PR Hacks must be doing somersaults at Boeing tonight with the release by Flight's resident blogger of the somewhat scathing Airbus study on the 787 program.
I have managed to struggle through it over the last few hours. It makes for some sobering reading. I struggled a little with deciding whether to post a blog entry on this story. However I think it is too important to hold back. Everyone involved needs to read the report and pay attention. The oversight authorities should be aghast at the holes and missteps in the process, given the nature of the study - at the least the issues must be investigated.
The report is available now in the public domain - here is the link:
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flightblogger/Airbus_787_Lessons_learnt.pdf
The report entitled - Airbus: 787 Lessons Learnt" was prepared by a senior analyst inside Airbus using publicly available material and in some cases material which could be regarded as questionably obtained. Clearly this was not meant for significant external publication by either Airbus or Boeing. But out it is.
The scientific nature of the assessment and its impact should and most likely will have a significant impact on Boeing's stock price tomorrow. Boeing will continue to struggle with this program for sometime. For sure the vastly over-rated and wild claims of delivery of 787s at a very high rate cannot be substantiated for quite a few years into the program. If we are to believe the conclusions and assessments of this report - then the impact on a reduced delivery schedule will impact Boeing's revenues and costs for the next 5-7 years.
Boeing has some serious soul searching to do. It must confront a culture of self belief that surely looks pretty battered now. I stand by one of my original statements which is I am not keen on flying on any of the first batch of 787s. For sure not the first 20 ships and probably not until ship 50+ will we see a solid and reliable process. Maybe then I will want to fly on one. Boeing should take heed of the hubris at Eclipse Aviation and its subsequent downfall.
Wisely some of the suppliers have already stopped work. Frankly the first few airframes should be discarded as being unrepresentative of the product. The much publicized wing box, fastener, engines and weight problems are clearly not just isolated incidents. If we can believe (and I put in a BIG IF) the report then Boeing has systematic issues that must be addressed before this fine design goes into serial production. Boeing should just stop and take a total rethink of the entire concept. The design is not the issue - it is the production process and the relationship with the suppliers, and in turn their performance. The whole concept has shown itself to be flawed. Delegation of the design and supervision come out as being the core issue. Boeing is not the actual problem in most cases, however this was all their idea and their watch. They have accepted the responsibility. Clearly the band aids introduced so far are not enough. They need to step up and just call a halt to the whole idea until the processes are re-thought, validated and tested. Then re-tested. Only when we have a representative sample aircraft should they be allowed to proceed into production. The current ship planned as a prototype is nothing like the production ship. And it should not be used to validate the design - rather just to test. Even some of the testing done to date may be suspect.
The FAA, JAA both should step in and call a halt to what could be a farcical situation. They need to be more involved in this process.
I want to add that my assessment in this blog entry is based largely on the reading of the report and past errors which have in some cases been already addressed. Airplane manufacturing is not a simple process. However if Boeing wants to beat me up about this then I welcome the opportunity for them to address the issues outlined here. If I am wrong and the report is bogus. I will instantly retract it. I find the report credible in my personal opinion.
Let's all hope for Boeing's sake that this can get fixed. Not rushed.
Cheers
No comments:
Post a Comment