15 January 2008

Europe Soars as USA Stalls - 1st Quarter Traffic Estimates

We are seeing some extraordinary growth numbers coming from the global growth of air traffic. Frankly we are having a hard time believing these numbers.

Global headline growth is predicted at nearly 10% in quarter 1 with a slackening off in the second quarter. This is all the more astonishing given that the US market is at most optimistic flat or continuing its slide since August 2007. In December the US market fell 0.6%.

We believe there will be a number of contradictory indicators over the next year. Today for example - and unjustified in logic - we saw UK based EasyJet's shares take a tumble. We have already seen a pull back in flights flown for the quarter from the US Network Carriers. Yet at the end of the quarter March 30th will see the largest expansion of Transatlantic flights in one day ever. The opening of LHR to OpenSkies will result in over 16 new Transatlantic flights from current non-resident airlines.

It will be a season to watch - just like American Idol that starts this week

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