17 November 2007

Musings from PhocusWright 2007 - The Long Tail

Perhaps a kinder gentler PCW this year at the Omni Resort in Orlando.

Sure there was the usual Philipalooza extravaganza and some nice touches - as usual a great show. BUT the bigger news perhaps is the maturity of the market if this is reflected by the attendees and the content.

On Center Stage - the usual suspects. Michelle Peluso was back in great form now that Sabre is private (under TPG). Lots of buzz on long tail businesses which perhaps suggests that there is game over in the head of the market.

So stands out?

The airlines - conspicuous by their absence. The (what we call) Reverse Yield Management sites - Farecast et al, put on a great panel.
Google - is now the 8000 lb gorilla and becomes the center point of almost every conversation.
Social Media is real, is impactful and is a key ingredient in Travel Distribution now. BTW great party they threw!
OTAs have matured - now it’s about the consumer. Kudos to Michelle for pushing the consumer experience. I have a bet with Rod Cuthbert of Viator as to which of the big 2 will be in the ascendency in 2009. I am backing Travelocity because of Michelle. He is taking the safe way with Expedia.
Investment - LOTS of news here. Hudson Crossing (in whom PCW's Chair has a stake) was out in force. The Libra party had to transfer back to the bar for waking up the golfing neighbors on their floor. Lots of people both seeking and offering capital assistance. Chimney Rock is the new player here; finally an investment bank with some industry professionals. Good to see my old friends Mims Wright and Susan Black have re-united there.
Shock and Horror with the sell out by Libgo to Ozzies Flight Center. Heads will role.
Travelport dropped the hammer and is letting over 1100 people go. Lots of new consultants on the street in the coming months. Flo will be acting CMO and commuting to London. Come May she will be headed to the beach and good for her.

A kinder gentler Philip this year. I understand attendance was down but at those rates phew!!!!
The resort clearly had logistical issues running out of restaurant food on Wednesday night. But all in all another good effort. Next year we can expect that every attendee will be a mobile walking electronic billboard with Philip selling prime time ads on certain people. Terry Jones for example will have premium rates more akin to the back page of the New York Times.

So till next year

Cheers!

Timothy

12 November 2007

New ECAC GDS/CRS Rules due this week. Industry Response

The new ECAC rules are due to be announced this week. There is much anticipation of the content. In advance of this - various travel groups have come together to create a manifesto of sorts. Here is the entire press release from one of the parties - the BTC:

PRESS STATEMENT
Travel Groups Transmit Results of Customer Referendum on Reservation System Rules
Consumer choice in air and rail travel at risk
Brussels, Belgium, 13 November 2007--Europe’s business travel industry today transmitted the results of a Customer Referendum to European Commission Vice-President Jacques Barrot concerning revisions to the “Code of Conduct,” rules that govern the computerized reservations system (CRS) industry in Europe. The Referendum is signed by International Airline Passengers’ Association, Advantage Focus Partnership, Belgium Association of Travel Management, Business Travel Coalition, Finnish Business Travel Association, Institute of Travel Management, Scottish Passenger Agents’ Association and Travel Management Alliance. These organizations represent thousands of corporations and millions of customers of the air and rail transportation system in Europe.
The Code has protected consumers against well-documented, anti-competitive behavior in the airline and travel distribution marketplaces when airlines own even a small percentage of a CRS. The Code currently applies to airlines that are considered “Parent Carriers” by virtue of either an ownership stake in or effective control of a CRS. History has proven that even a small percentage of airline ownership in a CRS provides an irresistible economic incentive for abuse. These abuses include privileging the “family-owned” CRS with exclusive and timely-loaded airfare content, practices that eliminate healthy CRS competition and solidify dangerous airline-owner dominance. Airline ownership of CRSs provides further incentives to undermine comparison shopping between air and rail travel options. Without applicable rules, consumers throughout Europe would be denied access to all choices and end up paying higher prices for travel .
As evidenced by numerous Commission communications, and its indifference to the repeated urging of a vast assemblage of concerned industry stakeholders for timely clarification, the Commission appears intent on redefining what constitutes a Parent Carrier and rendering the ownership test obsolete. This market-distorting development would turn the regulatory clock back 20 years before the Code was in effect and unsuspecting consumers paid supra premium prices for air travel, when for example, airfare offerings were manipulated by CRS owning airlines to hide competitors’ lower prices. Scores of millions of European consumers and hundreds of thousands of small and medium size enterprises who use smaller travel agencies are particularly vulnerable. (See analysis at http://tinyurl.com/2jaewc)
The Customer Referendum, first introduced during a Customer Hearing in Brussels on 20 September 2007, resulted in a call for (1) a threshold of a 5% ownership stake by an airline in a CRS for the purpose of establishing the status of Parent Carrier; (2) confirmation by the Commission that Air France, Iberia and Lufthansa are presently Parent Carriers of Amadeus; and (3) affirmation that the status of Air France, Iberia and Lufthansa as Parent Carriers of Amadeus shall be subjected to written and oral industry consultation prior to any proposed change. The Referendum follows.
EU CRS CUSTOMER REFERENDUM
WHEREAS, airline ownership of Computer Reservation Systems is the raison d’etre for adopting and maintaining a CRS Code of Conduct; and
WHEREAS, the undersigned travel industry associations have firmly committed themselves to achieving reasonable reform of the existing EC CRS Code of Conduct, while maintaining in force those core protections that effectively protect consumers from abusive conduct that has historically and inevitably resulted from even small levels of airline ownership of CRSs; and
WHEREAS, serious and ongoing concerns remain that the European Commission is improperly and unilaterally undermining airline “ownership” as an independent means of conferring “parent carrier” status under the Code; and
WHEREAS, the European Commission’s reinterpretation of “parent carrier” criteria would dramatically break with long-settled precedent, contravene industry expectations and ignore the plain language of the Code without properly submitting the change to industry participants for consultation; and
WHEREAS, CRS airline ownership continues to present a real world problem the Code must address in that Amadeus, Europe’s largest CRS, continues be over 46% owned by Air France, Iberia and Lufthansa -- major European airlines that have both the means and the incentive to abuse this ownership position in both the aviation and the distribution markets in the absence of core protections;
THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED THAT:
1.The revised Code of Conduct shall contain a recital that shall unambiguously state, “Whereas, air carriers which own or effectively control a CRS system, alone or jointly, can derive unfair advantages in the marketplace from such a position.” The revised Code of Conduct shall include a definition of “parent carrier” that will include an airline ownership threshold of five percent (5%) of the equity, held directly or indirectly, in a CRS company; and
2. The European Commission shall confirm in writing that Air France, Iberia and Lufthansa are presently “parent carriers” of Amadeus under the CRS Code of Conduct; and
3. The status of Air France, Iberia and Lufthansa as parent carriers of Amadeus shall be subjected to written and oral industry consultation prior to any proposed change; in addition, such consultation shall consider all inappropriate influencing factors throughout the distribution chain; and
4.The European Commission in any revised Code of Conduct shall retain the following core protections: mandatory participation and the bans against commission tying, display bias, and functionality discrimination; and
5. All rules other than the core protections shall be eliminated from the revised CRS Code of Conduct; however, the prerequisite for this elimination are the Commission’s enactment of Resolutions 1, 2, 3 and 4 above.
We the undersigned commit ourselves to this Referendum and urge the European Commission to enact them and thereby seize this historic opportunity to achieve Better Regulation in travel distribution.
International Airline Passengers’ Association - http://www.iapa.com/index.cfm/travel/home.welcomeAdvantage Focus Partnership - http://www.sunwaystravel.co.uk/focus-partnership.aspBelgium Association of Travel Management - http://www.batm.be/Business Travel Coalition - http://businesstravelcoalition.com/Finnish Business Travel Association - http://www.fbta.net/Institute of Travel Management - http://www.itm.org.uk/Scottish Passenger Agents’ Association - http://www.spaa.org/Travel Management Alliance - http://www.tmallc.com/new/
CONTACT: Kevin Mitchell 610.341.1850 editor@btcnewswire.com

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New ECAC GDS/CRS Rules due this week. Industry Response

The new ECAC rules are due to be announced this week. There is much anticipation of the content. In advance of this - various travel groups have come together to create a manifesto of sorts. Here is the entire press release from one of the parties - the BTC:

PRESS STATEMENT
Travel Groups Transmit Results of Customer Referendum on Reservation System Rules
Consumer choice in air and rail travel at risk
Brussels, Belgium, 13 November 2007--Europe’s business travel industry today transmitted the results of a Customer Referendum to European Commission Vice-President Jacques Barrot concerning revisions to the “Code of Conduct,” rules that govern the computerized reservations system (CRS) industry in Europe. The Referendum is signed by International Airline Passengers’ Association, Advantage Focus Partnership, Belgium Association of Travel Management, Business Travel Coalition, Finnish Business Travel Association, Institute of Travel Management, Scottish Passenger Agents’ Association and Travel Management Alliance. These organizations represent thousands of corporations and millions of customers of the air and rail transportation system in Europe.
The Code has protected consumers against well-documented, anti-competitive behavior in the airline and travel distribution marketplaces when airlines own even a small percentage of a CRS. The Code currently applies to airlines that are considered “Parent Carriers” by virtue of either an ownership stake in or effective control of a CRS. History has proven that even a small percentage of airline ownership in a CRS provides an irresistible economic incentive for abuse. These abuses include privileging the “family-owned” CRS with exclusive and timely-loaded airfare content, practices that eliminate healthy CRS competition and solidify dangerous airline-owner dominance. Airline ownership of CRSs provides further incentives to undermine comparison shopping between air and rail travel options. Without applicable rules, consumers throughout Europe would be denied access to all choices and end up paying higher prices for travel .
As evidenced by numerous Commission communications, and its indifference to the repeated urging of a vast assemblage of concerned industry stakeholders for timely clarification, the Commission appears intent on redefining what constitutes a Parent Carrier and rendering the ownership test obsolete. This market-distorting development would turn the regulatory clock back 20 years before the Code was in effect and unsuspecting consumers paid supra premium prices for air travel, when for example, airfare offerings were manipulated by CRS owning airlines to hide competitors’ lower prices. Scores of millions of European consumers and hundreds of thousands of small and medium size enterprises who use smaller travel agencies are particularly vulnerable. (See analysis at http://tinyurl.com/2jaewc)
The Customer Referendum, first introduced during a Customer Hearing in Brussels on 20 September 2007, resulted in a call for (1) a threshold of a 5% ownership stake by an airline in a CRS for the purpose of establishing the status of Parent Carrier; (2) confirmation by the Commission that Air France, Iberia and Lufthansa are presently Parent Carriers of Amadeus; and (3) affirmation that the status of Air France, Iberia and Lufthansa as Parent Carriers of Amadeus shall be subjected to written and oral industry consultation prior to any proposed change. The Referendum follows.
EU CRS CUSTOMER REFERENDUM
WHEREAS, airline ownership of Computer Reservation Systems is the raison d’etre for adopting and maintaining a CRS Code of Conduct; and
WHEREAS, the undersigned travel industry associations have firmly committed themselves to achieving reasonable reform of the existing EC CRS Code of Conduct, while maintaining in force those core protections that effectively protect consumers from abusive conduct that has historically and inevitably resulted from even small levels of airline ownership of CRSs; and
WHEREAS, serious and ongoing concerns remain that the European Commission is improperly and unilaterally undermining airline “ownership” as an independent means of conferring “parent carrier” status under the Code; and
WHEREAS, the European Commission’s reinterpretation of “parent carrier” criteria would dramatically break with long-settled precedent, contravene industry expectations and ignore the plain language of the Code without properly submitting the change to industry participants for consultation; and
WHEREAS, CRS airline ownership continues to present a real world problem the Code must address in that Amadeus, Europe’s largest CRS, continues be over 46% owned by Air France, Iberia and Lufthansa -- major European airlines that have both the means and the incentive to abuse this ownership position in both the aviation and the distribution markets in the absence of core protections;
THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED THAT:
1.The revised Code of Conduct shall contain a recital that shall unambiguously state, “Whereas, air carriers which own or effectively control a CRS system, alone or jointly, can derive unfair advantages in the marketplace from such a position.” The revised Code of Conduct shall include a definition of “parent carrier” that will include an airline ownership threshold of five percent (5%) of the equity, held directly or indirectly, in a CRS company; and
2. The European Commission shall confirm in writing that Air France, Iberia and Lufthansa are presently “parent carriers” of Amadeus under the CRS Code of Conduct; and
3. The status of Air France, Iberia and Lufthansa as parent carriers of Amadeus shall be subjected to written and oral industry consultation prior to any proposed change; in addition, such consultation shall consider all inappropriate influencing factors throughout the distribution chain; and
4.The European Commission in any revised Code of Conduct shall retain the following core protections: mandatory participation and the bans against commission tying, display bias, and functionality discrimination; and
5. All rules other than the core protections shall be eliminated from the revised CRS Code of Conduct; however, the prerequisite for this elimination are the Commission’s enactment of Resolutions 1, 2, 3 and 4 above.
We the undersigned commit ourselves to this Referendum and urge the European Commission to enact them and thereby seize this historic opportunity to achieve Better Regulation in travel distribution.
International Airline Passengers’ Association - http://www.iapa.com/index.cfm/travel/home.welcomeAdvantage Focus Partnership - http://www.sunwaystravel.co.uk/focus-partnership.aspBelgium Association of Travel Management - http://www.batm.be/Business Travel Coalition - http://businesstravelcoalition.com/Finnish Business Travel Association - http://www.fbta.net/Institute of Travel Management - http://www.itm.org.uk/Scottish Passenger Agents’ Association - http://www.spaa.org/Travel Management Alliance - http://www.tmallc.com/new/
CONTACT: Kevin Mitchell 610.341.1850 editor@btcnewswire.com

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11 November 2007

Diller's Empire starts to unravel, Marriage to Malone on the rocks?

In a story initially put out by the WSJ and then syndicated and picked up by such papers as the Seattle Times - titled:

Can This Marriage Be Saved?

Barry Diller and John Malone made a fortune
together. Now they may be headed for a split

There has been quite a lot of speculation about how the House that Diller built has lost much of its luster. Now it could be that Barry and John are going to split. John wants out and the two could be said to be negotiating a split.

Stay tuned but the likely outcome is a lot more pruning of the tree and someone's ego is going to get bruised.

Even as Expedia powers ahead with good results - the yield declines are not making the stock rise much despite the massive buy backs. True it is up nearly 100% on the full 12 months. We shall see....


Libgo sells itself cheaply. $149 million to Flight Centre

One the largest and most venerable of US Travel institutions has been sold to the Australian mega chain - FlightCentre. First reported at Travel Weekly AU.

Itself a subject of a protracted ownership battle, TW - OZ is reporting that FlightCentre has been able to pick up both Liberty Travel (122 offices primarily in the NE USA) plus the Gogo Tours operation (22 centers around the USA) fr a very low $149 million.

This acquistion vaults FC into the top tier of US operations and the combined organization comes in at Number 10 of the largest US Travel outlets.

CanadaeConnect Conference YVR Nov 7-9

I have just returned from this excellent conference. I moderated a panel on Evolution vs Revolution. For the first time in many years, I was able to catch up directly with what is going on in the great white north. I can assure you that innovation is alive and well up there. http://www.canadaeconnect.com/

A couple of brief highlights:

Canada really does have a good handle on the Public Private Partnership model in Tourism. The Team at Tourism Canada are pushing the envelope in getting the whole market involved. Check out http://www.canada.travel/

Canada is still lagging behind the US market in adoption of online but they are tracking nicely and this is not a bad thing.

The USA could take a large leaf out of the Canada Tourism playbook. Even the "joining of forces" of TIA and TBR is not going to be enough to pull this together. As Canada has shown a strong combination of direct Government funding, focused and sane visitor policies, industry participation and standards is a must not a goal.

A strong currency does not help your tourism quotient. The rise of the Looney is going to hurt the travelers from south of the border. Increased security restraints - mostly on the US side make travel (particularly by Road) a less than positive experience.

Jens and his team over at Tourism Canada should be very proud of their work in putting on one of the best shows in Travel and Tourism in a long time. Great Content, well manage show and 300 very engaged attendees made it work well. If you get the chance to go next year - I recommend it highly.