Welcome to Travel Euphoria.  

 

 

There is a lot of what has been called "Revenge" travel. That will drive the initial highs  particularly VFR. Once these bumps are out - then the total traffic will fall back to a lower level than 2019 and that will impact the entire travel ecosystem.

 

Let us dive into that hypothesis, clearly there are 2 constraints. Physical and Sentiment

Physical is what we have been focused during the pandemic. Actual border restraints; quarantines, testing. These have taken the form of unilateral (one country closing its borders), bilateral (choosing one country to discriminate against) and overall multi-lateral (all travel must stop).

 

But we have NO CLUE about sentiment

 

Sentiment is usually discerned by asking people what they feel. BUT we all know that respondents to surveys frequently lie and when the rubber meets the road it is likely that potential travellers will be more reticent than they will respond on a form.

 

There is however another factor, namely new learned behaviour.

Human behaviour has memory that can be changed. New behaviour replaces old behaviour? How long does that take?

According to some psychologists the norm should be about 21 days. One of the better studies states 66 Days, and even the most optimistic is at the outside 254 days. Well, here we are in the pandemic at over 600 days, so we have all learned to live without travel.

https://jamesclear.com/new-habit

 

Coming back to travel will require us to learn anew the joys of travel.

 

We need to acknowledge that yes, we will return to some travel, but the impact will be moderated horizontal and vertical. Overall, less people will “do” travel due to both real and sentiment driven reasons. Those who do will travel less frequently. Is it not odd that no one is talking about this?

 

“Travel will come back... 2022 will look like 2019” - Politely this is BS or more accurately it is wishful thinking.

 

Let’s focus on Corporate Travel. What should companies do in this situation? We already know that corporate budgets have been slashed and some are even saying they will cut travel permanently. Even for the travel that does take place – liability coverage costs will increase. And even at the personal level, testing will add significant cost. Also, on the personal front what happens if a parent gets trapped away from home?  Once hearth and home are threatened resistance behaviour increases exponentially.

 

Travel will need to start rebuilding trust. This is not being addressed. Governments have proved themselves untrustworthy in many regards during the pandemic. The travel industry will have to address this themselves. Governments generally think that paying the airlines off was a good enough fop to the industry.  

 

We should all be concerned that we don't get wrapped up in the euphoria of the moment.  China was the number 2 player in global travel in 2019. They are not going to be opening their borders probably until 2023.

 

Here is an analysis from OAG of the impact of China’s absence from the South East Asia Markets

 

Source OAG. © 20121

 

Many of us have either personal or near acquaintance travel experiences. Those of us who have traveled (Author included), will think more carefully about whether or not they will subject themselves to the new order and risk. Some will just say – no thanks – I’ll just stay home. Euphoria will fade fast, and reality of the new learned behaviour will become a permanent aspect and friction of travel.

 

With acknowledgement to the fellow debaters of 2020 and 2021 Great WIT Debate teams who stimulated and participated in the creation of this post.  

 

The views expressed here are purely personal.