Google On the Future. Will It All Be Good In the Googlesphere?

The nice people of Rupert's world sat down with Google head man - Eric Schmidt. The Wall Street Journal team peppered Eric with lots of interesting questions. Some of his answers would make the usual PRHHM (Public Relations hacks handlers and minders) squirm.

In the Googlesphere it has become clear that all information should be held sacred as long as Google has a copy and is in charge of what gets shown and not shown. As Schmidt noted in the Techonomy conference on August 4, 2010 , all information should be subject to "much greater transparency and no anonymity." ... because he assumes that (Google) technology is ultimately good (as opposed to evil). I think that makes me very nervous. And thank you, I vote for my Government which I think is called a democracy.



Going back to the WSJ article, Schmidt continues - "Most people..... They want Google to tell them what they should be doing next."

In general I believe that personalization is part of the mix. My view is that 'context' is better term than 'personalization'. I don't think that everything needs to be/should be uniquely or personalized. That is not how we are in our work and personal lives. To assume that this is the case is blatantly arrogant in my view. What happens if you get this wrong? And yes people who should know better do get these sort of things wrong - frequently. Just look at credit reports. But Google doesn't seem to want to think about that because.... Mr. Schmidt is a believer in targeted advertising because, simply, he's a believer in targeted everything: "The power of individual targeting—the technology will be so good it will be very hard for people to watch or consume something that has not in some sense been tailored for them." ....This is a direct quote from the WSJ. Too bad that Big Brother Google will be the arbiter or this and thence directly or indirectly control and influence our tastes.

This reminds me of the way the legacy GDSs have acted up till now. You can have your content anyway you like as long as they are the gatekeepers to the content and can charge you a toll, and that they control the form of the content.

So when these worlds collide, as they will if Google completes its purchase of ITA, then we will have an interesting battle of epic proportions.

And yes - I want to be around to watch it. But I am not waiting. In my world we have developed independent solutions which we are deploying to make our world independent and user controlled. I believe that there should be free and independent markets. I do not want to be curtailed by censorship or by any form of Big Brother deciding what content I can consume. No matter who you are.

I now firmly believe that Google has crossed the line from universally doing no evil. As we have seen and I have commented before. Evil does not have to come from an overt act. It can just as easily come from an inadvertent act of carelessness or laziness. If I don't drink the CoolAid and can see that Google's commercial direction does conflict with my freedom then I am prepared to join the rebel battalion.

And what do you think?

Are you nervous yet? Bring back Andy Grove so we can ALL be paranoid.

Cheers

LAN + TAM = Latin America Powerhouse. Alliance Anyone?

The blockbuster announcement of the creation of a holding company for two of South America's largest airlines into a single body was predictable but unexpected.

The controlling shareholders of LAN and TAM have agreed to a governance model to jointly manage strategic decisions relating to the alignment of the activities of LATAM group holdings. Mauricio Rolim Amaro, currently Vice-chairman of the Board of Directors at TAM S.A., will serve as Chairman of Board of Directors of LATAMand Enrique Cueto, currently CEO of LAN, will serve as LATAM CEO.

The cross border rationalization in Latin America has been predicted for some time but slow to start. With the intrusion of LAN into several markets it was only a matter of time before the airline would have to address the issue of Latin America's largest aviation market. This is a neat way to address it.

The bringing together last year of TACA and Avianca under a joint ownership but with separate brands was therefore a clue. The possibility of synergies and savings to get to scale was obvious.

All of Latin America's traffic is still smaller than the world's current two largest airlines - Delta and Air France KLM. Therefore cross border mergers are inevitable.

The fragility of the market was underscored in the past 2 weeks with both GOL and TAM reporting losses and the rapid fall of once powerhouse Mexicana.

The new company is not without its challenges. Initially the brands will continue to operate independently sharing back office and common practices. Indeed TAM and LAN have cooperated before with TACA in the purchase of Airbus equipment. The three became known as the Three Amigos in this transaction that has enabled a number of commonalities to occur in the Latin American market.

Once more this throws into contention the issue of the Alliance relationships. LAN is a founding member of OneWorld and TAM is a recent convert to STAR taking over from the defunct old Varig as the anchor in Latin America. Now the map may need to be redrawn.

In their announcement the two airlines stated: The combination would create a new Latin American airline group that would offer seamless passenger and cargo service across the continent and around the world. The new group, to be known as LATAM Airlines Group, would include Lan Airlines and its affiliates in Peru, Argentina and Ecuador; Lan Cargo and its affiliates; TAM Lineas Aereas S.A.; TAM Mercosur and all other holdings of LAN and TAM.

For the other Star Members this creates a set of issues. The LATAM market has played Alliance musical chairs for some time. Already Latin America is getting a little crowded with STAR members:

COPA (who will become part as they are aligned with Continental now a STAR player), TACA who could become part of STAR. TAM was formerly aligned with American.

Avianca - the other international brand of TACA/Avianca group is aligned with Delta but not formally aligned with anyone else.

Mexicana was once part of STAR with United's help. Last year it formally joined Oneworld. However in its troubles the partners there did not lift a finger to assist Mexicana as they had to assist troubled Japanese carrier JAL. With the collapse of the airline and filing for bankruptcy - the alliance membership is likely at the very least in question. The recent downgrade of the Mexico Airspace by the US FAA has resulted in all US carriers pulling code share flight numbers. No US Carrier can put their code on a Mexican airlines' flights until the raising of the category.

About the only stable player in all of this has been Aeromexico with their small but steady participation in Skyteam.

This is going to leave GOL as a much courted partner by all three alliances as they each try to figure out what the new world order map will resemble. And what about the rest? I believe there will be a number of airlines who will now seek to combine together to create more formal groupings to combat the sheer size and market power of the new LATAM group.

For the attendant and dependent players particularly PSS and GDS vendors such as Amadeus and Sabre - there will be a hotly contested market for distribution and Airline IT. In my view, direct distribution now becomes a much more viable proposition with the extensive reach of these airline partnerships. One thing is for sure - the money men will be sharpening their pencils while legacy GDS lawyers run to their contracts and see what they can salvage.

Cheers

Scholarly Discussion For A Friday

On Jet Blue Flight Attendants, Michael O'Leary's personal habits, Dead Puppies and Stupid Unions.

The professor is part of an esteemed panel of guests discussing Airline Foibles and Tribulations.

Cheers

JetBlue Flight Attendant - Criminal or Folk Hero?

By now most of you know the story of Mr Slater and his temper.

In some sectors he has been immortalized for his actions as a folk hero.

Let's be clear about this one. He is a criminal and should go to jail.

He abused a position of trust and placed a number of people in serious jeopardy of injury and even (in the case of ramp workers possible death). I don't say this to dramatize the issue but to highlight that someone could have been killed by the explosive deployment of the chute. His protestations to say he took care about deploying the chute show the action was premeditated and therefore deliberate in putting his co-workers (on the ramp) at huge risk.

Mr Slater in my book is a criminal and should be locked up in jail for his actions. I believe there are more than a few regulations and laws he contravened not least of which showed he could be classified as a domestic terrorist.

For once I agree with Donald Trump.

Cheers

UK Market Source Traffic Woes

The UK market still shows a decline. It is not rising to the level pre-2008 and there are some companies who are failing.

So far this year we have had 12 ATOL failures (CAA Figures). While not as bad as last year - for the recovery year this is not healthy.


But this is not all. Thomas Cook reported this week that its numbers are way down. The Official HMG stats also show a decline of 9% in the April-June quarter outbound travel.

So guys message to Unite - now is not a good time to strike..

Cheers

Who Do You Trust And Why in Social Media?

Well it isn't really the Tweeters. Nor is it brands.

People trust what they know personally or have a connection to. This is borne out by the study recently made by Invoke Solutions and quoted in a recent study by eMarketer.

And then perhaps even more interesting to me was the analysis of what inspires trust in Social Media.



My conclusion from all this is that Tweets are going (if not already have become) a lot of noise. I use Tweetdeck to see what's happening but frankly I find it all tiresome and my views on it are decreasing. I go for weeks without looking at it - unless I am feeling narcissistic!

US Sen. Ted Stevens - RIP

It seems that fate sometimes strikes twice. For the second time Former US Senator Ted Stevens, it did not smile brightly. He was killed on Monday Evening in a plane crash in the State, Alaska, that he loved and served.

He had survived a plane crash in 1978 that took the life of his first wife. Sadly he died in a plane crash this week in a 1957 vintage DHC-3T Turbo Otter.

A towering figure in the US legislature for more than 40 years, he had a huge impact on aviation and obviously the State of Alaska before being ousted under a cloud in 2008.

Stevens loved to fish, and loved airplanes, and "if he had to die — I think this is the way he would have wanted it: in Alaska's bush, on the way to catch salmon," said John Iani, a Seattle attorney raised in Kodiak, Alaska, and a longtime friend.

Customer Service That's Speedy - That's Clearwire

Having been spammed for long enough by Clearwire - who sold me a product I could not use! - I have been trying to opt out of their emails.

Finally I get the option to opt out.

Here is the response.

I thought you would like the time lines

Cheers

More Scary Google Things

Seems my day for finding scary things in the Googlesphere

In logging into Google Maps it asked me if I wanted to load an alternative mail address.

The one it had was for SOMEONE completely NOT me.

Scary!

WSJ Gets Its Headline Wrong - Google Agonized Over Privacy, But Obviously Not For Long

READING NOTE - the links require FLASH so hard luck iPad users.

It agonizes no more....

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting piece on Google agonizing over the use of its treasure trove of data on what we all do in the Googlesphere. The headline reads:

Google Agonizes on Privacy as Ad World Vaults Ahead

Well boys and girls - clearly it worries no more.

But time for you to do some homework dear reader.

Go to the WSJ and check out the story. Also click on the link for interactive is you want to see the continuing and mushroom cloud growth of the Googlesphere.

Now I could not find the actual doc - I am sure it will show up soon enough - but here are the extracts.

So given the piece I did yesterday - I would suspect that now would be the time to be somewhat - make that a lot - afraid of the power of the Google Blob.

For all of us we have to get a handle on the difference between privacy (and abuse thereof) and personalization. Its a fine and difficult line to draw.

Cheers

New Delta Website - Needs Work

So the reason for my frustration with Delta's website yesterday was due to the fact they were putting the new site up.

Congrats - it actually works. However I would like to have the old one back again please.

The login is a little more clunky. OK I can live with that. There is no where to indicate that by entering the city exposes a new set of choices on what type of trip I can book.

They do go on to tell me how much they have changed and how the benefits are therefore me....

Let me give you an example...

Here is what they tell you...

SkyMiles Dashboard: See your mileage balance at a glance—and if you're a Medallion member, you can see exactly how close you are to reaching the next Medallion level.

Hmmm not so. So probably that is crashing right now because this is what I see when I click on skymiles (and yes I have tried it in 4 browsers so its the same).



As you can see although they know I am a platinum member - they are asking me to join Skymiles. Oh dear! In fairness to DL - they do say that they are working on it.

My assessment after an initial spin around the website is as follows:

The top level nav is good. The rest of the website is largely unchanged. So the other elements are familiar. There are new ad serving opportunities that didn't exist before.

As to the core value of providing access to the results I want to see... well that is unchanged. The resulting system still works on a hard and fast LOWEST POSSIBLE result without allowing me to shop with different parameters. Thus the ITA shopping engine in Orbitz offers much better results that I cannot get through either the schedule or pricing path inside the DL site. So in my opinion the ITA QPX engine is superior to the Travelport engine used on the DL website. Sabre's engine which is getting rarer these days still powers the Travelocity site and gives more options but not necessarily better results.

Its also pretty slow. But this is the first day so I hope it gets better but initial analysis indicates the pages are very heavy to load.

So at present I give DL a failing grade and I want the old site back. It seems this is going to be a work in progress for a while as they go through the whole site and fix things

Right now there is a LOT of things to fix. Basic logic is failing. However I persevered and was able to make a booking. Delta should be giving free upgrades to everyone who tried to book and failed.

Cheers

Keep The Internet Free And Open - Say NO to Google and Verizon Scheme

It seems my post yesterday on questioning Google's capacity for good and evil - may be more relevant than even I have been thinking.

We should all be ardent supporters of an open and free Internet. Well it seems that Google and one of its henchmen think that there is a new definition of net neutrality. One in which there will be a two speed internet. The plebs and the elite.

The Seattle Times, normally a right wing paper, even took time out from its review of the local election candidates to devote its lead editorial to the subject.

Google must be stopped in developing a closed part of the web.

As the headline in the Times said - we must - absolutely "Keep the Internet open, accessible, creative"

Cheers

With Acknowledgement to Raymond Fong for the use of the image. Check out his blog on a separate Google issue. ore of the same?

Lazy Marketing - British Airways Style

I like to think the best of people and organizations. Its perhaps a naive belief that people don't actively do wrong but getting lazy means that some just don't try hard enough to do what is right.

So allow me to pick on British Airways today.

BA knows a lot about me. It knows my favorite airport (I explicitly filled out a form that stated that). It knows my email address. Heck it even knows to force the use of a particular browser to open the email.

So why does it persist in sending me an offer that is a flagrant come on?

So here are the "restrictions" as indicated by the asterisk.


TERMS AND CONDITIONS


1. Offer can be booked online at ba.com (flights only and discounted Hotels) or through a travel agent (flights only). If you book through a British Airways call center, you will be charged an additional $20 per ticket for processing.
2. $249 World Traveller (economy) fare shown is each-way based on round-trip, 7-day advance purchase, non-refundable, select economy class midweek (Monday-Wednesday) fares for outbound travel October 21 – December 19, 2010. from New York to London on British Airways services only.
3. World Traveller (economy) fares are from select US gateways to London on
British Airways services only for outbound travel September 02 – October 20, 2010 and October 21 – December 19, 2010.
4. The 2 free nights hotel accommodation is based on double, triple or quad occupancy at participating hotels for a maximum of 2 free nights, which must be taken on consecutive nights at the same hotel. The discount offer must be booked in the same transaction as round-trip transatlantic British Airways airfare, originating in the US only for travel September 02, 2010 – December 19, 2010. Single occupants are entitled to a maximum of 1 free night at participating hotels.
5. Fares may be higher from other US gateways and to other destinations.
6. Fares do not include government fees and taxes of approximately $165 and a $2.50 September 11th Security Fee.
7. $30 weekend travel surcharge (Thursday - Sunday) applies in each direction.
8. For new bookings only made August 10 - 19, 2010.
9. Refunds from previously purchased higher fare types not permitted.
10. 7-day advance purchase required.
11. Minimum stay is Saturday night. Maximum stay is 11 months.
12. Changes to flight only itineraries booked in World Traveller (economy) are permitted, prior to the ticketed departure time of each flight for a fee of $275, subject to availability. The itinerary will be re-priced using fares in effect on the date the ticket is reissued and must meet all rule provisions of the newly ticketed fare.
13. Any changes to your hotel booking during the promotional period will be subject to a $25 amendment fee per change, per booking and are subject to availability. If changed travel dates result in higher rates, you will be charged the additional amount.
14. Any changes to your hotel booking after the promotional period will result in you forfeiting the free nights offer and your booking will be re-priced at the published rates at that time.
15. Please refer to airfare rules of flights selected before completion of payment.
16. Executive Club members can earn BA Miles per the terms and conditions of the
Executive Club.
17. Infant without seat will pay 10% of adult fare. Child discount will allow for a child to pay 80% of the adult fare.
18. Unaccompanied minors permitted for a $75 surcharge each way for flight only bookings.
19. Open to US residents paying in US dollars only, with travel originating in the US.
20. Subject to availability.
21. Cannot be combined with any other offer.
22. Other significant restrictions may apply.

And let's not forget the email was unsolicited. And yet they ask - er - let me correct that - they TELL me that this is confidential and then threatens me thus.

This email is intended solely for the addressee(s) and the information it contains is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient (a) please delete this email and inform the sender as soon as possible, and (b) any copying, distribution or other action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance upon it is prohibited and may be unlawful.

C'mon BA - let's play nice. You can do a WHOLE lot better than this.

So here is the actual lowest price - I have highlighted Seattle.



Start by taking the extra time and telling me what the REAL airfare is from my home airport, not NYC.

Cheers

Deaf, Dumb and Blind., Airlines and Passengers

I hope that Robert Cole will allow me to steal his idea for a Blog post and then elaborate on it.

On his Rock Cheetah Blog he did a nice piece on his experience with several airlines.

I am an unabashed airline geek, - in truth a kerosene junky. But I like to work in the breadth of the Travel Industry. There is nothing like it on the planet. But it never ceases to amaze me at the ineptitude of the airlines and sadly also their passengers. Which came first - the chicken or the egg. Dumb airlines or Dumb passengers?

Let's start with the Dumb Airlines... What I like about the European rules on customer behaviour - is that they are unambiguous. Pretty clear and straightforward. You either comply or you can't fly. Simple enough. Generally the performance of the airlines in Europe since the enactment in 2004 has improved from the prior behaviour. Most people in Europe have forgotten the awful summer of 2000 and 2001 when delays and strikes crippled travel across the continent. I agree with Robert - that things could go a lot better. But we all know that there is a clear set if issues that are theoretical that people debate ad nauseam.

Things like the above image - represents about 45 mins of trying to get the Delta website to behave. Yes this included me restarting my browser, clearing cookies and even restarting my PC. This is of course insulting. You know the engine is down - why not tell me rather than pissing me off and letting me get to the end and then see the failure. Grrrr

The latest edition of ATW has gone into a bit of Government bashing. Perry Flint made some pretty good points in his editorial. And I concur that there needs to be some measure of rationality applied to the debate.

For many years the ubiquitous "Weather Delay" or delays caused by the "late arrival of the inbound aircraft..." are the all too familiar refrain over the PA system. In my travels around Europe and the USA over the past few years I hear it less in Europe now than in the USA. its just the same problem - but finding someone to blame is always the answer. Airline just try to get more creative about their excuses. What I do like is when the pilot comes on and tells you the whole story. Somehow it is more reassuring coming from the Pilot - and the airlines do this rather than having their gate agents give the information WHEN the passenger could do something about it.

So let me talk about dumb passengers. And yes there are one heck of a lot of them.

I have this strong feeling that there should be an aptitude test before people are allowed in airports. This should cover, well the basics...

1. Can you tell your left from your right?
2. Can you hear?
3. Can you walk in a straight line with your bag and not block the aisles?

But there is one class of player who deserves to be singled out and shown for being fly in the ointment.

That entity is the airport management.

Last week I had a tight connection between many gates in MSP. I managed (with 9 mins to spare) to catch an electric cart near my arrival gate and persuaded him to drive me to the remote gate. With all due deference to the poor guy driving - I doubt he could have passed the regular driving test. Couple with the fact that the airports have done away with any form of horn or ding dong bell and the real culprit - the tight avenues now blocked with shops and merchandise for the airport to raise money for the city coffers. But the real kicker was when started shouting for people to move out of the way - the poor driver (sic) said I could not do that or he would lose his job. When asked why - he told me that in the main shopping areas he was not allowed to do that and could get some form of demerit for doing it or allowing one of his passengers to do it.

In truth we need a degree of understanding on all sides. We need the passengers to be better prepared. We need the airline (AND their contractors/surrogates) to be more truthful about what is really happening. And we need the airport authorities to do their part also. The air transport system is very complex and there are a number of moving parts. But before we throw all the rocks at the airlines - lets not forget the bad airport managers and the dumb passengers. Oh yes - and don't forget the regulatory bodies. It takes those guys to really mess up.

Let he that is without sin cast the first stone....

Cheers

Login Recovery

This is a tip...

When you are really in deep kaka and you cannot remember that password. And you changed the domain to work group on that old XP machine... yes Virginia there is a Santa.

Its called www.loginrecovery.com

You need 2 pcs and a connection to the web. Also you need $35 or some European equivalent. Badly they don't tell you about that till the end... but never mind at this point.

Its really useful and I am glad I used it. For Free....

It lists all the major user names on your PC and fortunately from one of the ones I forgot I was able to re-open the machine.

So THANKS guys. And no I am not sending you the money but in recompense here is a blog entry promoting your wonderful service.

Cheers

Is Google Intentionally Evil, Forgetful, Careless or Just Plain Lazy?

With the news today that Google was killing WAVE - its second major kill of a product/project in 60 days - Nexus One was the other - one has to start to think of Google as being less than altruistic.

In Google's Philosophy its famous ten things, number 6 always sits in front of me.

6. You can make money without doing evil.

Somehow I have a hard time with thinking that this statement has become increasingly hollow. It seems that every time it strays from number 2 it gets a bloody nose.

2. It's best to do one thing really, really well.

I was chatting with a friend of mine who was a rabid anti-Redmondian. He adopted almost everything Google did. Google docs, Android, etc etc. Just lately he has had this feeling he is being watched. I dont think he is a conspiracy theorist but he sent me this story.

He was having a private conversation with one of his family discussing a vision issue. The headline of the email exchange was as seen in the image.

The process of having Google serving up ads to me in my email is frankly abhorrent. If there was anything more unsubtle and evil - this is it. If you are OK with Google capturing all this data for just and "not evil" purposes then go ahead live that way. I am just having a hard time about it.

Google is crushing just about all before it. And now its stepping into Travel in a big way. More power to them for doing that but remember this is the company that likes to Beta and Beta and Beta...... how long exactly was Gmail in beta?

And this is from the same company who Oops I did it again, was very contrite when caught with their hands in the Wifi scanning cookie jar over StreetView.

Google has enormous capacity for good, and as we keep finding evidence thereof - evil.

Sometimes it is good to remind them that they should perhaps take a responsibility for their own actions and actually be a responsible corporate citizen and member of the planet earth.

Till someone convinces me that Google really is out for good, I will remain a tad skeptical. And for sure I am going to be watching what they do and continuing to point out their bad behaviour. And the answer to my question... answer (e) all of the above.


Cheers

NOTE: This Blog was written in Blogger. The image came from Google Images and I believe the copyright belongs to Mr Myers.

Mirror Mirror On The Wall Who Is The Fairest Of Them All?

If you look at the meta search sites and try and determine which one is best for you... there are a number of subjective criteria. But which tool is best? Who actually serves up the best fares for the consumer?

According to the Sunday Times of London it's Momondo. Congrats to Thorvald and the team in Copenhagen for this honour. Runners up were Kayak and Skyscanner.

However - I will use this opportunity to pick on the subject matter and its inadequate value that results in a poor user experience.

In my alter ego's life, my team have been working on result optimization. As those deeply involved in Search and IBEs know this is a subject matter that is incredibly complex. There are just so many variables.

In looking at the problem there have been two major variable elements which contribute to the quality of the results.

The search system (which covers a lot of areas of the technology)
The source data

In recent years the quality of the technology in search has improved significantly. However the quality of the data and the manner of which it is stored, served and refreshed has not become any better.

So you can have a great engine and lousy data, a great data store and a lousy engine resulting in untrustworthy results.

Then of course there is the result that just is different from the one that you buy. For a consumer anything that is less than 100% spot on represents a lack of trust. I spoke to Jim Young (formerly Marketing Head at Frontier Airlines and now the Honcho at Open Axis Group) in April about this problem. He had an interesting perspective on the issue. Per their research at F9, they could get to a three 9s (99.9%) accuracy if they had a $1 tolerance level for the GDSs. For a 1 cent tolerance level - the number dropped to just over 80%. (Prof note - this was before the merger with Midwest and Republic so I expect this has gone down significantly since then).

In my analysis of the problem the complexity of the solutions and the loose adoption of rules have shown that there are a lot of right answers. These are not false positives they are actually right and valid. These range from elements like the tax tables used, the order of the calculations and the translation of currencies. In several tests we have run this can mean up to 20-25% differential in pricing. More noticeable at the lower total price level than at the higher priced tickets.

With increased complexity of taxes (The US is going to implement another increase in September for visitors) and the introduction of ancillary services and the somewhat shady use of taxes masquerading as really airline fees (like fuel surcharges) - this is not going to get any better.

And don't expect any valid benchmarking to happen any time soon. All attempts thus far have resulted in failure or some self serving results. Each GDSs for example claims their pricing engine is the best.

A little bit of history, when the Professor used to work at one GDS in the 1980s and 1990s - we saw that our pricing in comparison test results sucked vs the others. We had a low tolerance for failure and demanded that our engine adhere strictly to the rules. We found that that the other players didn't quite do that. When we loosened the rules and matched them - the resulting improvement in our pricing engine was dramatic. No one was actually doing wrong but manipulating the rules resulted in lower fares and prices for the consumer.
The airlines who owned us were not very happy about it initially but in the long run were ok with it. The alternative was paying more fees to the other GDSs and losing opportunities for sale.

So the answer is this is a war of biblical proportions. And you can see why Google with its patina of global trust wants to have at this problem.

Anyone serving up fares in this market is probably quaking at what Google can do now with ITA's search/pricing engine and certified data sources. I bet the GDS old timers are now kicking themselves for their short sighted view of not responding to the airlines need for a solution that ultimately allowed ITA to exist.

But remember my opening statement. It is about the definition of subjective criteria.

So the fairest of them all depends almost invariably as to who is looking in the mirror....

Cheers

Expedia Alum Enters Politics

I live in Seattle and the area where I live has something of a deadbeat Congressman. Dave Riechart whose claim to fame was he was the head lawman in the region. However after 3 terms in Congress he has distinguished himself as one of the least effective of the nation's lawmakers.

Today's Seattle Times was a lot less circumspect in their endorsement of his competitors. Endorsing not one but two! One being Tom Dillon who is an Ex-Expedia...

Have a read

Cheers

Trust Must Be Earned And Kept At Every Interaction

HSBC has been running ads in its Different Values campaign for many years. Those of us who spend time in international airports cannot help but see them - they appear in just about every jetway i have walked down for years. I keep wanting them to do an image based on Trust. But so far haven't seen one.

Trust is a fleeting thing. Just as Toyota and Palm.

Trust in Travel has never had a high level in my view. Much of it has been because there was little trust engendered by the PR hacks in their descriptions of products and services. In an industry that depends largely on obfuscation as core concept - Trust is a hard thing to deliver.

A great piece from eMarketer today reminds us about several characteristics. It covers a number of recent studies from Neilsen and others. its a quick read and is a good aide memoir.


Perhaps the two characteristics that I feel are critical are:

1. Trust has to be earned and kept at all times.
2. Trust does not come from interaction. It is an additional element.

The assumption that frequent interaction results in Trust is a mistake that is made worldwide. You need only to consider that there are some things you have to do (like reading this blog everyday) but you don't have to trust it or even like it to use it.

Travel Marketers - just DON'T forget that.

Seismic Shift in UK Airlines

Several events in the UK have come together to change the way that the airline product is bought and sold in the market. Thomson has announced that effective November 1st it is cutting commission on flight only sales to 0.1% from the old standard 10%. It is thus just retaining the ability to pay commissions. At the same time it is ending is ATOL bonding of the flight only product.

"This decision has not been taken lightly but in making the amendment, we recognise the flight only landscape has altered greatly in recent years and Thomson Airways is competing with both traditional charter airlines and also other scheduled carriers," said the airline.

The challenge to the ATOL bonding was a battle the CAA who manages the scheme for the UK Government apparently lost a few weeks ago in the UK High Court. The now landmark case the CAA brought against Travel Republic (the UK Supreme Court refused to hear the appeal on July 29th), has effectively ended the traditional Tour Operator coverage for Flight Only sales. The longer term effect is that the charter seat only business is dead and replaced by a more normalized approach to the sale of flights. The distinction has been moot for a long time anyway. The former seat only carriers such as Thomson, Monarch and Thomas Cook with their respective airline brands are now free to compete directly with the LCCs and conventional airlines.

What is not clear is how the non-carrier seat only operators like KISS will be able to operate. That remains unclear.

The long term impact will be that these airlines will now operate a hybrid model but will look much more like a true LCC operator. In turn this will open up competition in the market which will be good for the consumer.

So the storied history of the seat operator market in the UK is no more.

An interesting side note is that this will be welcomed by the US companies such as Expedia who have been sniffing around the tour operators and remaining VTO players in both the UK and Germany. ATOL bonding and their airline operations have always made them nervous.

Finally this will put pressure on the UK government and the CAA for the whole bonding coverage. In light of other activities it may just be time for Her Majesty's Government to get out of the insurance business and return to regulatory activities.

Cheers







With thanks to widebodies.nl for the picture.

Geolocation Doesn't Worry the Young

The recent stories on security concerns with Geolocation software attached to your phone doesn't seem to worry the young as much as older women.

The value of Geolocation services make the context of the offers and your ability to extend your wired life to a 7x24 always on environment has great attraction.

Emarketer has just done a piece on assessing the attitudes based on Forrester's Research. Frankly while it scares me a bit - the future looks pretty bright because the younger users dont worry.

Lord help us when we start to see real mobile spam...

Yuk!

Cheers

4 For 4. Delta Shows Wifi In flight Is here To Stay

On my first trip back from my holiday - I took a connecting flight itinerary. 4 flights in 3 days all on Delta.

And yes every flight had Wifi and it was all great.

So I feel the time has come for the world to just accept that InFlight Wifi does work. My seat mates were also connected. The equipment ranged from Blackberries to iPhones to iPads and of course various brands of laptops.

Yup we are now connected in the air. Now if only they can make money out of it.

Cheers

Blackberry Standoff - Who Will Win? Are They Right? How About a Solution?

In a world where information flows freely and access to content has never been easier we should all be concerned at those governments who seek to demand free access to our data and information.

So the standoff between RIM vs UAE, KSA and India over the access to the encryptions standards of RIM is a very worrying trend. At the heart of the matter is the ability to encrypt data traffic and protect data.

Most smartphones like Apple and Android devices have very poor encryption and as a result anyone sending messages from these devices can have their data and text messages hacked. AND their location easily made available. If you want to read a sobering report on the subject go here.

With recent reports of the easy (and low cost) methods of hacking cell phone traffic becoming more prevalent - the need for secure services like Blackberry grow.

I sign a lot of NDAs and keep a lot of information confidential. I use my email smartphone - a Blackberry - to communicate under the terms of those agreements. If I am forced to use unprotected communication I will be in violation of the said agreement. This is unacceptable to me and to the people who trust me.

In my view Blackberry is right to keep the data secure.

So here is an idea and thought for resolving the problem. If RIM and the respective governments agree to a private data viewing capability under strict control and with full cognizance of the individuals who are using the service then I am OK with letting the respective governments see what I have. I will of course be very careful not to let those governments see data I don't want them to see.

So here is a challenge to the governments who are asking for open access to Blackberrys just like they can to iPhones and Android devices. I'll let you see my data so that you can be assured I am not doing anything bad. But you have to assure me that you can monitor your own people and protect my data once you have it.

Deal or No Deal?

Cheers

C'mon Gimme Some....

USA TODAY(August 5th) came out with an interesting perspective that addresses the Ancillaries view.

SmartBrief - the ASTA (American Society for Travel Agents) daily newsletter had a slightly interesting spin by stating "Travel agents push for share of fees". And this there is nothing wrong with that. I think the revenue should be shared. If the agents are doing some work - then let them get compensated... but by whom? Currently the airlines are not paying the agents formally for issuing tickets. The agents are getting compensated by their clients. Except the OTAs stopped charging fees for handling flights. A fact they trumpet and have had great success in doing so. The share of booking processed by Online Agents has actually risen in no small measure because of the no fees policies.

At present this seems to indicate that the OTAs are doing just fine with the model and so does the consumer. While we all know that the process is not necessarily pleasant the amount of information out there is clearly not impeding the purchase of travel.

So a part of the debate must be whether it is actually necessary to go for detailed disclosure or all information or rather if the disclosure process currently in place is sufficient.

There just seem to be a large number of people complaining about the issue and not all of them making complete sense. This applies to politicians and industry players alike.

So if I can quote a little Hamlet:

Hamlet: Madam, how like you this play?
Queen: The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
Hamlet Act 3, scene 2, 222–230

Cheers

Cathay and Emirates Aircraft Choices

Same aircraft different reasons. Both are big purchasers of 777-300ER and the A350-900.

In the recent pronouncements from Tim Clark - he has opined that Boeing need not fear from the (as yet) not launched A350XWB-1000 and that it needs a new 777-300ER replacement.

Cathay's Tony Tyler in announcing their big order for the A350-900s praised the aircraft as being ideal for CX implying that the aircraft will eventually become the mid size mainstay of its fleet.

So this is interesting. Clearly the battle lines are drawn. Will Boeing listen hard to Mr Clark as they have in the past - will Airbus go a little further with a A350-1100?

What a conundrum for Toulouse and Chicago.

If BTC Regulated the Sale of Airline Provided Paint

DISCLAIMER THIS IS INTENDED AS HUMOUR.

Background: BTC (Business Travel Coalition) and others have been demanding that the airlines are forced to disclose their ancillary services and fees structures in all channels equally. So the Professor has imagined what would happen if BTC was in charge of consumer regulation when airlines sold paint.

With thanks to Charlie Leocha for reprinting the oldie but goodie original joke “If Airlines Sold Paint”. http://www.consumertraveler.com/today/if-airlines-sold-paint/

Opening Scene. A small local paint shop in main street USA. Man goes the Shop opens the door…. Outside the store are disclaimer signs in 6 point type warning you to the safety and pricing policies of paint. There is also a HUGE video display in the shop window not with attractive paint cans or uses for paint but with rolling rather stern dire warning information scrolling across the screen. It gives the consumer specific instructions on how to buy paint in online and offline. There are a list of places with maps and URLs showing where you can buy paint and the prices of paint at each place. There is so much information the board takes 5 mins to scroll the info which is illegible anyway. There is a Federal watchdog email address and website address prominently displayed on the signs outside the door, on the door and displayed throughout the store. On each paint can is a big warning like a cigarette pack health warning. Attached to each paint can is a 4 page booklet.

Man (looking a little bewildered) approaches a smiling Shop Clerk. The Previous customer storms out looking very angry dragging a balling kid behind her.

Customer asks: can I buy some….

Clerk: Before you say anything sir – I am obliged to tell you that you can buy paint online and offline. Before I can tell you anything about the paint please sign here that you understand that I am going to tell you about paint and that you understand I may forget to tell you everything about paint so this absolves me from making a mistake and my boss from taking the cost of the paint out of my paycheck… Please sign here (Handing customer a clip board with a 2 page disclaimer, man signs it without reading it)….. thank you.

Clerk: Now how can I help you on this truly fabulous day?

Customer: Hi. How much is your paint?

Clerk: Well sir, that depends on a lot of things and the government makes me tell you that there are possible surcharges here is a list of them (Handing a 4 page booklet). Please read this….

Customer: (Mutters under his breath – this is ridiculous) – out loud says: Can’t you give me an approximate price?

Clerk: Our lowest price is our introductory special at $12 a gallon. After that we have dozens of different prices up to $199. Plus the ancillary services fees based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: What’s the difference in the quality of the paint?

Clerk: Oh, there’s no difference. It’s all exactly the same stuff. But as you can see the cans are very different. Don’t you like the way the paint can sparkles?

Customer: Well, in that case I’ll take your $12 paint.

Clerk: Well actually the $12 variety is only available on our website. If you want to buy it here at the store you’ll be charged an additional $20 Customer Convenience Fee. Plus the ancillary services based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: So if I go home and get it off the website, its only $12?

Clerk: That’s correct sir – plus a Credit Card Usage Fee of $6 and then there’s standard Shipping and Handling of $15. Plus the ancillary services based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: What? So in other words buying online would cost me almost exactly the same as what I’d have to pay here in the store?

Clerk: I suppose so, but if you buy it here you get to use it immediately. Online purchases take ten business days to get to you – unless you pay the optional $25 Express My Paint Fee. Plus the ancillary services fees based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: You’ve got to be kidding me!

Clerk: Well no sir, but it’s academic anyway as right now the $12 paint is completely sold out in both places.

Customer: That’s BS. I’m looking at shelves full of the stuff!

Clerk: Ah, but that doesn’t mean it’s available for sale. We sell only a certain number of introductory priced cans on any given day. Hang on a second let me look it up, (Clerk looks at his computer and then smiles broadly) YES look at that! It just became available again – at $17.50. You can do the same search yourself Sir. Plus the ancillary services fees based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: C’mon! You mean to say it went up while I’m standing here?!

Clerk: (looking sympathetic) ‘Fraid so. Inventory control changes our prices all the time. I would actually like to sell you the paint but the Government says I have to wait till everybody has been told what the new price is. I strongly recommend you purchase your paint as soon as possible as it could go up again, but it’s also possible that it could go down and even not be available again. Finally the government might not let me sell it to you until everyone has been informed of whether the paint price has been checked by this mysterious organization called the BTC. How many gallons do you want?

Customer: Well, maybe three gallons. No, make that four, I don’t want to run out. I assume I can return anything I don’t open?

Clerk: Certainly sir. The $17.50 paint is non-refundable, but if you return it within 48 hours you will be entitled to a $5 credit towards the future purchase of another gallon of the same color at the same or higher price. Plus the final price may change because of the ancillary services based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand.

Customer: That’s crazy. In that case I’ll just give any unopened cans to my brother as he’s planning to repaint his home soon.

Clerk: Sorry sir, no-CAN-do! Our terms and CANditions – that’s a little in-house joke – prohibit paint transfer. It is strictly for the use of the original purchaser. Also the Government doesn’t like competition they need to know where you use the paint so that they can tell everyone in your street that you bought the paint and have used it.

Customer: But wait a minute, I hadn’t spotted those “Paint Sale – $9.99* a Can” signs over there? They are hidden behind all these notices, it makes it so difficult to see an actual price off... That sounds like a much better deal.

Clerk: Ah yes, that’s from our low cost paint division. The Government doesn't actually want to let me tell you about that as it would take too long to explain but we won court case and so we can no have the sign up. However i have to disclose a different set of rules, the asterisk denotes that the cans are actually half-gallons and the price is based on a minimum purchase of two. There is also an additional Environmental Fee of $5 per can – this is required because we use that nice sparkly resin to make the paint cans look nice – we have to pay a special fee because its made of red lead, a non-refundable Can Deposit of $3.50, a Paint Facility Charge of $5 and if you want more than one color, the second has a $25 surcharge and the third is $50 extra. Plus….

Customer: Yes – I know … Plus the ancillary services based on how you use the paint that the government makes me warn you about beforehand……This is utterly ridiculous. To hell with this! I’ll buy what I need somewhere else! Now at least I know I can buy it elsewhere – see here it says so in the booklet you handed me earlier.

Clerk: Well sir, you may be able to buy paint for some rooms from another store, but you won’t be able to find paint for your connecting hall and stairway anywhere but here. And I should also point out that if you want Uni-Directional paint it is priced at $249 a gallon. But that paint is special – you don’t have to tell the Government what you want to use it for.

Customer: I thought your most expensive paint was $199!

Clerk: That’s only if you paint non-stop all the way around the room and back to the point at which you started. Stairways and hallways are considered one-way exceptions to the rule. Plus you must notify the government when you move from one room to the other.

Customer: So, if I buy the $199 paint and use it in my hallway what are you going to do about it – send some goons in to paint over it?

Clerk: Wow, You are WAY smarter than the last guy who came in, I believe you’re getting it now sir. But no, please, that would be plain silly. We’ll simply charge you a Direction Adjustment Fee plus the difference to $249 on your next purchase. Then the government would have to come and inspect it. You cannot use the room until they do. I should tell you that after consultation with their consumer panel which would be your neighbors and the inspector – this process may take about 3 months.

Customer: Next purchase? No way! I’m out ‘a here

Clerk: At Skyhigh Paints we never forget you have a choice, so thanks for shopping with us. Have a nice day! And Sir please mind your step as you pass by the disclaimer signs we had a guy in here yesterday who tripped on it and wants to sue us for it…..

Travelport to Announce IPO Soon?

Ok the rumours are already flying... Travelport will make its announcement probably this week with their Q2 results. The announcement will come if its going to during the results call, scheduled for Thursday August 5th at 11AM EST.

In the past few days it has been ramping up its PR as a way to get some positive news into the market. This morning's mail box revealed a mailer for Travel Agents trumpeting the Continental Full Content Extension and on the website UA and TP announced their extension.

All this points to the announcement on Thursday. It first surfaced as a rumour on June 25th after the rather embarrassing pull back of its initial offering in London earlier this year. Amadeus got away nicely in Madrid so the stars should be aligned for Travelport.

Or maybe not...

Travelport still has some significant challenges. UDT - its star new product also called Universal Desktop now nearly 3 years late in deployment is not there yet. Early adopters trying to implement additional content are finding the interface and the data structures challenging. Its airline hosting business fails to excite and this is an essential part of a long term survival strategy for the core reservations based business. Its Orbitz partner/sibling/customer is also not setting the world on fire being squeezed out by the rise of Priceline.

The spin meisters will be working overtime to make the animal look good. But the investor community remains guarded. Enthusiasm for the deal was decidedly less than stellar with a strong set of issues on multiple levels that caused the collapse at the Feb 2010 IPO attempt in London. The fundementals of these issues have not gone away. The City Gnomes are not known for their forgiveness nor short term memory loss.

Greece (one of the reasons cited for the pull back) is just as sick if not worse. The retail climate is not as hot - retail sales failed to ignite the US market. But the investment climate is definitely better in the USA. Is that enough?

For investors who are still very weary of get rich quick schemes - they will be looking hard at what Travelport intends to do with the proceeds. If they are going for just debt retirement that will not be viewed positively. Savvy followers of the sector realize that there is a growing investment curve driven by the needs of the market for distribution of the unbundled airline products. Travelport has several areas that need investment such as its fare products as well as support of ancillaries. These are not trivial investments. With little airline reservation revenue supporting it - Travelport faces challenges.

Also worrying must be the amount of incentives and the resulting pressures on yields from increased marketing costs which are long term in nature. This was already highlighted in the Q1 results. The ability of some airlines to drive lower costs from their "Full Content" deals means that Travelport is more vulnerable to distribution pressures than Amadeus and Sabre are.

Of course the emergence of Google/ITA and new players such as Everbread in fare search systems challenge at a core level the concept of the legacy GDS that is the centerpiece of Travelport's business.

Travelport is therefore a riskier investment than its class members.

So this is definitely a story that will be interesting to watch. Let's see if the Professor is right.

Cheers

Mexicana And Mexico - A Case For Treatment

Seems that the problems in Mexico are growing rapidly.

Hot on the heels of Mexico being downgraded to a Category 2 country by the FAA, Mexicana pulled the plug on the largest Mexico travel market today - California. The LA Times reported the details.

Mexicana's owners the hotel group Posadas clearly have run out of patience with the reforms they feel are necessary. But that is not the only thing affecting Mexico's largest airline. The on-off again potential marriage with their some time sibling Aeromexico is another issue. But now the big threat is coming from the emergence of Volaris as a strong market force. Volaris is fast growing and resonating with the market. its support from Mexico's richest man - Carlos Slim - is not to be underestimated. Will MX file Chapter 11? this is being discussed in detail between the powers that be.

Mexico of course has been hurt by a number of internal and external factors. The global economy recession hit them hard. But the drug wars and bad publicity have further exacerbated issues for the country the #2 market in Latin America.

Let's hope they can get this sorted quickly.

Kicking The Crackberry Habit?

Those who know the Professor personally know how much I love my Blackberry.

I was an early adopter and am very dependent on it. It works and its marvelous in its simplicity. It is also VERY secure as the UAE has determined it doesn't like.

These days I love the email and I love the camera and of course BBM is great with my team. But JUST a little lately I have started to wonder if I am being a little out of touch by not having an iPhone or an Android machine. Actually a bunch of Crackberry users feel the same way. And its not just a few. Check out this article.

I tried a Nexus One. It was HORRID. Just awful. Sorry Google you suck. HTC's machine(s) is/are very elegant and work(s) much better but I have to say I have problems with the way the touch screen works. There is too little precision in using it for the prime reason which is email. Cool stuff is just not that interesting.

A few friends are members of the dark side - the iPhone black turtle neck groups - you know who you are.

So here are my issues before I change.

I want to avoid spending large sums of money when roaming...
I want decent functionality
I want simple and easy email and the ability to read and write
I want those nice functional applets
I want the sexy dual gesture touch screen
I want a working phone one that I can use to understand the person on the other end.
I want security of encrypted data
I want a decent web browser
I want a non-payable GPS
I want to be able to type accurately
I want a messaging system that is secure and status enabled.
I want to not have iPhone envy
I want not to have to fumble with the UX

So in looking at all the options I think I am fine with Blackberry 6 and the new device 9800 Torch.

Let me see if that works. But I am open to options. Also I am looking to replace my trusty SonyEricsson C902 which I loved as a simple fone. I am looking at the Xperia Mini.

Cheers

Why Do This? Another LCC for Thailand

Seems that there are not enough LCCs in IndoChina. So Thai Airways who already has a wholly owned and operated LCC business called NOK Air is now partnering with Tiger to create Tiger Thailand (try saying that after a few martinis).

You have to ask yourself why do this?

There are already a whole host of players in the market. Directly we have so many and then because BKK and HKT amongst others are so popular there are many additional players coming in.

So what gives... is this to prevent another squeeze play that has happened to Virgin Blue in Oz?

Gotta think this is not a smart move - but then who am I?

Cheers

How Big Ancillaries?

Depends who you ask.

According to the US government (GAO) - figures for 2009 come to at least $3 billion. But the DOT reports as quoted by PCW come to over $7.8 Billion Ideaworks and Amadeus say its going to be over $13 billion in 2010.

PhocusWright says as noted above - $7.8 of which nearly $3 billion are bags alone.

Anyway you cut it the numbers are getting bigger. If we take the Global flight revenues to be approx $500 Billion in 2009 - these numbers are starting to become serious contenders. According to ATW's annual survey of airlines - annual US average cost per ticket (pure air ticket revenue) fell to $227 in the fourth quarter. Down from $300 in 2000. With average ancillaries now making up averages of $50 plus per ticket - they are replacing airline tix revenue as a source of income for the airlines.

When distribution costs are factored in - then there is a pretty strong correlation between the cost to distribute a ticket and the additional revenues per ticket achieved. Coincidence?

Definitely this is a story that will play a long time. Organizations such as Charlie Leocha's and Kevin Mitchell's will continue to belly ache about it - even while supporting the airlines' need for additional revenues. While we all personally hate it - I think we as consumers will begrudgingly continue to accept it.

Cheers

2011 Growth Moderating

CAPA has done an analysis using a variety of different parameters but basing things on the 2010 ICAO estimates. This is broader than the IATA studies which tend to be focused on legacy carriers.

Anyway check it out.

Cheers

2009 A Bad Year For Airlines

Well so the numbers would seem to point out.

Both Flight Global and Air Transport World have pushed out their annual rankings.

The former used Seabury for much of its data - the latter used Ascend.

There are some really clear result trends that have emerged. I will pick on a few and will continue to explore them.

1. Airlines can make money out of Ancillaries.
2. Capacity restraint is key to maintaining profitability
3. Decline of the US market - domestic ASMs fell consistently.
4. Market volatility remains but seems to have reduced the amount of volatility.
5. Cargo has come back with a big bang
6. Premium Traffic is returning although yields remain a problem all round
7. Beware Emirates
8. Low Cost model is very healthy thank you
9. Reformation of the basic cost model is still lagging.

There are a lot of changes coming.

Cheers

Who Tweets?

After a nice long time away from home on a re-invigorating but not necessarily relaxing time in Europe - I have been catching up on some oldies and goodies stuffed in my inbox.

One question that keeps bugging me is who are the Twits (aka those who Tweet a lot)? And with apologies to Roald Dahl, there are some interesting stats to determine this. I am going to bias you a little by telling you who I think are the Twits.

In my view Tweeting is not a completely bad thing - but it definitely is not a great thing.

What bugs me is that there is no ability to determine on my part what I get. Actually that is not completely true - I can use Tweetdeck or something else as that tool. But my gripe is that I cannot filter the stream of trash that people Tweet on. And that may be both its beauty as well as its Achilles Heel.

HBR published some research by one of Havard's students last year on the topic. While the study was looking at the trend of who follows - the final statement was interesting from my perspective.

" In other words, the pattern of contributions on Twitter is more concentrated among the few top users .... This implies that Twitter's resembles more of a one-way, one-to-many publishing service more than a two-way, peer-to-peer communication network."

In my view the value is that you can reach a lot of people with the tool. However what goes into the message and who reads it becomes almost impossible to filter. Indeed in that case it is more like a conventional media outlet than a 2 way communication. Little wonder then that it has endeared itself to either sycophants and their followers or commercial entities.

For a more indepth view of Who Tweets Arbitron and Edison Research click on this link.

You have to register but the report is free.

There are some great fun facts. 40% of Twits are seriously sad people with at least 3 working PCs in their home. And their top 3 TV programs are"

American Idol
Glee
Teen Choice Awards

Therefore I can conclude that most Tweets come from zit emboldened male teens who spend way too much time on their computers.

But you be the judge... its all a bit too weird for me.

Cheers

Mexico Gets Downgrade - On Air Safety Standards

The Obama Administration has downgraded Mexico to Category 2. According to Reuters, The downgrade from Category 1 to Category 2 is not based on any safety practices at a specific airline. Category 2 typically means that aviation authorities have fallen short on technical expertise, personnel, record-keeping or inspection procedures.

So just watch out when flying to Mexico. And also watch out for some of the weasel words that will be used.

Cheers

Yes We Should Read The WikiLeaks Piece

I am an advocate for freedom of information. However the sheer volume of data in the Iraq WikiLeaks dossier is enough to turn anyone several shades lighter,

I do not condone the theft of information nor do I condone the bad acts and poor decisions that contributed to this mess. Worse is the cover up that occurred.

I first read about WikiLeaks in the New Yorker a few months back. Then I was introduced to Mr Assange. Its a balanced piece and obviously designed by the media savvy Mr Assange as part of his assault to get his story out.

So my exhortation to you is to read some of the dossier and draw your own conclusions. Its heady stuff. It makes for unsavory reading. However you understand that fighting the 21st century war is a very hard thing to do. And no you cannot do it in the public eye but you better be prepared for it when it gets out - as it always will.

Remember in the Internet EVERYONE can hear you scream...

Cheers

Passenger's Advocate Comes Under Fire

It is not often that you read a piece that essentially demolishes someone's credibility. And 3 web pages devoted to it at that. However it seems that the crusade of Kate Hanni is being impugned.

Travel Weekly which I love to read as my retro reading did a decent job of explaining the battle in the Hanni camp.

Personally I was rooting for her, I thought she had a good momentum. But it seems that she has somewhat blotted her copy book. One of the allegations against her is that she targeted Keith Mitchell. While the latter and I do not see eye to eye on just about anything - I do agree that the US should have passenger rights legislation. And so did Kate.

Let's hope there is a win here rather than a putting one person down to get the credit.

Cheers

The New Category: The Un-Fan

There is a certain legacy feel to life sometimes. Call them Luddites or just call them overwhelmed. But there is a large percentage of the population who just dont want to be your fan. And connect with you on Facebook. Nor do they want you to spam them with countless other messages.

I wrote about this earlier this month - I found another study that confirms my sentiment. This time eConsultancy has picked up the same theme. Check out this article from WebPro News. The eConsultancy piece examines the motivations and habits of consumers. Sorry but you have to pay for it... but its a good piece.

So I have created a new category called the un-fan. He/She has a pride place on my dart board and he makes me think of how to reach him and his colleagues.

You should too...

Cheers

ARC Data Shows Continued Slowing/Flat Growth

After the initial surge in bookings in the early months Jan till March, the US market appears to be stagnating. The Y/Y growth has slowed and actually in 2 of the 3 months declined. Much of this can be attributed to the activity of 2009. Check out ARC's data (you have to register).

But one thing is for sure, That capacity growth sure is not happening and the airlines are maintaining some significant control.

Will corporate travel come back in September... certainly I am anticipating a bump in traffic to occur from the business side. So too are the airlines it would seam. This time last year - according to my activity counter - we were deluged with offers from all airlines for Q3 deals. So far this time round, there is a significant quiet and lack of promos coming from the US airlines for the 3rd Quarter.

Cheers

Will They Or Wont They: Google and Travel Transactions

The debate over whether or not Google gets into the Travel Transaction business seems to haunt a lot of people. In my view - the issue is moot.

At the official news conference for the ITA acquisition, Chairman Eric Schmidt REFUSED to be deny that Google will not be in the Transaction business. The Charm offensive (that seems to be failing) studiously has the Google Acolytes saying no we are not going to get into the transaction business.

When I was at Expedia and we started our own charm offensive with the rest of the World - we (as then Microsoft) could not avoid the issue. But we downplayed the threat to the traditional agents. Internally of course we saw that the traditional agency channel was not that smart and therefore we could grab market share easily. That has been proven with the demise of the smaller agent and the rise of the OTA mega intermediary. The distribution pyramid looks dramatically different today than in 1996.

So my point about the issue being moot - is that Google doesn't have to be in the Transaction business. AT LEAST not in the conventional sense. I do agree that Google wont be manning call centers any time soon. But processing squillions of transactions in their cloud. Well don't say I didn't warn you.

Cheers

Airline Demand Strong, Now What?

This summer the airlines have shown a strong demand from the leisure sector. This has significantly reduced the availability of cheap seats and dramatically raised the pricing - at least in theory.

In practice that oh so subtle move towards ancillary revenues is beginning to pay off. Judging by Q2 profit announcements - the carriers doing not so well are few and far between. The ancillaries are powering many carriers - particularly the US and LCCs to greater profitability.

The weakest areas?

Asia Pacific with both JAL and ANA reporting losses is a prime example. But Chinese carriers are doing very nicely thank you.

And then there are BA and LH. LH has several carriers it is doing a good job on to reform. SN, OS, LX, BD. The core LH mainline we believe is doing better but a long way to go yet. LH still refuses to move at Ancillaries preferring to call itself a Premium Carrier. But still it has hedged its bets with control of German Wings. BA on the other hand is more of a basket case and Heathrow is increasingly becoming irrelevant. While the village of Sipson might be celebrating, the Gnomes of Whitehall must be fretting about how to avoid losing market share of International Traffic.

IF you take a peak at who has what - you have to think that the order books from Farnborough went largely to the lessors. Many of these guys must be betting that the US airlines will need to order new kit soon. But the long haul planes hardly took in any orders. Still 32+58 A380s flying around in EKs colours should scare the pants of just about any network planner.

Cheers

Air Berlin + OneWorld = What?

Like many other people, I went "Hub?" with the announcement of Air Berlin joining Oneworld.

I recognize that many people think that AB is a LCC carrier but it has been Hybrid for a long time and fails the classic categorizations - FF Program, Connections, GDS Participation, Full Service Flights, Premium Service etc etc. It does indeed operate 3 separate business models:
LCC like,
Regular/network services,
Charter carrier.

For a detailed look - go to Anan.Aero who has done a nice job in assessing the move.

So I can only think of two reasons.

Reason A - OneWorld wants a PR story as its a lite news week after Farnborough.

Reason B - OneWorld wants to tweak the nose of the Kaiser (aka LH).

Let me know if you can think of another reason

Cheers

The Phony War is Over. Google's Charm Offensive Fails

Yes Folks that nice gentlemanly manner of talking about the Google/ITA acquisition like its all OK boys seems to have ended. The real war (of words) is just starting and its not going to be nice.

In the one corner you have Google's Travel team out telling the world - don't worry be happy - its all good and we are not out for world domination. On the other hand you have the very clear picture that Google IS out to change the world, and those people who think its their world are none too happy about it.

Down Under Claire Hatton - Google's point person in Asia Pac for travel was quoted today in the Australian Edition of Travel Weekly with:

"Google: we won’t take on agents".

Yet at the same time in the Expedia (arguably the world's largest Travel Agent) Q2 results - Head man Dara was issuing dire warnings about the impact of the deal. On TNooz today:

Expedia CEO Dara Khosrowshahi told analysts during the company’s Q2 2010 earnings call late yesterday that the Google-ITA Software deal could have “very significant consequences” on the sector. Highlighting Google’s “considerable market power”, Khosrowshahi said one of the main areas which Expedia will be monitoring is whether the search giant favours its own content and results over those of existing advertising partners, “whether it’s algorithmic, inside their system or hard coded”.

So boys and girls there you have it. And its not blunderbusses at dawn - its all out war - there will be casualties and of course there will be collateral damage - that is going to affect a heck of a lot of people.

Dara did add that he was all right Jack: (Also from the same TNooz piece) “We’re very happy, especially with Google buying ITA, that we’ve got the BFS team and makes us worry a bit (sic) less about what the potential consequences of that transaction could be, at least for us.”

Let's see if his technology team really are up to the battle. Will Expedia create a coalition to combat this dire threat? Or if they will have to import some external help from say Eastern Europe to keep the dreaded Hun at bay?

This, my friends means that it is time to batten down the hatches and prepare for a long and arduous conflict for all of us.

Cheers

Reporting From Berlin - The Professor will be back to normal and full time next week.

The End of Airline Multi-Culturalism

One of the joys of working in and around the airline business was always the multi-cultural nature of its people. People who worked in an airline could come from different countries. In years gone by the airline personell in a particular country were often seen as the ambassador unofficial of that country. In many cases the airline’s local commercial and operational staff were pioneers and became a help to anyone – especially those visiting that country for the first time. Rumours used to abound that local staffers of Pan Am, TWA and Northwest were often secretly operatives of the CIA. BOAC local staffers were viewed as part of the Empire. And Air France local agents could be secret agents of the Sûreté.

The reverse was also often true, multi-culturalism spread from the remote offices to the head office. A local who wanted to climb hirer in the organization could only do so by transferring to the Head Office. Thus within an airline frequently you would find people of different cultures and countries of origin.

However the emergence of the Global Alliances has in effect ended this golden age of airline cultural exchange.

Now as each airline withdraws its ex-pat staffers back home and the local country staff are managed often by that country's local staff of the home airline – those days have come to an end. Now Germans serve United customers in Frankfurt, Air France people service Delta customers in Paris, and Japanese JAL employees service British Airways passengers.

From a customer service point of view – I see this as a very bad thing. How many times have I been told by an Air France person that my Delta status is worth nothing when it comes to a problem. And in the USA United personnel look at me as if I am from out of space when I try to use my LH credentials.

Overall I think this is sad that we are losing one of those little quirks of the airline business. It also means that an overseas posting is now unlikely for an airline manager. Thus I believe the airline business as a whole will lose some of its attraction to the brighter stars of the next generation. So Global Alliances homogenize everything to the lowest common denominator. What you get - if you like - is the airline equivalent of Beige Boxes. More Silos!

So farewell good people. And thanks for the ride. It has been a lot of fun.

Cheers

So OneWorld makes 3 across the Atlantic.

So the homogenization of the airline world is almost complete. With now more than 90% of the traffic across the Atlantic under the control of the 3 Alliances the airline world has become something of a boring place.

From a strategic perspective I believe that the creation of this risk sharing – mergers in all but name – alliances create as many issues as they solve. From a user’s perspective – IE the flyer, and as speaking as a frequent flyer, I cannot say that the rewards of the so called “seamless” experience are that great. Frankly I believe they are still a myth in the mind of the airline marketing departments. Let me illustrate this with a simple pair of examples from Star/Atlantic Alliance Plus:

Star Alliance – Transatlantic Alliance A++ AC,CO, LH UA. LH has first class as does UA. CO and AC do not. UA and CO have premium economy, AC and LH do not.

An itinerary NUE-FRA-YYZ-IAH-CCS-IAD-FRA-NUE should be (logically) possible all on A++ carriers and Transatlantic. Not so – the CCS legs are outside of the alliance and therefore have to be either added as a separate flight or as one ways. Any solution would up the price significantly.

I use these to illustrate the issue not to pick on Star/A++ specifically. I believe that the airlines have a long way to go to make the experience truly hassle free. However I think it is getting better. But it takes a very long time and the hype decidedly does not live up to the delivery. I hope that the regulators are paying close attention to the issue. When these alliances anti trust immunity comes up for renewal. I hope that they look at the issues for the customer. In my view the benefits to the customer should be considered as follows:

1. Better choice of schedules – ie more not less flights
2. Lower fares or at least no comparative increase in fares. I also think that the consideration of Frequent Flyer miles should be added to the equation, so that the currency of FF miles be considered as part of the cost equation.
3. Ease of use – to get from A to B should not be harder. Therefore in considering the value of an alliance – the customer issue of nonstop vs connections should also be considered. For example did the alliance reduce the number of nonstop routes in the broader market?
4. The hassle factor. Did the Alliance truly reduce the amount of trip hassle for the customer – of all types not just premium traffic.

If we are truly to regard this as a benefit then a truly objective and transparent mechanism for assessing Alliances should be put in place. I believe that players have the right to set their own standards in an open market. However when the marketplace is restricted to only 3 major players with such a large percentage of the market – then the standards of care and customer value must be put at a high premium. This includes the ability of the governments to force the players to undo their arrangements. Currently these standards are not in place and all that seems to have happened is a lot of talking without consumer consideration. Given how much money the airlines are going to make this year as a result of their oligopoly power – I think this should be a consideration. And with OneWorld now the third man in – we have to be very careful.

Cheers

Is Skype No Longer Real Time?

I think we all love Skype (if you are not a Skype user then you really should be!) But lately I have noticed that Skype is a little slow in delivering messages.

It used to be that Skype would hold a message if you were not logged on until you were there - then it would update. But lately I have noticed that some times it doesn't do this for DAYS!

I hope this is just an aberration because I really do love to use the application for leaving messages.

I would hate to see those chaps at eBay start to mess with Skype and that I have to defect to another service. The utility value of Skype I place WAY above Facebook and Linked in.

Cheers

Nexus One = Boat Anchor. What Lessons?

I like the nautical themes since I am at the seaside this week. As I type this I am listening to the sound of the Atlantic pounding some rocks.

Quietly on Apple's big iPhone day - Google pulled the plug on Nexus One. Here is an article from InfoWorld

Now I wonder what does this tell us about Google's ability to provide a consumer facing product? Is there a lesson for the Google/ITA acquisition?

Hmmm now that's a thought!

Cheers

A Free Case For Your (i4) Boat Anchor

Steve – aka the Dark Lord – has come out fighting on the issue of the iPhone 4’s er connection issue.

He says it has been blown out of proportion and that the media is to blame (sound like anyone else we know?).

Well Steve – this is life. Suck it up.

Apple has like almost every tech company – including many that I have been with – had its share of misfortunes. It is part of the way technology is. What works for some doesn’t work for others. Users expect computers to be infallible. To know the perfect answer. An iPhone is a work of beauty but it has to work as a basic function. Namely it has to work as a telephone. The issue of the antenna – which is among several other issues is that it needs to work normally. I believe from several iPhone 4 users I have spoken to – that the issue is sporadic. For one old time iPhone user – he explained he is as frustrated with the problem as when the iPhone 1 first came out and would disconnect in mid call when moving between towers. The Apple faithful have flamed me a few times for making an issue of the iPhone. Just the facts ma’am. For an empirical assessment of the iPhone from Consumer Reports which confirmed the issue – please visit their website.

I think the iPhone is a work of art and a marvelous thing. I hope Apple gets it right. My objection to it remains the business model and the fact that it is a license to print money. Given the money Apple is making from the iPhone – I believe they have an obligation to get it right.

So through the end of September you can have a case for your iPhone boat anchor. Hopefully after that the next batch will have a better antenna. I should point out that some analysts are reporting more issues with the iphone. But you can figure this stuff out for yourself.

Cheers