Bovine Air - I just had to share

This is from Professor Alipio. I am sorry but I do not
know the origin of this cartoon - but for all of us who
travel a lot - this is just perfect.

Cheers

Commodity Prices Collapse - Impact on Boeing?

One of Boeing's largest suppliers is Alcoa. Yesterday they announced a massive cut back on their capacity and a big reduction is resources, exploration and plants with cutbacks also in Staff.

This could have a big impact on Boeing that is still struggling with fasteners made of Aluminium. The last cut back in the Aluminium market resulted in the failure of the supply chain to Boeing for the 787 program. So a cut back now could have a major impact.

Let's hope not.

Cheers

Being Green - Just as Dead as a Dodo?

I saw a piece by Chris Elliott in MSNBC. One section in particular caught my eye:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28425799/

Being green is perhaps a bit passe this week...

So how about what Chris said: here is his piece:

Don’t allow a travel company to cash in on your conscience.
Being green shouldn’t be a reference to the color of your money. But it often is. Several airlines, including Air Canada, British Airways, Virgin Atlantic and Virgin America, now offer programs that allow you to offset your share of carbon dioxide emissions from a flight — for a small fee. Sounds awfully tempting. But it’s absurd. Think about it: Would you be willing to voluntarily pay an extra $30 to your pharmaceutical company to clean up one of its toxic dumps? If anything, you would think twice before buying another one of that company’s products. Which is exactly what travelers ought to do when faced with an offset option: run to the competition. Travel companies should be offsetting their own carbon, not guilting you into paying yet another surcharge for it.

I really agree with him - although I do choose to offset but not to the vendors. I offset through Terrapass.

So think carefully before you buy the Green BS. With oil now rising again will we hear a new noise around Green or will it be lost in the GFC (Global Financial Crisis)?

You be the judge

Cheers

Two OTA CEO changes in One Day !

So not content with the blockbuster news at Travelocity that Michelle was leaving - we now see that Steve is out at Orbitz and Barney is in at Orbitz.

It is a strange day. Does this mean Dara is quietly leaving also?

This is too much for me to handle today

Cheers

Farewell Michelle Peluso

A Sabre droid takes over - congrats to Hugh Jones on his promotion.

As a personal reflection - I always thought that Michelle gave a human face to Sabre and to the Travelocity product. She was passionate about - and remains so I am sure - the consumer. The resulting Travelocity product shows that.

Let's hope that Sabre continues her legacy.

Cheers

BA: "Only through delivering fundamental changes"

BA has started to deliver a series of messages about just how dire the situation is at the carrier and for their part of the industry in general. In the latest edition of BA’s staff newspaper CFO, Keith Williams, warned further restructuring was required to cope with the downturn. Its not a "may" it's a "when".

The airline has already axed 450 of its 1,400 managers and Williams said the latest shake-up would be ‘far-reaching, reshaping our company from top to bottom’. This puts Willie Walsh's job on the line and ups the stakes for the current management team. With BA's comparative performance against its peer legacy competitors down throughout 2008, and decidedly poor when compared to the LCC community - only radical change will do, the shareholders deserve nothing less.

Williams added: ‘Only through delivering fundamental changes can we achieve the small profit we are targeting this year and emerge from the crisis as a strong global player.’ Clearly BA has a low opinion of itself - perhaps right if we look at the progress in comparison to LH's global expansion. for the CFO of BA to openly state this is an admission perhaps of how far BA has fallen behind and needs to catch up.

I hope the boys and girls at Waterside are paying attention. Business as usual is not an option

Cheers

GDS Warn: The End Of The World Is Nigh

Oh give me a break....

Scaremongering is the last resorts of scoundrels and cads. Believe me or believe me not?

Here is a good article by Travel Weekly. http://www.travelweekly.com/article.aspx?id=184466&ad_id=5732

The GDS predict that the world is about to come to an end unless the airlines conform and jump to the GDS tune. What the GDS are specifically asking for is a set of standards that the airlines confirm to for all ancillary services and the way they are charged. Hmmm in whose life time are they hoping that this will happen?

Complicating the issue is that various consumer advocate groups are weighing in and so is legislation. In the EU of course there is already legislation covering this - a consumer's bill of rights and a set of legislation is likely to appear this year (2009).

So I think the GDS need to get a life and either they have to conform to the airlines needs or they will be road kill. Everyone agrees that the Ancillary Revenue models are not going away. What ever it is - bundled, unbundled, partially bundled, at POS, at Airport, In-flight etc etc - this is now a steady state. While I personally dislike this behavior and have railed against it - we have to accept that this is now an accepted practice.

So getting the airlines to conform - well that is not going to happen. Can you just see a meeting where all the airlines sit down and try and describe their ancillary revenue goals, aims and tools... I would suspect that at the very least an anti-trust lawyer would have a cow.

What is the likely outcome?

A smart GDS will figure out how to provide merchandising tools for the airlines to use. The more tools provided and the ease with which it can be adapted into a production environment with direct and indirect distribution - then the better it will be adopted.

Interestingly what we are seeing is the further blurring of the lines between the PSS (the airlines core res system), the GDS and the distribution tool such as the IBE (Internet Booking Engine). An example of this is how Sabre should have been the company to provide the tool for Frontier's new system - but it could not be done fast enough - thus F9 went to Datalex and got the work done. OK - that was an airline direct solution. Who is doing the GDS indirect based solution? So far despite a lot of noise - no one has a satisfactory solution. I suspect that we will some some attempts pretty soon. Just don't hold your breath if you are expecting the GDS companies to step up fast to this position. Rather we will see more obfuscation emerging - I can just describe that as GDS whining.

Am I right? You be the judge.

If a GDS, or anyone else would care to respond - then please feel free.

Cheers and stay tuned

Flight Attendants Sizewize at Air India Effective

Air India has first grounded and now fired 10 FFAs.

Its rules on size/weight that is applied to its Flight Attendants have been upheld by the Indian High Court in Delhi.

So after refusing a ground assignment - the National Airline of India fired the 10.

So clearly they are trying to make sure that their flights are as fuel efficient as possible and not carrying unnecessary surplus weight.

Could there be other airlines who have similar rules but have not enforced them? When oil was $148 pbl that was an issue. At $50 pbl not so much

Cheers

Why I Like the F9 Interface

Frontier's new simplified system for air booking is a wonderful thing.

For sometime I have been a big critic of the other displays particularly the ITA Software based displays as being way too complex.

I like simple.

Here is a good example of 3 different interfaces which illustrate my point.

the new Frontier display is very nice and the new Southwest display is nice - both have issues (Frontier has some bugs - WN is now hiding its cheapest fares making my jump through extra hoops to get to the cheapest fare).

Air Canada's display is just plain horrid.

Try this yourself at home - chose a high traveled city pair for each airline (I recommend DEN-SEA for F9 - same for WN and then chose YVR-YYZ for AC).

Congrats to the boys at Jim Young and his team at Frontier and Datalex for delivering something in a hurry. Now just fix that entry bug

Cheers

Airlines Still Cutting

I like Ben Mutzabaugh's blog at USA today. its a good useful source of info. He and Scott McCarthy are the only two I read on a regular basis.

So one of the pieces he did recently on Airline Capacity cuts is a good indication that things are going to be much worse before they get better.

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/flights/airline-capacity-map.htm

This is a good interactive map - enjoy it.

Cheers

Timothy

So I will have a sandwich and 60 minutes of flying please....

Low Cost Carrier Models have proliferated - so far we have seen models from potentially standing up (Ryanair rumour) to Flying Pets, to ... buying by the minute.

http://www.flyairtime.co.za/

I kid you not - is a potential airline in South Africa who will charge by time. If you think about it as airlines have recently gone for "Time on the Wing" or "Fly-by the hour" models it makes sense to extend that to the consumer.

Don't bank on it working full time though before someone figures out a way to handle it. I don't think this will be any time soon. But the idea might catch on in ZA where they have a nice market for LCCs - Kulula, Mango (daughter of SAA) and Onetime. Nationwide went out last year so there is room for one more...

Cheers

The strange case of the napping pilots….

OK so if you are working for a few trips a day going from A to B - and lets say you drive. If you feel sleepy - you turn up the AirCo, you open the car window or you get up and walk around.

So what happens if you are flying 50 pax and 2 Flight Attendants?

Well it seems that 2 Go! (Subsidiary of Mesa Group) Pilots did that on a 1 hour flight from HNL to ITO. They actually overshot and had to make some changes. So much so that first they were found out - when ATC had to wake them up, and then when they tried to cover them up.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/12/29/320541/ntsb-go-pilot-napped-regularly-in-mesa-cockpits.html

Were the passengers in any danger? ... actually possibly but then I am not an expert. Just suffice to say - that before you get on any Mesa operated flight - perhaps you should ask if the pilots are sleepy or not.

It seems that this was not an isolated example - the airline's chief pilot was apparently not aware which makes me even more nervous.

Don't you think?

BA Once Again Leads Declines at EU's Big 3.

Latest Traffic Results for November 2008

Airline Group / RPKs
Air France–KLM / -0.8%
British Airways / -5.9%
Lufthansa / -1.2%

Now they are all down.

UGH!

Cheers

Virgin Bails on Gatwick

Virgin group is going to bail out of its attempt to be one of the buyers for London Gatwick. Not even Branson’s magic can raise the sort of funds necessary… however as BAA’s parent Ferrovial struggles to restructure its debt – VS may be playing a waiting game… Virgin Atlantic reportedly (30-Dec-08) cancelled its bid for London Gatwick International Airport after failing to secure sufficient financial backing. Two consortia, led by Hochtief AirPort and Citigroup, are left in the bidding process and early offers are expected to be posted in Jan-09.

Meanwhile more carriers are bailing on LGW - perhaps easyjet might be a good buyer or Stelios himself.

Cheers

BA warms to India - again

British Airways is reportedly re-considering acquiring a 25% stake in India’s GoAir with company officials expected to meet in Feb-09 (Economic Times, 05-Jan-09). Rumours of a franchise agreement surfaced in late 2008, after BA assumed that acquisition was not allowed. At year's end the Indian Government re-formulated the rules for foreign ownership. In these new rules while Foreign airlines are currently barred from holding direct or indirect stakes in Indian airlines, there is now a provision for foreign ownership as I have written before. GoAir plans to increase its fleet to 35 aircraft by Mar-2011 from the current six. It plans to add 20 aircraft this year and add another nine in the following two years.

So if they failed with QF, are struggling with IB, going nowhere with AA then perhaps India might be a good training ground.

Given the massive spree from LH - the boys and girls in Waterside better get a move on.

Cheers

BABI deal hits a snag

Meanwhile back at the ranch - in London and Madrid the BABI (remember them? AA is off to one side for now) the British Airways and Iberia deal has hit a Pension Snag.

Iberia appointed pension consultants, Mercer, to review British Airways’ pension scheme, which is up to GBP1.7 billion in deficit (abtn.co.uk, 30-Dec-08). A report on the pension scheme will be issued in Jan-09.

Hmmm trouble in Paradise... but wait don't order yet... see the following blog entry on Go.

Cheers

Air Anschluss approved – LH looks North and East

As Austrian’s sale is approved – the German march for European hegemony appears to be unabated with LH eyeing both SAS and LOT next.

Austrian Airlines seems to be all done bar the shouting: "We are pleased that it has proven possible to reach an agreement between ÖIAG and our alliance partner of many years, Lufthansa. The strategic concept removes our structural weaknesses, such as a lack of international sales strength and disadvantages in purchasing. Together with our own measures, this will enable the almost total retention of our network strength. As a result, the benefits for our customers can be retained. None of this would have been possible - even with a great deal of additional capital - had we tried to go it alone," Alfred Ötsch, CEO said on 4th of Jan.

Looking northward, Lufthansa International Director, Karsten Bentz, stated that “after the German and Italian markets, Scandinavia is the most important for Lufthansa”. Lufthansa has reportedly been in talks with SAS, rekindling speculation about a planned acquisition. Confirming this Bentz is also quoted as saying: "We want to take an active part in the consolidation that is taking place in the European airline industry, and that subject is often the focus of Lufthansa management meetings." Meanwhile to the east, Poland’s Treasury Minister, Aleksander Grad, reportedly stated the government may increase the capital of LOT Polish Airlines if no investor other than Lufthansa bids for it.


So LH's has laid out its stall - what about BA and AF/KL?

Cheers

Despite fewer flights - longer US delays

Scott McCarthy in the Wall Street Journal has some bad news for the US Air Traveler. Despite a massive reduction in flights particularly at the last 4 months of the year - delays worsened for the whole year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123119880352955507.html?mod=djemseat

So while the US airlines were trumpeting their on time performance - it seems that actually their performance worsened during 2009. This does not bode well for the next time we have upturn in travel. It does however bode well for FAA's attempts to control slots at constrained airports like LGA and JFK. Interestingly my colleagues over at www.airportbutler.com have some sample data on this and should definitely be looked at as a resource for this.

The only silver lining was a slight improvement in the improvement of "on time" but the delays were longer. Last year, 75.4% of U.S. passenger airline flights arrived on-time, according to FlightStats, up from 73.5% in 2007. While improved over 2007, 2008 still was worse than airlines performed in 2006 or 2005 said McCarthy.

Of course he doesn't know that the airlines -insidiously - were leaving early to make their ontime performance look good. I could use a descriptive term for this behavior but I am far too polite for that.

Beware... Obama can use this information to fund some improvements in the ATC. But will they do this wisely?

Cheers

IATA's prognostications for 2009

So we now have the formal view on 2009 from the venerable IATA. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA),the world's airlines are expected to lose US$2.5 billion in 2009.

Forecast highlights are:
Industry revenues are expected to decline to US$501 billion. This a fall of US$35 billion from the US$536 billion in revenues forecasted for 2008. This drop in revenues is the first since the two consecutive years of decline in 2001 and 2002.

Yields will decline by 3.0 percent (5.3 percent when adjusted for exchange rates and inflation). Passenger traffic is expected to decline by 3 percent following growth of 2 percent in 2008. Cargo traffic is expected to decline by 5 percent, following a drop of 1.5 percent in 2008.

On the day when the oil industry celebrated the anniversary of the first time Oil passed $100/pp level, IATA predicts a 2009 oil price to average US$60 per barrel for a total bill of US$142 billion. This is US$32 billion lower than in 2008 when oil averaged US$100 per barrel (Brent).

Hmmm I think IATA has the price of Oil wrong. I will stick with Boeing's estimate of $80ppl as the average - however with a depressed first half I will lower it to between $70-$75. Anyone want to take my bet?

Cheers

So 787 Ship ZA01 actually took another little trip

Here is a nice picture of said Prototype courtesy of flight.

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flightblogger/assets_c/2009/01/kpae4515.html

Cheers

Timothy

737 Replacement Postponed - Major Upgrades Planned

Boeing is likely to postpone its all new 737 Replacement aircraft perhaps until the well into the 2020's. In 2008 it was reported that the date had been pushed back into at the earliest 2015. In May last year Scott Carson said "We're continuing our research effort until we find the right solution," he added "It has to be a 25-year product."

Instead it is starting to seriously examine another kick on the existing platform. So based on this the Professor is going to speculate a little on the possible future final boost to the now venerable 737 line.

The overall improvement will be of the order 5-10% improvement in performance both in noise reduction, fuel improvement and greeness. We might get a slight boost in capacity with another look at expanding the fuselage also.

So what will the upgrade look like technically.

First the final stretch will be 2 small small plugs of about 10 feet each before and after the wing to keep the same basic flight performance characteristics. A bit bigger is also possible indeed there is a need to do this. There is a current gap in the Boeing product line with nothing between the 737-900 and the 787-3/8 models (assuming that the 767 300 will be allowed to sunset gracefully). We might see a 737 exceed the 155 feet length of the 757-200. The beefed up wing of the 737-900ER can be goosed just a little with a new set of wing tips a la 787 and 747i.

The engines may be a variant of the new PW1000G with a little boost to match the requirements of the heavier airframe and weight needs. The GEnx and the Current family of RR Trent based family wouldn't meet the same requirements. So Boeing is dependent on at least another competitor emerging and then it would have to deal with a decision to have one or more engines on the newer airframe. As is often the case here economics and deals may best efficiency etc. (Given the early wins by P&W with the Pure Power series engines - we can be sure that the lights are burning in Derby and Franco-American labs. The biggest impediment to all of this is the undercarriage configuration. The current 61 inch fan diameter is too restrictive for the bigger version of the PW1000G so a new more powerful version with a smaller diameter fan with performance in the 24-29K would be required. The biggest impediment to all of this is the undercarriage configuration so look for a slightly higher aircraft probably as much as 6 inches. The other candidate is the so-called LeapX from CFM.

Fuel performance would improve by as much as 8% in comparative terms and a further 2-3 percent might be gained from the new wing tips and perhaps a modified aerofoil. heck we might even see a shark tail and a new more slippery nose but I doubt anything more exotic than that. We would also expect a new glass cockpit - again borrowed from the 787. A new FMS would also contribute to more and better performance.

In the cabin there would be nothing much changed other than perhaps the addition of the PPG Aerospace dimmable windows. Greater use of composites on certain equipment parts will contribute to a weight reduction of between 1-2% overall. However these will be replacements for Aluminium panels rather than anything more radical.

One thing that will be interesting will be the introduction of these pieces. Rather than a full blown new model type - we will see perhaps several implementations of these enhancements with first an improvement in the current 700 and 800 and 900 length ships with the new engines before the -1000 model which will be longer. Much of this depends on Boeing's competitive position between the 767-300 and the small A330-200. If the latter continues to dominate and take significant numbers of orders then look for an earlier implementation.

One big issue to be resolved will be where the ships get built. The land in Renton is getting more and more valuable for shopping (The Landings is now looking pretty full). Building a brand new factory in Everett would be somewhat tough and so that presents problems. Nope - I think the new planes will continue to come out of Renton and the now 3rd line (for the US Navy) could be reconfigured once the P8s major production is ended and that could form the basis for the new initial line.

When will we see these new ships? Probably 2014-16. Rest assured a certain Hungarian born gentlemen has already been briefed and is already demanding it sooner than Boeing wants to deliver it.

Isn't it fun to speculate. If anyone wants to slip me more factual information - then please feel free.

In the near future I will also speculate on the A320 upgrade.

Cheers

PS - since this original post - I should have checked with the FlightBlogger Team and Scott Hamilton who have some additional points; go here and have a look.

Cheers

Timothy

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flightblogger/2008/12/introducing-the-boeing-737-re-.html

The Perils of Flying and Drink

Two recent cases have brought to the fore the problems of drinking and flying. However this time its the passengers who seem to have the problem.

In the first case a husband and wife - who I believe are Japanese Citizedn - are suing United Airlines for "negligently" overserving alcohol during a flight from Osaka, Japan, to San Francisco, saying the carrier's drinks fueled the domestic violence involving the two shortly after their plane landed.

Fortified with Burgundy wine allegedly supplied at 20-minute intervals by United crew members during the December 2006 trip, Yoichi Shimamoto became so inebriated "that he could not manage himself," according to a lawsuit filed Dec. 5 in U.S. District Court in Tampa.

Shimamoto was arrested, accused of disorderly conduct and battery after he struck his wife, Ayisha, six times, injuring her face and upper lip as they were heading through U.S. Customs in San Francisco, the complaint said.

The couple - who obviously made up afterward and of course have never engaged in such foreplay before - want $100,000 from united to pay for Legal fees, bail and the cost of living in Tampa (where they filed the lawsuit) during the hearings.

Clearly UAL staff forced the burgundy down the man's throat. I am surprised that he isn't suing for damage on his lips where the glass impacted them during this alleged terrible crime.

So the moral of this story is don't mix United Airlines, Burgundy, a Japanese husband and wife, Customs in SFO and a home in Tampa.

So to the next one. This should prove that the Mile High Club is a place where only certain people can be admitted based on their level of alcohol and their state of mind.

A female air passenger awoke from a dream about an orgy during a flight to Gatwick to find a businessman molesting her, a UK court heard. Former packaging firm boss Ake Lundbom, 63, allegedly attacked the woman in her 30s during an eight-hour overnight flight from Atlanta on Delta.

A UK jury heard how he "pounced" when his alleged victim fell into a deep sleep after taking a sleeping pill and drinking two glasses of wine. The US citizen victim claimed she awoke to find the man with his hands inside her trousers. Police arrested Lundbom when the plane landed at Gatwick.

The prosecutor said: "After the aircraft had been in flight for about four hours, the lighting in the cabin was dimmed to enable people to have a better chance of getting some sleep. The victim went into a deep sleep, something she refers to as 'completely blacking out'. "The next thing she can remember is having a dream, a weird dream in her recollection, in which everybody on the aircraft is having some sort of sexual encounter.

"She tried to get herself awake but could not do so for some time. She spoke to the defendant who is doing this to which he replied, 'Shuush, it's OK, don't worry about it'." The woman told the jury she had a glass of red wine with her meal then fell asleep soon after, although she could not remember whether she took a tranquilliser or not. The next thing she remembered was a "scratching" feeling on her inner thigh.

She said: "I felt pressure inside me. I woke up fully and realised I was sideways in my seat, I had a blanket over me, I was too close to him. She said she reported the incident to an air steward who said the pair had been cuddling and she had assumed they were a couple.

In interview, Lundbom told police the alleged victim's DNA was found under his fingernails after he touched her ankle and stroked her hair to help her sleep.

Lundbom, of Gothenburg, Sweden, denies assault by penetration in June last year.

Clearly the woman has issues with her memory as well.

So the moral of this story is don't mix Delta, Wine, Swedish over 60s Business men, US female citizens in their 30s and a British Court. Its a legal cocktail.

Gol Founder Facing Murder Charges

The family patriarch of the Constantino family Nene (78) for second time is facing charges.

Authorities accuse Nene Constantino, 78, of ordering the 2001 killings of two men in a land dispute near Brasilia. The gunmen have not been caught thus far.

In Brazil's somewhat complex legal system, police have to ask a judge to indict a suspect. The judge then determines if formal charges are filed. Constantino has yet to be charged in either case and therefore we are cautious to add that while he is a suspect he has not been formally charged.
A spokeswoman for the Federal District's civil police confirmed the request for indictment.

Constantino is one of Brazil's wealthiest and most influential business players. His familt fortune is estimated at more than $1 billion it could be higher if the other family members such as Junior who is CEO is included.

A former long-haul trucker who started a bus company in the 1950s that became one of the country's biggest, Constantino started Gol with his sons. The budget airline began flying in 2001 and quickly made inroads into the Brazilian market. In recent years the airline has struggled as it absorbed the former National Carrier Varig. TAM - its arch competitor has surged ahead especially in International markets.