like many people who think they are smart - we really don't understand what created the meltdown we now call the Global Financial Crisis.
This is the suspicion that there was a lot of bad things going on - but exactly what is hard to comprehend.
Well step in NPR (US Public Radio Network) and Ira Glass - This American Life. Episode 390
For a very neat and easy to understand synopsis that really brings home what happened. This is a great piece.
Highly recommended by the Professor.
This is the suspicion that there was a lot of bad things going on - but exactly what is hard to comprehend.
Well step in NPR (US Public Radio Network) and Ira Glass - This American Life. Episode 390
For a very neat and easy to understand synopsis that really brings home what happened. This is a great piece.
Highly recommended by the Professor.
More Stupid Airline Tricks - When is a Boarding Pass Not Really a Boarding Pass? When It's From Air France.
OK - so I have to go to a Funeral in France. Sad all round but I managed to get a seat courtesy of my German Travel Agent (Thanks Evi!!!)
So she produced the right documentation for me and I have an Air France Record Locator. So after getting the same error and waiting for several hours on the phone with AF (I gave up after 1 hour the first time - the second I was rewarded after a 90 minute wait) - I managed to speak to an agent. I would like to thank her but didn't catch her name - she was very helpful!
So she guided me through the process of issuing a BP online.
Here are the last 2 screens (of 10 that I had to go through BTW). the left one is the final confirmation - the right hand one is the actual print out of my document. So look at the circled items.
I just love the breadcrumb indicator - It says "BOARDING PASS."
Also on the page on the left it says:
Thank you for checking in online
"Your confirmation print is being opened in a PDF file."
The small print reads as follows:
Departure information
* Upon arrival at the airport, follow the instructions on your boarding pass.
* If you wish to print out or reprint your boarding pass later, you can do so before the Check-in Deadline for your flight:
- by entering your electronic ticket number on the Internet check-in log-in screen,
- or directly at the airport, either at a Self-Service Kiosk or by going to the appropriate check-in counter.
* If you have baggage to check, please go to the ""baggage drop-off"" counter before the check-in deadline. Otherwise you can make your way directly to the boarding gate.
* Thank you for using our Internet check-in. Air France KLM wishes you a pleasant trip.
OK so there are three references two of them say "Boarding Pass" and one says "Confirmation". So I guess I would go with the majority. FOOLISH ME!!!
So you hit the print button, and print the formal document but there is a small disclaimer...(the right image) that says:
CONFIRMATION TO BE GIVEN TO THE DESK
Reminder, this is not a boarding pass.
OK so AF which is it. Do I have a BP or not? Well we know the answer - its a Gallic Shrug....
Oh yes - a couple of other stupid AF pet tricks...
1. The premium seats are available for $65 each. (See my post from yesterday on BA's new insane pricing).
2. AF's seat maps on DL don't correspond to the real ones.
3. Amadeus does not give you the real AF record locator. It is yet another fake one from the Erding based host.Fortunately the AF agent gave me the correct one.
4. The AF error gave no indication of the problem - just told me that there was a web site error and that they were going to fix it in the "shortest terms" I don't make this stuff up.
Need I go on....
Dear AF+KL+DL+NW - can you get this working a little better for my next time on your new Transatlantic Alliance flight.
Thanks!
Gotta love these guys.... where do they find the people to create these things? I really want to go and learn at these airline schools of disinformation. It would make any propaganda ministry proud.
Cheers
Quiet Cuts Indicate Prudence at Boeing and Airbus
Latest viewing of the production numbers for both Boeing show that both AirFramers are taking a prudent look at their production schedules.
While Airbus announced a production cut rate from 36-34 aircraft it is still maintaining that the new China facility will ramp up to 4 aircraft per month. Not much in the big picture of things when there are thousands of aircraft on back order.
However as can be seen orders can and do have a habit of evaporating. If we look at the current production environment, it is interesting to look at what is actually rolling off the line.
For the Seattle based (but Chicago HQ'd Boeing its product line is down to just 2 families. It has 767s in essentially trickle mode to support the supposed tanker contract to come, 787s are still a long way off from production mode, 747s are waiting the delivery of the first round of 747-8/9s so that leaves the 777 and 737 stalwarts. For Airbus - A380s have never ramped up, and don't look like doing so any time soon. It is essentially a hand built aircraft with the possibility of the Toulouse line sending a few straight to the desert. 330/340 line is just ticking along benefiting from the failure to deliver the 787 but the 340 is unlikely to make old bones and will quietly sunset despite the recent delivery of the 1000th in the line joint twin/four line. Airbus is being very careful with its narrow body line. Despite the disruptions last year - strike at Boeing and industrial action of the Power8 union opposition - we are seeing continued restraint.
No one wants to take any large quantities of aircraft. Indeed Ryanair who has been taking them at quite a lick (6 in the space of 4 weeks earlier this year) August saw them taking none. A large number of them are heading out on lease and to be parked by the time the end of October comes around.
So no one is being bullish till late 2010 more likely 2011. Actually Boeing's troubles with the 787 could not have occurred at a better time. That said - the production ramp for the new mid size twin will be slow. When the market picks up in 2011 - Boeing will not be able to meet the demand. Airbus on the other hand will be able to with A330s becoming the flavor of the month. With EK indicating a big interest in a large order as their new "off peak" craft - others better start polishing their cheque books.
The cyclical nature seems to be working again but just look at that back log. Makes you wonder.
Cheers
While Airbus announced a production cut rate from 36-34 aircraft it is still maintaining that the new China facility will ramp up to 4 aircraft per month. Not much in the big picture of things when there are thousands of aircraft on back order.
However as can be seen orders can and do have a habit of evaporating. If we look at the current production environment, it is interesting to look at what is actually rolling off the line.
For the Seattle based (but Chicago HQ'd Boeing its product line is down to just 2 families. It has 767s in essentially trickle mode to support the supposed tanker contract to come, 787s are still a long way off from production mode, 747s are waiting the delivery of the first round of 747-8/9s so that leaves the 777 and 737 stalwarts. For Airbus - A380s have never ramped up, and don't look like doing so any time soon. It is essentially a hand built aircraft with the possibility of the Toulouse line sending a few straight to the desert. 330/340 line is just ticking along benefiting from the failure to deliver the 787 but the 340 is unlikely to make old bones and will quietly sunset despite the recent delivery of the 1000th in the line joint twin/four line. Airbus is being very careful with its narrow body line. Despite the disruptions last year - strike at Boeing and industrial action of the Power8 union opposition - we are seeing continued restraint.
No one wants to take any large quantities of aircraft. Indeed Ryanair who has been taking them at quite a lick (6 in the space of 4 weeks earlier this year) August saw them taking none. A large number of them are heading out on lease and to be parked by the time the end of October comes around.
So no one is being bullish till late 2010 more likely 2011. Actually Boeing's troubles with the 787 could not have occurred at a better time. That said - the production ramp for the new mid size twin will be slow. When the market picks up in 2011 - Boeing will not be able to meet the demand. Airbus on the other hand will be able to with A330s becoming the flavor of the month. With EK indicating a big interest in a large order as their new "off peak" craft - others better start polishing their cheque books.
The cyclical nature seems to be working again but just look at that back log. Makes you wonder.
Cheers
25 September 2009
The Professor's Readers are "Luddites" when it comes to Twitter
So the latest poll of the Professor's readers was about their attitude to Twitter.
I have left this one up for a long time. I would have thought that the readership was smooth suave and sophisticated. More James Bond than Jummy Cagney, Think Erudite.
Well when it comes to Twitter - the sentiment is that they are Luddites and it would appear - happy to be so.
Latest poll results with 9 days left to go are:
I am a Luddite (57%)
I am a sneek peeker (15%)
I find it useful (15%)
I am a manic Tweeter (13%)
Hmmmm anyone care to explain this?
I will comment on it at the end of the poll.
Cheers
I have left this one up for a long time. I would have thought that the readership was smooth suave and sophisticated. More James Bond than Jummy Cagney, Think Erudite.
Well when it comes to Twitter - the sentiment is that they are Luddites and it would appear - happy to be so.
Latest poll results with 9 days left to go are:
I am a Luddite (57%)
I am a sneek peeker (15%)
I find it useful (15%)
I am a manic Tweeter (13%)
Hmmmm anyone care to explain this?
I will comment on it at the end of the poll.
Cheers
BA's New Seat Policy Puts You In Control Of WHAT?
So The Professor - who is silver is exempt from the new Seating charges (well a little bit).
I present to you the rules for Silver members. This is the REAL email I received... read it and I challenge you not to reach for the Gin by about half way through.
Sorry last time I forgot to acknowledge Professor Mike who brought this whole thing to my attention.
Drinkies Time..............
TEXT FOLLOWS
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Dear Professor Sabena,
From 07 October 2009 we will be introducing a change to our seating policy. This change will give more passengers the option to choose their seat before check-in for an additional fee.
As a Silver Executive Club member, you can still choose a seat available in your class of travel when booking without charge.
However, if you would like to select an exit row* seat in World Traveller and World Traveller Plus, these can now be selected for an additional charge of £50/$75*. To choose an exit row seat, you will simply need to call us any time between 10 and 4 days before your departure.
If you have an existing booking for an exit row seat, or arrange one before 07 October, there will be no additional fee. Please note, if you wish to choose an exit row seat on or after 07 October then you will need to pay the additional fee, regardless of the date your booking was made.
Of course, if you are flying in any other cabin you can choose any seat at the time of booking.
If you have any questions about our new policy, please visit ba.com/paidseating for more details.
We look forward to welcoming you on board again soon.
Warm regards,
James Hillier
Executive Club Manager
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*Exit row seats are subject to availability and to passengers meeting the requirements of the Civil Aviation Authority ( www.caa.co.uk). British Airways has the sole discretion to determine whether a passenger meets the requirements to sit in an exit row seat. Passengers with additional needs should contact us so that suitable seating arrangements can be made. Seats may need to be changed, even after boarding the aircraft for operational, safety or security reasons. Seating charges are per passenger, per sector. In some cases, paid seating may not be immediately available on 7th October, please ask your call centre for more information. Refunds will only be provided if we have to change your seat and cannot seat you in a suitable alternative. Please see ba.com/paidseating for more details.
This email was sent to ProfessorSabena@gmail.com. You have received this email because you have opted to receive Executive Club marketing emails from the British Airways Group. If you no longer wish to receive marketing emails, please click here and ensure you submit ProfessorSabena@gmail.com, the email address you signed up with. Please allow 10 days for all requests to be actioned. Clicking through to ba.com from this email will allow us to track your use of our website and enable us to show content and offers of most interest to you. We never share this information with third parties. If you would prefer this not to happen, please go to ba.com through your web browser. To refer to our privacy policy, please click here.
If you have any questions please click here to contact us.
British Airways Plc registered office: Waterside, Speedbird Way, Harmondsworth, UB7 0GB. Registered in England: 1777777.
This email is intended solely for the addressee(s) and the information it contains is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, (a) please delete this email and inform the sender as soon as possible, and (b) any copying distribution or other action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance upon it is prohibited and may be unlawful.
I present to you the rules for Silver members. This is the REAL email I received... read it and I challenge you not to reach for the Gin by about half way through.
Sorry last time I forgot to acknowledge Professor Mike who brought this whole thing to my attention.
Drinkies Time..............
TEXT FOLLOWS
Home
Log in
Benefits
Flights
Dear Professor Sabena,
From 07 October 2009 we will be introducing a change to our seating policy. This change will give more passengers the option to choose their seat before check-in for an additional fee.
As a Silver Executive Club member, you can still choose a seat available in your class of travel when booking without charge.
However, if you would like to select an exit row* seat in World Traveller and World Traveller Plus, these can now be selected for an additional charge of £50/$75*. To choose an exit row seat, you will simply need to call us any time between 10 and 4 days before your departure.
If you have an existing booking for an exit row seat, or arrange one before 07 October, there will be no additional fee. Please note, if you wish to choose an exit row seat on or after 07 October then you will need to pay the additional fee, regardless of the date your booking was made.
Of course, if you are flying in any other cabin you can choose any seat at the time of booking.
If you have any questions about our new policy, please visit ba.com/paidseating for more details.
We look forward to welcoming you on board again soon.
Warm regards,
James Hillier
Executive Club Manager
Home
Log in
Benefits
Flights
Contact us
*Exit row seats are subject to availability and to passengers meeting the requirements of the Civil Aviation Authority ( www.caa.co.uk). British Airways has the sole discretion to determine whether a passenger meets the requirements to sit in an exit row seat. Passengers with additional needs should contact us so that suitable seating arrangements can be made. Seats may need to be changed, even after boarding the aircraft for operational, safety or security reasons. Seating charges are per passenger, per sector. In some cases, paid seating may not be immediately available on 7th October, please ask your call centre for more information. Refunds will only be provided if we have to change your seat and cannot seat you in a suitable alternative. Please see ba.com/paidseating for more details.
This email was sent to ProfessorSabena@gmail.com. You have received this email because you have opted to receive Executive Club marketing emails from the British Airways Group. If you no longer wish to receive marketing emails, please click here and ensure you submit ProfessorSabena@gmail.com, the email address you signed up with. Please allow 10 days for all requests to be actioned. Clicking through to ba.com from this email will allow us to track your use of our website and enable us to show content and offers of most interest to you. We never share this information with third parties. If you would prefer this not to happen, please go to ba.com through your web browser. To refer to our privacy policy, please click here.
If you have any questions please click here to contact us.
British Airways Plc registered office: Waterside, Speedbird Way, Harmondsworth, UB7 0GB. Registered in England: 1777777.
This email is intended solely for the addressee(s) and the information it contains is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, (a) please delete this email and inform the sender as soon as possible, and (b) any copying distribution or other action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance upon it is prohibited and may be unlawful.
BA Sets Whopping Charges For Seats
I think everyone knows that BA is having a bit of a hard time. Things have not gone its way lately. So in an effort to drum up some new revenue, BA is going to set new charges for seat assignments. And boy are they going to be expensive. But its very curious as to their stated logic of why they are charging such astronomical fees.
So get this - according to the BBC – British Airways customers will have to pay through the nose from October 7th 2009. Prices range from £10 per person for European economy flights, to £60 (no that is not a misprint) for long haul trips in business class.
BA said it would "give customers more control over their seating options". But they already have control... so how is charging them for it more "control"?
The airline says it currently allows passengers to reserve seats in the 24 hours prior to departure. This is not entirely true. Silver and Gold card holders can reserve their seats at any time in any class. Premium passengers can also do the same. That should take care of at least 50% of BA's passengers.
The new charge - the airline claims are aimed at passengers wanting to reserve seats earlier than this - will be £20 on long-haul economy or short flights in business class, while a seat in an emergency exit row will cost £50. These are staggering charges at best. But this is also not true. Again premium passengers don't currently have this restriction. Ditto for Gold and Silver players. So let me see if I get this right. I can pretty much
This can be booked between 10 and four days before take-off. Currently I can change my seats as a Silver member up to 8 hours prior to take off and immediately after booking. So what am I missing here?
A BA spokeswoman said: "Customers frequently request specific seats, but in the past we've only been able to confirm them 24 hours in advance or on the day. We know people want to secure them in advance and have real control over their flying experience. This will allow them to do that."
Well I am sorry - as any BA FF knows this is also only partially true. So I find it hard to understand why BA would be telling quite a few whopping fibs like this.
BA PR hacks again? I wonder if the Tax man is going to look now at BA’s fees and ask if that constitutes diversion away from the ticket charge.
C'mon BA - you can be better than this....
So get this - according to the BBC – British Airways customers will have to pay through the nose from October 7th 2009. Prices range from £10 per person for European economy flights, to £60 (no that is not a misprint) for long haul trips in business class.
BA said it would "give customers more control over their seating options". But they already have control... so how is charging them for it more "control"?
The airline says it currently allows passengers to reserve seats in the 24 hours prior to departure. This is not entirely true. Silver and Gold card holders can reserve their seats at any time in any class. Premium passengers can also do the same. That should take care of at least 50% of BA's passengers.
The new charge - the airline claims are aimed at passengers wanting to reserve seats earlier than this - will be £20 on long-haul economy or short flights in business class, while a seat in an emergency exit row will cost £50. These are staggering charges at best. But this is also not true. Again premium passengers don't currently have this restriction. Ditto for Gold and Silver players. So let me see if I get this right. I can pretty much
This can be booked between 10 and four days before take-off. Currently I can change my seats as a Silver member up to 8 hours prior to take off and immediately after booking. So what am I missing here?
A BA spokeswoman said: "Customers frequently request specific seats, but in the past we've only been able to confirm them 24 hours in advance or on the day. We know people want to secure them in advance and have real control over their flying experience. This will allow them to do that."
Well I am sorry - as any BA FF knows this is also only partially true. So I find it hard to understand why BA would be telling quite a few whopping fibs like this.
BA PR hacks again? I wonder if the Tax man is going to look now at BA’s fees and ask if that constitutes diversion away from the ticket charge.
C'mon BA - you can be better than this....
24 September 2009
Olympic: Next Skyteam Member?
So this is speculation on my part.
Olympic has just filed for some code-share agreements with DL and the DL subsidiary Comair.
However given that the former national carrier is but a mere shadow of itself this is becoming somewhat likely. Its main rival is Aegean who is already on the boards to become a full member of Star by mid 2010. So what is left - not much - Skyteam seems to be the best option. it is already in cooperation with AF so this seems to be the logical solution.
We shall see - but in the event they go this way - then you heard it here first!!!
Cheers
Olympic has just filed for some code-share agreements with DL and the DL subsidiary Comair.
However given that the former national carrier is but a mere shadow of itself this is becoming somewhat likely. Its main rival is Aegean who is already on the boards to become a full member of Star by mid 2010. So what is left - not much - Skyteam seems to be the best option. it is already in cooperation with AF so this seems to be the logical solution.
We shall see - but in the event they go this way - then you heard it here first!!!
Cheers
JAL Hedges Its Bets. Seeks Bailout
So JAL doesn't seem to be impressed with the response for pleas of help from AMR and Delta. Either they will take too long or the plans don't look good.
Either way JAL has gone cap in hand to the Government.
Japan Airlines (latest) chief executive (of many), Haruka Nishimatsu, met yesterday with Japan’s new transport minister, Seiji Maehara, to discuss the carrier’s future. Nishimatsu confirmed to the media that he had asked the new administration for money, though he did not reveal how much.
Judging by its current predicament - it is burning through about $1 Billion per quarter. it has already announced layoffs of about 7000 which is a deep cut for a carrier like JAL.
Things don't look too good.
Either way JAL has gone cap in hand to the Government.
Japan Airlines (latest) chief executive (of many), Haruka Nishimatsu, met yesterday with Japan’s new transport minister, Seiji Maehara, to discuss the carrier’s future. Nishimatsu confirmed to the media that he had asked the new administration for money, though he did not reveal how much.
Judging by its current predicament - it is burning through about $1 Billion per quarter. it has already announced layoffs of about 7000 which is a deep cut for a carrier like JAL.
Things don't look too good.
How Not To Have A Transaction Site
So the winner of this week's really bad website award goes to: SNCF.
I have not had the pleasure of using SNCF for a few years. So I thought it would be streamlined and efficient as France's top travel site.
Boy was I surprised.
FLASH GONE MAD is the result.
One of the longest page sources I have ever seen. It is a dog's dinner of images conflicting elements and the end result... ALMOST completely unusable.
Their management of the different country versions showed me that I could access some content at some times through the different countries but not at other times.
Different results from different country versions too was somewhat disconcerting.
If ever there was a camel - the SNCF site is it.
French gone mad.... Flash gone mad... Web people gone mad. I really hope that people who are regular users rebel and flood the phone lines. Oh but wait - that generates money for SNCF... so perhaps this is a fiendish plot to get people to use toll lines that the Railway company gets money for... talk about ancillary revenue. This coming from the company that operates at a loss. Indeed one of the most heavy loss making entities in the global travel market.
Take heart Netizens - there is always a site worse than yours. Here is an example.
Cheers
I have not had the pleasure of using SNCF for a few years. So I thought it would be streamlined and efficient as France's top travel site.
Boy was I surprised.
FLASH GONE MAD is the result.
One of the longest page sources I have ever seen. It is a dog's dinner of images conflicting elements and the end result... ALMOST completely unusable.
Their management of the different country versions showed me that I could access some content at some times through the different countries but not at other times.
Different results from different country versions too was somewhat disconcerting.
If ever there was a camel - the SNCF site is it.
French gone mad.... Flash gone mad... Web people gone mad. I really hope that people who are regular users rebel and flood the phone lines. Oh but wait - that generates money for SNCF... so perhaps this is a fiendish plot to get people to use toll lines that the Railway company gets money for... talk about ancillary revenue. This coming from the company that operates at a loss. Indeed one of the most heavy loss making entities in the global travel market.
Take heart Netizens - there is always a site worse than yours. Here is an example.
Cheers
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