Xmas 2021

'Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the house
Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse;
….And that really is the problem. Not enough people are flying, staying, cruising
Covid after 2 years continues to decimate our industry, Travel is not moving
 
So here is my Christmas wish. Can we all cooperate to make our industry come back to life?
 
In October, my colleagues and I came up with the 5 points for making the Pandemic manageable
Simple proof of vaccination
Test upon arrival
Liability on airlines
Transparency of statistics
Costs of testing to be included in ticket price
What is the status…
Complicated and still no universality.
Still only a few countries who do this.
Still only 1 or 2 countries who do this
Sadly we are down to Hong Kong
Nope not happening (yet).
https://lnkd.in/g87TMqP5
 
So we appeal again. Please fix this. But this time we are wiser,
We are not going to wait without recourse – this time we are rising.
Our hopes and stockings are hung by the chimney with care,
Governments need to stop being reactive and out of this global snare
The children and adults need to feel safe and snug in their beds
While visions of travels near and far dance in their heads
It’s time for us to take our own path forward. It’s time for us to be leaders
For our industry and our stakeholders, our partners and yes our customers
 
And what of St Nick? He surely can’t be happy to be so
He probably can only visit 4 countries at one go.
Using present rules – we would have to (by my his elves calculation)
Spend more than 2968 days in quarantine isolation.
However, away he has started on his journey of the year
We know he will do his best to bring his good cheer
But I heard him exclaim, ere he drove out of sight,
"Happy Christmas to all, and to all a good-night."
 
Thank you for reading my words this past year.
For those who agreed with me in whole or in part – I am honoured by your trust
For those who disagree with me in whole or in part – I hope I make you think
I hope you will continue to let me be both a curmudgeon and a force for change.
 
#airlines #travel #thankyou #people #testing #leaders #statistics #change #covid

One of the world's favourite... The image is the cover of the Clement C Moore book. The words are a very poor adaptation of his famous work.  

 Please stay safe, follow Public Health recommendations. Wear a mask in public and get the vaccinations/boosters as soon as you can.  

Seasons Greetings and Happy Christmas. And as a wise man once said…
May your God go with you.

Be fiercly Positive

 

 

How to travel across Europe and present a Covid vaccine pass no matter where you are.

 

This might help you to work things through if you are going to be in Europe (not UK) any time in the near future. NOTE I know this works for USA residents only. It may work for other countries where the vaccine you have has been approved for use in the EU. NOTE – I know this does work for Pfizer. According to the EU website a further 6 vaccines are approved these include the other 2 USA ones: Moderna and J&J.  https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans_en

 

The background is that the EU has – as some of you already know – a common standard for vaccination certificates. How one get’s the certificate and that process has value for US based travellers. Unlike other countries Germany insists on using a single certificate for each administered injection. Several countries in Europe also permit the cross over of one vaccination form in one country for another. And this is where it gets interesting. With each individual vaccination certificate this has value. They can be loaded onto different covid apps. That may sound a little weird but bear with me. While ANY EU country will accept another country’s certificates – it is useful to have more than one country version. That is because they are all a little different.

 

Back to my 3 certificates. I already had a Pass Sanitaire from France. https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/coming-to-france/coming-to-france-your-covid-19-questions-answered/procedure-for-non-european-nationals-to-obtain-a-valid-covid-certificate-in/ However after about 8 months the Pass goes inactive. I was able to load it back up with the 3^rd (of 3) certificates that I now had from Germany. https://www.digitaler-impfnachweis-app.de/en/  BUT – in Spain and Gibraltar the paper version was still working. The app however would work again until I topped up the certificate into the Pass.

 

Cut to the chase… how to go about doing this?

1. I highly recommend you getting a yellow Vaccination Card from Amazon. Then the next time you get a vaccination make sure that the person who administers it signs both the US standard card and the Internationally recognized CDC/WHO Yellow form. I have had one since the first vaccine and thus I have all 3 of mine loaded and signed off.
2. Make sure you have signed up for the 2 apps I know work -  CovPass (Germany) and the Pass Sanitaire (France).
3. Once you arrive in Germany, go straight to a Pharmacy – larger ones usually will do this. Not every Pharmacy has access to the system.
4. Present your Yellow Card (or the USA Card) and your passport.
5. Ask the Pharmacy to issue you with a certificate for each of the vaccines you have received. Make sure they issue you with a piece of paper as well as sending you the email.
6. Now open the German CovPass app. And load in each of the vaccine certificates.
7. Now open the French Pass Sanitaire app. And load in each of the vaccine certificates.

 

Note that there are some other countries who accept the European certificates. Singapore is one. The same process may work in other countries. I suggest you check with a friend in that country.

 

The reason I like the German version is that they issue one vaccination certificate for each time you are jabbed.

 

Happy Travels.

 With apologies to Lee Greenwood - because he let's his song be abused anyway...

I would like to put a new rap soundtrack underneath this song. Because SCOTUS is about to gut Roe vs Wade and thus we need to know about the new American Male.  And here is how it goes:

If tomorrow all the things were gone (LIKE DEMOCRATS AND OTHER LOW LIFES)
I worked for all my life (TO KEEP THE THAT WELFARE CHECK COMING)
And I had to start again (UNDER THE GOD TRUMP)
With just my children and my wife (WHO WILL BE MY VASSALS AND SERVANTS)
I'd thank my lucky stars (FOR THOSE REPUBLICAN CROOKS)
To be livin' here today (AS IF THAT IS WHAT ONE CAN CALL LIVING)
'Cause the flag still stands for freedom (HAS BEEN SO DEBASED IT’S NOT WORTH ANYTHING)
And they can't take that away (BUT IT’S GREAT THE GOP IS SURE TRYING HARD)

 

And I'm proud to be an American (… MALE)
Where at least I know I'm free (.. TO DO WHAT I WANT, KILL, MAIM AND DISCRIMINATE)
And I won't forget the men who died (ACTUALLY I ALREADY DID)
Who gave that right to me (WHO WERE THESE PEOPLE ANY WAY – MUST HAVE BEEN SOCIALISTS OR DEMOCRATS)
And I'd gladly stand up (AND STORM THE CAPITOL)
Next to you and defend her still today (ACTUALLY IT’S “HIM” I AM DEFENDING, YOU KNOW – TRUMP)
'Cause there ain't no doubt I love this land (TEXAS IS ABOUT IT)
God bless the USA (UNITED STATES OF (male) ASSHOLES)

 

Thank you for reading. 

Welcome to Travel Euphoria.  

 

 

There is a lot of what has been called "Revenge" travel. That will drive the initial highs  particularly VFR. Once these bumps are out - then the total traffic will fall back to a lower level than 2019 and that will impact the entire travel ecosystem.

 

Let us dive into that hypothesis, clearly there are 2 constraints. Physical and Sentiment

Physical is what we have been focused during the pandemic. Actual border restraints; quarantines, testing. These have taken the form of unilateral (one country closing its borders), bilateral (choosing one country to discriminate against) and overall multi-lateral (all travel must stop).

 

But we have NO CLUE about sentiment

 

Sentiment is usually discerned by asking people what they feel. BUT we all know that respondents to surveys frequently lie and when the rubber meets the road it is likely that potential travellers will be more reticent than they will respond on a form.

 

There is however another factor, namely new learned behaviour.

Human behaviour has memory that can be changed. New behaviour replaces old behaviour? How long does that take?

According to some psychologists the norm should be about 21 days. One of the better studies states 66 Days, and even the most optimistic is at the outside 254 days. Well, here we are in the pandemic at over 600 days, so we have all learned to live without travel.

https://jamesclear.com/new-habit

 

Coming back to travel will require us to learn anew the joys of travel.

 

We need to acknowledge that yes, we will return to some travel, but the impact will be moderated horizontal and vertical. Overall, less people will “do” travel due to both real and sentiment driven reasons. Those who do will travel less frequently. Is it not odd that no one is talking about this?

 

“Travel will come back... 2022 will look like 2019” - Politely this is BS or more accurately it is wishful thinking.

 

Let’s focus on Corporate Travel. What should companies do in this situation? We already know that corporate budgets have been slashed and some are even saying they will cut travel permanently. Even for the travel that does take place – liability coverage costs will increase. And even at the personal level, testing will add significant cost. Also, on the personal front what happens if a parent gets trapped away from home?  Once hearth and home are threatened resistance behaviour increases exponentially.

 

Travel will need to start rebuilding trust. This is not being addressed. Governments have proved themselves untrustworthy in many regards during the pandemic. The travel industry will have to address this themselves. Governments generally think that paying the airlines off was a good enough fop to the industry.  

 

We should all be concerned that we don't get wrapped up in the euphoria of the moment.  China was the number 2 player in global travel in 2019. They are not going to be opening their borders probably until 2023.

 

Here is an analysis from OAG of the impact of China’s absence from the South East Asia Markets

 

Source OAG. © 20121

 

Many of us have either personal or near acquaintance travel experiences. Those of us who have traveled (Author included), will think more carefully about whether or not they will subject themselves to the new order and risk. Some will just say – no thanks – I’ll just stay home. Euphoria will fade fast, and reality of the new learned behaviour will become a permanent aspect and friction of travel.

 

With acknowledgement to the fellow debaters of 2020 and 2021 Great WIT Debate teams who stimulated and participated in the creation of this post.  

 

The views expressed here are purely personal.