ATI Alliances - Good or Bad?

Here is an interesting perspective from Mike Platt the former CEO of Hoggs UK.

He argues that there will be some challenges for users who are seeing their choices dry up

So have a read... then decide if competition has improved as a result of ATI - Anti Trust Immunity.

In my view the US Dept of Transportation was off its head when it pronounced that competition would be improved as a result of ATI.

I might have even said so.

The trick now will be to see if they are right in actuality with the yields on these routes climbing through the roof.

Good for the airlines... not so good for the consumer. But then Governments always know better

Cheers

Bad Things Happen to Good Products

As a bleeding edge technology adopter - I have seen some really great ideas screwed up due to a wide variety of reasons.

Some of them are the result of evil others coveting the idea. Some as a result of unfortunate happenstance. Some by bad decision making and hubris. But there is a hard core of products that never quite seem to survive the take over by another company.

I think we can point to MySpace as a good example of this. Did NewsCorp screw up or was this as a result of poor timing?

The most recent carcass to cross my desk is Cardscan. This was a killer tool. Feed business cards into it and they automatically get to your desktop.They were taken over by Dymo - itself a former great label maker. Now owned by Rubbermaid. Read the service end here.

Today the announcement was that they were discontinuing the address update service. This is a segment now so well handled by Plaxo and Linked in. Not to mention Facebook.

And look at their valuations. Could Cardscan have become one of these? In my view yes. Too bad they missed the opportunity.

Cheers

As Big Search Screws SMEs - They Turn To Social

More evidence that Search is becoming uneven when dealing with small and large enterprises. As SEO and other techniques mature - the poor little guy keeps getting beaten up by the antics of Big Brands and Google's relentless mission to control the web. So what does he do? He turns to the tried and tested/true methods he has always deployed. Search is a losers game for the small local guys. And as I have written - such grouped buying or coupon businesses such as Groupon don't do it either.



Sadly - the small player has little chance against the might of the big guys. Thus they have to find other words to promote their businesses. Travel is often about the little guy. He/She doesn't have the benefit of local. So this makes for a tough choice for long tail Travel players. However the Social Media platform is spawning solid Social Commerce. Let's hope that the Googleplex doesn't assimilate that also.

Check out this piece from eMarketer on the subject.

Cheers

So You Think Your Search Engine Advertising Is Worth it?

Hmmm you might JUST want to think again about that after you read this story.

Lately I have been looking at the effectiveness of search. I think you may have read some of my pieces about the way search is handled and underpinning much of this is my view that Search has been gamed so badly as to have lost its effectiveness. So here is some data to support that theory.

User Experience research company User Centric did a controlled study to evaluate the effectiveness of the Organic vs Advertising Results in Search Engines. You can find a version of this from eMarketer here


In this study the eyeball movement was monitored. The results showed that ads were largely ignored. The organic results being much more effective and garnering the attention of the user. Interestingly in my view – there is more data to show that things are not going so well for search not just in this area.

eMarketer search results study shows a decline in results and effectiveness of search since 2004 vs 2010.

Compounding this fact is that the effectiveness of Google starts to come under scrutiny with its results – despite being far more voluminous – not being as effective as Bing and Yahoo.

In the case of Travel with only 15% of all searches starting at the Googleplex – this shows there is some disruption to the model. Maybe ITA should up the price to Big GOOG.

Cheers

So who is best at understanding the market – Advertising Agencies or Their clients

Oh boy… way back when I was in advertising working for some of the leading agencies of the day – I would say (now openly with the benefit of hindsight) that in general we thought our clients were less capable of understanding the process and effectiveness of advertising. After all that is why they hired us right? As I have been out of the Ad business for a very long time – I don’t have any vestiges to protect. I was thus very interested to read a piece in eMarketer about the difference in perceptions of the Advertisers and the Agencies with regard to digital media.

According to a report on 2011 marketing budgets from Econsultancy and SAS, agencies worldwide published by eMarketer http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?R=1008275 are looking to move more aggressively into Digital Media than their clients. Advertisers prefer the tried tested and true more traditional outlets of email and search as well as sticking with display advertising. Their agencies are more focused on the newer digital media services of Social and Mobile. While this is good for the traditional media. The advent of the iPad and greater adoption of mobile and social media makes it only a matter of time before the change makes the existing economic model for many forms of traditional media unsustainable. In my view as I have written many times before this is actually very sad because we are probably witnessing the last generation who will ever hold a newspaper in their hands.

Sad but true.

Cheers

Form Over Function? At Your Peril

Thee battle of form over function has probably been raging for aeons. Ever since Man invented the wheel - and probably even before that. In the world of Travel we too often have used Form as a solution to solve one of many issues - not least of which is homogenized product delivery. This applies to search. In search today we argue that Price is the leading driver. As our result it has become a form of self fulfilling prophecy. We search for product based on price because we can. We dont bother thinking about value because we dont have a way to determine value easily in search.

Many moons ago when my team built a hotel shopping engine - we took the opportunity to provide a form that suited a function that people wanted. The result was that consumers invariably traded up. The suppliers in the shopping engine who provided the lowest priced products and had built their shopping functions around lowest price were a tad ticked off about that.

On the web we have explored almost every version of the 1.0 of price based search - we now need to drive to a different tune. We need to find a way to differentiate and show value. Of course value is a very subjective term. One woman's value is another man's poison.

I think there are a wide number of possible ways to address this. Not least of which is to comprehend what the consumers actually want rather than forcing them down a particular path.

I urge you to read the attached piece from Gerry McGovern this week which addresses this very topic.

Then I want you to and take a LONG HARD LOOK at your product offering and the way you communicate it. Apply the best standards of User Experience (UX) but start from the perspective of looking at what you are doing vs what you hope to achieve.

I think this will start a move to a more appropriate form of dialogue with the customer. In today's Social Media fueled world - failing to do this will cause lots of tears. Even wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Many thanks for reading. I hope that this and my other contributions have been able to improve your product offering and create a better market for Travel Products and Services

Cheers

Should Have Taken The Cash Groupon!

I always try to let you know where I stand on a topic. So here is another one. While I think Groupon is fun - I don't see it as being anything different or ultimately sustainable over the long term. I listened to Groupon COO Rob Solomon at the PhocusWright Conference last year and struggled then to understand what the long term value proposition would be. After all Coupons have been around for a very long time.

Last week Andrew Mason announced to the world that Rob was moving back to God's Country (California). Here is the announcement from the WSJ All-Things-Digital including the email from Mr Mason.

I have a Groupon for Flying Lessons that needs to get used up, it was a Xmas present. Very nice idea. Good way to trial. But in my view that is a niche and it was sustainable only for a short period of time. And now there is more than anecdotal evidence that Groupon is beginning to fade. Indeed there is a lot of chatter deriding Groupon for not taking Google's $1billion. Though judging by the tortuous process that ITA has gone through - the ability to close that deal would be stuck in limbo too.

As reported in Webpronews - Yipit a deal aggregator site has shown that Groupon's revenue for the top 20 US metros has fallen for the second month in a row. With Living Social now in a dead heat with the Chicago based company.

Checking out Google Trends and Alexa - I cant see this trend yet. But I believe we are seeing the turning point of Groupon when its growth curve will max out. I have compared Groupon to 2nd Life in the past as a fad. I think we are seeing that fad peak. We will have coupons forever. They will come in a wide and ever evolving form and some of these will do a cycle and become important again while others decline.

I think that Groupon's model particularly hurts the smaller companies. There is more than a little evidence to support this but you dont need evidence from statistics to know that a 75% reduction in gross revenue for your product is not sustainable.

Thanks and goodnight...

Candidate for The Web's Best Error Message - Air Asia

This week's candidate for the best error message yet comes here:



Enjoy

Cheers

The Googleplex Is The New Libya

This is one of those epiphanies one has when staring at the evidence before you. You can draw the conclusions any which way from Sunday. In my personal opinion Google has co-opted the freedom of the internet and this has resulted in a Libya like state of the electronic world. I believe that Google’s leaders have lost the plot and despite their personal belief system – they have created a monster that has in effect enslaved us all. Dissent is not punished physically but by a form of exile and exclusion. In this post – I will lay out why I think we have reached this state and what should be done about it. Make no mistake there is no individual on the planet save Larry Page or Sergey Brin who can fix this. So it must be up to the collective to deal with it.

Understanding the minds of the Googleplex - and comparing them to the mind of Qaddafi, the world must look at the core principles. Libya's Green Book has the same ring to it as the Google manifesto. OK so I am probably being a bit extreme in comparing Google with Libya however I am steadfast in my belief that the impact on the world at large is indeed far greater with Google than it is with the wild man of Libya.

Although I am an ex-Microsoft person - this should not deter you, dear reader, from understanding why I believe that Google has become a force for evil in the world that today most of us inhabit. We have come to depend on the web and its tools as part of everything that we do. Commercial, Political, Social, etc - all spectrum of the human thought process. Those who have come to guide us have the power to do both good and evil. That can happen overtly, subtly, and by happenstance. Newton's second law needs to be re-written for the web. For every action there is an amazingly complex set of reactions. With this comes respect and responsibility for the power that has been unleashed and that the Googleplex now has in its hands.

For everything that happens - this responsibility has to be maintained ethically. The Googleplex workers believe they are doing good. They appear to act ethically and responsibly. But – that is not enough. The burden of this responsibility must be controlled explicitly. Things cannot be allowed to happen by benign neglect. In the incredibly complex work of the web – the combination of any action has become almost impossible to predict and control. But if you are the gatekeeper then both your own and the actions of those around you become your responsibility. And here is where I believe that Google has failed us all. Accidental evil is no excuse for Google.

In my view Google’s effort’s to drive commercial value has blinded it to its moral responsibilities. The seeds of Google’s fall from grace go back quite far. When Google started to allow an end to separation of church and state by making the Organic results “gamable” at that point Google abrogated its right to control/manage the entry point of the web. Successive governments – admittedly in hindsight – have failed to understand the impact. Perhaps the only government to comprehend the power of Google was China, and we all know how that turned out.

Google is in my view guilty of gaming its own system. The State of Texas surprisingly has the same view. There is a lot of evidence to support this. You dear reader will have to satisfy yourself of this fact. Any evidence I put up will be rubbished but there is enough of it to make me believe this to be the case. But Google has not only increased the ability to game the system – and thence drive more revenue to its coffers – it has done so by making the entry point of the web tighter and tighter. The losers in all this have been the long tail of local and niche providers. Ultimately the consumer must pay. The benefit of having "free" stuff at the expense of "freedom" is not a parallel that should be drawn. The equation is very simple.

Google’s Money Making Power > Any Leveling of the Playing Field

Just picking on 2 recent changes – the imposition of Google Instant – a $1billion bet which has made Google’s power even greater. No one else can match this power. However perhaps the icing on the cake is the deployment of PANDA – Google’s new organic algorithm. I have scoured around looking in Bing, Google and via links to see how the world has assessed the changes. Here is one of the best of the early analysis reports.

However I subscribe to the view that in general the results of the change have favoured the bigger brands at the expense of the smaller players. For a good example go and check out this article in webpronews.com. Also read the comments below the article.

So where do we go from here? I am a capitalist. A Reagan Democrat if you will. I abhor the interference of Government in commerce. But I believe that Google’s power has become matchless. As a result we have to turn to regulation or some other means to control Google. The history of the resulting state after Government intervention in the USA has not always been a good one. If you look at the Bell System - AT&T - and its break up one can see the benefit from a global perspective. We traded ubiquity of service for an explosion of services. And this was mostly good but many people in rural communities have and continue to suffer. Now of course the re-emergence of one of the progeny which set about – recreating the model with the acquisition of T-Mobile USA we are back into oligopoly again. The other example I can point to is Microsoft, one of my Alma Maters. A company that having fought to maintain its independence fell to the burden of trying to demonstrate its compliance. In my view Microsoft should have split as soon as it won the contest with the USA. Now it has lost its leadership role and deservedly so.

Reluctantly I support the effort of the State of Wisconsin, Texas and the European Commission to force a new set of rules on the power of Google. I believe that Google has been given adequate time to put its own house in order and has failed to do so. Strangely enough, I can find no legal reason to deny the acquisition of ITA. However the new framework of the web and its impact on our world – all aspects thereof – demand a new set of constraints and rules for the protection of the individual and the collective. (For an interesting perspective please read this article in the Cornell Law Review)

Yes - I believe we need a new legal theory. However we don’t have one. So the conventional theory has to be applied to the Googleplex. And therefore the only possible result is to term the company a monopoly and break it up.

Regime Change on the web. And now please.

Thanks for reading

Ryanair - In Hotwater Over Lack Of Email Contact Address

Irish Favourite Ryanair may be the butt of a lot of jokes and also the scorn of certain regulatory controls, however in general they do their bit.

Just lately they are back in hot water over the issue of not providing an email contact for their customer service process.

However they are not the only airline to do so.

So just a quick suggestion - you might want to think about being in compliance with EU regs on this topic. Here is the story in all its gory details.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/bargains-and-rip-offs/travel/article.html?in_article_id=524844

Cheers

Timothy

Linked In Reaches 100 Million Users

The emergence of Business Driven Social Commerce has been fascinating to watch. I view this as a positive sign. While there are many pitfalls/hazards and even fraud associated with Social Commerce - I find it far more enjoyable and satisfying than the old hierarchical models of commerce.

I was really interested to get an email from the folks at Linked In. I am officially classified as one of their early adopters - stretching it a bit as my user number was just over 850,000. Puts me into the top 1% of the users who have the service.

Check out the infograph from Linked In.

Shopping Behaviour of US Smartphone Users

A goo piece on understanding the behaviour while shopping in the real world by US Smartphone users.

I think the article is worth a quick read. I will caveat it with one thought. This is sub set behaviour. IE this is of those who reported using their phone while shopping. So the percentage numbers need to be considered in context.

I am particularly encouraged by the percentage of QR code use. This in my view - and I am admitting to being a late convert to the game - one of the cheaper low tech ways to integrate Mobile into your overall strategy. It's well worth looking into.

Indeed HAC - Holland America Corp is one of but many who are also looking at QR codes. Check out this story in TNooz.

Cheers

Join the @Flyscan 24 hour Challenge

No excuses this is for Comic Relief.

Go to Skyscanner and follow the instructions.

Then TWEET away the requests.

If you are hacking and developing a tweet engine to support this - please make sure to keep under the 300 per hour 1000 per day limit.

Cheers

Twitter - matures but end of stellar growth

Just when I seem to get Twitter its huge growth spurt starts to fizzle out.

Using Data from Pew research - eMarketer has found that in fact the use of Twitter is actually quite thin. And its growth will peak this year.

In my view Twitter has evolved into a standardized form of communication that makes great sense for some specific applications particularly for communicating on a multi-level scale. It is great for the one to many and even one to one. The driving force of Twitter was its personal communication but I believe that Facebook has thwarted that. As a result Twitter will evolve more slowly. And in my view that is not a bad thing.

The eMarketer analysis is entitled a look at the true Twitter audience. However I think that the basis of the study is based on the believe that Twitter's chief users are females. I believe that this doesnt equate to the audience in reality.

I think it is important to consider things in context.

Anyway - give the teaser paper a read and then if you feel inclined then buy the report.

Cheers

The Changing Of The Guard - Airports Reflect

Oh dear... the old world received another shocker today. The annual ACI - Airports Council report rankings.
Just look at the numbers. The surge in traffic from the Chinese airports show that the global economy has definitely tilted East.



One of the more dramatic changes has been the surge in traffic in Hong Kong which after 18 years has now toppled the traditional king - Fedex's Memphis.



Old World - read it and weep. New World ditto.

Cheers

Thanks to CAPA for the information and to the NYT for the image of Heathrow.

Have You Good Mobiquette?

OK I admit it... I have done the following:

Snuck a peek at my crackberry sitting in traffic
Read AND written something while walking
Spoken too loudly on a mobile
Left my mobile on when in flight
Not turned mobile to silent mode when asked to...

So am I a bad person

Well most of America thinks so.

Go here and see what the Intel Based Survey found out about Americans and Mobile Etiquette

http://newsroom.intel.com/docs/DOC-1883

Cheers


PS Thanks to Mobile Dog for the image... good one.

Farewell Sidestep

It was a blast but like Pointcast and other services that were desktop add-ons it has gone the way of the Dodo.

Cheers

Oh Dear - Twitter To Restrict 3rd Party Development

One of the joys of Twitter has been its openness in a world where closed services and platforms are the order of the day.

Well it seems no more. Farewell Open Twitter, hello Johnny Appltwitter.

http://www.eweekeurope.co.uk/news/developers-lash-out-against-new-twitter-restrictions-23678

Let's hope enough people put pressure on Twitter to make it change its mind.

And to think I used to really decry Twitter! It only goes to show that one can change ones mind. The change of Twitter from a way to blab mindlessly to a valuable communications based commerce and service tool has changed my point of view.

Cheers

Gaming The Blogging System: Comfort_Hotels Should be Ashamed

Some Time Ago - I noted that a certain hotel in India started to post comments which were not appropriate and designed to act as a free way to promote this hotel.

Well - now I have another hotel - this time in the USA trying to do this as well.

Here is the comment they tried to post thinking that they would get SEO mileage from it:
Comfortsuiteshuntingtonbeach.com is one of the most leading Huntington Beach Hotel & Orange county hotels. Comfortsuiteshuntingtonbeach.com is unique choice in Disneyland hotels for Comfort Suites & memorable Huntington Beach visits.

So @Comfort_Hotels...I hope you are listening because now your chap has pissed me off.

I will also Tweet this so that their corporate brand people can have a taste of this.

Moral of the story - Don't Game The System.... it really isn't nice.

Boeing’s Next Gen Vision

Trying to discern Boeing’s vision for its commercial aircraft line is like trying to read tealeaves. But lets take a little walk through the mind of the collective at Boeing.

Boeing currently has two solid product lines – the 777 where most of the profit lies and the 737 where the volume side of the business lies. The 3 other current lines are not quite so well off. The 787’s issues are well known and will eventually be solved. The 747 is enjoying a boost in its career but whether or not the market for large aircraft will be split profitably between Boeing 747 and Airbus A380 remains a question. Both aircraft are running at very low production rates.

That leaves us with where do we go from here.

Boeing is committed long term to maintain both the 767 and the 737. The former represents a Pyrrhic victory over Airbus for the tanker. Which in the view of EADS was bid below cost. Well its going to be there for a very long time arguably 20 years or even longer. The same can be said of the 737 even if Boeing does introduce a new twin aisle replacement (See the image for a patent filed by Boeing) to be announced in June at the Paris air show. The problem will be that the P3 program will run for another 20 years in my view and as a result so will the venerable airframe. Boeing has acknowledged the same by saying the 737-800 and 900 variants will remain in production “if the market wants them”. With Boeing boosting rates to the highest level ever – there is now a new level of fragility in the supply chain.

What does the world order for Boeing look like if all this comes to pass? It means that Boeing will be supporting MORE production lines not less. So synergies will be flying out the window.

Everett – 777, 747, 767 tanker 787 line 1
Renton – 737 legacy
South Carolina – 787 Line 2
TBD 737 Next

That is 6 production lines vs today’s 5. Further Boeing will be producing 787s in 2 lines at opposite ends of the country. The SC facility will be cheaper and more efficient as it will be closer to other Boeing manufacturing facilities. In my view a situation that will be unsustainable come the next recession.

So where will the 737 Replacement be built? At the present time the assumption will not be Renton. Boeing has sold off much of the surrounding land around the plant and has made no bones about the fact it wants to relocate to – lets say Everett. If however they do keep it in Renton then they will face a big problem. With only 3 possible production lines and one closed off to the military with the P3 program effectively there will not be a full facility or room to run a full 3 line production line for the new aircraft that will be needed to match Boeing’s market estimates by the time 2030 rolls around when the new aircraft will be in full production at peak. Therefore either the new line locates up to Everett or goes somewhere else. Either way its not going to be pretty.

Allegiant's Answer To Rising Oil Pricess - Flexible Fares

Allegiant has a new wrinkle on the whole pricing thing.

Dealing with different pricing models has proved to be difficult for everyone. Most of all the new pricing models dont give you exactly what you want to know.

IE what is the minimum price. Since the nice people who write laws are happy to pursue people who transgress rather than writing sensible laws... no one seems to be dealing with the problem correctly.

Other markets that have complicated products have the same issue and create a pricing model that is clear. Cars do it ... even educated houses do it. My answer would be for someone to state what a minimum price really means. IE what is the price you could get on a plane for. Then there is the equivalent "nicely equipped price" model.

Getting back to Allegiant - the plucky travel company that has planes, their idea is to let you pay for a ticket in the usual format but also to enter into a risk contract with the airline betting if the price will go up or down.

Its a good idea and someone should really look into it.

Anyway read the article from the WSJ.

And Y'all hurry back now d'ya hear!

Travelport Offloads GTA to Kuoni for $720 Million

Travelport has managed to offload one of the albatrosses around its neck with the sale of GTA to Kuoni.

GTA has been a step child in the Travelport organization since the creation of Travelport out of the Ashes of the Cendant empire. The synergies long hoped for never quite materialized.

With Amadeus shedding non-core businesses and now down to the twin pillars of Airline IT and GDS, Travelport finds itself as a one trick pony. Well not quite if you include the bizarre purchase of SPRICE.

GTA has always been a somewhat uncomfortable member of the family. Now it is going to a new home with perhaps an opportunity for Kuoni to restore some lustre to the once high flying traditional brand.

In my view don't look to Sabre to spin out Synxis any time soon. The big 4 GDS companies are still holding onto their cash cow businesses. This divestiture allows the core of the business to be judged on its merits - good or bad of the purity of the GDS model. Then of course there is still that small matter of their 48% shareholding in Orbitz Worldwide.

Cheers

Ryanair - Looking At All Options

Ryanair is not letting the moss grow under its feet. Having been spurned by Boeing while it ponders what to do with its aging 737 - clearly Airbus is not biting yet either with the A320NEO; so what other options does the spunky Irish LCC have at its disposal?

Well the answer is several.

At the moment there is no need for either of the two big boys to play the Two Michaels game. With Fuel Prices at nearing historical heights due to the conflicts in the Middle East Region - there are many others looking to cut deals to meet Ryanair's demands for a low cost aircraft. Remember that Ryanair is still shopping a 300 plane order. Probably the largest order for jet aircraft ever. As I wrote in January this is a story that will run for a bit.

So now the Michael Crawley (Ryanair #2 man) has hinted at the Russians or the Chinese as options. The Bombardier or the Embraer aircraft are likely to be a bit too small for the pack 'em in crowd.

So I have a suggestion - and I am prepared to throw my hat into the ring with another idea.

Re-engining Low Time MD80/90s and B717s with a GTF engine. There is a huge number of these aircraft. The total cost of this process would be about half of the new aircraft in small numbers - in volume the savings could rise to about 60% or more for a fuel load penalty of perhaps 10 - 5% over the existing 737NGs. Another factor in its favour is that they come in varying size which would enable FR to serve additional smaller markets. I thought about 737 Classics and NGs but the cost to re-engine these machines while attractive requires the addition of fixing the undercarriage which has so far stumped some of the best minds.

Just a thought.

Cheers

When a Blogger Courts Attention - a Cautionary Tale - and a Promise.

With thanks to one of the Professors for bringing this story to my attention.

There is a Blogger who seems to have led a rather charmed life and done an incredible amount of things. At least by his own reports. The web has a way of exposing the truth. And lord knows we are all guilty of transgressions (and yes I am a sinner). But so far no one has started a blog that specifically targets me personally for something I may or may not have done. But it seems this blogger in question has done just that.

So I bring this cautionary tale to my adoring readers (you do adore me don't you! ;-) as what happens when you upset the delicate atmosphere of the Blogsphere.

The blogger in question is Flying with Fish. He has apparently transgressed so badly that he now has his own site of detractors. He has even done something so bad as to have had his Twitter account suspended (and then reinstated).

I bring this to the Professor's readers so that we can know that when you do something that other people don't like for what ever reason then you had better be prepared to accept the consequences. Social Media has some really great attributes but it is still the wild west. Journalistic ethics are often ignored and never enforced. in my view one must be careful as to what you say and how you express it.

This blog is about opinion. I cover a narrow area related to Aviation Travel and Tourism. Note that I also write for other sites and have to conform to their principles and guidelines. Everyone should always try and stick to the moral high ground. Spelling and Grammar may occasionally be off the mark - and for that I will apologize.

But let us all do what is the right thing. We need to stick to being good and doing no evil and decidedly not to target others for our own personal gain or profit. Dear Reader know that I will try and do that and continue to bring the thousands of you who read this blog the best that I can. On that you have my word.

Cheers

The Battle for Video Standards puts Google as The White Knight - but is that a good thing?

I am never happy with the big guy and usually in favour of the little guy. There is now a battle royal brewing over the standards of video on the web that you and I watch every day.

Frankly I detest the idea of patent hoarders (greenmail is the nicest thing you can say about the process). But also I recognize the importance of Intellectual Property and its protection.

IP is governed by an imperfect set of rules and regulations. Not least of which because IP is so easily transported across jurisdictions and the legal systems do not match that. So to say that the law has not kept up is an understatement.

I wont bore you with the details - the WSJ has done a good enough job of explaining the battle between the current collective standard representing some 1700 Patents that are collectively the high-definition video encoding standard known as H.264. Google is promoting the alternative as VP8 for which it paid $125 million.

The issue is whether anyone should be allowed to control video. Clearly Google didn't buy the standard just for altruistic reasons. So there is no reason to pity the poor little rich boys and girls at the Googleplex. But this has become political with now the politicians stepping into the game to ask the question as to whether there is funny business going on between the collective managed by the MPEG LA group and Google.

Tsk Tsk - I dont think the law should get involved in this fight. This is a no harm crime at the moment. Google can take its knocks. Let them use some of the rest of their cash pile to address the issue. And then leave our politicians alone to do their usual work of stuffing the general populace.

Cheers

Olympic Comes Out Swinging Against the EC

Olympic was initially thwarted in its proposed merger with Aegean. Now it has made its response clear.

It is pulling back from highly competitive markets and moving instead to bolster its near and domestic market.

As reported in Flight, they will close several major routes including London, Vienna Brussels and Paris. This essentially means that the former national Greek carrier has retrenched from most Western Europe markets with the exception of Amsterdam.

This is somewhat sad as OA was once the pride of Greece.

The Case For Consumer Protection UK vs Australia

There is a certain amount of cheering going on as a result of the IRISH (that is not a misprint) beating the English at Cricket in the World Cup. The shock defeat was not due to just poor performance by the English - but rather a stunning performance by the minnows from the Emerald Isle. Congrats to the Pink Haired Mr Kevin O'Brien.

Given the relative approaches to cricket and travel from the British Isles to the Antipodes it is interesting to see the difference between the level of consumer protection provided in the Northern Hemisphere and that in the South.

An consultation paper entitled "Consumer protection in the travel and travel related services market" A Consultation paper dated March 2011
was commission by the Canberra Government and found that the regulatory cost of consumer protection and travel licensing in Australia is nine times the value of compensation paid to consumers each year, the independent report into financial protection has found.

In the UK the nature of the Consumer Protection has been in disarray for many years and successive governments have passed the buck. The result has been that the coverage for travel in the UK is poor and essentially the fund covering it is in deep deficit. Yet at the same time a string of Her Majesty's Administrations has taxed and levied costs against the air traveller. The current cost for a family of four to travel between the UK and Australia is close to a thousand pounds of APD - Air Passenger Duty. The latest proposals by HMG have managed to please just about no one.

So a little advice for the Government of Ms Gillard - free, no charge - don't change it. Keen the high level of the cost structure you have in place today. If you do you will be sorry. However there are some good recommendations in the report.

REPOST on SQ and Paypal

Professor Andy B was a bit challenged today and left this as a comment. So I have deleted it there (Because he doesn't speak Gaellic) and am posting it here as a complete item on its own. The question he poses is valid. And at the end - please read my answer....



Team.....,

I don't usually bother sending on the daily industry e-mail updates, as I assume you mostly also see what I see.

But this one is interesting - is it a signal that the march by IATA / legacy carriers towards direct distribution is gathering pace, perhaps?

Technlogy News
SIA PASSENGERS TO PAY VIA PAYPAL
Singapore Airlines customers in the US, Singapore Malaysia, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, Australia are now able to pay for their flights with PayPal on Singaporeair.com.
The plan is to add more countries to the Paypal options which will make this the largest collaboration between PayPal and an Asian carrier.
A year-long global marketing campaign will be launched to celebrate the collaboration between Singapore Airlines and PayPal.

I know that American is leading the move to DD in the US market. Are they into offering Paypal as a direct settlement channel yet?

There is a consultants argument (really based on a re-cycling of domino theory, from the 60's..) that, without the prior existence of Paypal, then E-Bay could never have grown in size to be the force that it now is.......

--
brgds

AndyB.


Andy most US airlines already have Paypal. Northwest I think was the first - followed by Southwest and now almost all airlines operating domestically support it. it works just fine and I use it for Southwest bookings because its faster. (Its linked also to my WN credit card).

Cheers

The Professor

Willie Walsh: Hey Branson nach bhfuil rud ar bith do bhranda fiú

Rough translation:

Hey Richard Branson your Virgin brand is worth squat but I will take your slots.

I didn't think it was appropriate to translate the rest of his statements...

However if you would like to read them in English go here:

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/02/24/353562/iag-very-interested-in-virgin-but-only-for-slots.html

Cheers

New JAL Logo Looks Mighty Like the Old Old One

The Crane is back!

Compare this to an old JAL logo on a DC10 Model.

US OTA Transactions decline in January

There will be a fair amount of spin going on about this news.

ARC's January 2011 detailed breakdown of transactions shows a decline in Online Travel Agency activity when compared to last year.

After the significant jumps in 2010 over 2011 - we can expect a moderating level of activity but the fall was unexpected.

Clearly something is going on.

One can expect that with Orbitz and Expedia both making up a high percentage of the US OTA market and both having lowered or reduced activity on AA that there would be some effect. But I think that the fall is higher than I would have anticipated when compared to the over sectors of the market. (Corporate and general retail).

I think that the impact of the OTA's battle with AA and the resultant shift to meta search traffic sites such as Kayak and of course to AA direct is now becoming apparent.

Next month's traffic with things becoming stabilized will be an interesting statistic

Cheers

Priority and Focus - Top Tasks

This week's Gerry McGovern's Blog covers the issue of Top Tasks.

In travel websites are often a dog's dinner of competing issues. The bigger the site the crappier it gets. Defining the relative value of the top tasks actually helps define the priority for what goes onto the website. Worse the results from a search is often poor. Yes we should all 'fess up to the issues of bad cache and screwy results we have allowed in order to get speed.

In the early days of website design - we would try and make guesses for the consumers and then ask them what they thought of our guesses. Now we should clearly see what the top tasks are and they should always be on the website and available. There is nothing that you cannot add to the home page but don't forget your knitting and don't put obstacles in the way of the customer getting what he wants. Remember the reasons he arrived at the website in the first place. If you game him he will hate you for it.

One critical factor we are starting to see is that the abandonment rate for "fares promos" is growing. Its a slight trend. Mostly because consumers have been so trained to respond to fares and then going through the laborious process of matching a fare to availability. (Not to mention all the resultant failures and junk that comes with it because of the clunky way Air and other Travel products are managed).

In an App filled world this is not going to be tolerated. I believe we are going to see a shift towards better trusted results. Anyone not jumping on that bandwagon will be crushed. Speed vs Quality - tough choice?

You have been warned

Cheers

Think Different - REALLY Different

You have to see this Geek video.

Amazing stuff

http://www.flixxy.com/solar-highways

So Who Blinked First?

Did Travelport blink or did AA?

Clearly AA moved first which gave the opportunity for Travelport to save some face.

However you have to wonder if this was a back door deal?

Either way - its good news for agents all round. But do remember boys and girls - this is a truce not the end of the war.

Cheers

http://www.tnooz.com/2011/02/16/news/american-airlines-drops-agent-fare-surcharge-over-travelport-row/

Back To The Future - QF's Avoiding Using The F Word

A really interesting commentary in the Sydney Morning Herald today. (Since the Professor is visiting Oz)

It concerns Qantas acquiring a certain - somewhat aged plane type from a now defunct but much celebrated Dutch airframe manufacturer.

Since he probably had to wince at the fact that the planes are powered by Rolls Royce - Mr Alan Joyce the Irish CEO of Qantas was being very careful with his words.

Press the link to see the article. It needs no embellishment from me.

G'day!

Nervous Eyes On EXPE and OWW Monday Morning

After a rather calamitous collapse of both Expedia and Orbitz on Friday Feb 11th - all eyes will be on those stocks.

With a significant downgrade from Deutsche Bank last week - the midnight oil is probably being burned in Chicago and Bellevue.

With Amadeus announcing it was finally getting out of the Online World - but at a decent price - then surely OWW and EXPE should have been winners. Opodo is but a fraction of EXPE's traffic and clout.

PCLN is continuing to grow in stature and value.

And what of the airlines?



The airlines are trading pretty much as a group - other than United who seems to be the breakout guy.

Clearly when taken in context - the airlines and OTAs battle is not going unnoticed by the stock market.

Nail Biting time

Cheers

US Travel Up But Still Below Historic Highs

The US world of travel is growing again. We are seeing better numbers than last year. However we are still below the historic highs of 2006, 2007 and 2008.

ARC's numbers are looking healthy. Remember there are a couple of interesting elements you need to consider.

Ancillaries - those evil things - are hardly reflected in here as the revenue is currently only collected by the airline directly not via ARC.

The percentage of direct revenue is back to increasing. It has hovered at around 50% in recent months. Anecdotal evidence says that American experienced an increase in direct traffic as a percentage measurement of total sales. How that did compared to other airlines will have to be seen.

Finally the increase Y/Y is not as rosy as perhaps it could be. This is both a good sign and a bad sign. On the plus side it shows continuing restraint by the airlines. The bad news is that the passengers are not diving into their wallets and splashing out the cash.

So another year of a certain degree of uncertainty is ahead.

Cheers

Email Marketing Budgets Race Ahead

Well this is going to be a banner year for someone. Sadly probably not the traditional media.

Latest figures out indicate that despite getting somewhat tired - email marketing will see an increase in its budgets and not by a bit. 41% will show an increase of 10% or greater with only single digit estimating their budgets will decline.

For more details go across to Marketing Sherpa.

Cheers

The Dark Side Of Search

I think about search a lot these days. At dinner last night with some friends who have nothing to do with Travel - I tried to explain the issue of how search engine optimization affects what they do. When I got to a web browser to illustrate it - they were shocked.

We all know that Search is both good and well not so good.

I really hate the fact that it is SO EASY to game search. The various investigations of the Googleplex demonstrate that Google has a hard time providing true and unbiased search. In deference to the boys and girls there - this is NOT easy.

But I think we should all get to understand the reality that Search is being gamed - both legally (White hat) and illegally (black hat).

Oh yes - you guessed it - who gets to decide what is legal is of course Google - our very own 21st Century version of Big Brother.

So read this article from the New York Times it is very good

Cheers

For Valentines Day - 10 Reasons Why Luggage Beats Partners

So I will admit to being a bit of a softie.

When Professor Pamela of Cloud 12 PR send this to me - I could not resist it. And I am not one to actually to promote a product but for this time I will make an exception. You will have to find your own way to the company's website though ;-)

Cheers

Below are 10 of the reasons buying or gifting a high quality bag is a better emotional investment than embarking on yet another relationship:

1. Love doesn’t always last. Briggs and Riley luggage does.

2. You can rest assured that good luggage will not unzip when it shouldn’t.

3. Overstuffed luggage will never ask you if it looks fat

4. Your mother will always approve of good luggage

5. You can shut good luggage up and it will stay shut

6. Good luggage is always available for an impromptu romantic vacation

7. Good luggage actually makes your life easier

8. Good luggage won’t look you up on Facebook ten years from now

9. Good luggage will look as good on your 20 year anniversary as it did the day you bought it

10. Till death do us part is sort of morbid. A lifetime warranty isn’t.

Briggs and Riley offers the strongest guarantee in the industry. Simple as that®.
The guarantees that other brands offer have limits. Ours doesn’t. Our lifetime performance guarantee covers ordinary wear and tear, airline damage and is good on every bag we make.

The Nokia Burning Platform Memo

With special thanks to Professor Stephan for sending me the entire memo.

There is every now and then a seminal event that points out - usually the obvious - a basic truth. For as long as I can recall - Nokia was the platform of choice for Mobile. Nokia was an incredible company that made a huge bet on mobile and basically junked its other businesses in the 1990s because they realized they could not make it in a world populated by cheap clones - PCs and TV/Screens. Well it seems that they forgot the very lessons that got them to where they are today. History seems to be repeating itself.

So are their lessons in Travel? I really think so. I spoke to several of my former colleagues over the past week during the Travel Technology show in Earls Court London. I think some of them might still call me a friend - others not!

The memo from the new CEO of Nokia Stephen Elop could just as easily be written by the CEO of any one of the legacy GDSs except for one thing. They are still making money hand over fist.

BTW in terms of context - this was released before Nokia announced it was partnering with Microsoft to solve the Symbian problem. I am not sure that they have done themselves any favours.

So read this email and especially if you are working for a GDS and ask yourself what happened to your TRUE innovation. Then head the warnings. If you think you are doing the good job and you are totally in sync with your market - then ignore this and pay no attention at all. However if you are REALLY switched on - then compare the event at the show THack and then look at yourself in the mirror and tell me you are not just a tiny bit afraid...

You should be

Cheers

The email follows...


Hello there,

There is a pertinent story about a man who was working on an oil platform in the North Sea. He woke up one night from a loud explosion, which suddenly set his entire oil platform on fire. In mere moments, he was surrounded by flames. Through the smoke and heat, he barely made his way out of the chaos to the platform's edge. When he looked down over the edge, all he could see were the dark, cold, foreboding Atlantic waters.

As the fire approached him, the man had mere seconds to react. He could stand on the platform, and inevitably be consumed by the burning flames. Or, he could plunge 30 meters in to the freezing waters. The man was standing upon a "burning platform," and he needed to make a choice.

He decided to jump. It was unexpected. In ordinary circumstances, the man would never consider plunging into icy waters. But these were not ordinary times - his platform was on fire. The man survived the fall and the waters. After he was rescued, he noted that a "burning platform" caused a radical change in his behaviour.

We too, are standing on a "burning platform," and we must decide how we are going to change our behaviour.

Over the past few months, I've shared with you what I've heard from our shareholders, operators, developers, suppliers and from you. Today, I'm going to share what I've learned and what I have come to believe.

I have learned that we are standing on a burning platform.

And, we have more than one explosion - we have multiple points of scorching heat that are fuelling a blazing fire around us. For example, there is intense heat coming from our competitors, more rapidly than we ever expected. Apple disrupted the market by redefining the smartphone and attracting developers to a closed, but very powerful ecosystem.

In 2008, Apple's market share in the $300+ price range was 25 percent; by 2010 it escalated to 61 percent. They are enjoying a tremendous growth trajectory with a 78 percent earnings growth year over year in Q4 2010. Apple demonstrated that if designed well, consumers would buy a high-priced phone with a great experience and developers would build applications. They changed the game, and today, Apple owns the high-end range.

And then, there is Android. In about two years, Android created a platform that attracts application developers, service providers and hardware manufacturers. Android came in at the high-end, they are now winning the mid-range, and quickly they are going downstream to phones under €100. Google has become a gravitational force, drawing much of the industry's innovation to its core.

Let's not forget about the low-end price range. In 2008, MediaTek supplied complete reference designs for phone chipsets, which enabled manufacturers in the Shenzhen region of China to produce phones at an unbelievable pace. By some accounts, this ecosystem now produces more than one third of the phones sold globally - taking share from us in emerging markets.

While competitors poured flames on our market share, what happened at Nokia? We fell behind, we missed big trends, and we lost time. At that time, we thought we were making the right decisions; but, with the benefit of hindsight, we now find ourselves years behind.

The first iPhone shipped in 2007, and we still don't have a product that is close to their experience. Android came on the scene just over 2 years ago, and this week they took our leadership position in smartphone volumes. Unbelievable.

We have some brilliant sources of innovation inside Nokia, but we are not bringing it to market fast enough. We thought MeeGo would be a platform for winning high-end smartphones. However, at this rate, by the end of 2011, we might have only one MeeGo product in the market.

At the midrange, we have Symbian. It has proven to be non-competitive in leading markets like North America. Additionally, Symbian is proving to be an increasingly difficult environment in which to
develop to meet the continuously expanding consumer requirements, leading to slowness in product development and also creating a disadvantage when we seek to take advantage of new hardware platforms. As a result, if we continue like before, we will get further and further behind, while our competitors advance further and further ahead.

At the lower-end price range, Chinese OEMs are cranking out a device much faster than, as one Nokia employee said only partially in jest, "the time that it takes us to polish a PowerPoint presentation." They are fast, they are cheap, and they are challenging us. And the truly perplexing aspect is that we're not even fighting with the right weapons. We are still too often trying to approach each price range on a device-to-device basis.

The battle of devices has now become a war of ecosystems, where ecosystems include not only the hardware and software of the device, but developers, applications, ecommerce, advertising, search, social applications, location-based services, unified communications and many other things. Our competitors aren't taking our market share with devices; they are taking our market share with an entire ecosystem. This means we're going to have to decide how we either build, catalyse or join an ecosystem.

This is one of the decisions we need to make. In the meantime, we've lost market share, we've lost mind share and we've lost time.

On Tuesday, Standard & Poor's informed that they will put our A long term and A-1 short term ratings on negative credit watch. This is a similar rating action to the one that Moody's took last week. Basically it means that during the next few weeks they will make an analysis of Nokia, and decide on a possible credit rating downgrade. Why are these credit agencies contemplating these changes? Because they are concerned about our competitiveness.

Consumer preference for Nokia declined worldwide. In the UK, our brand preference has slipped to 20 percent, which is 8 percent lower than last year. That means only 1 out of 5 people in the UK prefer Nokia to other brands. It's also down in the other markets, which are traditionally our strongholds: Russia, Germany, Indonesia, UAE, and on and on and on.

How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world around us evolved?

This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some of it has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive times. We had a series of misses. We haven't been delivering innovation fast enough. We're not collaborating internally.

Nokia, our platform is burning.

We are working on a path forward -- a path to rebuild our market leadership. When we share the new strategy on February 11, it will be a huge effort to transform our company. But, I believe that together, we can face the challenges ahead of us. Together, we can choose to define our future.

The burning platform, upon which the man found himself, caused the man to shift his behaviour, and take a bold and brave step into an uncertain future. He was able to tell his story. Now, we have a great opportunity to do the same.

Stephen.

Saturday Frivolity

The Professor still hates Twitter but has learned to appreciate it.

So today's joke should be funny for all. With special thanks to Professor Paul for sending it on to me.

A man walks in to the doctors and says,
"Doctor, doctor, I think I'm addicted to Twitter".
The doctor looks at him and says,
"Sorry, I don't follow you".

Bu buoom....

Shhhh. More Reasons Not to Buy the Verizon iPhone

Perhaps I am being too hard on the devil's instrument.

You might recall my post last week on the second source for iPhones now coming from Verizon.

In the post I mentioned that there were some issues....

Well here are a few more.

Even though CDMA has the potential to go faster for the device... well its not really. According to several studies on the phone by journalists lucky enough to get their fingers on it - its a bit faster. Just not by much.

But here is another thought. You CANNOT do VOICE and DATA TOGETHER unless you are hooked up to wifi.

So you will need to make sure that you are in a good place with wifi (preferably for free) and your CDMA works for Voice. THEN you can multi task.

Wow that would be a great feature for the AT&T version or when roaming internationally. Oh but wait... you can't do that - CMDA doesn't work outside of the USA (except in VERY rare occasions).

OOOpppp might want to think again about that nice idea.

Cheers

Are We Reaching Saturation In Transformation To Digital Media

There are a number of interesting trends that I follow. At the moment I believe we are starting to see a point of saturation in the adoption of digital media.

One of the stats I saw recently gave me pause for thought. The numbers in my view didn't make a lot of sense.



So I did a bit of poking around. This study is from Strata media. So the numbers for TV seem to be a bit high. Then you realize who owns them. Comcast.

So in my view these numbers are skewed against digital. So I would think that digital is already higher in value.

Perhaps now is the time to consider what happens when the rest of the world bails from the traditional media outlets and piles into digital. In my view this will be a bad thing especially for the smaller guy. Good of course for the Googleplex and the big digital properties such as Facebook.

UGH!!!

Cheers

Shhhh Don't Tell Anyone But Verizon has run out of iPhones and....

Well the running out was common knowledge. However you might want to think carefully about signing up for the service if you travel outside the country.

Why/

2 reasons - first one is that Verizon's main network will be the current version not the new LTE (we all have to wait for iphone 5 for that) which is GSM compatible.

And the other... well - just ask anyone who has an iPhone what its like to travel outside the USA.

The devil's instrument it is....

Cheers

Airline Dodge the First Bullet

WAY Baaaaaak when the debate over Ancillary Services started. I made a noise about the issue of Ancillaries actually costing the Government money.

It seems that at least someone was listening to the old Professor.

However it seems that the IRS ruled first that these services are not part of the ticket which set the scene for a government money grab. Well the airlines have dodged the first bullet.

Sen. Max Baucus one of the senators from the Great State of Montana says FAA bill won't include bag-fee tax. The Government Accountability Office said that a tax on baggage fees charged by airlines could raise roughly $240 million each year for the Airport and Airway Trust Fund. The Senator is chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, he said that he will not propose such a tax as part of a bill reauthorizing the Federal Aviation Administration.

Dont expect this situation to last that long. I am sure that there are many States who are looking at this from a revenue perspective. With the DoT now in the process of finding ways to monitor the ancillaries - we can be assured that as soon as they figure this out - they will indeed then work out a way to tax it.

Cheers



With thanks to ChukyPita for the great image


The sure things in life are death and taxes.

So You Think Social Media Is Important?

According to a study released in January 2011 from the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth Center for Marketing Research, those who try Social Media - seem to like it and now the importance has spread mainstream with the following chart as provided by eMarketer.


Well it would seem you are in good company.

What still bothers me a little is that while we move from eCommerce to F-Commerce or is it SM-Commerce - in my view we are moving towards more and more near or actual real time commerce.

Great - BUT.... will the back end systems (which is my specialty) keep up? The truth is out there somewhere - but the legacy systems model of contract based agreements as opposed to real time technologies will come under a lot of pressure. The ability of cache to be real and accurate with trust - becomes a lot harder.

I have opined before that the demands of Social Media based commerce and individualized results is a recipe for disaster for legacy systems. This seems to get confirmed at every turn. Last year - at the OTA meeting in Seattle - the CTO for Pegasus demonstrated how search is driving more and more transactions but not driving more sales or profit. Indeed the corollary is true. The harder the user searches to get better pricing the lower the yield and the greater the cost of the transaction.

Anyone still stuck in the legacy world - (are you listening GDSs) - and not paying attention to this issue is either guilty of monopolistic or ostrich behaviour. Possibly both.

The emergence of next generation FIND vs explicit search demands better back end infrastructure.

And yes - the emerging companies get this. Those who are sticking to the old model. Your time is up. Time for you to get out of the way... and close the door on the way out.

Cheers




With special thanks to the Dr Who Tardis money box. http://gadgetsin.com/uploads/2010/09/doctor_who_tardis_money_bank_2.jpg

Happy Year Of The Rabbit

Best to all of you.

Happy New Year!

Exploiting "Like" Is A Slippery Slope.

Call me old fashioned - but when I like something, it should have meaning and be relevant and something that represents a real attribute.

In today's somewhat hedonistic environment where subtlety and nuance have been replaced by quantity over quality and arbitrary measurements of both - the word LIKE has become a victim to over use in the same way that - well - Windows has.

Until now I didn't pay attention to things like (meaning similar to) the "Like" button on Facebook. To me the misuse was abundantly clear. People are sitting there clicking the "Like" button like chimpanzees in the zoo. Click the button and you get something. The Pavlovian response becomes a normal conditioned response rather than a meaningful expression of human emotion.

However the use of the "Like" button has become part of the mechanism of relevance. Another component of the "Gaming" of the system of search that reduces our human ability to express ourselves in ways that - shall we say define our humanism. IE what differentiates us from a machine.

Don't believe me?

On December 15th 2010,amongst many Bing announcements that day - the Search Division of Microsoft announced even deeper integration of Facebook data into Bing’s search results and rankings. Up to this point Bing had integrated “liked” content from Facebook into its search results in a distinct content areas. The change was that now it was using the "Like" as a general criteria for ranking. Further the only viable Google Search alternative now openly states that your friends’ Facebook activity will be “influencing ranking on Bing and will lead to personalized search rankings.”

As several analysts point out the basic risk here is that social media “gaming” will lead to clutter in Bing’s search results. Not only that (clutter) but also all the bots and scripts - malicious or benign - will now skew results. While this is supposed to be just an opt-in feature and disconnecting your Facebook account with Bing turns off the addition of “likes” in your Bing search results - we all know that the default situation is to leave it turned on and results will again be skewed permanently. Or at least until the geniuses in Redmond try another feature to out Google Google or simply because they were bored that day and had nothing else to do now that stock clock watching has ceased to have any meaning on the Campus astride the 520 Freeway.

Not to be outdone - the droids from the Googleplex confirmed that they too were happily using Facebook, Twitter and other social media services to influence their rankings.

Thanks to Professor Paul for pointing out perhaps the drivers for this. It took me a little while to cotton on - but after looking at the latest financials from Google it starts to make sense. Google is seeing basic search as a declining share of their gross revenues. With about as much ad revenue sucked from the traditional media as has already converted - social media and social "ad dollars" are where the growth action is. (Chart courtesy of eMarketer).



To me this is all very scary. I see that the human levels of emotion - ranging from love to hate are being turned into machine comprehensible elements. Thus in turn making machines more easily capable to replicate human activity. Let's face it the machine already has an advantage. In this phase of human development unlike any other development before it - we do not have the power to harness the result. Consider previous developments: Fire, speed etc. in each of those cases the human intellect was able to master the power unleashed and contain it. This time the actual power unleashed is synthetic intellect. Dumbed down into forms that the machine can demonstrate its superiority we are now at the disadvantage of the machine who has infinite memory and ordering capability. Reducing our humanism to facsimiles of differentiated components such as love and hate, heart and soul if you will then synthesizing these factors into the "wisdom" of the crowd reduces our ability to display the uniqueness of our true ourselves.

And if nothing else it means we will now be guaranteed to lose in Jeopardy and Alex Trebak will not be needed either. Click on the link to see the wired story on how IBM's SuperComputer Watson will compete against two of the winning-est contestants of the American Game Show.


And this is why it makes me sad (human emotion) and just a little scared.

Er. cheers?

The Bright Spot In the US Economy - TRAVEL!!!

Gary Locke (who used to be the Gosvenor of the Great State of Washington (where I live) was yesterday touting the benefits of Travel and Tourism to the US Economy.

At a meeting of the Commerce Department's Travel and Tourism Advisory Board today, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke announced a 47 percent surge in the travel and tourism trade surplus in 2010; the surplus now exceeds $28 billion. The United States welcomed more than 55 million international visitors during the first 11 months of 2010, 11.4 million more visitors than the year before. While international visitation increased 10 percent, international visitor spending increased 11 percent to $122.7 billion. The travel and tourism industry employs nearly 8 million people across the United States.

While the airlines have been cutting back to the extent that only 500K people work for US airlines with a smattering of other foreign carriers - that makes Airlines total employment about 6% of the total.

Even adding back in the GDS staffers - it doesn't do a heck of a lot for the market. But the burgeoning IT businesses will bring some entrepreneurship to the market. Provided of course that this is not stifled by some insane notions of transparency.

Cheers

And The Bad Boy Winner - By a Hair?

American Airlines

The vote tally was as follows:

In who is the bad boy in the Orbitz dispute:

AA 55%
Expedia 16%
Orbitz 16%
Travelport 50%

The audience has spoken.

Check out my latest poll. Bundled vs Unbundled... not your typical options

Cheers

ANZ's 5000 Quid Boat Anchors aka Skycouches

Air New Zealand has been pretty aggressive in the Social Media space. They have also been a very innovative airline. Their Skycouch idea (or should it be Sky Chaise?) product has been much promoted.

But the Professor was less than enthused when I first saw some pictures of it. And nothing that has been written has made me any more enthusiastic about the concept. Exactly one year ago today (Jan 31st 2010) I wrote a less than complimentary review of the product.

Now the pricing for the product has been revealed. There are some gasps and shock on the pricing. None other than Business Traveller (yes 2 Ls) the UK magazine and advocate for the premium frequent flyer has just written a review of the price.

Ooops.

It seems that the pricing is rather more than even the most optimistic player was expecting. Remember that in 2009 NZ was offering a RTW fare for less than 500 pounds.

As one comment opined - they are going to be lightly used and then gone the way of Airline Ash Trays.

I have a sneaking suspicion that this person may just be right. What is somewhat sad is that the other innovation the Premium Economy product is pretty good and better than many a business class product.

As this picture shows - the real problem. Here is an attractive person trying out the new seat with her feet dangling in the aisle. Well those of us who regularly fly know that is a huge No No. The seat is just not going to be that comfy.

But now let's think. Will NZ start offering premium service to those who buy these seats?

I can just hear the boarding announcements.

"Ladies and Gentlemen (with a slight Kiwi Twang) Welcome to NZ1 we will be boarding the flight today by priority.

We would like to invite our passengers seated in the Business Premier Cabin first,

We would like to invite our Koru club members next.

Our Star Alliance partners - sorry but all the variations are so many that just look at your card and as long as its any type other than silver or does not have a colour in it then you can board next. Please go to the door marked 'Special'

Next if you are on United's Code Share flight and you thought you were getting that extra 5 inches of leg room - you can now board. WAIT FOR IT.... WHERE ARE YOU GOING SIR - I HAVEN'T TOLD YOU WHICH DOOR YET....Anyone who has a Star Alliance card of any type including those of you who bought Premier Status on United for more than $1300 - you can join the door marked "Bovine Use Only".

I would now like to invite those travelling with certified children under the age of 5 to now board.

Any of you over 65 or just need a little extra time waddling down the jetway - your turn.

Now those of you who paid WAY too much for the Poofy seats aka the Sky Counches. You may board while I try to keep a straight face. And don't expect any metal on your meal tray. And yes you too can join through the door marked Bovine. Right about now it should be a bit tight and smelling nicely ripe in there.

Finally anyone left? No? Good now we can go"

Cheers

Hold The Presses - Fox News Moves Egypt

Fox News that well known arbiter of public taste and of course knowledge has decided to elevate its role in the world and is now redrawing world maps.

Here is the latest image of the middle east.

Thanks Mr Murdoch for increasing my understanding of the world geo-politics. Thanks to Professor Kevin for providing this valuable insight

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Here They Come - Fuel Surcharges

We have been expecting this for some time.

So far there has been no formal effort. However most airlines via ATPCo have in place YQ/YR surcharges. These have been edging up as the price of oil rises.

Now JetBlue has become first of the US pack to formally raise the surcharge.

Rest assured - they will not be the last

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Brits are now largely online lookers and increasingly bookers.

Not such good news for Travel agents as a study from YouGov and Memonic found only 15% of British travellers now use travel agents to research their holidays yet 2/3rd of online Brits (67%) are now using the Internet to research, source and plan their holidays both in the UK and abroad. ABTA’s numbers show that Brits love their holidays. But the downturn has forced more staycation type activity. The average Brit took 3.2 holidays; two in the UK and 1.2 abroad! Despite the Coop who is running ads advising you to come to the Travel Agent and not waste time online – the punters are clearly not paying attention. The research found that 74% of online Brits that research holidays online are spending anywhere from at least two hours upwards researching each holiday online, with 20% spending 8 or more hours.

However old habits die hard – and nearly 50% actually printed their results and 33% used bookmarks. The use of paper is interesting as one of the primary tools of years gone by was Teletext which did not permit printing.
From the same study here are some interesting facts.
• 21% write down the information, while 29% copy and paste into a ‘Word’ document
• When sorting through information they collate, 34% print everything relevant out, while just under a third (31%) review their hand written notes
• 30% share information by hard copy; 60% share the information in person,
• Almost half (47%) of all GB adults online are interested in a tool which would save web content, make notes as they do their research and organise their holiday research. (sounds like the iPad could become a value proposition)
Of course Memonic has a vested interest in this research. As their spokesman stated: With 48% of online holiday researchers printing details rather than collating information on-line in one place no wonder we are seeing so much time being spent on a simple task. In contrast, Memonic is a free web based note-taking software offering web users the ability to capture information onto an online notebook to share with family and friends with no printer in sight and all details are available online on the slopes or at the airport via your mobile devices or Smartphone!”
Or better other regular tools. But still the information shows the need for info containers of easy use.

Cheers