Brits Want It Warm - But Where?

Those nice people at Skyscanner have been happy to share their search data with us.

Here are the list of risers:

Going Up – the biggest rising summer holiday destinations for Brits

1. Bangkok, Thailand (+271%)
2. Los Angeles, USA (+170%)
3. Porto, Portugal (+163%)
4. Dalaman, Turkey (+160%)
5. Orlando, USA (+158%)
6. Istanbul, Turkey (+157%)
7. Sharm El Sheik, Egypt (+156%)
8. Bodrum, Turkey (+153%)
9. Burgas, Bulgaria (+152%)
10. Oslo, Norway (+143%)

And the Biggest Losers?

Going Down – biggest falls in interest of summer holiday destinations for Brits

1. Prague, Czech Republic (-15%)
2. Cork, Republic of Ireland (-13%)
3. Paphos, Cyprus (-11%)
4. Geneva, Switzerland (-6.5%)
5. Palma, Spain (-6%)
6. Pisa, Italy (-5.5%)
7. Nice, France (-5%)
8. Bordeaux, France (-4.5%)
9. Menorca, Spain (-4%)
10. Venice, Italy (-3%)

Biggest rises and losses in flight searches on Skyscanner.net for summer 09 (May 1st-Aug 30th) compared to summer 08. Flights from UK airports.

Interesting - draw your own conclusion. For more details go to www.skyscanner.net

Cheers

Indaba-2009 - More of the Same

The Professor was not able to go to Indaba in Durban ZA this year... I do hope to next!

So how was it? From a distribution and general sentiment point of view - the optimist in me would say quiet.

The Professor's local spy noted that it was much quieter and wetter than last year, crowds were well down. The opening night beach party was postponed for an hour, but the rain was coming down so hard that not many people went anyway. They do need to think about this in future.

Travelport had a breakfast function and announced nothing (again).

Announcements of a new deal between Travelport and SAA have been imminent for some time but don't hold your breath.

Cheers - there is always next year

US ARC numbers - Getting Better?

Pre-Swine/Pig/Mexican/H1N1 Flu numbers have just been published for Jan-April 2009 for US agency sales.

They may show a little bit of hope - however the possibility has been dashed with the early returns for May as reported by Travelport that show transactions dropping yet again.

Sorry chaps... lets hope for a recovery in June.

Cheers

Do Web Ads Have Time Period Sensitivity?

This is a fascinating question - is there a prime time to the web when advertising is better received.

As we all know (or should know by now) the web is now absorbing as much mindshare as TV. For certain population segments the web has surpassed that of TV. Conan O'Brien who takes over from Jay Leno on the Tonight Show June 1st is even running ads on the US Network NBC touting that his show looks better on TELEVISION.

eMarketer using UK research drawn from Lightspeed Research and the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB UK), show that the best time is (not surprisingly) night time.

http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=34367341

Now note that because effectively you live in REAL time on the web - yet you can time shift tv - this is more effective information that can be used. Thus Evening viewers really are evening viewers rather than slotting a commercial into US Prime Time TV that has a greater than 40% chance that it will be time shifted.

But perhaps we should accept that the amount of influence formal advertising has over us has diminished over time and now the new "Hidden Persuaders"* are those who run Google and Facebook.

Time to finally move over Madison Avenue - its all about the Valley now.

Cheers


* For those who are tender in their youth and don't get the reference - go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vance_Packard

Latest Airline TLA/Buzzword - ATI

So the airlines all want it - legislators (as if they don't have enough to do are very happy to enjoy this distraction) - what the heck am I talking about ATI?

Anti
Trust
Immunity

So frankly I am not a huge fan of creating specific exemptions from good laws. Anti-Trust Immunity means that you are engaging in a practice that you freely admit is anti-Trust (and therefore against the law) yet you want to be exempt so you can engage in something that well is not exactly consumer friendly.

I prefer Black and White. Grey/Gray is not a good color combination.

At the moment there is a significant debate driven largely by Continental's shift from Skyteam to Star and by the expansion of the 3 big alliances. BA-AA-IB (that's BAAABI to regulars of this blog) is still out there. Now the BTC has thrown its voice in support of AA in this manner.

So let's see if I get this right. Several OneWorld airlines are requesting ATI so that they can combine their resources at LHR and across the Atlantic (in normal times among the most profitable routes on the planet), OK fair enough so far. But by combining them - they have a footprint that is at least bigger than all their competitors combined? The justification? the other ATI players have bigger footprints in their home markets. Following their logic this safeguards competition?

Sorry I just don't and cannot buy that argument.

Interestingly enough Air Transport World in their latest editorial penned by Perry Flint is voicing its objection to the EC proposal to make the ATI automatically reviewed at least every 3 years.

I really think that we need to have good competition. We need to have fair competition. I am against ATI. I hope that in future - there will be a clear formula that can emerge that will allow airlines to compete truly competitively without Government Intervention except for consumer protection.

Right now I don't see it. I guess I am more in the Richard Branson camp on this one.

This is going to be a battle that will run for some time yet. May the fairest of them all win out.

Cheers

LAN Loses Baggage Container To JAL 747

Or better known as LD2 meets outboard starboard engine

At LAX a passing JAL 747-400 pax aircraft sucked in a loose LAN owned LD1 lower deck container. It could have been a LD3 we cannot tell - LAN owns both types. The exact details are on Monday 11 May 2009, a metal baggage container - measuring approximately 5 feet by 5 feet by 4 feet - was sucked into the engine of a Japan Airlines Boeing 747 with 245 passengers from Los Angeles International Airport. The accident occurred about 1:30 p.m. when Flight 61 to Narita, Japan, pulled back from Gate 101 at the Tom Bradley International Terminal. Airport officials said the vacuum created by the air intake of the left outboard engine was so strong it pulled the empty container off a baggage cart that was either parked or driven too close to the aircraft. There were no injuries and other arrangements were made for the 245 passengers and 18 crew members

The result - a great day for Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=picE8ZvknpA

EC Gets Tough On Air Ticket Pricing (Update - see at end)

The European Commission is on a mission to force airline tickets to be displayed to the consumer as clearly and as plainly as well as - er - paint. Thus the price offered is the price you pay. A collision course you might say with the airlines and their distributors who are trying to drive ancillary revenue from add-ons. Something that many airlines believe and are now demonstrating is actually saving their behinds.

The EC has a clear position and has enacted legislation to ensure that the conditions are clear and unambiguous. EC Vice President Antonio Tajani (ITALY), in charge of Transport said, "Applying full price transparency is an obligation under the air services regulation. It is a duty for airlines to impose high standards across the industry; it is our responsibility to ensure that all players respect the same rules. This is of first and foremost importance for the consumer who wants to compare prices across airlines and make a real choice."

Thanks to Professor Andrew in Saint Louis for this tip. Today (May 14th) the EC published is second report. There are several links to go to:

http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/09/783&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

For the first round of tables go here:
http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/08/287&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

So far they are not naming the bad people only the good ones or the ones "not yet in compliance".

Bottom line folks - the US could learn a thing or two about this form of consumer protection. You can be sure the Obama Administration and Jim Oberstar http://oberstar.house.gov/ are all over this one. Will we see a US bill of rights or a charter of the same sort WITH teeth? not likely at this stage.

However it is clear that if the airline play the ancillary revenue obfuscation game - it is inviting re-regulation. Be careful what you wish for!

Cheers

The EC's enforcement page was down when I wrote the first version of this post. Therefore you can now find the enforcement details updated here:

http://ec.europa.eu/consumers/enforcement/sweep/index_en.htm

Busy Week... Lots of Stories!

So this has been a busy few weeks. While I have been on the road - I have spent some time trying to understand the state of the travel "economy". There are some noticeable representative signs of the recession. Hotels have fewer staff. Whole floors have been shut off. Restaurants are noticeably less full. etc etc.

The big question for many remains are we there yet? There being the bottom of the curve. Even if we are "there" which a few people seem to believe - the next sequential question is what sort of recovery will we have and how long will it take to return to "normal" - whatever that is.

The general consensus seems to be that the general market is down around 12 points. Consistent with what I have been saying so far - this is the 15%. What we are seeing continues to confirm the position that the GDSs are suffering far worse than the overall market. This is due to the nature of the bulk of their business being dependent on the corporate market. Travelport's numbers this week are stark evidence of the depth of the downturn. Worldspan's numbers continue to plummet Galileo is not doing much better.

The retraction is affecting just about everyone. We do see some bright spots. Norwegian is a good example - they seem to be profiting from the re-trenchment of SAS. LAN is another example who is determined to face the recession by expanding. Despite some pretty awful numbers - Lufthansa seems determined to bulk up through acquisition of some smaller players in Europe.

So here are some other stories that have caught my eye and a few comments:


Ryanair continues its relentless push towards the automated airline. One major new charge - lose your automated boarding pass and you have to pay the equivalent of $55. To the relief of Americans coming to Europe, FR has announced that it will not be charging the fat tax - with a caveat. As soon as they figure out how to collect it without disrupting 25 minute turn arounds - then you can expect it to come back.

Air Jamaica has a new twist on the second bag price. Oh yes we make you pay and we dont guarantee delivery on this flight. Come back tomorrow was a headline in Travel Weekly. Not that JM's bag services have been anything to write home about of late!

Chris Rodrigues is relinquishing the CEO title to his deputy at Visit Britain. Looks like he wants a more political focus in the run up to the UK Olympics in 3 years.

ATM was great say the organizers. You know my opinion. It really was a lot less than last year. So far I have not seen official statistics other than the number of stands - I wonder of that quantity - how many of them were actually occupied.

Speaking of Dubai - this week's stupid vendor tricks award goes to FlyDubai.

Here is a snap shot of their announcements page.



As you can see - even though they dont start service until June they want to default the booking widget to today's date. Tsk Tsk. For a professional outfit like FZ, they (and their provider Radixx) should do better. Still I wish them all the best for their first flights that take off on June 1st. Air Arabia watch out - these guys are coming for your blood!

Also Emirates (no relation to FlyDubai) has concluded a deal with BT to consolidate their call centers into a single global comms entity. More power to them on this one - their 9 CCs and then various CTOs will now be linked by a new network provided by BT.

SITA announced one of the first deliverables in its next gen PSS - the Customer Journey CJ to replace the former passenger record we all know and love called the PNR. Best of luck to Jim Peters and his crew on this one.

And finally - latest to hold out the hand or more accurately point the nose into the stimulus trough is Sabre. They are raising dire warnings of hell fire and brimstone if the government doesnt do something to stimulate travel (and consequently improve Sabre's GDS bookings!).

"Brits Want It Warm" Says Skyscanner

Skyscanner like several other sites does these nice polls. I like the ones they do as they provide a nice little insight to the minds of the consumer from different perspectives.

Of course I would caution anyone in reading too much into such research. So they asked Britons why they travel. For the full results go here:

http://news.skyscanner.net/articles/2009/05/002355-warm-weather-wins-over-value-say-skyscanner-holidaymakers.html

Commenting on the results - Barry Smith one of the founders said “Our poll shows that Britons’ love of sun is still the most important driving force behind holiday location choice. Although the recession is influencing travel choices, escaping Britain’s gloomy climate is the most essential goal. Sunny countries that are non-euro such as Turkey and Croatia are likely to be especially popular this summer.”

Now here is the conundrum. Brits like many other nationalities in Europe have kept their wallets, purses, handbags and cash closed. Thus there has been far less advance booking this year. If the UK summer is going to be good then the chances for a late booking bonanza is not likely. The weather prognostication is just that - a hot British Summer. People are going to be staying at home and spending their money at B&Q and Homebase rather than Ryanair and Thomas Cook.

Look for the volume of special offers to pick up in the coming weeks.

Cheers

ATM and Dubai – A Perspective

I did say I would try and avoid doom and gloom stories- but I think that this is a story that should be told.

This week the Professor was in Dubai during Arabian Travel Mart. I use the opportunity to both catch up with clients, friends and even people who don’t fall into either of these categories. The marketplace is very subdued. There are grim faces everywhere. Rumours are flying of the doom and gloom variety. I can attest to several first hand observations of the depth of the collapse in Dubai. I do not use that word lightly. While there are some positive signs from Emirates of stable passenger numbers, EK is not immune from the same pressures that Legacy carriers such as BA and Delta are experiencing. The International Herald Tribune had an article May 8th 2009 on the impact of the biz travel downturn on SQ, BA and others. It is clearly a state of affairs that has astounded everyone by the depth and breadth of the reductions.

The ATM show itself was down in exhibitor volume. The halls that handled the property groups were actually closed. Throughout the show there were empty stand positions, something I do not recall from prior shows. I attended all 3 days and on no day did the attendance look anything like prior years. It was frankly very quiet, I had meetings at the coffee shop in the center of the halls and I could observe the traffic on both entrances – there was no rushing, no bunching . I am sure numbers must be down at least 20% probably a lot more. The building program exacerbated the problems of taxis and I am sure that this upset and frustrated many a show goer. I went out of my way to talk to hoteliers to get their perspectives. I was so taken aback by their war stories. Typical responses: “ we don’t know when we will be back to above 40% occupancy” and “I doubt we are even covering our opex let alone debt coverage.”

One night I went with some colleagues to the new Atlantis resort at the end of the first completed Palm. To say that it was quiet would be like saying a mortuary was a busy place. Rates are down universally. I spoke to several people who gave me first hand stories of deals they had received. Even the top hotels like the Jumeriah properties, The Fairmont and the Grand Hyatt all had evidence of heavy discounting.

The exodus of the expat community is also significant. While no hard numbers exist – I was again quite taken aback by the number of people I knew personally who had left or were leaving.

It is going to take a long time for normality to return. By normality – I mean reasonable yield and occupancy levels. Clearly Dubai has to do a lot to remarket itself and lower its costs. The Saudi traveler who is the most coveted customer these days has so many choices elsewhere that he needs to be courted and sold to rather than held at arms length.

New skills like selling rather than order taking will need to be learned.

Cheers

Stupid Vendor Tricks

It never ceases to amaze me how some suppliers treat their customers.

I most cases the customer is treated like an idiot. Or worse that he is given a useless offer that is just not deliverable,

Let me give you an example.

Avis… I rent them all the time. They tell me how wonderful I am and that they award me free rental weekends. So far I have NEVER been able to use them.

Now comes news of their latest offer. Rent for one week a premium car and you can have for 2 days a GPS for free. So of course we will all want to go through the hassle of returning the unit. And really we want to rent a unit for the whole 5 other days….

Hello people!!!

Note to vendors, treat your users with respect and they will respond to you. And ALWAYS remember Newton’s second law:

To every action there is an equal and opposite REACTION.

Cheers

Capacity continues to fall – dramatically – Are we there yet?

I have just spent nearly a week in the UK and have been looking at the current situation of the market. I think we all know that premium traffic is just a disaster. Last week British Airways announced a 2:1 sale on business class. This on top of their free seats for SMEs.

Capacity continues to fall globally. On this scale, the world's airlines have cut 6% flights for April 2009 Y/Y with a 3% drop in seat capacity. According to the latest statistics from OAG, frequencies and capacity within the UK for April are down year on year by 13% and 14% respectively, the last time the April figures for the UK were lower than this was in 2001. International services to and from the UK are down by 10%. The LCC sector is not immune either with a 12% reduction in capacity. In the USA another metric is the reduction of the number of routes. In one year according to anna aero the number has dropped domestically by 300.

So have we reached the bottom yet? Sorry – I don’t think so. With a bumper summer being promised for the UK – I don’t see people opening their wallets for flights. Instead they are going to be spending it in their back gardens and working on some DIY. This past April – while not the warmest on record was the 10th warmest April ever recorded. People are not going to be too keen to travel….

Of course if this week’s Bank Holiday is anything to go by – then we know that every bank Holiday this summer will be guaranteed to rain!

Cheers

GDSs Glorify Their Fare Performance! But Can You Trust Them?

You can tell I have been contemplating the issue of Trust.

As some of you may know there is much debate around the “who gets the lowest fare really” question.
Sabre is touting its Topaz based study. Now it has even gone to the expense of creating a website devoted to the achievements.

I make no judgment of the study or its methodology. However in our private studies – we can assure you that there are differences – frequently significant – between the results of the GDSs, the results of the OTAs and the results of the Airline.com sites. The results vary significantly market by market. (And don't get me started on the meta-search companies). Now we also see that as caching is being used more frequently we see difference that are frequently driven by the caching. The “look in one place book in another” only works when it comes with a performance guarantee from the inventory owner. This has been one of my gripes about meta searches. Quality measurements in the performance area is always going to be interesting and probably never coming. Obfuscation is still the order of the day. But I do think there is a glimmer of hope in that less and less people are relying on the GDS as the source of the fares and as a result (particularly outside North America) the issue of a trusted fare is being understood.

Inside the GDS the guarantee of a seat and fare via the PCA (participating carrier agreement) is passed onto the travel intermediary through the subscriber contract. Now that the GDS infrastructure cannot handle the sheer volume of searches on an economic basis – the current answer is to use Cached fares+availability such as via ITA’s engine. However by the time it gets handed off to another source for booking the cache may be out of date or just plain wrong. In the GDS world this is handled somewhat. But in the new world of open access this commercial coverage is still not quite there yet. However it will have to be.

Anyone willing to forward a solution to this problem and its very complex set of issues? (and no I am not accepting that everyone has to use the GDS as the answer).

Answers on a post card or the back of an envelope please….

Cheers

So Who Do You Trust?

In the current economic environment – everyone has to work harder for their daily bread. I dont think there are many people in the Travel Industry who would doubt that statement. Even Prince Waleed (Kingdom Holdings) is down quite a lot. The Evening Standard is even speculating that he may have to cancel his order for the second Private Airbus A380.

So against this backdrop – it is probably a good idea to ask “who do you trust?” As Media goes through a radical change this is a very pertinent question. eMarketer has just published a little piece from TNS Media Intelligence. In this the online players should take heart that their trust levels seem to be pretty high. However there are some really dark clouds in the study.

There is some very interesting data of differences in countries – so its well worth a click on over to this link to see it:

http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?R=1007067

However – some bad news for people like the Professor. Private Blogs are trusted among the least. The most trusting are the Italians at a measly 14%. Everyone else is well below 10%. Makes you want to cry doesn’t it….

Sob Sob

Delta Introduces - ehemmm - Commissions

Say WHAT????

Yes... as a "trial" DL introduces 10% commission... from NYC area to LATAM

And who said generosity is dead?

Cheers

ATM 2009 - Quiet and Very Subdued

So the 2009 Arabian Travel Mart opened today.

Very quiet and very subdued. I participated in many events and spoke to a lot of people who are attending - many for the regular n'th time.

General perception.

UGH!

it is bad.

I can honestly say the overall management was its usual high standard - but the level of attendees was noticeably down.

No crowds at the reception/entrance.

The new taxi process however really sucks.

Cheers

The Icelandic Raiders Vanquished

What a difference a year makes. Just 2 years ago the Icelanders were tackling stakes in such companies as Easyjet and taking a large stake in American Airlines. Now look how far they have come. The last of the raiders is FONS. And this story (roughly translated from Norwegian) tells the story of the bankruptcy filing. Thanks to Professor Kai for this one.

"The district court of Reykjavik approved today to take Fons, holding company of Palmi Haraldsson and Johannes Kristinsson into bankruptcy procedure. The company owns Securitas and Plastprent. Palmi says this is a shock. The company has been in a better position than many other companies.

Fons has been a major company in the Icelandic economy for the past years and amongst other owned a large part in FL Group. With Securitas and Plastprent owns Fons a part of the English toy stores Hamleys and the Nordic travel agency Ticket.

"This is of course an enormous shock," says Palmi but does not want to comment further on the position of the company. The request had been made to put the copany into bankruptcy which the district court approved today. "

This is sad in my view. We need entrepreneurial talent to inject fresh blood into our industry.

Plea To the Dutch: Please Don't Change

The terrible events of April 30th this past week are yet another example of the power of the few (in this case one) to disrupt the lives of the many or indeed the rest.

As with other acts of terrorism - it is always about the ability of someone to destroy the values of the masses to their own selfish ends.

Queen's Day in the Netherlands is a wonderful and joyous occasion that has been existed since 1885. My plea is don't change. Celebrate that which is your unique culture and freedom. To change would be to acknowledge that this deranged person was right and then we collectively all lose. If it gets changed and things are not as they were - then any other like-minded person will do the same thing.

Don't give in and don't change.

Thanks for reading

Cheers

More Pig Flu Resources

This one from Kevin and his team over at BTC:

http://www.netvibes.com/btc#Flu

Cheers

Is A Pax Bill Of Rights Needed?

There are arguments both for and against obviously.

In the European Community and other markets there is a clear set of responsibilities on the airlines.

Just in case anyone is interested - I actually do have an axe to grind on this subject.

But it seems that my lot - which I am happy to share at a future time had nothing on the plight of DL510 on April 10th. In that case the elements conspired against the airline and the passengers were innocent victims. Clearly DL could have done a better job than they did. For a complete chapter and verse on the subject check out today (Tuesday's) Wall Street Journal on the subject.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124087571331061425.html?mod=djemseat

In my case - DL had no excuse. The just screwed up. Plain and Simple and of course now they refuse to admit it.

In Europe - as I have reported before there is even a guy who checks the validity of the airlines story about so called "Weather" delays.

Bottom line.

You don't have to take it... and there are already several courses of redress you can take.

And to Delta - I am still waiting for an apology from you. But then again I am still flying you so go figure... may be I am brain damaged by too much flying.

Cheers