05 December 2009

British Airways's New (Paid) Seating Policy VERY COMPLICATED

I have written before that BA's new seating policy was way too complicated. So one of the Professors sent me the ACTUAL BA Travel Agent Guide for the new seating policy.

Brace yourself....

ITS TWENTY ONE PAGES LONG!!!!

What are they thinking? I like BA's services in general but they do tend to give me a lot of fodder for this blog because they tend to do some rather silly things.

This is another example of why things need to be simpler. If this is the official guide for the agent - imagine how complicated and confusing it could be for a consumer.

I am absolutely amazed at this. if you would like a copy - email me and I will send it privately to you.

This is a public service of the Professor Sabena Blog.

Cheers

04 December 2009

So Who The Heck Is it?


Airbus snuck in (a little unsubtly) an unnounced order for 52 A320 class aircraft.

Speculation is rife.

So here is a short list of my candidates!

United
Ryanair
Delta

I probably have it wrong but its nice to purely speculate.
When its revealed who it is - then I will give you my reasons

BTW there is a caveat. I am assuming these are firm orders. Airbus tends to have a habit of having somewhat flexible orders.

Cheers

When Is A Guaranteed Fare Not One? Ask BA

During the past week we have seen what can happen when an iconic brand is severely damaged by a single event - intentional or not.

One of the integral parts of the Air Transportation system is that the contractual relationship between the airline and its customers is firm and hard.

The customer is required to perform and the agent in the middle (should there be one) is required to ensure enforcement of many complex and in quite a few cases seemingly arcane rules.

This is the basis of the passenger airline system. So it comes as a big surprise to find out that the product you buy as a consumer from the airline is not in fact guaranteed.

The case I am specifically pointing to is British Airways and the infamous $40 fare from the US to India. The details are not in dispute - but 2200 people bought the fare. Can you say Viral!!!!

BA canceled the bookings and offered a $300 compensation credit. Then the DOT stepped in. At which point BA upped the ante and provided additionally compensation for the impact of the canceled reservations with hotels cars etc.

if you would like to read BA's statement on the matter (its quite buried below the fold) click here. But do it quickly I doubt it will be there long.

When the DoT stepped in the Secretary was happy to report:"We are pleased to see that British Airways has accepted responsibility for the fares it published," Ray LaHood said.

I think that both BA and the DOT were fundamentally wrong here. BA for the initial mistake and not honouring its fares and the DOT for creating a precedent and effectively a get out of jail free card for any airline who doesn't like the fares they have contracted for. Chaps this is not good at a time when Congress is agitating for a Passenger Bill of Rights - you have collectively undermined the whole basis of the contract between any airline and the general public with the DOT's blessing.

So Go On Be A .... Tiger

02 December 2009

A380 takes another hit. The Impact EK’s "Hiatus "

The largest customer of the Airbus Behemoth has announced it is taking a breather in A380 deliveries at the end of 2010.

Whether this is a function of the troubles in the Emirate of Dubai is to be seen – however there is one thing for sure – EK is now a pawn in a larger game. The reverberation of the collapse of the Dubai bubble is going to be felt in Toulouse and it is unlikely that Seattle will escape unharmed either.

There is more than the initial list of casualties in the current Dubai World troubles. The issue is going to be the pipeline of future commitments. Consider this – the UAE’s order book of aircraft has been predicated on cheap cash backed by AAA securities. With Dubai’s ability to continue to sustain such ratings it means that there is going to be a significant rise in the cost of money to EK and probably to other entities such as Dubai Aerospace and its various leasing arms. Looking at the disproportionate amount of orders outstanding it will have a long term impact.

Oh yes and another thing – because EK is a healthy business the chances are that it will become a pawn and possibly become collateral for some of the real estate debts is not an unrealistic possibility. In turn this could bring down EK's high value.

Hmm – seems there is going to be tough times all round. The GCC is going to reverberate with this for some time.

30 November 2009

Is TripAdvisor getting sloppy?

Expedia’s TripAdvisor business has come in for a lot of stick lately. Some of which is deserved. Some of which – well it just goes with the territory. But I am going to chastise them for failing to do something that in my mind should be relatively easy and straightforward and thus provide a good service to their customers. I am speaking here about SeatGuru.com

As a frequent flyer (OK so I am not George Clooney) – I depend on the network of committed flyers for information. So I was actually applauding Expedia’s trip advisor when they purchased one of my favorite tools – seatguru.com.

However of late I have noticed that there has been little upgrading of the core content. Sure there is now a lot more digital junk on the site – I can hardly see the real content for the distracting and in my opinion thoroughly unnecessary “stuff” that surrounds it. In the past month I have flown or booked on G3, FR, New RG, AF, U2, AA, BA, DL and CO. in each case I have seen that the Seatguru seat maps frequently do not match either the aircraft or the airlines website version of the aircraft product. When doing the searches the discrepancy widens with some aircraft types not present etc etc.

In fairness to Seatguru – the plethora of seat configurations within each airline is astounding. The airlines are not good at standardizing their aircraft. However this is no excuse for Expedia’s subsidiary for getting sloppy and lazy and not giving more and better information to its users. At the very least the chaps at Seatguru should be on the ball working with the airlines to get valid seat maps out there. If I can see this then they can figure out how to get better quality and be useful to their audience.

In my most recent round of searches here are the statistics:

Total flight segments actually booked – 27 (9 plus 1 where I had to change and throw away a segment, 17 segments that I have to do before the end of the year). Total flight seat maps researched 58. Total mismatch in searches between airline seat maps and Seatguru – 24 (note this included absence of seat maps – 11. . Total mismatch between flights selected and actual aircraft configuration seats 8. Note I didn’t check on the airlines seat maps to actual configuration but I recall just one in which case it was a substituted equipment and I was upgraded (thank you Delta). As you can see these stats are not good.

Mind you I am not a normal flyer…. But these are representative of the airlines that I fly and I am sure that there are many other frustrated FFs out there who share the same opinion. Get with the Program Expedia. If not there will be a lot of people moving to other websites. And yes Virginia there are others. Like ExpertFlyer or seatplans.

Cheers

29 November 2009

O'Leary to Retire.... Say It Ain't So!

Once again MOL is threatening to retire to the Irish Countryside if media reports are to be believed.

This time he sets a 3 year time threshold. It used to be less... but I digress.

The airline is now mature enough to survive without his positive/negative impact. However there is no doubt that MOL will be a figure in history in the LCC phenomenon.

If he does - what's the betting he stays on to create FR - Long haul

Cheers

Former Fulfilment Powerhouse TRX Downsizes

It started out life as OFS - Online Fulfillment Services. its first major customer was Expedia. On the first day of operation there were more managers than there were call center agents. Winning the Expedia (Microsoft) business for fulfillment was the launchpad.

It became TRX and had a pretty colourful life. Basically doing the messy part of the travel process for Expedia and the airlines.

It has now morphed into a much smaller organization. Not quite sure what its core mission is but it still is able to make a profit as its last quarter's results show. However how long it should remain public is a huge question. Parent BCD (who also owns the giant BCD Travel) needs to let the business continue in private hands rather than be distracted by the demands of the public scrutiny as a listed company.

As an Online pioneer - let them emerge without the baggage.

Best of luck to them

Cheers

EasyJet Boosts Yields on Ancillaries, Corporate Travel Increasing

Orange smiles all round it would seem.

Easyjet has been making some headway in the fight on driving yield on their flights. The average flight is yielding more and the Orange Crew seem to be beating the Blue/Yellow crew in this respect.

From the conference call 10 days ago - EZ was able to report the following:

Ancillaries are up 22%, excluding baggage charges.
Baggage charges are up a whopping 62.3%
Business travel accounts for just over 20% of revenue

It is probably the latter that needs to catch the eye of the other LCCs particularly Ryanair.

The take up of Biz Travel can be attributed (and has been) to the availability in the GDS. And this is an important lesson for any LCC. While the GDSs may be an anathema there is logic to providing a well established and simple tool which the TMCs and their corporate clients have access to.

I have made the point before that TMCs tend to be process driven and often at the expense of increased yield. EZ seems to be confirming this. On the heels of improved yields by Southwest as a result of their reappearance in the GDS,

Lest anyone thinks the Professor has gone soft - I firmly believe that the LCCs need to get in front of the standard sources of booking for the Corporate business. But the value of the GDS needs to be weighed carefully. Unless of course you take the extreme view like LH and start charging for access to content.

Yield can be improved by increasing the footprint in front of the TMCs and the Corporate Travel Depts. (CTD)s. Ignore this group at your peril.

Cheers

Results of the AA Distribution Survey

Well you have an interesting point of view! The absolute majority of you agreed that you believe its about time. Which outweighs the nay sayers 2:1, so thank you all for voting.

Here are the results.

Yes - it's about time

(53%)

No - what are they thinking

(25%)

Hmmm - Time will Tell

(17%)

I really cannot make up my mind now

(3%)

Cheers

Stupid Software Tricks - Quickbooks and Windows7

OK - like many people I use Quickbooks. I am not terribly keen to upgrade every year because it seems insane to have to upgrade for this type of service.

So BEWARE if you use Quickbooks - they do NOT support Windows 7 in ANY VERSION other than the latest versions 2010.

I think someone should sue Intuit for being so cavalier in this regard.

Cheers

25 November 2009

Support the Open Cuba Initiative


At PhocusWright Last Week - Barney Harford the new CEO of Orbitz Worldwide devoted about a quarter or more of his speech in support of a passionate appeal for the opening of the Cuba market.

I am very happy to join the voices for an opening of US travel to Cuba and the removal of restrictions.

As a firm believer in the philosophy that travel broadens the mind and breaks down barriers between peoples - I am supporting this effort and ask you to also do the same

For more information please go to Open Cuba website.

Oh and by the way... in case you miss it - I would ignore the bit about agreeing to Orbitz terms and conditions ;-) - check the bottom of the snipp'd part of the Open Cuba website.

Cheers

24 November 2009

JAL Gets Lifeline - Short Term - And What of the Future?

JAL - still reeling from the huge losses - has secured a brief lifeline from its troubles. In Japan the line between government and industry is not as clearly defined as in other economies. This is not a criticism - just a statement of observation. The loan was secured from a company (Development Bank of Japan Inc) 100% owned by the Japanese Government's Ministry of Finance.

According to media reports in Japan the size of the loan is over 100 billion Yen (approx $1.1 Billion) roughly equivelent to the past 6 months worth of losses.

Effectively JAL its management and the Government entity charged with fixing broken companies in Japan - Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corp. of Japan - has 6 months to right the ship. This is hardly enough time for them at the moment to do that. So the clock is ticking.

It seems that a Billion here a Billion there is the game for JAL. The ETI Corp and JAL have three basic tasks in front of them. In a normal economy and in a normal world any of the three would be regarded as a significant challenge. These are not normal times.

The Three Challenges are:

1. Restructure the corporate financial structure of JAL all without appearing to file the equivalent of Chapter 11.
2. Restructure the company work practices and functions to streamline the company and make it effective as an entity against the competition of ANA and in a new more competitive local market.
3. Secure an international partner who will help power the business to a sustainable position outside of the domestic market.

I have commented before that the size and scale of JAL's issues are greater than most people had imagined. The amount of unhappy people will be legion. These range from workers who will lose their jobs, to investors who will lose their stock value to bankers who will also be out their cash. At this point I find it hard from the international perspective to see how American/OneWorld can benefit JAL more than Delta and Skyteam.

Against this backdrop are some interesting negotiations on OpenSkies between Japan and the USA. The new Japanese Administration are getting a baptism by fire. I can only wish for the best for everyone concerned. But as in many cases the answers do not lie in the old ways. The Government of Japan has an opportunity to foster the development of a new order in Air Transport in Japan. Opening the market to Low Cost Air services would be a way to expand the market and ultimately to turn one of the most closed markets into a true example of open competition where land (high speed rail) and air can compete fairly. Lowering the cost of flights to Japan could open up a huge tourist market. Perhaps the Japan of 2010 is ready for this.

Now that's a thought

Cheers

23 November 2009

What Is The Most Expensive Resource?

So here is a little trivia question for you...

Don't read Wikipedia (it wont tell you)...

So here is the riddle...

"This thing all things devour:
Birds, beast, trees, flowers;
Gnaws iron, bites steel;
Grind hard stones to meal;
Slays kings, ruins town,
And beats high mountain down.

Yes friends the answer is...

TIME

This week's piece by
Gerry McGovern's
is about the price we pay to our masters of the web.

It's the same time - TIME. And we used to say that procrastination was the thief of time - now the web has replaced it. But my point this week is that the amount of time that is spent by simply sitting in front of a computer is really a huge waste of this very scarce resource.

Take me for example - I spent the better part of the weekend waiting for the migration from Vista to Windows 7. What another excruciatingly painful and waste of time that was....

However onto more practical things. Our delivery of our products and services have to be better. Gerry's piece makes a very good point. We need to be obsessed - like Google is - with making our sites more efficient and less time consuming. Perhaps we should reward not time spent on site but the shortest time on site.

Think about it

Cheers

Florida to OTAs - See You in Court

So the simmering battle between the OTAs and the States and other jurisdictions on Taxes just went up a notch.

The State of Florida has now formally filed suit against two specific OTAs - Expedia (who is licensed in Florida) and Orbitz (Both LLC and Inc) which are described as foreign corporations in the suit.

Go here to down load the entire filing. (Courtesy of STR).

This is going to be watched and watched. And then this one could even end up on the high court.

Patience by the States seems to be exhausted. I have a feeling this one is just another battle in a very long war.

Cheers

21 November 2009

The Right Stuff - US Pilots

I fly - a lot. I know many of you do too. Our whole livelihood in the Travel industry is dependent frequently on a few folks. The life of a pilot used to be glamorous - perhaps not quite so any more - but its still a great job.

I have always felt that there is a correlation between the task and the enjoyment resulting in a better performance the more you enjoy a job. I always used to use Pilots as an example of that.

Recently I came across a site with an view on airline financials. Bob Herbst runs Airline Financials. Its a great site for information on airlines. It is done with a lot of care and an eye on demystifying much of the jargon in airline investing. I highly recommend the site www.airlinefinancials.com.

However on the site he writes a commentary which I found gave me pause for thought.

I encourage you to read it. It gave me a slightly better and more open view of the value of a pilot. The site is very useful... book mark it.

Cheers

EU Ruling on Flight Delays Compensation Makes US Rules Look Decidedly Inadequate.

The decision last week to mandate that any delay of 3 hours or more is the same as a flight cancellation was a victory for consumer protection and an abject lesson for those willing to understand it.

Formally on November 19th, European Court of Justice in Luxembourg decided that passengers who are forced to wait three hours or more will be compensated 600 euros, the same as if their flight had been cancelled.

There is a lot of documentation on this but there are three critical factors that we should pay attention to:

1. The scope of compensation was broadened to cover delays as well as cancellation. Just as an aside here - this may have a negative effect in that if an airline deems that a flight delay is beyond the threshold then the decision to cancel will be taken early and passengers could be left compensated but stranded - just a thought).

2. The delay time has dropped from 5 hours to three hours

3. The definition of what could be compensated - IE the reasons behind the delay was made less precise with the impact that other traditional "reasons" now become "excuses".

All this makes the US scheme even the proposed Bill of Passenger Rights look decidedly weak.

In my humble opinion the US should enact a clear set of rules along with penalties to force compliance by the airlines in the delivery of their product. At the moment the whole contract process is decidedly one-sided. The airlines can decide what they want to do to modify their part of the contract yet the consumer has little or no ability to do so. That to me is unfair.

And no - for once I am not picking on the airlines - I just fundamentally believe that the contract between two parties should be fair and equal. Currently this is not the case based on arcane rules that stem from the propeller era when the product was a lot less reliable. This is no longer the case and the travelling public in the USA deserve a clear set of rules.

And what do you think?

Cheers

Dynamic Packaging Protection - UK Battle

When is a package not a package?

This is at the core of the argument now being hotly debated in the UK. At the centre of the battle is the case of CAA v Travel Republic and Kane Pirie (TR's Managing Director).

The case was brought by the UK's regulatory body the CAA (Civil Aviation Authority) who is the official regulator for a number of things in the UK including Passenger Safety and the bonding of sellers of products (typically Tour Operators) through its ATOL licensing scheme.

The pursuit of Travel Republic is seen as a test case for the CAA in enforcing its recently broader based view that virtually all holiday sales of flights plus accommodation require ATOL cover. Dynamic packaging has been around for a while - some might say it rose to prominence about 5 years ago but the practice of bundling products has been around for years. The CAA and the bonding process in general has been viewed as inadequate especially following the very high profile collapse of the XL group in 2008. So why now and why pursue Travel Republic?

The answer lies in the contested issue of whether regulations cover the sale of "all" travel products. Further with concentration in the intermediary channels - there is a need for the CAA to get tougher. But there is another reason. The CAA's bond pool has been sorely tested by the recent demise of many retailers and wholesalers. Some have indicated that the bond pool may indeed be under water. The CAA has tried in recent years to broaden the pool by offering smaller retailers reduced rate schemes. Of course the real target are the Online Travel Agencies particularly Expedia. So it is a market dynamic issue that pits the traditional wholesalers (now largely concentrated among a few players) vs the OTAs and the consolidators. Also at stake is a possible advantage commercially in how the VAT is treated.

The case was filed in a lower court - Westminster Magistrates and was moved to Stratford before district judge Nicholas Evans - and TR/Pirie were both charged with 20 counts each of breaching the 1995 regulations. it was clear at the time that the case would ultimately end up in a higher court maybe even all the way to Europe's highest court.

Well Round 1 went to Travel Republic on November 11th.

The following day a number of comments were published by the UK's TTG. Check here to read them.

No one really denies Travel Republic has the best intentions at heart despite the stream of vitriol from the Government's QC who compared Pirie personally to Bernie Madoff. However this is a case that will run and run.

Ultimately we can speculate that if TR is successful - then the government will have to mandate a new scheme for consumer protection. However the government seems to have already jumped the gun by raising the APD much higher. While ostensibly a fee related to Aviation uses it is regarded more as a straight revenue tax to help HM Government pay its somewhat large (and growing) total revenue shortfall.

But caveat emptor is always the case. Should the Government win in the ultimate battle - then the face of consumer protection across Europe will change.

Gotta love those lawyers!

Cheers

High Look2Book Rates? Pegasus Says STOP!

As Pegasus follows Sabre down the outsource the data center route to HP/EDS, they are trying to find solutions to some of their more pressing issues. It is clear that they are getting creamed with lots of searches aka looks. Quoting CEO Mike Kistner in the Beat this week:

"These systems were built to manage a look-to-book ratio in the 10 to 50 looks for every revenue producing transaction, and we have seen it as high as a half million to one. It just can't sustain that," Kistner attested.

Well The Professor wants to take Kistner and everyone else who is moaning about it to task on this subject.

GET OVER IT!

Search is what it is. We as an industry have to find a way around this problem. While not belittling the issue - we have to figure out a solution to enabling search. As long as we treat this as a problem rather than a way to better serve the consumer - it will be the industry's Achilles Heel. But it can be and must be solved.

Frankly the problem sits in the architecture of the business and the commercial models around it. Constraining business by charging for looks has hardly served the GDS market well. So too will it be for Pegasus. The Search Genie is long out of the bottle. He must be served.

Tsk Tsk. Time to get real and SOLVE the problem not try and legislate it away

Cheers

20 November 2009

OMG Twts Decl in Oct!


First reported last week by Comscore, Twitter traffic is headed downwards. Now Nielsen is confirming the trend. However by some very big numbers:

According to data provided to eMarketer by Nielsen, traffic to Twitter.com was down a dramatic 27.8% between September and October 2009, falling to 18.9 million unique visitors.

Could this be the end of Twitter - hardly - but it does confirm that there is a solid pattern into technology usage.

Once abandoned technology is seldom if ever re-adopted. If you dont believe me come and have a look in my garage.

Interestingly Facebook continues to power ahead

Ouch!

What's Missing In All This? Reflections from the PhocusWright 2009 Conference

Typically a PhocusWright conference is looking forward to a future better world. Innovation etc etc.

We see people coming up with a compelling story but not necessarily a compelling history. One question Philip Wolf was constantly asking a question to which he never got a satisfactory answer - When/how/will a new brand/competitor emerge?

So in the Professor's inimitable style - I want to ask the question why this is the case or more importantly why not.

Over the next few days I shall be posting some insight on public and some private observations.

The show this year was a bit more upbeat than last year when the world was collapsing in total fear. The meteoric rise in Expedia's stock and now the market cap for PCLN being over $2Bn more than Expedia has shaken the traditional views. The market is as one analyst put it "more of a voting machine than a weighing machine"

It has now been effectively 15 years of innovation driven from the web. Perhaps now is a good time to reflect as clearly suppliers and almost everyone associated with the travel value chain are beginning to show.

But one of the stars of the Show has to be Marvin the Dinosaur. Not to mention a reference to dogs!

Cheers