Get prepared for the loss of freedom of travel
| Restrictions coming our way in the 2020s |
I would like to make five predictions for this decade. I will try to cover the areas I am passionate about - namely aviation, travel and technology. Let's get rid of the nasty one first. The others include one that will be a disappointment and some that should give us some hope. I hope you will see a common thread running through these thoughts.
Travel will no longer be unfettered and an expression of freedom. As our planet gets more crowded joy will be replaced by drudgery. How could this happen? Three reasons.
1. Political divisions will be enhanced as the world moves to a series of jockeying for position. The isolationism of the current US Administration will sadly pay off in the coming decade.
2. Emancipation of so many countries of wealth and maturity that feel they have just as much right to travel will result and fare greater masses wanting to see the major tourist sites. Venice, London etc.
3. Global Climate Change Acceleration. Call it what it is; human powered will start to get in the way of the freedom of travel.
One interesting side product will be the emergence of tourism focused on remote and quiet. Yes get-away-from-it-all will become a much sought-after niche product.
Startups and innovation will give way to SWEW. Software Everywhere. We will have very few forms of mega hit startups. So, think unicorns will go the way of Purple Squirrels. Machine Learning and AI will give way to Realtime Software Systems. IE Systems that provide capability for any activity to be automated and humans become less and less important to the management of technology.
Electric powered flight will become not just a reality but a norm. There will be 2 forms of this manifested in the next decade.
Product 1 - short haul autonomous controlled aircraft up to 50 passengers will replace the need for short haul hops on routs of less than 300 miles or 500 kilometers.
Product 2 - assisted mode electrically powered flight for all forms of aviation will become the norm. Allowing the migration away from pure fossil powered flight.
The end of the phone in your pocket. By the mid-decade we will have communicator systems that are driven by our biological presence with accuracy that is unthinkable today. The phone will cease to be the vehicle of choice for communication, replaced by Ambient Computing. Sensors all around us will detect and response. Leading to my last prediction...
Explicit interaction moves to implicit and assumed background systems. As someone who has been involved in innovation, startups and pushing the boundaries of technology for over 3 decades - I will see the last of the development of explicit behaviour on behalf of the consumer and the developers of today will become increasingly redundant.
And my prediction for myself? I hope that I will be able to teach and help those to will be the generation that powers these changes to do so for good.
Thank you for reading and may I wish you and your families all, a Happy New Year and a great decade ahead.
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