We have been looking at different 2009 forecasts for airline passenger traffic. Not giving away the whole store here but if we look at the 3 conventional reporters - their numbers are all over the map.
So here are the numbers as publicly reported:
IATA - +2.9%
Innovata (not reporting)
Air4Casts - +2.0%
OAG - Capacity Minus 7% for 2008Q4 and thereafter growth limited in 2009.
So far we are seeing greater numbers of losses for Q4 than are predicted here. We are predicting a loss of passengers originating in the USA market to exceed 10%, Europe/EMEA also down 6% and Asia Pacific flat. Based on Y/Y 2008 vs 2007
Remember that our numbers are based on passengers not RPKs/RPMs.
We really hope our numbers are overly pessimistic.
Cheers
No comments:
Post a Comment