14 June 2009

Speculating On The Ryanair Order

So Ryanair is getting a lot of interest in its potential order for up to 300 Aircraft.

Most people poo poo Michael O'Leary as a crank. He frequently floats ideas just for effect. 1 Pound Toilets anyone?

This time however we think he is in deadly earnest and no one can afford to ignore him.

In a year when the NET airline bookings for both Airbus and Boeing have JUST cracked double figures, these sort of numbers are astronomical and terribly important to the stock of both companies. (EADS and Boeing).

The big question really is the likely outcome. So there are 4 doors:

Behind Door #1 is an all Boeing deal. Conventional money is on this one because its somewhat obvious.
Behind Door #2 is an all Airbus deal. This is the risky profile by JL is the master salesman.
Behind Door #3 is a composite deal. This will be expensive for both parties because both suppliers will have to pay extra to allow it.
Behind Door #4 is the goat. IE a laughing MOL.

I am not making any bets - just yet... except the side bet that THERE WILL BE A PR statement during Paris.

I also have a secret bet on something else. I will share with you if it happens. It has to do with a slightly different proposition.



Tom Campbell said...

Trips to the heads are generally characteristic of the the Male Female ratio of the passengers, the access to bar space in the departure area, the length of delay time dependent on the whether the departure time is anti or post noon, the length of flight, the degree of turbulence and the general level of hygiene awareness of the food preparers at the departure airport - there is another variable to this in the level of hygiene awareness in the pre-airport selection of suitable food vendors, however; this is an unknown variable. OK you Mathematicians get to work! I've set out the parameters and variables, let's see the formula!

Tom C said...

Oh, I forgot. Average age of passengers, <50 there's the incontinence factor to be taken into account!

Anonymous said...

For the time Ryanair ist just speculating to get attention and to play both manufacturers against each other.

Common sense says it will be an all Boeing. Ryanair already has Boeings and Seattle simply cannot lose this one against Toulouse. If B loses, it may very well go down the drain.
A should be very careful. It may get the order but will most probably lose money on it.

Wait and see