07 April 2009

The Prize For Bravery Goes to ANA....... First to Fly 787s

In a bid to outdo its competition - ANA has managed to steel a march on both its local competition and probably many different players as well. ANA is braving the flack and commercial risks by agreeing to take most of the first 11 aircraft off the line. I clearly don't think this is hubris and it could turn out to be a very smart move. Given the amount of compensation that Boeing is going to have to pay everyone for the late deliveries - this could also actually increase the cost for Boeing.

Of course we don't know at the moment what the likely performance is of the initial aircraft whether they will be -8s or -3s. I suspect they will be -8s.

There are a few others mixed in. DL has pushed its first aircraft out and ceded a delivery spot to AI. Co I think gets ship #7. It also looks like most of these will be new builds rather than refurbs. Boeing will quietly use the first few aircraft as demonstrators or have an extensive "test" fleet program which will likely not see the initial aircraft going back into commercial operation - at least for quite some time.

it also means that the ramp up delivery schedule is going to be pretty light. Punters are betting on a Pre June 30th (I am not saying which year) first flight. Personally I am still thinking its going to slip still into Q3 (or is that actually Q8 ;-)

An interesting aside here is to consider the dynamics of the order books in Japan. Airbus has been pinning a lot on ANA being the Japanese customer for the A380. As they operating experience with an Airbus type. With JAL's commercials now a lot more stable - this may create on opportunity for Super Salesman John to persuade JAL to take the Airbus jumbo. We shall see.


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