17 November 2023

The Professor's Takeaways

 

5 Takeaways from PhocusWright



As with many times before – I attended the 2023 edition of the PhocusWright Conference. I had many conversations with different players across the ecosystem. Here are my top learnings.

 

  1. 2024 is FUD city. If 2022 and 2023 were all about Revenge Travel – then the tail end of 2023 and now 2024 are headed to a world of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. What is causing it? Both demand and supply are affected. Supply is constrained and inconsistent. Basic economics say that when supply is constrained – prices go higher. Airlines are operating at 90% load factors. Further supply itself (aka the number of planes and people to keep them flying) are so constrained that there is only one place to go. Yes higher prices. Demand is going to be constrained. Wars, disease and well, can we please just take a breather? All of this affects demand. Politics are just getting very nasty and people are far too nervous to actually stray far from home. The amount of false information around is astounding. Who do you trust?

  2. Tactical, Tactical, Tactical. Did I say Tactical. I could have easily said just one key word R-E-V-E-N-U-E. Many players are not thinking long term, they are just thinking tactically how do I make revenue work? Look for the R word to be on most people’s lips. Risk and risk amelioration will be words to live by. The price of money ran up so far and so quickly it caught investors by surprise. They are keeping their powder dry in these uncertain times.

  3. Innovation has gone back into its decade of sleep. Way back in the heady days of the Internet before Google even, Innovation woke up from it’s 1980s slumber and roared back into life. Much of what happened in the 1990s was as a direct result of heavy lifting that occurred in the decade before. Well I have watched so many start up pitches – you know the ones… “my friend and I were in (pick exotic place) and we realized that trip planning is messed up… “ Thank god for Tik Tok is what I say. Seriously though, we are stuck in the long tail with little big changes occurring. There are many claiming to be innovative but perhaps not so much. One key word which needs to be on everyone’s lips is “Trust”. In an uncertain world safe harbours look awfully inviting.

  4. Laggards and Adopters, plus the odd Pioneer. Normally when innovation is hard driving – it's the other way round. But now, Laggards seem to have the ascendancy. This is especially pronounced in the Indirect channels of product distribution. Some Travel Sellers (aka Agents) and their cohorts (let’s call them GDSs) are really digging in and not wanting to change. Pioneers and yes there are some great ones are in disruption. Pay attention chaps Next year despite being Tactical – Pioneers like Spotnana, AmTrav and others are going to demonstrate that NDC is actually not that hard. I wouldn’t wait for that Purple Pill to take effect either. Now about you adopters… you need scale. That is tricky. The big question is where is the fork? Look to the new aggregators who are able to bridge the gap between the old and new worlds. Look for players who have been around a while with dirt under their fingernails.

  5. Service is not a dirty word. However, I do believe it needs some better clarification. I would split it into two. Serviceability and Service Delivery. The latter was always the panacea but increasingly the gap between the two has increased and there are many instances -especially in NDC where physical service cannot make up for the lack of Serviceability of a reservation record. The airlines need to up their game and address some of these issues ASAP or it will continue to be a big drag on the NDC adoption curve.  

    So, my dear readers... think of where you stand. Gird for battle. Best of luck to you. And if I can help, just call me. And bring some popcorn with you.


    Cheers


14 October 2023

This Song reverberates across my head.....

 I have loved this song since it debuted about 14 years ago.


Travel is by definition a very personal experience. So automating much of it while logical is not necessarily good for that experience. Some things are ideally suited. Check-in, or more accurately queue avoidance makes sense. But service and support doesn't lend itself easily. I think while it has become better - audiotext menus are just terrible. I delight in making them break. But in general they are bad. Fear of screwing up has turned these menus into unnecessary challenges of mental manipulation (or the other M word). So far no study has been done on the impact of these automated interfaces on brand value. Instead like sheep we have no choice but to accept. Here is one perspective to consider. See what you think. Having spent 3 days at the WebinTravel conference which was all about connecting the human and the tech, I can assure you while there are many promising options - we have a long way to go.  #CustomerService #automatons #Travel

13 October 2023

Where to find the good stuf?

There is a lot that I write and produce that is unique content and commentary on the business sector that I inhabit and of course love. But there has been a dark side.

 


I am talking about the destruction of Twitter as a means to transmit quality information that is useful for others who like me share the passion for our space.

Thus - I you want to catch me - I will still post from Instagram to Twitter - but the best place to read my writing is on Linked-in. 

Here you will find lots of material. https://www.linkedin.com/in/timothyoneildunne/recent-activity/all/

You can still read some here, but the best stuff will be as noted.

Thanks for reading.

 

 



07 September 2023

if Airlines Sold Paint...

 


DISCLAIMER THIS IS INTENDED AS HUMOR. (Humour for European folks). I first wrote this on August 05th 2010. Fixed a typo but this is the same post. Read and enjoy.

Opening Scene. A small local paint shop in main street USA. Man goes the Shop opens the door…. Outside the store are disclaimer signs in 6 point type warning you to the safety and pricing policies of paint. There is also a HUGE video display in the shop window not with attractive paint cans or uses for paint but with rolling rather stern dire warning information scrolling across the screen. It gives the consumer specific instructions on how to buy paint in online and offline. There are a list of places with maps and URLs showing where you can buy paint and the prices of paint at each place. There is so much information the board takes 5 mins to scroll the info which is illegible anyway. There is a Federal watchdog email address and website address prominently displayed on the signs outside the door, on the door and displayed throughout the store. On each paint can is a big warning like a cigarette pack health warning. Attached to each paint can is a 4 page booklet.

Man (looking a little bewildered) approaches a smiling Shop Clerk. The Previous customer storms out looking very angry dragging a balling kid behind her.

Customer asks: can I buy some….

Clerk: Before you say anything sir – I am obliged to tell you that you can buy paint online and offline. Before I can tell you anything about the paint please sign here that you understand that I am going to tell you about paint and that you understand I may forget to tell you everything about paint so this absolves me from making a mistake and my boss from taking the cost of the paint out of my paycheck… Please sign here (Handing customer a clip board with a 2 page disclaimer, man signs it without reading it)….. thank you.

Clerk: Now how can I help you on this truly fabulous day?

Customer: Hi. How much is your paint?

Clerk: Well sir, that depends on a lot of things and the government makes me tell you that there are possible surcharges here is a list of them (Handing a 4 page booklet). Please read this….

Customer: (Mutters under his breath – this is ridiculous) – out loud says: Can’t you give me an approximate price?

Clerk: Our lowest price is our introductory special at $12 a gallon. After that we have dozens of different prices up to $199. Plus the ancillary services fees based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: What’s the difference in the quality of the paint?

Clerk: Oh, there’s no difference. It’s all exactly the same stuff. But as you can see the cans are very different. Don’t you like the way the paint can sparkles?

Customer: Well, in that case I’ll take your $12 paint.

Clerk: Well actually the $12 variety is only available on our website. If you want to buy it here at the store you’ll be charged an additional $20 Customer Convenience Fee. Plus the ancillary services based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: So if I go home and get it off the website, its only $12?

Clerk: That’s correct sir – plus a Credit Card Usage Fee of $6 and then there’s standard Shipping and Handling of $15. Plus the ancillary services based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: What? So in other words buying online would cost me almost exactly the same as what I’d have to pay here in the store?

Clerk: I suppose so, but if you buy it here you get to use it immediately. Online purchases take ten business days to get to you – unless you pay the optional $25 Express My Paint Fee. Plus the ancillary services fees based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: You’ve got to be kidding me!

Clerk: Well no sir, but it’s academic anyway as right now the $12 paint is completely sold out in both places.

Customer: That’s BS. I’m looking at shelves full of the stuff!

Clerk: Ah, but that doesn’t mean it’s available for sale. We sell only a certain number of introductory priced cans on any given day. Hang on a second let me look it up, (Clerk looks at his computer and then smiles broadly) YES look at that! It just became available again – at $17.50. You can do the same search yourself Sir. Plus the ancillary services fees based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: C’mon! You mean to say it went up while I’m standing here?!

Clerk: (looking sympathetic) ‘Fraid so. Inventory control changes our prices all the time. I would actually like to sell you the paint but the Government says I have to wait till everybody has been told what the new price is. I strongly recommend you purchase your paint as soon as possible as it could go up again, but it’s also possible that it could go down and even not be available again. Finally the government might not let me sell it to you until everyone has been informed of whether the paint price has been checked by this mysterious organization called the BTC. How many gallons do you want?

Customer: Well, maybe three gallons. No, make that four, I don’t want to run out. I assume I can return anything I don’t open?

Clerk: Certainly sir. The $17.50 paint is non-refundable, but if you return it within 48 hours you will be entitled to a $5 credit towards the future purchase of another gallon of the same color at the same or higher price. Plus the final price may change because of the ancillary services based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: That’s crazy. In that case I’ll just give any unopened cans to my brother as he’s planning to repaint his home soon.

Clerk: Sorry sir, no-CAN-do! Our terms and CANditions – that’s a little in-house joke – prohibit paint transfer. It is strictly for the use of the original purchaser. Also the Government doesn’t like competition they need to know where you use the paint so that they can tell everyone in your street that you bought the paint and have used it.

Customer: But wait a minute, I hadn’t spotted those “Paint Sale – $9.99* a Can” signs over there? They are hidden behind all these notices, it makes it so difficult to see an actual price off... That sounds like a much better deal.

Clerk: Ah yes, that’s from our low cost paint division. The Government doesn't actually want to let me tell you about that as it would take too long to explain but we won court case and so we can no have the sign up. However i have to disclose a different set of rules, the asterisk denotes that the cans are actually half-gallons and the price is based on a minimum purchase of two. There is also an additional Environmental Fee of $5 per can – this is required because we use that nice sparkly resin to make the paint cans look nice – we have to pay a special fee because its made of red lead, a non-refundable Can Deposit of $3.50, a Paint Facility Charge of $5 and if you want more than one color, the second has a $25 surcharge and the third is $50 extra. Plus….

Customer: Yes – I know … Plus the ancillary services based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand……This is utterly ridiculous. To hell with this! I’ll buy what I need somewhere else! Now at least I know I can buy it elsewhere – see here it says so in the booklet you handed me earlier.

Clerk: Well sir, you may be able to buy paint for some rooms from another store, but you won’t be able to find paint for your connecting hall and stairway anywhere but here. And I should also point out that if you want Uni-Directional paint it is priced at $249 a gallon. But that paint is special – you don’t have to tell the Government what you want to use it for.

Customer: I thought your most expensive paint was $199!

Clerk: That’s only if you paint non-stop all the way around the room and back to the point at which you started. Stairways and hallways are considered one-way exceptions to the rule. Plus you must notify the government when you move from one room to the other.

Customer: So, if I buy the $199 paint and use it in my hallway what are you going to do about it – send some goons in to paint over it?

Clerk: Wow, You are WAY smarter than the last guy who came in, I believe you’re getting it now sir. But no, please, that would be plain silly. We’ll simply charge you a Direction Adjustment Fee plus the difference to $249 on your next purchase. Then the government would have to come and inspect it. You cannot use the room until they do. I should tell you that after consultation with their consumer panel which would be your neighbors and the inspector – this process may take about 3 months.

Customer: Next purchase? No way! I’m out ‘a here

Clerk: At Skyhigh Paints we never forget you have a choice, so thanks for shopping with us. Have a nice day! And Sir please mind your step as you pass by the disclaimer signs we had a guy in here yesterday who tripped on it and wants to sue us for it…..

18 May 2023

NDC was it enough? Article Part 2 (Repost from 2014)

 

NDC was it enough? Article Part 2

 

Part 2 – Commercial Restraint

 

 

Cue Music: Stop in the name of love! (Before you break my heart) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop!_In_the_Name_of_Love

 

(With apologies to Messrs Holland–Dozier–Holland for abusing the title and first line of their famous song). 

 

In part one of this two-part series on the progress of NDC we looked at technology, process and enablement. In this part two of the series let’s address economics. . Distribution to intermediaries needs to change. Recent numbers on the value of merchandising and the cost of distribution show how reducing cost and raising revenue are critical to the health of the airline industry as a whole. While obvious it seems that only recently Airlines have started bringing ROCI (Return on Capital Invested into their Lexicon). Let’s look at the macro numbers. According to IATA the average profit per airline seat this year (barring catastrophe, probably the best ever) is less than $6. The average amount of gross revenue from Ancillaries is similar - a positive value of $7.50 per passenger trip. Without the revenue hike from ancillaries, (unpopular as they are) the airlines would lapse back into the abyss of loss. Yet the airline industry is still paying the GDS’ an average around $6 per passenger journey for most if not all travel agency generated passenger segments. The economics therefore are a compelling reason for implementing the distribution reformation that NDC exemplifies. 

 

Current airline commerce is based currently on a model of legacy homogenous technology. The GDS model (few to many via a portal or gateway), while fine in 1960s economics, has not kept up with the fundamental change of the internet (many open to many world) that we now inhabit.  Both the commercial terms and the legacy technology (and of course the airlines’ dependence) allowed the gateways to become gatekeepers. 

 

Contractual Gordian Knots

 

I personally have inspected many contracts for airlines and Travel Agencies.  For individuals who enter the world of travel technology from other commercial sectors such as banking or insurance (i.e. other highly functional always on service industries) the restrictive terms of the technology agreements – upstream and downstream – appear to be out of character to the open world that travel aspires to be.  I still spend many hours each month reviewing technology contracts from commercial software companies. These conventional software contracts rarely if ever constrain what the trading partner can commercially do other than keep to the fitness for purpose intended. GDS contracts always contain clauses peppered throughout the agreements that constrain what a trading partner can commercially do. The justification? The technology is too fragile and too sensitive and needs to be protected from bad user technology on the remote end and bad processes that enable trading partners’ abuse of the system. In reality the technology powering the airlines and travel distribution in general, while quite arcane and old, is very robust. So the question remains - why don’t the providers of this software invest more to make their products stronger, more efficient? In my opinion the industry needs to grow up and demand the removal of these restrictive clauses.  There should be no constraints on the use of the technology by the distribution community on either supply side or distribution (agency) side.  But that appears to be a very big ask. 

 

The GDS commercial contracts for airline-based distribution are designed to protect the GDS business model, and not necessarily to enable the business of the airlines and their business partners. I would challenge anyone to demonstrate in public that the GDS contracts have no restraint of business clauses in them. These clauses harm not just the airline community and are damaging for consumers, but I would add have no real value for the GDS companies themselves. By locking themselves and their trading partners into an arcane set of strait-jacket commercial terms, they are missing out on the very benefits that the open community can provide, and denying themselves the very opportunity they spend so much time promoting in their public personas. IE that adoption of open technology enhances the user and consumer experience. There is a clear contrast between the benefits gained from collaborative development in the open source community and the disadvantages of the highly singular and proprietary development efforts of the GDS. The need for ownership and control by the GDS providers is not a war of technology development but a daily battle of minimalist delivery. The resulting frustration of the user community and the actual customers can be heard loud and clear. 

 

What needs to be done to enable a true and open world? 

 

NDC is just a component of an open airline distribution community. No one should have to be persuaded alone that new is better than old. Smart minds are not as concerned with new as they are with value. For NDC to be a success we need a new commercial framework, one that provides value to all stakeholders. The adoption of an open-source like environment and collaboration across the industry will have two distinct benefits to the evolution of technology. 

 

Outcome #1 It will enable collaboration. Today within the respective app stores provided by Sabre, Travelport and Amadeus, the contractual terms sound like they are from the dark ages. The ability of developers (let alone users) to collaborate and share is contractually restricted. I would encourage all the users of technology and providers in the app movement to subscribe to open source rather than the very closed current commercial models.

 

Outcome #2. It will reduce resource waste and increase efficiency of coding. By freeing the developer from a single host environment restriction the resulting applications will be the best and most efficient code bases. 

 

And the benefits?

 

As in other industries the benefits will accrue fast. The whole industry will be able to take advantage both within the industry segment but also cross industry. Ultimately the consumer and the stakeholders in travel will be able to appreciate a significantly faster deployment of consumer and B2B services. The cost of time needs finally to be included in the equation. In one recent case study, a major US airline was able to reduce the implementation time for new product offers from the typical 24 months to a matter of months or, in some cases, weeks using the existing merchandising capability of NDC 1.0.  Changes to existing offers—modifying the price of seats, or the contents of a service bundle— can now be easily accomplished by airline personnel within minutes, without lengthy change requests or costly Statements of Work.  In my view the benefits of NDC extend beyond just pure distribution. The conundrum being faced by many airlines as to whether they replace their PSS with a slightly newer but no less monolithic PSS hosted system needs to be addressed. Implementing NDC INSIDE THE AIRLINE provides for further enhancements and decoupling. In turn this will lead to greater flexibility and less cost. 

 

Final Thought.

 

NDC is in reality just a set of schemas. It is not a new platform of software code. In of itself NDC does nothing without commercial adoption and utilization. We must recognize that airlines take a long time to adopt new technologies. The key to success would normally reside in the GDS companies accepting Resolution 787 just like they have done in other instances such as eTicket. However NDC is bigger and far more wide reaching. The industry must stop looking inward and focus on the outward threat and opportunity. We need to remove the barriers to an open market system. NDC is the way to go. It is but one of many tools that have to be employed to take advantage of a business model that has shown itself to be profitable. In this case, the external threat is far more serious than any the industry has ever faced. Failure and slow speed are not an option because the consequences of both are clear. The airlines and their business partners will be paying a tax/toll far higher than they pay to the GDS companies today. And Google and company will be laughing all the way to the bank. 

 

 


 

But what we really all want is this.

 

 

(Cue Music - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Happy_Together_%28song%29 )

 

Timothy O'Neil-Dunne is a contributing Node to Tnooz (now PhoocusWire) and managing partner at travel consultancy firm, T2Impact. He serves as the lead for the airline, aviation and airport practice. He is also a Co-founder of VaultPAD an accelerator devoted exclusively to travel and travel-related startup businesses.

Timothy was a founding management team member of the Expedia team where he headed the ground transportation and international portfolios, before founding T2Impact in 1998.

He has worked in aviation and travel distribution for more than 30 years, including time with Worldspan as head of technology where he managed international technology services from product to infrastructure.

 T2Impact Blog.