Faites Vos Jeux M'sieurs, Dames!

Place your bets.

We have a pool going at the moment on the date of the 787 flight. Given that the invites have gone out from Boeing, rooms around Everett (particularly at the Hilton Garden Inn right there) are fully booked out for the nights of Dec 14 and 15 - you can be pretty sure that this is going to happen.

Just in case you are a betting person for to Paddy's for a quote.

And my nomination... December 21st. Will this be the first time the Professor is actually late rather than early?

Cheers

TSA Screening Document Gaff

The TSA announced that it had suspended 5 employees for the screw up in which the TSA's screening guidelines were posted on the web.

The story is now pretty much out there. But what I found interesting is that the TSA seems to have made no attempt to get the document withdrawn. I believe a simple request would have sufficed.

I was able to find copies of the document on multiple sites. However the total instances of the document source was actually very few. It remains the original server that did the unredacting (undeleting of the so called sensitive information) is still holding the document in plain view for all to see. And no I wont be posting a link because I dont wont to perpetuate the actual document. Besides I think I would be in violation of US Code:49 C.F.R. PARTS 15 AND 1520.

For more details on this go to Wikipedia.

The TSA says this is an out of date document. True! But then it remains the majority of the screening guidelines in place are contained within the document that was posted. The publication date was mid 2008 so it cannot be that old.

So our stupid airline tricks award this week goes to ....

The TSA. Some how I believe that the TSA will be a future winner as well.

Cheers

Easyjet V4,0 = V1.5?

Andy Harrison the Third leader for U2 is to leave in June 2010. Since taking over from Ray Websterin 2005 he has presided over the transition of the airline from pure startup to mature hybrid airline.

However the long running battle between Founder Stelios and first the board and more recently the senior management over expansion plans has probably contributed to what many will consider Andy's early exit.

So the critical question is who the new chap will be and what will this signify to the airline's future direction. Will the next leader go back to the future?

It would seem that the more conservative approach adopted by Harrison will be replaced by an aggressive market footprint expansion. With Ryanair having grown significantly since 2005, Easyjet has pursued profitability over pure growth. There is however an opportunity to grow the airline with over 100 planes on order over the next few years. Y2 has shown its ability to compete as a hybrid carrier and optimize yields better than its Irish larger "LCC Cousin".

I would probably think we are going to see a more aggressive stance to new markets with U2 and even the opportunity to export the business model to other markets.

Stay tuned

Cheers

No longer Bumping Along The Bottom

The US airline market has finally started to trend upwards.

ARC numbers confirm that that the recovery is under way. I want to caution that this is a slow recovery but it does seem people are getting back on the planes and flying. For the first time this year total ticket prices actually rose Y/Y,

BUT it is very fragile. For example in the run up to the holiday season - some flights particularly across the Atlantic started to trend upwards in yield. The airlines piled on the prices with average available prices on some routes exceeding the magic $1,000 mark. This collapsed with the 21 day advance purchase milestone passing the rates dropped radically.

The airlines and the intermediary community can start to rebuild.

The stock market has responded by boosting airline stocks. United for example has rised from lows in the $2 range to highs in the $9.It will go higher.

Christmas anyone?

Cheers

United's Plastic Order

I realize that United has gone through some hard times lately but really only buying plastic planes????

United Airlines is ordering both the A350XWB and the 787 to replace its 747 and 767 fleets respectively. Seriously this is a welcome fillip to the airline industry both for the airline side and the airframe side.

It is also an interesting order that signifies that United will be focused on flying the best plane for the job.

While the order flies in the face of conventional wisdom perhaps this will be the death knell of the single manufacturer model that seemed to be all pervasive in the US Market.

Congrats to the UA team for making the bold decision now.

Cheers

ATOL replacement Charge - All or Nothing

The Battle in the UK has raged for some time over the issue of when is a package not a package. it relates to the charges for ATOL protection administered by a legal quango called the CAA who also happens to be the Aviation Regulatory body for the United Kingdom.

With the recent win (now being appealed) by Travel Republic that effectively put a ring fence around dynamic packaging and enabled such dynamic products to be exempt the charge - the formal authorities are faced with a dilemma. What to do about customer protection and how to pay for it?

This seems logical enough. If the UK insists on having a scheme that protects consumers then surely it should implement a straight forward one size fits all protection scheme. Either flat fee or some scale based on the value of the product purchased.

Not so fast. The UK government already did that - its called the APD - the air passenger duty. A somewhat sneaky and clearly unpopular aviation head tax.

As the UK is an island and it is almost impossible to get from the country to another without some form of public transportation (although many have tried!) a comprehensive solution would seem to be the best way forward.

The UK Government will have to come clean and make it a once size fits all - recognizing the vast differences in pricing of the products. And that the APD issues need to be resolved. or they should pull both and put a commercial operation in place to replace ATOL.

There is going to be some head scratching in Whitehall

Cheers

New Travel Planning Tools

Amadeus won the Innovators Award at the recent PCW Innovation Summit. So I thought I would also look at some other possible invocations in planning.

I like Yapta's tools for sliding the nuance of travel request. I love Skyscanner's month display - even though they have hidden it where as it used to be so easy to get to.

The vast majority of the world doesn't have English as the native language. I can tell you that there are certain countries where the adoption of English as the second language is sorely tested. Thus the assumption that English is the universal lingua franca is flawed. So are there any tools to help this work?

For some time - Google has had the "free" service of Google translate. Now it has become mainstream. I didn't notice it until I started to surf from a foreign entry point (I have been in several markets where Google's home language is not English) and it works quite well so my friends tell me.

I did a search and came up with this little article from WebNews that points out the possible challenge that Bing Travel will have with Google's Translate features.

There is good news and bad here.

First the bad news. There will be a lot of these tools emerging in recent time. And this could not happen too soon as the consumer loses patience with the current version 1.0 travel planning tools. But there is little consistency and it still requires a lot of customer explicit interaction. What I would like to see is the more lean back type of solution as espoused by Google's translate. IE where the amount of work to be done is less and you dont have to overly involve yourself in the process. Further bad news is that the tools at the back are still sorely lacking.

The good news? These are coming. As soon as someone effectively cracks the L2B problem then we can see a better solution for everything.

Watch out people in the middle - if you dont wise up then you will be toast.

Perhaps this is why Amadeus is investing so much money in these new tools.

Cheers

Stupid Airline Trick #752

Like many Frequent Flyers - I spend a lot of time boarding aircraft and exiting aircraft. It is a somewhat stressful time (or maybe I am just a worry wart).

So this award goes to the whole industry for their arcane policies on boarding aircraft.

I have several examples so I am not going to pick on anyone in particular because I am just using these as examples of time and effort wasted.
EG
Air France's small boarding gates in Terminal F at CDG. Also the way they board. With special boarding pass readers where someone actually puts the paper into a self service machine.

Lufthansa's forcing you to use self service machines in smaller airports without any corresponding availability of trouble shooter people. Its hard enough for me as a FF - for a little old lady from Pasadena it could be quite intimidating.

Delta's in and out of the Red Coats at ATL. Some times they are there - many times they are not. When things get tough (both dynamically and procedurally) they seem to disappear.

Certain airports premium paid early boarding for LCC carriers. For example CIA in Rome where you pay then get on a bus ... along with the other passengers who didn't pay for it!

Air Asia's boarding herd process. I am sure someone is going to get killed at BKK.

And my favorite one above all - is the stupid boarding from back to front. All the studies show this is not the best way to board. So why do they still do it.

If you would like to trawl through this blog you can actually find a story I did on the most efficient form of boarding.

So for this reason the industry - airports and airlines get the Stupid Airline Trick award.

Cheers

Stupid Airline Trick #402

So as I am in Brazil this week - I thought I would open the file of the odd, the weird and the downright not quite sane Airline tricks.

Today's award goes to British Airways (why am I always picking on them???) for their Policy at LHR on arrivals lounge.

So I am Silver (thank you I qualified again) on BA's FF Program. As a verry frequent traveler - according to Tripit - I lead my network on the number of miles flown this year. (211,000) And I still have 3 long haul flights to go!!!!

So I chose my airlines carefully based predominately on time and location. Thus schedule and certain amenities are very important to me. I like BA because they provide a service on departure and arrival. They have been pretty innovative in the middle of the legacy carrier pack to customer services. T5 after nearly 2 years is a pretty good product - it still has some quirks. The Showers finally work properly and the service while somewhat indifferent is still a cut above the majority of US airlines.

At the moment I am working with a startup so I have to set an example of flying in the back of the bus when it works. So I was surprised to learn that the Executive Silver allows me the departure privileges BUT NOT ARRIVAL.

One of the keys to airline service is to provide a consistent level of service across the board. This shows how somewhat silly BA is for this policy. Oh BTW to make it even more bizarre - QF will allow you to do this on BA's coach ticket.

So much for the seamless service.

Now consider in context my post on BA's new seating policy and I think you get the picture.

Some customer czar is needed at BA to drive a consistent customer face.

If not then I will continue to hammer BA in this blog.

Cheers

British Airways's New (Paid) Seating Policy VERY COMPLICATED

I have written before that BA's new seating policy was way too complicated. So one of the Professors sent me the ACTUAL BA Travel Agent Guide for the new seating policy.

Brace yourself....

ITS TWENTY ONE PAGES LONG!!!!

What are they thinking? I like BA's services in general but they do tend to give me a lot of fodder for this blog because they tend to do some rather silly things.

This is another example of why things need to be simpler. If this is the official guide for the agent - imagine how complicated and confusing it could be for a consumer.

I am absolutely amazed at this. if you would like a copy - email me and I will send it privately to you.

This is a public service of the Professor Sabena Blog.

Cheers

So Who The Heck Is it?

Airbus snuck in (a little unsubtly) an unnounced order for 52 A320 class aircraft.

Speculation is rife.

So here is a short list of my candidates!

United
Ryanair
Delta

I probably have it wrong but its nice to purely speculate.
When its revealed who it is - then I will give you my reasons

BTW there is a caveat. I am assuming these are firm orders. Airbus tends to have a habit of having somewhat flexible orders.

Cheers

When Is A Guaranteed Fare Not One? Ask BA

During the past week we have seen what can happen when an iconic brand is severely damaged by a single event - intentional or not.

One of the integral parts of the Air Transportation system is that the contractual relationship between the airline and its customers is firm and hard.

The customer is required to perform and the agent in the middle (should there be one) is required to ensure enforcement of many complex and in quite a few cases seemingly arcane rules.

This is the basis of the passenger airline system. So it comes as a big surprise to find out that the product you buy as a consumer from the airline is not in fact guaranteed.

The case I am specifically pointing to is British Airways and the infamous $40 fare from the US to India. The details are not in dispute - but 2200 people bought the fare. Can you say Viral!!!!

BA canceled the bookings and offered a $300 compensation credit. Then the DOT stepped in. At which point BA upped the ante and provided additionally compensation for the impact of the canceled reservations with hotels cars etc.

if you would like to read BA's statement on the matter (its quite buried below the fold) click here. But do it quickly I doubt it will be there long.

When the DoT stepped in the Secretary was happy to report:"We are pleased to see that British Airways has accepted responsibility for the fares it published," Ray LaHood said.

I think that both BA and the DOT were fundamentally wrong here. BA for the initial mistake and not honouring its fares and the DOT for creating a precedent and effectively a get out of jail free card for any airline who doesn't like the fares they have contracted for. Chaps this is not good at a time when Congress is agitating for a Passenger Bill of Rights - you have collectively undermined the whole basis of the contract between any airline and the general public with the DOT's blessing.

So Go On Be A .... Tiger

A380 takes another hit. The Impact EK’s "Hiatus "

The largest customer of the Airbus Behemoth has announced it is taking a breather in A380 deliveries at the end of 2010.

Whether this is a function of the troubles in the Emirate of Dubai is to be seen – however there is one thing for sure – EK is now a pawn in a larger game. The reverberation of the collapse of the Dubai bubble is going to be felt in Toulouse and it is unlikely that Seattle will escape unharmed either.

There is more than the initial list of casualties in the current Dubai World troubles. The issue is going to be the pipeline of future commitments. Consider this – the UAE’s order book of aircraft has been predicated on cheap cash backed by AAA securities. With Dubai’s ability to continue to sustain such ratings it means that there is going to be a significant rise in the cost of money to EK and probably to other entities such as Dubai Aerospace and its various leasing arms. Looking at the disproportionate amount of orders outstanding it will have a long term impact.

Oh yes and another thing – because EK is a healthy business the chances are that it will become a pawn and possibly become collateral for some of the real estate debts is not an unrealistic possibility. In turn this could bring down EK's high value.

Hmm – seems there is going to be tough times all round. The GCC is going to reverberate with this for some time.

Is TripAdvisor getting sloppy?

Expedia’s TripAdvisor business has come in for a lot of stick lately. Some of which is deserved. Some of which – well it just goes with the territory. But I am going to chastise them for failing to do something that in my mind should be relatively easy and straightforward and thus provide a good service to their customers. I am speaking here about SeatGuru.com

As a frequent flyer (OK so I am not George Clooney) – I depend on the network of committed flyers for information. So I was actually applauding Expedia’s trip advisor when they purchased one of my favorite tools – seatguru.com.

However of late I have noticed that there has been little upgrading of the core content. Sure there is now a lot more digital junk on the site – I can hardly see the real content for the distracting and in my opinion thoroughly unnecessary “stuff” that surrounds it. In the past month I have flown or booked on G3, FR, New RG, AF, U2, AA, BA, DL and CO. in each case I have seen that the Seatguru seat maps frequently do not match either the aircraft or the airlines website version of the aircraft product. When doing the searches the discrepancy widens with some aircraft types not present etc etc.

In fairness to Seatguru – the plethora of seat configurations within each airline is astounding. The airlines are not good at standardizing their aircraft. However this is no excuse for Expedia’s subsidiary for getting sloppy and lazy and not giving more and better information to its users. At the very least the chaps at Seatguru should be on the ball working with the airlines to get valid seat maps out there. If I can see this then they can figure out how to get better quality and be useful to their audience.

In my most recent round of searches here are the statistics:

Total flight segments actually booked – 27 (9 plus 1 where I had to change and throw away a segment, 17 segments that I have to do before the end of the year). Total flight seat maps researched 58. Total mismatch in searches between airline seat maps and Seatguru – 24 (note this included absence of seat maps – 11. . Total mismatch between flights selected and actual aircraft configuration seats 8. Note I didn’t check on the airlines seat maps to actual configuration but I recall just one in which case it was a substituted equipment and I was upgraded (thank you Delta). As you can see these stats are not good.

Mind you I am not a normal flyer…. But these are representative of the airlines that I fly and I am sure that there are many other frustrated FFs out there who share the same opinion. Get with the Program Expedia. If not there will be a lot of people moving to other websites. And yes Virginia there are others. Like ExpertFlyer or seatplans.

Cheers

O'Leary to Retire.... Say It Ain't So!

Once again MOL is threatening to retire to the Irish Countryside if media reports are to be believed.

This time he sets a 3 year time threshold. It used to be less... but I digress.

The airline is now mature enough to survive without his positive/negative impact. However there is no doubt that MOL will be a figure in history in the LCC phenomenon.

If he does - what's the betting he stays on to create FR - Long haul

Cheers

Former Fulfilment Powerhouse TRX Downsizes

It started out life as OFS - Online Fulfillment Services. its first major customer was Expedia. On the first day of operation there were more managers than there were call center agents. Winning the Expedia (Microsoft) business for fulfillment was the launchpad.

It became TRX and had a pretty colourful life. Basically doing the messy part of the travel process for Expedia and the airlines.

It has now morphed into a much smaller organization. Not quite sure what its core mission is but it still is able to make a profit as its last quarter's results show. However how long it should remain public is a huge question. Parent BCD (who also owns the giant BCD Travel) needs to let the business continue in private hands rather than be distracted by the demands of the public scrutiny as a listed company.

As an Online pioneer - let them emerge without the baggage.

Best of luck to them

Cheers

EasyJet Boosts Yields on Ancillaries, Corporate Travel Increasing

Orange smiles all round it would seem.

Easyjet has been making some headway in the fight on driving yield on their flights. The average flight is yielding more and the Orange Crew seem to be beating the Blue/Yellow crew in this respect.

From the conference call 10 days ago - EZ was able to report the following:

Ancillaries are up 22%, excluding baggage charges.
Baggage charges are up a whopping 62.3%
Business travel accounts for just over 20% of revenue

It is probably the latter that needs to catch the eye of the other LCCs particularly Ryanair.

The take up of Biz Travel can be attributed (and has been) to the availability in the GDS. And this is an important lesson for any LCC. While the GDSs may be an anathema there is logic to providing a well established and simple tool which the TMCs and their corporate clients have access to.

I have made the point before that TMCs tend to be process driven and often at the expense of increased yield. EZ seems to be confirming this. On the heels of improved yields by Southwest as a result of their reappearance in the GDS,

Lest anyone thinks the Professor has gone soft - I firmly believe that the LCCs need to get in front of the standard sources of booking for the Corporate business. But the value of the GDS needs to be weighed carefully. Unless of course you take the extreme view like LH and start charging for access to content.

Yield can be improved by increasing the footprint in front of the TMCs and the Corporate Travel Depts. (CTD)s. Ignore this group at your peril.

Cheers

Results of the AA Distribution Survey

Well you have an interesting point of view! The absolute majority of you agreed that you believe its about time. Which outweighs the nay sayers 2:1, so thank you all for voting.

Here are the results.

Yes - it's about time

(53%)

No - what are they thinking

(25%)

Hmmm - Time will Tell

(17%)

I really cannot make up my mind now

(3%)

Cheers

Stupid Software Tricks - Quickbooks and Windows7

OK - like many people I use Quickbooks. I am not terribly keen to upgrade every year because it seems insane to have to upgrade for this type of service.

So BEWARE if you use Quickbooks - they do NOT support Windows 7 in ANY VERSION other than the latest versions 2010.

I think someone should sue Intuit for being so cavalier in this regard.

Cheers

Support the Open Cuba Initiative

At PhocusWright Last Week - Barney Harford the new CEO of Orbitz Worldwide devoted about a quarter or more of his speech in support of a passionate appeal for the opening of the Cuba market.

I am very happy to join the voices for an opening of US travel to Cuba and the removal of restrictions.

As a firm believer in the philosophy that travel broadens the mind and breaks down barriers between peoples - I am supporting this effort and ask you to also do the same

For more information please go to Open Cuba website.

Oh and by the way... in case you miss it - I would ignore the bit about agreeing to Orbitz terms and conditions ;-) - check the bottom of the snipp'd part of the Open Cuba website.

Cheers