13 January 2010

Growth Not Just Shoots - But What Level?

ARC has just published its December numbers allowing us to get a view of the full 2009 picture. There are a number of interesting trends that can be deduced from looking at the numbers.

Go the website and check out the numbers for yourself (what you think I work for free!!!).

Here are some trends that I would like to draw your attention to:

1. Intermediary traffic actually increased from the middle of the year. The clear trend turn occurred in about July when we saw the numbers finally bottom out.

2. Yields are also showing positive. In fact all ARC numbers were up in December. (Year on Year). Admittedly from a low base. Percentage wise it was the strongest December in a very long time.

3. My spies report that January in some markets has come out swinging. New budgets on the corporate side and a general improvement in outlook is resulting in positive activity on both sides of the Atlantic and its pretty broad. Asia remains a little less steady though.

Finally the upturn has FINALLY spread to the shipping market. Transpac spot rates on surface shipping rose by 10% in one week this month.

While for most people who read this blog this may not seem to be important - just remember that Shipping leads air freight and air freight leads passenger numbers.

IATA (those kill joys) are saying that the recovery will be slow. I believe that they are right. However they are toning down their most recent projects to lower numbers than any one would like. One thing is for sure - surplus capacity will not likely to be used as a tool in this recovery.

(Allegiant and Ryanair exempted!!!)


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