Welcome to Travel Euphoria.
There is a lot of what has been called "Revenge"
travel. That will drive the initial highs particularly VFR. Once these bumps are out -
then the total traffic will fall back to a lower level than 2019 and that will
impact the entire travel ecosystem.
Let us dive into that hypothesis, clearly there are 2
constraints. Physical and Sentiment
Physical is what we have been focused during the pandemic.
Actual border restraints; quarantines, testing. These have taken the form of unilateral
(one country closing its borders), bilateral (choosing one country to
discriminate against) and overall multi-lateral (all travel must stop).
But we have NO CLUE about sentiment
Sentiment is usually discerned by asking people what they
feel. BUT we all know that respondents to surveys frequently lie and when the
rubber meets the road it is likely that potential travellers will be more reticent
than they will respond on a form.
There is however another factor, namely new learned
behaviour.
Human behaviour has memory that can be changed. New
behaviour replaces old behaviour? How long does that take?
According to some psychologists the norm should be about 21
days. One of the better studies states 66 Days, and even the most optimistic is
at the outside 254 days. Well, here we are in the pandemic at over 600 days, so
we have all learned to live without travel.
https://jamesclear.com/new-habit
Coming back to travel will require us to learn anew the joys
of travel.
We need to acknowledge that yes, we will return to some travel,
but the impact will be moderated horizontal and vertical. Overall, less people
will “do” travel due to both real and sentiment driven reasons. Those who do
will travel less frequently. Is it not odd that no one is talking about this?
“Travel will come back... 2022 will look like 2019” - Politely
this is BS or more accurately it is wishful thinking.
Let’s focus on Corporate Travel. What should companies do in
this situation? We already know that corporate budgets have been slashed and
some are even saying they will cut travel permanently. Even for the travel that
does take place – liability coverage costs will increase. And even at the
personal level, testing will add significant cost. Also, on the personal front
what happens if a parent gets trapped away from home? Once hearth and home are threatened
resistance behaviour increases exponentially.
Travel will need to start rebuilding trust. This is not
being addressed. Governments have proved themselves untrustworthy in many
regards during the pandemic. The travel industry will have to address this
themselves. Governments generally think that paying the airlines off was a good
enough fop to the industry.
We should all be concerned that we don't get wrapped up in the
euphoria of the moment. China was the
number 2 player in global travel in 2019. They are not going to be opening
their borders probably until 2023.
Here is an analysis from OAG of the impact of China’s
absence from the South East Asia Markets
Source OAG. © 20121
Many of us have either personal or near acquaintance travel
experiences. Those of us who have traveled (Author included), will think more
carefully about whether or not they will subject themselves to the new order
and risk. Some will just say – no thanks – I’ll just stay home. Euphoria will
fade fast, and reality of the new learned behaviour will become a permanent
aspect and friction of travel.
With acknowledgement to the fellow debaters of 2020 and 2021
Great WIT Debate teams who stimulated and participated in the creation of this
post.
The views expressed here are purely personal.
