Showing posts with label pricing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pricing. Show all posts

05 November 2019

The fallacy of guaranteed pricing

(Image from a recent ebay listing)


OK readers… its quiz time with your quizmaster the Professor (doing my world famous Bamber Gascoigne impersonation). Cue the music. 

Fingers on the buzzers…

Question 1: Please can I ask how many of you have ever invoked a price guarantee of the lowest fare on an airline?  Go on – I’ll wait. (Cue Jeopardy music). I am really interested to see if anyone was successful so far ZERO.

Question 2: We let’s see how many of you have actually tried? Hmmm same thing.
Well I have tried many times. And always the same. Sorry you didn't meet the requirements of the guarantee. Fortunately for me – I am in North America where I can legally cancel within 24 hours.

Question 3: How many airlines guarantee their priced availability displays. Time’s up?
Yes the correct answer is ZERO. So far I have not found one airline willing to guarantee their offers.

At the end of round one – everyone has scored zero.

The arcane complexity of airline pricing has evolved over the years into making a number of people a lot of money. (Consider ITA software). Perhaps the biggest conundrum is that airlines have succeeded in one key metric. Consumer confusion. No one has any idea of which price is the right one especially since no one guarantees the price. In most markets (the USA is somewhat of an exception) the percentage of offers that are actually purchasable is somewhat astounding at how low a figure. US Fares tend to be a lot more reliable as they are simpler in point to point products. On any international system the differentials in pricing is quite astounding. I have recently reviewed a number of prices on Asia (TC3) city pairs. Here are some common observations:

  • Price granularity is actually quite rare – so you cannot see what the breakdown is of pricing.
  • Prices change frequently
  • Pricing accuracy is often obfuscated by the fact that few buy the rack price cheapest.
  • Taxes are frequently invoked in out of order sequences (lord knows how the tax man can audit that)
  • The differentiation of what constitutes a “tax” and what constitutes a “fee” is always obfuscated.
  • Etc etc

Having worked in pricing and fares for many years I remain unsurprised at the extent to which vendors (particularly OTAs and other intermediaries) do not follow the prescribed rules. The fact is that the rules are really unreliable. I have written before on how airlines also permit price “guarantees” which can claim to be lowest when the prices differ. While frequently these variations are within a few cents/pence in reality the differences in pricing are all over the shop. And we wonder why consumers have very low confidence in airline prices.

Dynamic pricing will change all that right? Probably not – I would not hold your breath because I doubt airlines will actually guarantee any of the offers despite the fact that they are able. I encourage you to go back and read some of my previous blog entries just go to the search bar and enter the word << Pricing >>.

NDC can make this better but I sincerely doubt that it will do so in the short term.

It is high time that we see that someone will provide some sanity to the world of airline pricing if we are going to bring trust back to the airline brands. Will that happen?

Don’t hold your breath. And I won’t be able to hurry you, or the monkey … or them (yes you know who you are).




23 September 2008

The State of Airfares - Confusion Reigns Supreme

Air Travel is supposed to be one of the purest forms of market that exists anywhere. As such it should be driven by supply and demand - rising and falling accordingly.

Currently the fall in demand is acute - the fall in capacity has been even greater but so far we are not seeing corresponding rises in yield across the board.

We have therefore a number of factors. On the demand side clearly demand is falling - we believe that corporate/business demand is falling more rapidly. Willie Walsh has said that premium traffic is falling for BA faster than it expected. The meltdown in the US markets and the spreading virus has curtailed demand in many areas of high yielding business traffic. Those Wall Street and City types really like to travel in the front cabin. Well that business is WAY off. Generally the economy is falling so travel is being curtailed. I have always maintained that the amount of VFR traffic (Visiting Friends and Relatives) is far less discretionary than other forms. It also makes up a sizable portion of the US market and is not reported separately (unlike Europe and Asia/Pac where it is a recognized traveling segment.

Capacity domestically in the US market has been slashed but not enough. Capacity has been switched to International sectors which in turn has boosted capacity into a weak market particularly UK-USA as a result of Open Skies. One point of Domestic capacity shifted results in 8+ points if international capacity increase. As a result we are seeing drops in key markets. Topaz who tracks this sort of thing reports spot market yields off - such as Paris NYC. London-NYC etc.

Finally the impact of fees or ancillary revenue charges - inconsistent application of taxes (lets call this obfuscation) has resulted confusion on the part of the consumer who is not happy. Resulting in moving to more direct access.

We foresee a significant amount of price volatility for the next few months with increased "fire" sales and last minute revenue generating events. Peak travel times will actually see an increase in rates but off peak will plummet in pricing.

All in all - a very confused situation before Christmas. After the turn of the year - we will see a significant amount of breath holding and lack of forward commitment in advance bookings. This will take many months to sort itself out before easy and clear patterns emerge. Rest assured on the supply and intermediary side we are all in for a bit of a wild ride.

Cheers