19 December 2009

Norwegian Helicopter Induces Rock Fall

Really impressive skills at work here.

Down To The Wire - JAL's Dancing Partner

The stakes are getting higher - JAL needs a dancing partner. Does the blushing but somewhat older mature (potential) bride go with the newly enriched king or the prince of the neighboring land she has known for so long?

I have opined already on the two potentials - AA and now being assisted by TPG or Delta and the rest of the Skyteam players particularly Air France/KLM.

I think the nod goes to the Atlanta Good Old Boys rather than the Texas Mafia. My reasoning is not based on any insider knowledge other than an assessment of the situation. Delta has more to gain the American has to lose. Although at this point there is a big loser here. OneWorld as an alliance.

American rather weakly offered to up the ante last week with saying that JAL would be its only Far Eastern partner. That was rather stating the obvious since most of the rest are already taken by either Star or Skyteam. But significantly it doesn't improve matters for JAL who needs a lot of help and indeed new feed to boost its flagging fortunes. So in fact in my opinion this was a negative not a positive.

In the mean time - JAL's position continues to deteriorate. So the decision is getting more and more urgent.

This one is far from over but I do think that the choice is become a lot clearer.

Cheers

MOL Has Lunch - Occasionally

I missed the paper edition but knew it was coming - so this morning I logged on to the FT and read the Lunch with Michael O'Leary Column.

Sadly it doesn't reveal any insight into the chap. It is more of a rehash of a conversation that leaves you wishing you had a bit more than the Reporter's Bagel.

Anyway - have a read - its good toilet reading.

Cheers

The French Legal Reasoning System

So 2 decisions from the French legal system should leave people in the rest of the world scratching their heads. I love France and the French people. The French system of law stemming from Napoleon is incorporated into many different legal systems around the world including one could argue the USA. However these decisions will leave a lot of people wondering how they are able to operate.

Decision 1 – Let off the EADS and 17 of its current and former staffers and let them go scott free. A great piece can be found in the Financial Times:
Essentially the AMF (French Stock Market Regulator) found 7 of the group including former Co-CEO (and Frenchman) Noel Forgeard and recommended to the enforcement agency fines of 12 million Euros and various other enforcement actions. The final committee of mandarins however disagreed and on a very flimsy set of reasoning and excuses let everyone off. (mind you and an aside – this form of behavior is a mere pittance compared to the likes of some of the more recent US based fraudsters).

Decision 2 – Convict Google of Copyright infringement. According to various media reports a French court found Google Inc. guilty of copyright infringement for scanning books and putting extracts online without a publisher's consent. This will likely put a dent into the Web Giant’s plans for a library for all online. Google said it will comply for now while it appeals. The court awarded Euros 300K to a French Publisher and ordered the content removed.

So you watch yourself when you do business in France. It would appear they do tend to favor themselves. And to all Peoples around the world (including the French) Joyeux Noel!

18 December 2009

Amadeus Ancillary Revenue for Germany - Not till Q3 2010


I dont normally like to pick on the GDSs individually but my focus on Ancillary Revenues keeps uncovering issues where the legacy GDSs are dragging their feet.

Case in Point.

Amadeus

Here is a cut of 2 slides from a presentation of one Mr Thomas Gruber.

My issue is that it is touting delivery of the Ancillary Revenue services in Germany by 2010. THIRD QUARTER.

This is not soon enough. It is critically important that greater pressure on these aggressive deadlines is paid.

So Amadeus time to get on the program - please do it sooner so we can all benefit.

Cheers

The TNooz Elves

... have been busy preparing for the Holidays.

As part of this they/we are doing a predictions list. Click on the link to see them.

The Professor will be doing his Xmas show this week so click back often to see it - or sign up for the RSS feed

Cheers

Are You REALLY Ready For Merchandising?




So listen up boys and girls – in case you think that Merchandising is coming down the pipe sometime – maybe never… guess again. The days of speculation are over. UA alone is at a run rate of $5 Billion per year. American I would say is already higher. Thus the estimate by Ideaworks that this is a $10Billion business is already on the low side.

The Beat recently sad down with the honchos of AA’s New Direct Connect platform. One quote really caught my eye.

Cory Garner: “We have an XML direct connection in production today for use. We envision that an XML pipe will exist in parallel with legacy pipes for some period of time; it's just that the XML pipe is where that additional merchandizing capability will be. Our legacy pipes will not have that. We are not interested in putting development dollars in a standard that will be going away at some point. It will be just a matter of when GDSs cut over, when agencies cut over--at which point we will decide when the legacy technology is no longer necessary.”

Over the past few weeks I have been working directly with merchandising players both on the supply side and the intermediary side. We have developed solutions for merchandising on a wide variety of levels. These range from seats to bags to non-air. While there are still holes in the infrastructure – most of them are now covered. The missing pieces I am not waiting for – we will work those out.

What amazes me is that after so much talk about how important ancillary revenues are to airlines – how little engagement there has been in the process from the Intermediary side. I have been trying to analyze why this would be the case. I believe it is because they are “waiting” for the GDSs to come up with the answer. What I see in the statement above is that the airlines are clearly ahead of the GDSs. Now the GDSs must play catch up. If I look at the recent press on Amadeus’s efforts – one could be easily forced to interpret that they are slowing things down waiting for some magical industry standard. Again – I would say get over it.

Ancillary Revenue and its companion Merchandising are clear differentiators for an airline. Intermediaries better get on board with the airlines or there will be a period of difficulty when the two are not partners. As noted above – there are many people not waiting. If your teams are not heavily engaged in integrating merchandising functionality at your point of sale then you are already late. Smart players are already building tools for bundled and unbundled products. Early adopters will be winners. Late adopters will be road kill.

So fair warning – better get out there… Your number 1 New Year’s resolution better be to be ready for this. Smart players will figure out this is a great revenue opportunity with Airline product. Dumb people will be waiting again this time next year for the GDS to give them what they think will be easy. And even then – they wont know what to do with it….

Do you want seats with that?

Cheers

15 December 2009

Happy to Lose This Bet

So I owe a certain Doctor a dinner because the 787 finally took to the air today.

Boeing should be proud. At least it didn't misbehave as far as the viewing public is concerned.

Congrats to Boeing for getting the Dreamliner into the air.

Now the real hard part starts. Getting it certified for passenger services and ramping up production.

To the thousands of workers from Japan to Italy - today is your day.

Cheers

787 Flies

Travelport Retains Flight Centre... and....

Against a lot of odds - TP retained FCL in Australia. Or at least part of the business.

The odds were definitely against Travelport. Amadeus had mounted a very strong campaign as had Sabre. Heavyweights went a courting in Brisbane.

In the end it probably came down to the cost of transition rather than anything else. I suspect that the canny people at FCL knew that there were certain concessions that they wanted from Travelport to stay on Galileo. These would have included:

Full GDS incentive fees for all bookings
Access to LCC content
Powershopper entries at no charge

Etc etc

So congrats to the Travelport team (yes even Gordon went visiting) the impact of losing FCL in Oz would have been devastating to Travelport so it really was a life and death struggle.

Look for Flight Centre however to become more aggressive in its technology process. With the Datalex debacle now a matter for the courts rather than implementation - they need a new tech base to move forward. Could it be that Travelport agreed to fund some of that?

At the very least it evens the playing field and sends a clear signal to Madrid that Travelport will not be a pushover on any customer.

Interestingly there is a post on Gordo's blog:

"There’s no question that the GDSs need to up their game. But there also needs to be a well-thought through “technology framework” for the travel industry if we are to put the customer at the centre of everything we do."

I think what he misses is that the concept that the GDS is no longer at the centre of this triangle. While trying to hold out an olive branch to both sides of the GDS centric value chain - he misses the point. It is no longer a linear or even triangular world. It is a completely open world. Interestingly the only time the word Open appears in this blog is when in the context of Open Travel Alliance. Something that Travelport has not exactly been actively supportive of in cash and people time. I share his stated view that there is a need for standards. But I do not subscribe to those who are determined to subvert the process to their own ends as others have done before. Travelport has in the past been guilty of this either through neglect or active efforts.

Where I do agree with him is one of his final statements.

"The challenge for the GDS in the new distribution model I’m proposing is that we have to disrupt the status quo."

Let's see if he really does have the moxie to put that into reality. That also includes blowing up the segment fee model.

How will history judge this?

Cheers

14 December 2009

Open GDS

The Professor opines on open GDS systems on a Tnooz podcast - click

13 December 2009

Don't Want To Be A Tiger Anymore?

Well it seems that the first defection from the Tiger camp was Gatorade who "didn't renew". Now it seems that the one we all see so regularly (if you are a frequent flyer) in airports around the world - IE Accenture - has dropped Tiger from their campaign and will unveil shortly a new global ad campaign.

So I think this is to be expected. While everyone rushed to the golfer's defense, Accenture was noticeably quiet.

Moral of the story is... be careful what happens. It may come back to bite you. In that case you may have a Tiger in your tank.

(OK so its been a quiet news weekend)

Cheers

12 December 2009

Faites Vos Jeux M'sieurs, Dames!

Place your bets.

We have a pool going at the moment on the date of the 787 flight. Given that the invites have gone out from Boeing, rooms around Everett (particularly at the Hilton Garden Inn right there) are fully booked out for the nights of Dec 14 and 15 - you can be pretty sure that this is going to happen.

Just in case you are a betting person for to Paddy's for a quote.

And my nomination... December 21st. Will this be the first time the Professor is actually late rather than early?

Cheers

10 December 2009

TSA Screening Document Gaff

The TSA announced that it had suspended 5 employees for the screw up in which the TSA's screening guidelines were posted on the web.

The story is now pretty much out there. But what I found interesting is that the TSA seems to have made no attempt to get the document withdrawn. I believe a simple request would have sufficed.

I was able to find copies of the document on multiple sites. However the total instances of the document source was actually very few. It remains the original server that did the unredacting (undeleting of the so called sensitive information) is still holding the document in plain view for all to see. And no I wont be posting a link because I dont wont to perpetuate the actual document. Besides I think I would be in violation of US Code:49 C.F.R. PARTS 15 AND 1520.

For more details on this go to Wikipedia.

The TSA says this is an out of date document. True! But then it remains the majority of the screening guidelines in place are contained within the document that was posted. The publication date was mid 2008 so it cannot be that old.

So our stupid airline tricks award this week goes to ....

The TSA. Some how I believe that the TSA will be a future winner as well.

Cheers

Easyjet V4,0 = V1.5?

Andy Harrison the Third leader for U2 is to leave in June 2010. Since taking over from Ray Websterin 2005 he has presided over the transition of the airline from pure startup to mature hybrid airline.

However the long running battle between Founder Stelios and first the board and more recently the senior management over expansion plans has probably contributed to what many will consider Andy's early exit.

So the critical question is who the new chap will be and what will this signify to the airline's future direction. Will the next leader go back to the future?

It would seem that the more conservative approach adopted by Harrison will be replaced by an aggressive market footprint expansion. With Ryanair having grown significantly since 2005, Easyjet has pursued profitability over pure growth. There is however an opportunity to grow the airline with over 100 planes on order over the next few years. Y2 has shown its ability to compete as a hybrid carrier and optimize yields better than its Irish larger "LCC Cousin".

I would probably think we are going to see a more aggressive stance to new markets with U2 and even the opportunity to export the business model to other markets.

Stay tuned

Cheers

No longer Bumping Along The Bottom

The US airline market has finally started to trend upwards.

ARC numbers confirm that that the recovery is under way. I want to caution that this is a slow recovery but it does seem people are getting back on the planes and flying. For the first time this year total ticket prices actually rose Y/Y,

BUT it is very fragile. For example in the run up to the holiday season - some flights particularly across the Atlantic started to trend upwards in yield. The airlines piled on the prices with average available prices on some routes exceeding the magic $1,000 mark. This collapsed with the 21 day advance purchase milestone passing the rates dropped radically.

The airlines and the intermediary community can start to rebuild.

The stock market has responded by boosting airline stocks. United for example has rised from lows in the $2 range to highs in the $9.It will go higher.

Christmas anyone?

Cheers

08 December 2009

United's Plastic Order



I realize that United has gone through some hard times lately but really only buying plastic planes????

United Airlines is ordering both the A350XWB and the 787 to replace its 747 and 767 fleets respectively. Seriously this is a welcome fillip to the airline industry both for the airline side and the airframe side.

It is also an interesting order that signifies that United will be focused on flying the best plane for the job.

While the order flies in the face of conventional wisdom perhaps this will be the death knell of the single manufacturer model that seemed to be all pervasive in the US Market.

Congrats to the UA team for making the bold decision now.

Cheers

07 December 2009

ATOL replacement Charge - All or Nothing

The Battle in the UK has raged for some time over the issue of when is a package not a package. it relates to the charges for ATOL protection administered by a legal quango called the CAA who also happens to be the Aviation Regulatory body for the United Kingdom.

With the recent win (now being appealed) by Travel Republic that effectively put a ring fence around dynamic packaging and enabled such dynamic products to be exempt the charge - the formal authorities are faced with a dilemma. What to do about customer protection and how to pay for it?

This seems logical enough. If the UK insists on having a scheme that protects consumers then surely it should implement a straight forward one size fits all protection scheme. Either flat fee or some scale based on the value of the product purchased.

Not so fast. The UK government already did that - its called the APD - the air passenger duty. A somewhat sneaky and clearly unpopular aviation head tax.

As the UK is an island and it is almost impossible to get from the country to another without some form of public transportation (although many have tried!) a comprehensive solution would seem to be the best way forward.

The UK Government will have to come clean and make it a once size fits all - recognizing the vast differences in pricing of the products. And that the APD issues need to be resolved. or they should pull both and put a commercial operation in place to replace ATOL.

There is going to be some head scratching in Whitehall

Cheers

06 December 2009

New Travel Planning Tools

Amadeus won the Innovators Award at the recent PCW Innovation Summit. So I thought I would also look at some other possible invocations in planning.

I like Yapta's tools for sliding the nuance of travel request. I love Skyscanner's month display - even though they have hidden it where as it used to be so easy to get to.

The vast majority of the world doesn't have English as the native language. I can tell you that there are certain countries where the adoption of English as the second language is sorely tested. Thus the assumption that English is the universal lingua franca is flawed. So are there any tools to help this work?

For some time - Google has had the "free" service of Google translate. Now it has become mainstream. I didn't notice it until I started to surf from a foreign entry point (I have been in several markets where Google's home language is not English) and it works quite well so my friends tell me.

I did a search and came up with this little article from WebNews that points out the possible challenge that Bing Travel will have with Google's Translate features.

There is good news and bad here.

First the bad news. There will be a lot of these tools emerging in recent time. And this could not happen too soon as the consumer loses patience with the current version 1.0 travel planning tools. But there is little consistency and it still requires a lot of customer explicit interaction. What I would like to see is the more lean back type of solution as espoused by Google's translate. IE where the amount of work to be done is less and you dont have to overly involve yourself in the process. Further bad news is that the tools at the back are still sorely lacking.

The good news? These are coming. As soon as someone effectively cracks the L2B problem then we can see a better solution for everything.

Watch out people in the middle - if you dont wise up then you will be toast.

Perhaps this is why Amadeus is investing so much money in these new tools.

Cheers

Stupid Airline Trick #752

Like many Frequent Flyers - I spend a lot of time boarding aircraft and exiting aircraft. It is a somewhat stressful time (or maybe I am just a worry wart).

So this award goes to the whole industry for their arcane policies on boarding aircraft.

I have several examples so I am not going to pick on anyone in particular because I am just using these as examples of time and effort wasted.
EG
Air France's small boarding gates in Terminal F at CDG. Also the way they board. With special boarding pass readers where someone actually puts the paper into a self service machine.

Lufthansa's forcing you to use self service machines in smaller airports without any corresponding availability of trouble shooter people. Its hard enough for me as a FF - for a little old lady from Pasadena it could be quite intimidating.

Delta's in and out of the Red Coats at ATL. Some times they are there - many times they are not. When things get tough (both dynamically and procedurally) they seem to disappear.

Certain airports premium paid early boarding for LCC carriers. For example CIA in Rome where you pay then get on a bus ... along with the other passengers who didn't pay for it!

Air Asia's boarding herd process. I am sure someone is going to get killed at BKK.

And my favorite one above all - is the stupid boarding from back to front. All the studies show this is not the best way to board. So why do they still do it.

If you would like to trawl through this blog you can actually find a story I did on the most efficient form of boarding.

So for this reason the industry - airports and airlines get the Stupid Airline Trick award.

Cheers