17 August 2011

Follow Up Post - US Intermediay Sales Declines

I posted a story yesterday on the decline in July activity.

It bothered me. So I went back and tried to do a YTD creation comparing official US government statistics.

While these numbers are not completely aligned - the best comparison is to look at TICKETED transactions of ARC vs FLOWN passengers on DOT BTS site

Here are the 2 URL master sources:

DOT: http://www.bts.gov/xml/air_traffic/src/datadisp.xml
ARC: http://www.arccorp.com/news/stat/2011-05.jsp

The core data does not bode well for the GDSs and the US Agency business:

Through May - ARC transactions are DOWN 1.66%, DoT Traffic shows scheduled emplanements are UP 3.9%. This on only a 2.6% increase in capacity.

If I sound like a broken record - then so be it. Lesson here is that its a sellers market of airline products in the USA.

I had a peak at the Winter 2011 Schedule analysis. For the US airlines there has been a steady cut back of traffic. Delta is shaving frequencies across many markets. Dropping daily flights to 4-5 times a week is a common trick to reduce capacity.

This is going to put pressure on the intermediaries further.

The consumer has noticed.


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