So let's assume that the 787 program will now go smoothly - as we have seen that's a big - very big - assumption. But humour me here for a moment.
Reading FlightBlogger's post on the production schedule it confirms the beliefs that I have harboured for some time.
1. The prototype will be pretty far from the production standard.
2. The early models will have gone through several modifications.
The first one is to be expected.
However the process of modifying the early production aircraft is somewhat drastic. As there are a lot of unknowns in the design and process of Boeing's new integrated supply chain this represents a sea change of activity ranging from the material (composite vs metal) to the production process (disparate vs all in the same place). As Boeing has frequently admitted this was not their finest hour and they still have to get the supply chain monster under control.
I realize that all aircraft are somewhat wonders of integration that get them into the air in the first place. However the element that causes me so much concern is that from the gitgo the process was designed to lead to a high volume production rate with little thought (in my opinion) to the process of incorporating changes. If you want an example of how spectacularly that could fail look no further than the now defunct Eclipse Aviation.
Bottom line for me - I will be avoiding flying on ANA and other early adopters of the 787. I shall be watching for aircraft tail numbers tied into MSN numbers before boarding a 787 commercially. However I wish everyone success in this project. Just let me not be the guinea pig.
Cheers
1 comment:
Better to avoid the computer controlled Airbus. Flightblogger's last two on Spirit Aviation, a tier-1 sub is really quite comforting on BAC's change control, e.g., the rework being accomplished in WA is pursuant to holding static the sub-assemblies to allow production knowledge to be accumulated. This is a positive, not a negative. Finding the weak point in the wing body join in the static test was positive in that it tweaked the design model. The third element that is not discussed is the all electric architecture of the 787. My guess is that this change from hydraulic/mechanical systems is more difficult than the supply chain expansion. The 777 supply chain was nearly as extensive as the 787 chain. The search for global capital has driven the design effort down the supply chain to levels unprecedented in any manufacturing. This is much more complex than the multi-national EADS effort and the problems are being solved more efficiently.
To the traveler, the end result will be a much safer a/c than one in which the omnipotent cpu can't substitute a ground speed input to replace a failed air pressure sensor.
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