08 December 2008

The Kipper Season and Gardening Leave. Side Effects of the Recession

So has the Professor truly lost it? What the heck is the Kipper Season. Well until today I had never hear of it. I was in a London Taxi and in my unceasing efforts to find out how people are dealing with the crisis, I asked him how things were. He said that Christmas would be OK down a little but from January 6th it would be "the Kipper Season". Racing home to Wikipedia, I discovered this is a term by London traders and taxi drivers especially to describe Lean Times. That is exactly what is happening now. UK shops and businesses are really feeling the effects. The Pubs around the UK have seen their traffic off by as much as 50% in some cases may be even more. The Smoking Ban has truly affected the social fabric of the pubs. Couple this with a 4x differential in the cost of a pint from Tescos vs that at your local and - well you get the picture.

Turning to my friends in "The City" (aka the Square Mile or the City of London's financial community, I was shocked to hear that many have been sent home on "Gardening Leave". This is a term I know well. It means while the figure out what to do with you - they send you home... to garden. Hence the term.

Life in the UK is going to be pretty tough in the coming months. And some concrete issues...

One trend you can bank on is that 2009 Summer Season will be a late booking one. With the Pound down significantly against both the Dollar and the Euro - the Brits (along with Germans - the significant proportion of EU sourced Travel) will be waiting before they spend their money on their summer holidays. This will result in some nail biting times for the Holiday Sellers. Those who rely on the cash flow will be very hard pressed. Everyone is feeling it. There are no exceptions.

This recession will bite hard and long.

Cheers - I am off to drown my sorrows. More from Germany later this week.

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