Boeing vs Airbus et al Overall Market Outlook Historic Comparison.

THIS IS THE EXPANDED VERSION OF THE LINKED IN POST ON THE TOPIC OF COMPARING THE CMO AND THE GMF FROM BOEING AND AIRBUS RESPECTIVELY 

Analysis Summary

• Both Boeing and Airbus forecasts from ∼10 years ago slightly underestimated demand, often due to unforeseen growth—especially after global events or emerging-market acceleration.

• Boeing’s conservatism produces ~10–15% lower demand forecasts in volume, but its aircraft sizing predictions are accurate.

• Airbus’s multi-flow, model-based approach yields forecasts tightly aligned with Boeing’s in CAGR and delivery breakdown (slightly lower in volume).

• By the decade in, both maintained credibility: Boeing emphasizes “industry standard,” Airbus continues using refined modeling.

High-Level Comparisons

Aspect	Boeing	Airbus	Embraer
Forecast Period	2025–2044 (20 years)	2025–2044 (20 years)	2025–2044 (20 years), sub‑150 seats only
Total Aircraft	43,600 demand estimate	43,420 total new passenger & freighter	10,500 regional jets/turboprops
Annual Growth	~3.1%–3.7% fleet growth CAGR	3.6% passenger traffic growth	Focused on regional connectivity
Geographic Drivers	China & S/SE Asia for growth	Urbanization, global middle class, GDP	N. America + Asia-Pacific regional markets
Segment Focus	Single-aisle (33,300+), wid EB	Single, widebody, freighter mix	Small jets (<150 seats) and turboprops

Similarity: All three projects expect strong growth driven by global GDP, expanding middle classes, and emerging markets. Each aligns on the next 20‑year horizon.

Differing Emphases:

• Boeing highlights single-aisle dominance but trimmed its estimates slightly—43,600 vs last year’s 43,975—reflecting cautious tone  .

• Airbus anchors its growth projections more strongly in demographic and GDP drivers, estimating 43,420 new deliveries—specifying ~34,250 single-aisles, 9,170 wide‑bodies  .

• Embraer zeros in on the regional, sub‑150 seat market—10,500 jets/turboprops—and stresses connectivity, flexibility and environmental priorities  .

Unique Highlights & Quirky Anomalies

Boeing

• Refined Forecast: Trimmed traffic growth from 4.7% to 4.2%, global GDP from 2.6% to 2.3%, reflecting turbulence in trade and supply chains  .

• Production Bottlenecks: Persistent shortage of 1,500–2,000 aircraft in delivery backlog due to post‑COVID production issues  .

• Emerging Market Rebound: Resumption of deliveries to China (formerly 10% backlog) expected June 2025  .

• Share Impact: Short-term stock drag after Air India 787 crash, yet long-term outlook supports aerospace suppliers like GE Aerospace  .

Airbus

• Precise Mix: Breaks down demand to ~34,250 single aisles, 9,170 widebodies in next 20 years  .

• Driver-Centric: Frames growth through lenses of +2.5% GDP, +1.2 bn urban population, +1.5 bn middle class  .

• Regional Insight: Noted 4.1% traffic growth in Africa and requirement for ~15,000 pilots, 20,000 technicians, and 24,000 cabin crew in Africa alone  .

• Services Market: Predicts aircraft services will double by 2041, driven by digital, remote, and environmental demands  .

                Quirky takeaway: “Crew crunch in Africa: Airbus sees massive support-hiring as a strategic opportunity.”

Embraer

• Smaller Scale: Sole focus on 10,500 sub-150 seat jets & turboprops—broken down into 8,720 jets and 1,780 turboprops  .

• Connectivity Edge: Emphasizes role of regional jets in high‑frequency routes and environmental flexibility  .

• Regional Growth Split: Asia Pacific leads jet deliveries, North America leads turboprops, and jet share will be 39% Asia Pacific by 2044  .

• Turboprop Market: Embraer anticipates 2,260 turboprops demand for its next-generation turboprop series—an in-house focus on E‑Freighter and TPNG lines  .

• Paris Airshow Momentum: Reinforced demand via SkyWest order (60 E175), Lithuanian defense KC‑390 selection and cargo freighter push  .

Here’s a refined analysis of how accurate the 10‑year‑ago market outlooks from Boeing and Airbus have been:

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Boeing’s Forecast Accuracy

• 2000–2009 Retrospective: Boeing noted that its early-2000s forecasts for 2009 traffic and aircraft demand were conservative, underestimating actual market demand by 10–15%, though their segmentation (by aircraft size) was “admirably accurate”  .

• 2012–2011 Fleet Comparisons: Independent visual comparisons suggest Boeing’s published fleet forecasts tracked closely with real-world growth trends through 2011, showing solid qualitative performance .

• Reaffirmed Accuracy: By 2019–2020, Boeing emphasized their forecast’s reliability, calling it an enduring industry standard for combining structural and market dynamics  .

Takeaway: Boeing’s forecasts tend to underestimate demand slightly, erring on the side of conservatism—typically 10–15% low in aggregate volume—but get market segmentation (e.g. single- vs wide-body share) spot-on.

 Airbus’s Forecast Accuracy

• GMF 2015 vs Actual Data: Airbus forecasted ~32,600 new aircraft deliveries from 2015–2034 (22,900 single-aisle; ~8,100 twin-aisle; ~1,550 very large) and a 4.6% annual RPK growth  .

• Both Airbus and Boeing used comparable growth methodologies; one EU analysis projected Boeing would forecast ~15% more fleet growth than Airbus’s ~4.6% CAGR over the 20-year period—close alignment on methodology but slight volume difference  .

• Airbus employs multi-model methodologies across ~70 traffic flows to improve validity  .

Takeaway: Airbus forecasts have been similarly slightly conservative, but align closely with Boeing on annual RPK growth rates (~4.6–4.9%) and overall fleet expansion. Their multi-model, flow-level modeling approach helps refine their estimates.