These rumours about Google/Opodo are great fun.

Unlikely but fun.

Its the weekend - pretty much wherever you are - so how about a nice rambling discourse on Opodo.

I remember back a couple of years when writing about Google getting into travel was constantly denied by Google. Remember we used to go on about Troogle? Then we heard (on reasonable reporting) that Google were looking to buy Farecast (prior to Microsoft buying them and incorporating that service into Bing). Ok that never happened but now we have Google / ITA. Big, and clearly attracting a lot of interest, angst and unwanted attention.

But something has been bugging me about these deals for a while. Look Farecast isn't ITA. While both on the surface may look like they give great flight data they both come from different sides of the equation. Farecast were always on the side of the consumer - they said don't buy now, buy later (upsetting airlines in the process). ITA, while not exactly the darling of the wider travel industry, seem much more on the industry side than, say, TripAdvisor (who appear to pretty much help consumers exclusively). For example see just how many airlines and meta-search sites are powered by ITA software.

So whatever Google are doing it seems they are focused on "helping" the industry. This is understandable - they could deliver a mediocre consumer proposition (the competitors are good, but don't own travel consumer traffic so are disadvantaged). A mediocre consumer proposition owning "free" travel focused web traffic would deliver a great revenue. No need for doing something exceptional or game changing. Perhaps then some of the pundits who say that Google wont need to bring innovation to the Travel process may be onto something.

As we have seen from large scale players such as Apple and it's iPhone business model - the real darlings of the stock market are those with multiple bites of the revenue stream. Let's look at Google and travel then.

On the media model the players/customers Google would really care about are the companies buying the adverts. On the transactional model (e.g. buying Opodo) they do need to care about consumers quite a lot more. This is something that is unlikely because its an operational business. However it's the consumers would deliver the revenue.

Of course in reality consumers have the money and wear the trousers. Long term, if Google slightly would - naturally - be expected to favour the trade (whatever they say this would happen in my opinion because Googlepus has to "game" the sellers of travel to optimize its revenue) then this leaves a tiny crack for a new entrant to take the pure consumer perspective. Maybe this could be Bing, with their consumer friendly Farecast heritage, could be that company. But that would result in another clash of titanic elephants. Not known for being swift on their feet.

Enough of this talk about elephants. Instead let's consider what would happen if the mega pachyderm Googleplex took the same approach to the travel sector as for example they have taken to other areas they have recently acquired. Instead of these multi-gazillion dollar transactions howabout building a new industry from ten plus startups who either take the consumer perspective or are part of the supply jigsaw. We know Google are running "invite only" events for some of these these travel startups so Big Brother is aware who they are (although I am personally slightly miffed that my invitation went missing the post, apparently!)

The question stands. Either Google go 100% taking the consumer perspective (aggressively helping consumers at the cost of their supplier relationships) or they go the media model, trade helping, route. The nuances of doing both are too tricky for a non-travel specialist.

If Google don't go the consumer backing route then this leaves a hole. It might be a tiny hole but it will be one that as I noted above Bing, with their Farecast system (very consumer oriented) plus many startups can attack them on. Taking this point of view, actually buying Opopo (revenue generated by consumers) may not be quite such a mad idea after all.

OK - confused? Don't be... Google isn't going to buy Opodo. That is just wishful thinking by Amadeus. (or a PR agency trying to build some value for the purchase of Opodo which is such a dead duck).

But stranger things have happened.

Amadeus Retreating From Competing With Its Customers - Bye Bye Opodo?

Hot on the heels of a story I did last month on Sabre pulling out of non-core businesses and ending the practice of competing with its customers now comes word that Amadeus is doing something akin.

So either Amadeus is finally giving up on its poor orphan child that it inherited from its some times owners (big EU airlines) or its decided that Opodo needs a new home. At the least Amadeus might start to look more attractive to the big OTAs. It has recently beefed up its search offerings (Masterpricer et al).

Reports have been circulating for a few weeks of a "major OTA" on the block. Actually Opodo doesn't quite fit those shoes. Since the story is now out - I can comment on it.

Opodo has never quite lived up to its hype. It's books were made to look pretty good (ie that they were not losing money) in recent years - but it is not a business that will set the world on fire. Rather like its counterpart in Asia - Zuji that is a little more successful comparatively speaking.

The US based similar business - Orbitz - burst on the scene and became a monster success initially. It was hived off by the airlines (who started it under the code name of T2 after a popular Consulting firm of a similar name - or a movie that came out around that time with a then future Governor as its lead actor). It landed in the Blackstone stable of businesses. It seems to be getting a little more healthy under new CEO (and ex-Expedia man) Barney Harford.

Now that Amadeus has to submit to the discipline of the markets - it is taking a hard look at its stable of disparate businesses and clearly deciding that some of them belong elsewhere.

So probably time to put this dog out the door. Will Travelport now be looking to do the same on their side and dump their holding in Orbitz and some other products/services.

Hey this new found religion might actually be good for the market.

Cheers

Champagne all round boys and girls... Opodo makes a profit

It may seem meagre to other combatants but 7 years after its first launch - Opodo has FINALLY MADE A PROFIT.

Opodo was formed in 2000 by nine of Europe’s leading airlines. Its publicly stated two main objectives were to become a low cost distribution channel for travel products, and to become a leading player in the (then) increasingly lucrative online travel market. Opodo launched its first site, www.opodo.de, in Germany in November, 2001. This was soon followed by the launches of the United Kingdom site, www.opodo.uk, in January, 2002, and the French site, www.opodo.fr, later that year in April. Opodo currently has been launched in, and operates in ten different countries. These include Germany, Austria, the United Kingdom, Spain, France (under 3 brands), Italy, and Scandinavia under the Travellink Brand (Finland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway). The website lists 8o European airlines as co-owners with Amadeus. BA, AF/KL, EI, LH, AZ, OS, IB, FI.

Well done to the team in Hammermith. Too bad about the investment write off - but Amadeus probably needs that these days to counter its rapidly rising profits.